McDowall

An assessment of population growth drivers in McDowall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of McDowall is around 8,730, reflecting a growth of 1,118 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 14.7% rise from the previous population count of 7,612. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to McDowall by AreaSearch in June 2024 indicated a resident population of 8,283, with an additional 334 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 2,035 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. McDowall's growth rate exceeds that of both its SA4 region (8.6%) and the national average. Interstate migration contributed approximately 49.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data or years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are used. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings based on ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, population projections indicate a growth of 738 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 3.2% over the 17-year period. This expected growth is just below the median of Australian statistical areas.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees McDowall among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, McDowall averaged around 55 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 278 homes were approved, with a further 24 so far in FY26. On average, 2.2 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating healthy demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $565,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. This financial year has seen $1.6 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Brisbane, McDowall shows moderately higher development activity, 17.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New development consists of 12.0% standalone homes and 88.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 88.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 172 people per dwelling approval, McDowall shows characteristics of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, McDowall is expected to grow by 279 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

McDowall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence regional performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include McDowall Village Master Plan Redevelopment, Cabbage Tree Creek Bikeway (Hamilton Road to Old Northern Road), Cove McDowall, and Everton Park Urban Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in McDowall rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

McDowall has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 1.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 10.4%.

As of June 2025, 4,998 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.1% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation is high at 71.6%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area specializes in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Manufacturing is under-represented, at 3.8% compared to Greater Brisbane's 6.4%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 10.4%, and the labour force grew by 10.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment rise by 4.4% and unemployment fall by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to McDowall's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows McDowall had a median income of $62,978 and an average income of $75,833. Nationally, the median was $51,423 and the average was $70,572. In Greater Brisbane, these figures were $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 13.99%, median income in McDowall is estimated at $71,789 and average income at $86,442. Census 2021 data ranks McDowall's household, family, and personal incomes between the 83rd and 90th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 33.4% (2,915 individuals) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with metropolitan trends at 33.3%. Notably, 39.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

McDowall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

McDowall's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in McDowall stood at 36.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.4% and rented ones at 22.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Brisbane metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in McDowall was $470, compared to Brisbane metro's $430. Nationally, McDowall's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

McDowall features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.5% of all households, including 44.4% couples with children, 29.8% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for 16.5%, with lone person households at 14.1% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

McDowall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

McDowall has a higher educational attainment than Queensland (QLD) and Australia averages. 37.5% of McDowall residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 25.7% in QLD and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.8% of residents holding them – advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (19.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 6.4% in tertiary education. McDowall State School serves 1,003 students and focuses on primary education. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1119).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 22 active stops operating within McDowall, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 8 individual routes, offering 911 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 130 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 41 weekly trips per stop.

McDowall's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout McDowall.

Both young and old age cohorts saw low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~4,997 people). The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.5 and 7.3% of residents respectively. Seventy-one point seven percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.5% across Greater Brisbane. The area has fifteen point seven percent of residents aged 65 and over (1,370 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in McDowall was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McDowell, surveyed in 2016, had 24.7% of its population born overseas and 17.1% speaking a language other than English at home, both above Greater Brisbane's averages. Christianity was the dominant religion, with 59.4%, slightly higher than the regional average of 54.6%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (25%), English (25%), and Irish (9%).

Notably, Italian ancestry was overrepresented at 5.4% compared to the region's 3.8%, while South African (0.7%) and Hungarian (0.3%) ancestries were also more prevalent than the regional averages of 0.7% and 0.2% respectively.

McDowall's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

McDowall's median age is 38, which is slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 but equal to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group makes up 13.9% of McDowall's population compared to Greater Brisbane, while the 25-34 cohort constitutes 10.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 12.8% to 13.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 11.8% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in McDowall's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 group is expected to grow by 20%, adding 239 people and reaching a total of 1,427 from its current figure of 1,187. The aging population trend is evident with those aged 65 and above accounting for 55% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.