McDowall

An assessment of population growth drivers in McDowall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, McDowall's estimated population is around 8,723 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,111 people (14.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,612 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,287 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 334 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,033 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. McDowall's 14.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (9.0%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 49.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected. The McDowall SA2 is expected to grow by 738 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 3.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees McDowall among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, McDowall averaged approximately 55 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 278 homes were approved, with an additional 23 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 2.2 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed during these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes was $565,000, reflecting a focus on premium properties by developers. This year, there have been approximately $1.6 million in commercial approvals, highlighting the residential nature of the area. Compared to Greater Brisbane, McDowall exhibited moderately higher development activity, with 17.0% more approvals per person over the five-year period, maintaining diverse buyer choices while supporting existing property values. New developments consisted of 12.0% standalone homes and 88.0% attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands.

With around 172 people per dwelling approval, McDowall exhibits growth area characteristics. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to grow by approximately 286 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

McDowall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include McDowell Village Master Plan Redevelopment, Cabbage Tree Creek Bikeway (Hamilton Road to Old Northern Road), Cove McDowall, and Everton Park Urban Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in McDowall rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

McDowall has a highly educated workforce. Its professional services sector is well represented with an unemployment rate of 2.1%.

Over the past year, ending September 2025, estimated employment growth was 10.8% based on AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of that date, 5,189 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.9% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.0%. Workforce participation in McDowall was higher at 71.6%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. The leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training.

Notably, public administration & safety had an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing was under-represented with only 3.8% of McDowall's workforce compared to Greater Brisbane's 6.4%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 10.8%, while the labour force grew by 11.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points in McDowall. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment rise by 3.8% with a simultaneous decrease in unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. State-wide, Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs) between November 2024 and November 2025, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, closely aligned with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to McDowall's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch reports that in McDowall, median taxpayer income was $62,978 and average income was $75,833 in financial year 2023. These figures exceed Greater Brisbane's averages of $58,236 and $72,799 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $69,219 and average income $83,348, based on a 9.91% growth in wages since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data ranks McDowall's household, family, and personal incomes between the 83rd and 90th percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 33.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with broader metropolitan trends at 33.3%. Notably, 39.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of income, indicating strong purchasing power, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

McDowall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In McDowall, houses accounted for 87.7% of dwellings as per the latest Census, with other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and others making up the remaining 12.3%. This was higher than Brisbane's metropolitan average of 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in McDowall stood at 36.8%, with mortgaged properties at 40.4% and rented ones at 22.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, surpassing Brisbane's metro average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in McDowall was $470, higher than Brisbane's metro figure of $430. Nationally, McDowall's median mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

McDowall features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 83.5% of all households, including 44.4% couples with children, 29.8% couples without children, and 8.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 16.5%, with lone person households at 14.1% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

McDowall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

McDowall's educational attainment exceeds broader standards. Among residents aged 15+, 37.5% have university qualifications, compared to Queensland's 25.7% and Australia's 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.4%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 19.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 6.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 21 active stops operating in McDowall, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 8 routes, collectively enabling 911 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 230 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 130 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 43 weekly trips per individual stop.

McDowall's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout McDowall.

Both young and old age cohorts saw low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover was very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~4,993 people). The most common medical conditions in the area were mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.5 and 7.3% of residents respectively. Seventy-one point seven percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to seventy point five percent across Greater Brisbane. The area has fifteen point seven percent of residents aged sixty-five and over (1,369 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in McDowall was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McDowall's population shows higher-than-average cultural diversity, with 24.7% born overseas and 17.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in McDowall, accounting for 59.4%, compared to 54.6% across Greater Brisbane. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (25.0%), English (25.0%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Italian ethnicity is more prevalent in McDowall at 5.4% than regionally at 3.8%. South African ethnicity stands at 0.7% in both McDowall and the region. Hungarian ethnicity is slightly higher in McDowall at 0.3%, compared to 0.2% regionally.

McDowall's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

McDowall's median age is 38, which is slightly higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 but equal to Australia's median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.9% of McDowall's population, compared to Greater Brisbane's percentage. Meanwhile, the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.7% of McDowall's population. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.8% to 13.8% of McDowall's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in McDowall's age structure. Notably, the 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 20%, reaching 1,427 people from its current figure of 1,186. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 55% of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.