Carseldine

Population growth drivers in Carseldine are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carseldine's population, as of Nov 2025, is approximately 10,414. This figure represents an increase of 570 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,844. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,316 in June 2024 and an additional 320 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,288 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carseldine's growth rate of 5.8% since the census is within 2.8 percentage points of the SA4 region's 8.6%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, national areas are expected to have lower quartile growth, with Carseldine projected to grow by 542 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 4.3% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carseldine among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carseldine averaged approximately 63 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25316 homes were approved, with an additional 74 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.3 new residents arrived annually for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand dynamic.

The average construction value of new properties was $529,000. This year, $6.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Carseldine's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carseldine maintains similar development levels per capita, preserving market equilibrium with the broader area.

The current building activity comprises 72.0% detached dwellings and 28.0% attached dwellings, sustaining Carseldine's suburban identity with a focus on family homes. With around 141 people per approval, Carseldine demonstrates low-density development. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Carseldine is projected to gain 444 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand adequately, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Carseldine has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 24 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Carseldine Village - a 5-Star Green Star Community, Beams Road Upgrade from Lacey Road to Handford Road, and Carseldine Village Social and Affordable Housing Apartments. The following list details those of greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Carseldine significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Carseldine has an educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.6%, lower than the Greater Brisbane average of 4.1%.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 10.4%. As of June 2025, 5,635 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Greater Brisbane's rate. Workforce participation is lower than standard, at 60.7%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services.

Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 6.4%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 10.4%, while labour force increased by 10.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 4.4% with a decrease in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data for Queensland as of Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carseldine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Carseldine SA2's income level is above the national average according to AreaSearch data based on ATO figures for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Carseldine SA2 was $55,769 and the average income stood at $67,078. In comparison, Greater Brisbane's median and average incomes were $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes would be approximately $63,571 (median) and $76,462 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Carseldine cluster around the 63rd percentile nationally. Income distribution data indicates that 34.4% of the population (3,582 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 33.3% occupy this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carseldine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carseldine's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 68.4% houses and 31.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Brisbane metro's 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carseldine stood at 35.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 30.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Brisbane metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $440, compared to Brisbane metro's $2,000 and $430 respectively. Nationally, Carseldine's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carseldine has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.5% of all households, including 33.9% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Carseldine exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 34.1% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Queensland average of 25.7% and the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.8% and certificates for 18.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carseldine has 33 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 1590 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 231 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 227 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carseldine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carseldine faces notable health challenges with common conditions prevalent across age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52%, or around 5,456 people, compared to the Greater Brisbane average of 56.2%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.5% and 7.4% of residents respectively. About 68.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 70.5% across Greater Brisbane. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.6%, or 2,244 people, compared to the Greater Brisbane average of 16.6%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Carseldine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carseldine's population shows higher linguistic diversity than most local areas, with 24.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas, 33.3% of Carseldine residents were born outside Australia. Christianity is the dominant religion in Carseldine, accounting for 55.2%.

Hinduism, however, is more prevalent in Carseldine compared to Greater Brisbane, with 5.9% versus 4.5%. The top three parental ancestry groups are English (24.7%), Australian (20.1%), and Other (11.4%). Notably, Samoan ethnicity is overrepresented at 0.9%, Indian at 5.9%, and New Zealand at 1.0% compared to regional averages.

Carseldine's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Carseldine has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's figure of 38. The 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Carseldine at 7.9%, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 11.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 14.3% to 15.5% of the population. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 5.2% to 4.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carseldine's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 372 people (an 80% increase) from 464 to 837. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 64% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.