Carseldine
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Carseldine are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carseldine's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 10,412 people. This figure represents an increase of 568 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,844. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,316 in June 2024 and an additional 319 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a population density of 2,288 persons per square kilometer, above the national average according to AreaSearch's assessments. Carseldine's growth rate of 5.8% since the census places it within 2.5 percentage points of its SA4 region (8.3%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, using 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, Carseldine is expected to grow by approximately 542 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 4.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carseldine among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carseldine averaged approximately 63 new dwelling approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, it had 316 homes approved, with an additional 72 approved in FY-26 so far. Each year, around 1.3 new residents arrived per new home during the past five financial years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand situation, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties was $529,000. In FY-26, Carseldine registered $6.7 million in commercial approvals, reflecting its predominantly residential nature.

Compared to Greater Brisbane, Carseldine has similar development levels per capita, indicating consistent market balance with the broader area. Detached dwellings accounted for 72.0% of new building activity, and attached dwellings made up 28.0%, preserving the suburb's suburban identity and family home focus. With around 141 people per approval, Carseldine is considered a low-density area. By 2041, population forecasts suggest Carseldine will gain approximately 446 residents. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Carseldine has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 24 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Beams Road Level Crossing Removal & Overpass, Beams Road Upgrade (Lacey Road to Handford Road), Carseldine Village - 5-Star Green Star Community, and Carseldine Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Carseldine significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Carseldine has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.6% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 10.4% over the past year.

This is lower than Greater Brisbane's unemployment rate of 4.1%. The workforce participation rate in Carseldine was 60.7%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and professional & technical services. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 6.4%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 10.4%, while labour force increased by 10.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 4.4% with a decrease in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In Queensland as of Sep-25, employment contracted by 0.23% (losing 8,070 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.26% with an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carseldine's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Carseldine's median income among taxpayers was $55,769 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $67,078 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Brisbane's median and average incomes of $55,645 and $70,520 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.71% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $62,300 and an average income of around $74,933 as of March 2025. Census data indicates that incomes in Carseldine cluster around the 63rd percentile nationally. Distribution data shows that 34.4% of the population (3,581 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which is similar to the surrounding region where 33.3% occupy this bracket. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carseldine displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carseldine's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 68.4% houses and 31.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Brisbane metro's figures of 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carseldine stood at 35.7%, with mortgaged properties at 33.4% and rented dwellings at 30.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, aligning with Brisbane metro's average. The median weekly rent was recorded as $440, compared to Brisbane metro's figures of $2,000 for mortgage repayments and $430 for rents. Nationally, Carseldine's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Carseldine has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.5% of all households, including 33.9% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 10.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Carseldine exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 34.1% among residents aged 15+, which exceeds the Queensland average of 25.7% and the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 11.8% while certificates make up 18.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 5.9% pursuing tertiary education. However, educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carseldine has 33 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. Seven different bus routes service these stops, collectively facilitating 1,590 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 231 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 227 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 48 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carseldine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carseldine faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board but to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~5,455 people), leading that of the average SA2 area, compared to 56.2% across Greater Brisbane.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.5 and 7.4% of residents respectively, while 68.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.5% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,243 people), which is higher than the 16.6% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Carseldine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carseldine's population, as of a certain date, showed higher cultural diversity compared to most nearby areas. Specifically, 24.9% spoke languages other than English at home, and 33.3% were born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carseldine, making up 55.2% of its population.

Hinduism's representation was notably higher here, at 5.9%, compared to Greater Brisbane's average of 4.5%. The top three ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth were English (24.7%), Australian (20.1%), and Other (11.4%). Some ethnic groups had significant differences in representation: Samoan at 0.9% vs the regional average of 0.5%, Indian at 5.9% vs 4.3%, and New Zealand at 1.0% vs 0.9%.

Carseldine's median age exceeds the national pattern

Carseldine has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Brisbane average, Carseldine has an over-representation of the 75-84 age cohort (7.9% locally), while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented (11.7%). Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group grew from 14.3% to 15.5% of the population. Conversely, the 85+ cohort declined from 5.2% to 4.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Carseldine's age profile will evolve significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 372 people (an 80% increase) from 464 to 837. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 64% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.