McDowall

An assessment of population growth drivers in McDowall reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, McDowall's population is around 9,064 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,146 people (14.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,918 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,602 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 333 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,064 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. McDowall's 14.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (9.1%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 49.2% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence, where utilised, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 755 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 3.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees McDowall among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

McDowall has seen around 55 new homes approved annually, with 279 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 25 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.3 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $353,000. Additionally, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

When measured against Greater Brisbane, McDowall records somewhat elevated construction (13.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 12.0% detached dwellings and 88.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 86.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 185 people per dwelling approval, McDowall shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, McDowall is expected to grow by 293 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

McDowall has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the McDowall Village Master Plan Redevelopment, Cabbage Tree Creek Bikeway (Hamilton Road to Old Northern Road), Cove McDowall, and Everton Park Urban Village, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees McDowall performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

McDowall features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.1%, and 9.7% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,528 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.0% below Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (81.8% compared to Greater Brisbane's 71.2%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 24.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in public administration & safety, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Meanwhile, manufacturing has a limited presence with 3.7% employment compared to 6.4% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 9.7% while the labour force increased by 9.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Brisbane recorded employment growth of 3.2%, labour force growth of 3.0%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within McDowall. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to McDowall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the McDowall SA2's median income among taxpayers is $66,925, with an average of $81,243. This is extremely high nationally, and compares to Greater Brisbane's median of $58,236 and average of $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $73,557 (median) and $89,294 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in McDowall, between the 83rd and 89th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 33.7% of the population (3,054 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 33.3%. A significant 38.8% earn above $3,000 weekly, reflecting pockets of prosperity that drive robust local economic activity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

McDowall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within McDowall, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.7% houses and 14.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Brisbane metro's 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within McDowall was well beyond that of Brisbane metro, at 36.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (40.1%) or rented (23.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Brisbane metro average at $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460, compared to Brisbane metro's $1,863 and $380. Nationally, McDowall's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

McDowall features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 83.2% of all households, comprising 43.6% couples with children, 29.6% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 16.8%, with lone person households at 14.6% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

McDowall demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in McDowall significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 37.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 25.7% in QLD and 30.4% in Australia. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 24.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.3%) and graduate diplomas (4.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (19.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 6.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 23 active transport stops operating within McDowall, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 8 individual routes, collectively providing 911 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 229 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 87%, with 5% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 24.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 130 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop.

McDowall's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across McDowall, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Younger cohorts in particular see very low prevalence of common health conditions, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (5,429 people), compared to 55.8% across Greater Brisbane.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.6% and 7.4% of residents, respectively, while 71.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.2% across Greater Brisbane. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 16.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,452 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in McDowall was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

McDowall was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 25.0% of its population born overseas and 17.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in McDowall is Christianity, which makes up 59.5% of the population. This compares to 47.8% across Greater Brisbane.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in McDowall are English, comprising 24.9% of the population, Australian, comprising 24.8% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Italian is notably overrepresented at 5.4% of McDowall (vs 2.0% regionally), South Australian at 0.7% (vs 0.6%) and Samoan at 0.3% (vs 0.9%).

McDowall's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 38, McDowall is slightly older than the Greater Brisbane figure of 36, though equal to Australia's 38 years. The 45 - 54 age group shows strong representation at 13.8% compared to Greater Brisbane, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 10.4%. In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.4% to 5.5% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in McDowall's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 19% (237 people), reaching 1,489 from 1,251. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 52% of projected growth. On the other hand, the 15 to 24 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.