Carseldine

Population growth drivers in Carseldine are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Carseldine's population, as estimated based on ABS updates and AreaSearch validation, stands at approximately 10,698 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 605 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,093. The growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 10,600 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 308 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,219 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 6.0% since the census places it within 2.6 percentage points of the SA4 region (8.6%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023, based on 2021 data, are adopted. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; therefore, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 and based on 2022 data. Examining future population trends, lower quartile growth of Australian statistical areas is anticipated, with the suburb expected to grow by 550 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 4.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Carseldine among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Carseldine saw around 62 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 312 homes. As of FY-26, 70 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 new residents arrived per year per new home during this period.

The supply and demand dynamics appear stable. New dwellings were developed at an average cost of $514,000. In FY-26, $6.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered.

Carseldine maintains similar construction rates per person compared to Greater Brisbane, supporting market stability. Recent building activity shows 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting the area's suburban character focused on family homes. The population density is around 126 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Carseldine is expected to grow by 450 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Carseldine has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Carseldine Village, a 5-Star Green Star Community; Beams Road Upgrade from Lacey Road to Handford Road; and Carseldine Village - Social and Affordable Housing Apartments. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carseldine demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Carseldine has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.0% as of June 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 10.5% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 5,759 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Greater Brisbane's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Carseldine was somewhat below standard at 61.1%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. The key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Manufacturing, however, was under-represented with only 4.3% of Carseldine's workforce compared to 6.4% in Greater Brisbane. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 10.5%, while the labour force increased by 10.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 4.4% with a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insights into potential future demand within Carseldine. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local employment growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Carseldine's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Carseldine has a median taxpayer income of $55,651 and an average of $66,594 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is slightly above the national average, contrasting with Greater Brisbane's median income of $55,645 and average income of $70,520. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $63,437 (median) and $75,911 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that incomes in Carseldine cluster around the 64th percentile nationally. Distribution data indicates that 33.9% of the population (3,626 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 33.3% in the same category. Housing accounts for 14.1% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carseldine is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carseldine's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.4% houses and 28.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Brisbane metro had 77.8% houses and 22.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carseldine was at 35.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented ones at 28.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carseldine was $2,000, aligning with Brisbane metro's average, while the median weekly rent figure was $435, compared to Brisbane metro's $430. Nationally, Carseldine's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carseldine has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 75.6% of all households, including 35.8% couples with children, 28.2% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.7.

Carseldine demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 34.3% for residents aged 15+, exceeding the Queensland average of 25.7% and the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (3.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas comprise 11.7% and certificates make up 18.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.7% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carseldine has 31 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 1,590 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 241 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 227 trips per day, which equates to approximately 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carseldine is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carseldine faces significant health challenges with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent across all age groups but to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (around 5,733 people), compared to 56.2% across Greater Brisbane.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.3% and 7.3% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 68.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.5% across Greater Brisbane. The area has 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (around 2,289 people), which is higher than the 16.6% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Carseldine was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carseldine had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 25.3% of its population speaking languages other than English at home and 33.8% born overseas. The predominant religion was Christianity, accounting for 55.5%. Hinduism was notably overrepresented at 6.1%, compared to the Greater Brisbane average of 4.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (24.1%), Australian (20.0%), and Other (11.5%). There were also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnicities: Indian was overrepresented at 6.3% compared to the regional average of 4.3%, Samoan at 0.9% versus 0.5%, and New Zealand at 1.0% compared to 0.9%.

Carseldine hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Carseldine has a median age of 41, which is higher than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's figure of 38. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Carseldine at 8.0%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.3% to 12.4% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.6% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 9.6% to 9.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Carseldine's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 370 people (79%) from 470 to 841. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 64% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.