Capel

Population growth drivers in Capel are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

According to investigations of ABS demographics for the region, alongside new address records confirmed by AreaSearch post-Census, the suburb of Capel has an estimated population of approximately 2,763 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 157 residents (6.0%) relative to the 2021 Census, which registered 2,606 people. This shift is calculated from the local population of 2,760, estimated by AreaSearch using the ABS ERP release from June 2025 in combination with 13 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This level of occupancy translates to a density of 41 persons per square kilometer, indicating a spacious residential environment. The population expansion was driven by a balance of natural growth and migration trends.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024 (using 2022 as the base year) are utilized by AreaSearch for SA2 areas. For locations lacking this data, or to project expansion beyond 2032, growth dynamics by age cohort from the 2023 Greater Capital Region projections (based on 2022 records) are applied. In line with expected demographic patterns, the suburb of Capel is projected to experience above median growth for a non-metropolitan area, with an expected increase of 400 residents by 2041, representing a total expansion of 14.4% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Capel recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch evaluations of building approvals from regional statistical data indicate that the suburb of Capel averaged roughly 11 new home approvals annually. This includes 57 residential approvals over the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, alongside 12 approvals in the course of FY-26. A ratio of 2.2 new residents was added for each finished dwelling during the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, indicating healthy demand that bolsters residential valuations, with newly approved homes carrying an average construction value of $333,000.

Compared with the Rest of WA, the rate of residential approvals per capita in the suburb of Capel is approximately three-quarters, placing it in the 72nd percentile across the country, despite an acceleration in development of late. Additionally, new builds have consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining the low-density character of the locality and appealing to buyers seeking extra space. The suburb of Capel exhibits typical low-density features, with a ratio of 183 people per approved dwelling.

Long-term forecasts indicate the suburb of Capel will add 397 residents by 2041 according to the latest quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. While construction activity is keeping reasonable pace with this projected population growth, incoming buyers could face heightened competition as the local population increases.

Capel has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure projects and planning changes are major drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified no projects expected to influence the local area. Key regional projects of note include the Busselton Margaret River Airport Expansion, the City of Busselton Local Planning Scheme No. 22, the Bunbury Offshore Wind Project (North), and the South West Interconnected System Transformation, with the most relevant developments outlined in the list below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, Capel has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

The suburb of Capel supports a balanced workforce of blue-collar and white-collar employees, with the building sector showing notable representation, and an unemployment rate of just 3.2% based on aggregated regional statistics. In March 2026, there were 1,433 employed residents, with unemployment sitting 0.3% below the Regional WA average of 3.5%, and labor participation matching the Regional WA rate of 65.6%. Census figures indicate that a minor 6.4% of the workforce worked from home, though this may reflect the influence of pandemic restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The workforce shows a pronounced concentration in construction, with its employment share reaching 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, mining represents a minor segment, accounting for 8.3% of local employment compared to 11.7% across the region. Local job opportunities appear relatively constrained when comparing the Census working population against the resident labor force.

Based on statistical assessments of SALM and ABS figures for the broader region, the labor force expanded by 0.1% during the 12 months ending March 2026, while the number of employed residents decreased by 0.7%, resulting in a 0.7 percentage point increase in unemployment. This compares to Regional WA, which saw a 0.1% contraction in employment, a 0.3% increase in the labor force, and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Long-term employment trends can be contextualized via Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts from May-25. These five and ten-year national projections have been applied to local industries to model growth. Nationally, employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. Applying these trends to the local industry distribution suggests employment for the suburb of Capel could expand by 5.8% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighted extrapolation that does not account for specific local demographic projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Tax statistics from the ATO for financial year 2023 indicate that individual earnings in the suburb of Capel sit below the national average. The median taxpayer income is $50,033 and the average income is $62,712, compared to $59,973 and $74,392 respectively across Regional WA. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year 2023 yields estimated values of approximately $55,502 for the median and $69,566 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census confirms that household, family, and individual incomes are modest, falling between the 29th and 30th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 34.0% of the population (939 residents) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the regional average of 31.1% in this category. Housing affordability presents a major challenge, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, placing the area in the 30th percentile.

Capel is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Census data reveals that the local dwelling profile consists of 93.7% houses and 6.3% alternative dwellings like semi-detached properties and apartments, compared to Regional WA where houses make up 88.5% and alternative dwellings represent 11.6%. Home ownership rates in the suburb of Capel stand at 31.5%, slightly below the regional benchmark, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (48.9%) or occupied by tenants (19.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,498, which is lower than the Regional WA average of $1,560, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $320, compared to $265 across Regional WA. Nationally, mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are well below the national median of $375.

Capel has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Families make up the majority of local households at 73.9%, consisting of couples with children (28.2%), couples without children (30.9%), and single parents (13.6%). The remaining 26.1% are non-family households, which include lone person dwellings (23.6%) and group houses (3.4%). The median household size of 2.5 residents is identical to the Regional WA average.

Educational outcomes in Capel fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Educational attainment levels present a challenge, with the university qualification rate of 12.4% falling well below the national mark of 30.4%. This highlights key areas for educational development. Among those with tertiary qualifications, bachelor degrees represent 8.9%, followed by graduate diplomas at 2.2% and postgraduate degrees at 1.3%. Technical and trade credentials are common, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (8.2%) and certificates (33.5%).

Enrollment rates in education are high, with 29.6% of the population active in study. This includes 12.1% attending primary schools, 10.5% in secondary education, and 2.0% enrolled in tertiary programs.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in the suburb of Capel consist of 2 active stops served by bus routes. These stops accommodate 1 individual routes, which run a combined total of 11 weekly trips. Accessibility is low, with residents situated an average of 944 meters from their nearest transit point. Private vehicles are the primary mode of travel for commuters, with 92% driving to work. Household car ownership averages 1.7 vehicles. Working from home was recorded for a modest 6.4% of residents during the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

The average frequency of service is 1 trips daily per route, which translates to approximately 5 weekly trips at each active stop.

Health performance in Capel is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Assessments of mortality and chronic disease rates by AreaSearch point to health challenges for the suburb of Capel, with common medical conditions visible across both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is slightly above the SA2 average, covering approximately 52% of the population (~1,439 people), compared to 56.4% across Regional WA.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent diagnoses, affecting 11.6 and 9.7% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 62.5% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 69.3% in Regional WA. Chronic disease rates are elevated among the working-age demographic. Residents aged 65 and over make up 20.8% of the local population (574 people), which is higher than the regional proportion of 19.2%. Senior health metrics present challenges, with national percentiles exceeding those of the general local population.

Capel is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

The population shows lower cultural diversity relative to broader averages, with citizenship at 88.9%, Australian-born residents at 85.5%, and English-only speakers at home at 97.3%. Christianity is the largest religious group, representing 38.8% of the population. In terms of statistical deviation, Judaism comprises none of the population, matching the regional average of none.

English ancestry is the most common at 35.8%, followed by Australian at 32.6% and Scottish at 7.4%. There is an elevated presence of several other European backgrounds, with Welsh ancestry representing 0.9% of the population (compared to 0.6% regionally), Dutch at 2.5% (compared to 1.5%), and French at 0.8% (compared to 0.4%).

Capel's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age of 42 years in the suburb of Capel is slightly higher than the Regional WA average of 40 and older than the national median of 38 years. Compared to the wider region, the suburb of Capel has a higher proportion of residents in the 65 - 74 age bracket (12.5%) but fewer people aged 25 - 34 (11.3%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group increased from 9.8% to 11.3% of the population, whereas the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 15.1% to 13.6% and the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 15.0% to 13.5%. Demographic projections for 2041 suggest shifts in the age profile, led by a 48% expansion (148 people) in the 25 to 34 cohort, which is expected to rise from 312 to 461. Conversely, the 75 to 84 cohort is projected to decrease by 5 people.