Bargo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bargo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Bargo is around 4,807. This shows an increase of 291 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,516. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,710 in Jun 2024, based on ABS ERP data release and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 97 persons per square kilometer. Bargo's growth rate of 6.4% since the census is within 0.3 percentage points of the state's growth rate of 6.7%. Natural growth contributed approximately 55.00000000000001% to overall population gains recently, with other drivers also positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends anticipate lower quartile growth nationally, with Bargo expected to increase by 120 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 0.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bargo according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bargo has averaged approximately 22 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 114 homes. So far in FY-26, three approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were reported between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, recent data shows this has increased to 4.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Bargo's growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $515,000. Additionally, there have been $6.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Building activity shows 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Bargo's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 445 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Bargo is expected to grow by eight residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Bargo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two major projects that could impact the local area's performance. These include the Tahmoor South Coal Project and the Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation. Additionally, the Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line project is underway. The Wilton Growth Area - North Wilton Precinct is also planned for development.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Bargo shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Bargo has a diverse workforce that includes both white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector is particularly prominent in terms of employment representation, with an unemployment rate of 2.8% as of June 2025.

This rate is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, which was recorded at the same time. In the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 4.6%. AreaSearch data aggregation shows that there were 2,573 residents employed in Bargo as of June 2025, with a workforce participation rate matching Greater Sydney's figure of 60.0%. The majority of jobs in Bargo are concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Notably, the area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share that is 1.8 times higher than the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.0% of Bargo's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Analysis based on AreaSearch data for the wider area shows that over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 4.6%, while the labour force grew by 4.8%. This resulted in an unemployment rate increase of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a corresponding rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Looking ahead, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bargo's current employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years. These figures are based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Bargo had a median income among taxpayers of $51,127 and an average income of $62,434. These figures are lower than national averages, which stood at $56,994 and $80,856 respectively for Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates project median income to be approximately $57,574 and average income to be around $70,307 by September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Bargo rank modestly, between the 37th and 49th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income brackets show that 31.6% of Bargo's population (1,519 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bargo, with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bargo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Bargo, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 0% houses and 0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bargo stood at 36.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 17.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $0. Nationally, Bargo's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bargo features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.8 people

Family households constitute 77.0% of all households, including 34.7% couples with children, 29.7% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.0%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people.

Educational outcomes in Bargo fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (34.6%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, including primary education (11.7%), secondary education (8.7%), and tertiary education (2.6%).

The area has two schools, Bargo Public School and Wollondilly Anglican College, serving a total of 1,479 students. It has an ICSEA score of 1003, indicating balanced educational opportunities. There is one primary school and one K-12 school in the area. With 30.8 school places per 100 residents, the area demonstrates strong educational infrastructure supporting both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Bargo shows that there are currently 149 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. In total, these stops are serviced by 39 individual routes which collectively provide 2043 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 149 meters from their nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages at 291 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bargo is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bargo faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Approximately 52% (~2,482 people) of Bargo's total population has private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and asthma (8.7%). Conversely, 64.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Sydney overall. Bargo's senior population comprises 20.9% (1,004 people) of its residents. Seniors' health outcomes present challenges largely consistent with the general population's health profile.

Bargo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bargo's population shows low cultural diversity, with 87.9% born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 93.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 62.4%. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where no specific religion was reported.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.8%), English (29.4%), and Irish (7.2%). Notably, Maltese (2.4%) Hungarian (0.4%), and Macedonian (0.4%) communities are overrepresented compared to the regional average of none for each group.

Bargo hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Bargo's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bargo has a notably over-represented cohort of 65-74 year-olds at 10.8%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.3%. Post the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 12.2% to 13.8%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 6.6% to 7.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 13.6% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Bargo's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 144%, adding 166 residents to reach 282. Residents aged 65 and older represent 90% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 0-4 age groups.