Bargo

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bargo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Bargo's estimated population is around 4,877. This reflects an increase of 361 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,516. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,724 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 99 persons per square kilometer. Bargo's growth of 8.0% since the 2021 Census exceeded the state average of 7.6%. Natural growth contributed approximately 55.00000000000001% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase of 119 persons to 2041, reflecting a decrease of 1.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bargo, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Bargo averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 116 homes. As of FY-26, six approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.1 new residents per year was observed per dwelling constructed. However, recent data indicates this has increased to 5.3 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Bargo's growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $515,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $7.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Building activity shows 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Bargo's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 550 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Bargo may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Bargo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence this region: Tahmoor South Coal Project, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line, and Wilton Growth Area - North Wilton Precinct. The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Bargo demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Bargo has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.6% and estimated employment growth of 5.2% in the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025, there are 2,585 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 1.6%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 60.0%, similar to Greater Sydney. Employment is concentrated in construction (strongly specialized), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Professional & technical jobs are under-represented at 4.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data analysis. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 5.2%, while unemployment remained essentially unchanged (AreaSearch analysis). In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. State-wide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% to November 2025, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bargo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Bargo suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $51,127 with an average level of $62,434. This is lower than national averages which stood at $60,817 and $83,003 respectively for Greater Sydney. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ending June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,657 while average is projected at $67,966. From the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Bargo rank modestly with household income at the 37th percentile, family income at the 42nd percentile and personal income at the 49th percentile. Income distribution shows that 31.6% of individuals (1,541 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to broader area's 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 82.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. Bargo's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the fourth decile.

Bargo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Bargo, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 89.2% houses and 10.8% other dwellings including semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. The home ownership rate was 36.2%, with 46.2% of dwellings mortgaged and 17.6% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was $410. Nationally, Bargo's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bargo features high concentrations of family households, with a median household size of 2.8 people

Family households constitute 77.0% of all households, including 34.7% couples with children, 29.7% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.0%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people.

Educational outcomes in Bargo fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 34.6%. Educational participation is high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.7% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Bargo shows that there are currently 158 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 39 individual routes providing weekly passenger trips amounting to 2,054. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 148 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes stands at 293 trips per day, which translates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bargo is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bargo faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions. Only approximately 52% (~2,518 people) of Bargo's total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.4% of residents) and asthma (impacting 8.7%). A majority, 64.3%, report being completely free from medical ailments, which is higher than the 0% reported across Greater Sydney. Bargo has a sizeable senior population, with 20.9% (~1,019 people) aged 65 and over. The health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the broader population.

Bargo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bargo's population is predominantly Australian-born, with 87.9% born in Australia, and 92.8% being citizens. English is the primary language spoken at home by 93.7%. Christianity is the major religion, practiced by 62.4%, compared to None% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestral groups are Australian (31.8%), English (29.4%), and Irish (7.2%). Notably, Maltese people comprise 2.4% of Bargo's population, while Hungarian and Macedonian each make up 0.4%, compared to None% in the Greater Sydney region.

Bargo's median age exceeds the national pattern

Bargo's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Comparing with Greater Sydney, Bargo has a notably higher proportion of the 65-74 cohort (10.8% locally) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 12.2% to 13.8%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 6.6% to 7.7%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 15.0% to 14.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Bargo's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 141%, adding 164 residents to reach 282. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 92% of the population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 15-24 and 45-54 cohorts.