Picton (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Picton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the Census, Picton's estimated population was around 6,269 as of Feb 2026. This reflected an increase of 987 people (18.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,282 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 5,656 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and an additional 127 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 148 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Picton's growth rate exceeded both the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney during this period. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends projected an above median growth for the suburb, expecting it to expand by 1,335 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Picton among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Picton has averaged approximately 70 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 353 homes were approved in Picton, with a further 29 approved so far in FY-26. This equates to an average of about 2.5 people moving to the area per new home constructed over these five financial years.

The average construction cost value for new homes is approximately $335,000. In FY-26, $3.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating Picton's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Picton has 17.0% less new development per person than Greater Sydney but ranks among the 91st percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. The new building activity shows a mix of dwelling types: 68.0% detached dwellings and 32.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 90.0% houses) reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Picton exhibits characteristics of a growth area, with around 74 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Picton is expected to grow by approximately 722 residents through to 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections.

Picton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Wollondilly Cultural Precinct, Picton Bypass, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton High School Redevelopment. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Picton demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Picton has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.4% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.7%.

Residents' employment participation is high at 84.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. As of Census responses, 31.0% of residents worked from home. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has notably high concentration with levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.4%, compared to 11.5% regionally. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. From December 2024 to December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.7% and labour force grew by 7.2%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Picton's employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Picton's employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch released postcode level ATO data for Picton in financial year 2023. The suburb's median income among taxpayers was $64,317 and the average was $76,449. Nationally, this is above average. In Greater Sydney, the median was $60,817 and the average was $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 are approximately $70,015 (median) and $83,222 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Picton cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The predominant earnings cohort spans 32.3% of locals, with 2,024 people earning between $1,500 and $2,999. This aligns with the surrounding region at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident through 33.9% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Picton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Picton's dwelling structure at the latest Census comprised 90.0% houses and 10.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton stood at 32.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.2% and rented ones at 19.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Picton was $375, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Picton's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,383 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Picton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.3% of all households, including 39.3% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7 people.

Educational attainment in Picton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, with 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton has 131 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 58 individual routes, together providing 2,368 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 162 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to Picton's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 31% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 338 trips daily, equating to about 18 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to Picton's location centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Picton are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Picton's health indicators show below-average outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~3,581 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.8 and 8.5% of residents respectively. 67.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (965 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Picton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of the 2016 Census, 87.6% of Picton's population were born in Australia, with 93.3% being citizens and 95.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Picton, with 61.1%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups in Picton were English (31.5%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.7%). Notably, Serbian, Maltese, and Croatian ethnicities had the same representation in Picton as in the region, at 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively.

Picton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Picton is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.7%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the age group 35-44 has increased from 12.3% to 13.3%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.6% to 13.2%. By 2041, Picton's population is expected to shift significantly in age composition. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 59% (176 people), reaching 477 from 300. Conversely, the 0-4 age group is expected to decrease by 11 residents.