Picton (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Picton are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Picton's population is estimated at around 5,754 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 472 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,282. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,391 residents in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 136 persons per square kilometer. Picton's growth rate of 8.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average (7.1%) and Greater Sydney, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth, with the suburb expected to expand by 786 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 7.3% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Picton among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Picton averaged around 70 new dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 353 homes were approved, with a further 45 approved in FY-26 so far. This averages to approximately 1.4 new residents arriving per new home over the past five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $335,000. In FY-26, $3.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Picton's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton has 14.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 91st percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the area. The dwelling mix shows 68.0% detached dwellings and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and offering a range of housing alternatives. This is a notable shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (90.0%).

With around 70 people per dwelling approval, Picton exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Picton is expected to grow by 423 residents through to 2041. Current development patterns suggest that new housing supply should readily meet demand, presenting good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Picton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified six such projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable among these are Wollondilly Cultural Precinct, Picton Bypass, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton High School Redevelopment. The following list details those deemed most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Picton exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Picton has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of December 2025, 2,997 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation is 72.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 31.0% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction has notably high concentration with levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence at 5.4%, compared to the regional 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.7% and labour force by 2.2%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point unemployment rise. In Greater Sydney, employment rose by 2.2%, labour force grew by 2.3%, with marginal unemployment increase. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Picton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Picton suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $64,317 and an average of $76,449. This is higher than the national averages. Greater Sydney's median income was $60,817 with an average of $83,003 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth, current estimates for Picton as of March 2026 would be approximately $70,955 (median) and $84,339 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Picton cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 32.3% of locals, earning between $1,500 and $2,999 annually. This is similar to surrounding regions where this cohort represents 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 33.9% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000. Despite high housing costs consuming 15.5% of income, disposable income ranks at the 77th percentile nationally. Picton's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Picton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Picton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 90.0% houses and 10.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas which had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton stood at 32.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.2%) or rented (19.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Picton was recorded at $375, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Picton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Picton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.3% of all households, including 39.3% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Picton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has a lower university qualification rate of 20.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). A significant number of residents, 44.2% aged 15+, hold vocational credentials: advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high with 28.7% currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.1% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton has 131 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 58 individual routes, collectively providing 2,368 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 162 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 31.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 338 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Picton are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Picton's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Approximately 57% of Picton's total population (~3,287 people) has private health cover, compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 8.8 and 8.5% of residents respectively. 67.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. The area has 16.3% of residents aged 65 and over (937 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Picton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton's population showed low cultural diversity, with 87.6% born in Australia and 93.3% being citizens. English was the primary language spoken at home by 95.5%. Christianity dominated religiously, comprising 61.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.7%). Notably, Serbian, Maltese, and Croatian ethnicities maintained their regional percentages in Picton at 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively.

Picton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Picton is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, similar to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (12.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has increased from 4.1% to 5.4%. Meanwhile, the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 14.6% to 13.0%. By 2041, Picton's age composition is expected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 75-84 is projected to grow by 55%, reaching 483 people from the current 310. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 61% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 25-34 and 35-44.