Picton (NSW)

Picton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Picton's NSW population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 5,813 people. This figure reflects a growth of 531 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,282. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 5,520 residents following ABS ERP data analysis (June 2024) and an additional 130 validated new addresses post-Census date. This results in a density ratio of 137 persons per square kilometer. Picton's growth rate since the Census exceeded both state (6.7%) and metropolitan averages, driven primarily by interstate migration contributing approximately 65% of overall population gains. AreaSearch projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year.

For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Future trends forecast significant population growth by 2041, with the suburb expected to expand by 1,587 persons, reflecting a total gain of 30.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Picton among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Picton averaged around 67 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 335 homes were approved, with another 16 so far in FY-26. On average, 2.6 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed over these five years.

This robust demand supports property values, with new homes being built at an average expected construction cost of $335,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $2.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 82nd percentile nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence. New building activity comprises 69.0% detached dwellings and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This represents a change from the current housing mix of 90.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 127 people per dwelling approval, Picton shows characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Picton is expected to grow by 1,771 residents through to 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Picton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Wollondilly Cultural Precinct, Picton Bypass, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton High School Redevelopment. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Picton demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Picton has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in Picton is 3.4%, lower than the Greater Sydney rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.6%. As of June 2025, 3,410 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation in Picton is higher than Greater Sydney's, at 67.3% compared to 60.0%. Leading employment industries among Picton residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have a limited presence in Picton, with only 5.4% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.6%, while the labour force grew by 4.6%. Unemployment remained essentially unchanged during this period. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, the labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 provide insight into potential future demand within Picton. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Picton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Picton's median income among taxpayers is $64,317, with an average of $76,449. This is higher than the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Picton would be approximately $72,427 (median) and $86,089 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Picton are at the 74th percentile nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 32.3% of locals (1,877 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Economic strength is evident with 33.9% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 77th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Picton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Picton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.0% houses and 10.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's structure which was 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton stood at 32.3%, similar to Sydney metro's level, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.2%) or rented (19.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Picton was $2,383, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,318. The median weekly rent figure for Picton was recorded at $375, compared to Sydney metro's $415. Nationally, Picton's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable to the national figure of $375.

Picton features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 39.3% couples with children, 27.7% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 20.5% and group households at 1.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Picton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 20.3% significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is high at 28.7%, including 10.1% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education. Picton's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,880 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 987) with balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 32.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 11.1, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton has 115 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 58 routes providing a total of 2,349 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 163 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency is 335 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Picton are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Picton's health indicators show below-average results with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Approximately 57% (~3,320 people) of Picton's total population has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 53.8%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in Picton, affecting 8.8 and 8.5% of residents respectively. About 67.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 15.4% (895 people) of Picton's population is aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Sydney's 16.5%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Picton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton's population showed low cultural diversity, with 87.6% born in Australia, 93.3% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 61.1%, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 63.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.7%).

Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Serbian (0.5% vs regional 0.3%), Maltese (1.0% vs 2.3%), and Croatian (0.7% vs 0.7%) were relatively overrepresented in Picton compared to the region.

Picton's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Picton is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (12.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.9%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75-84 increased from 4.1% to 4.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 decreased from 14.6% to 13.7%. By 2041, Picton's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 34%, reaching 1,069 residents from the previous total of 796.