Elderslie - Narellan

Elderslie - Narellan lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Elderslie - Narellan's population is around 15,010 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 991 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,019. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,984 in June 2025 and an additional 179 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 980 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Elderslie - Narellan has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 55.2% during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected, with the area expected to grow by 2,909 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 19.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Elderslie - Narellan among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 395 homes. As of FY26, 42 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents per year have been associated with each home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that demand has exceeded supply. This imbalance typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers.

The average construction cost of new dwellings in the area is $258,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY26, there have been $1.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the residential nature of the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has shown elevated construction activity, with a 26.0% increase per person over the past five years. This has preserved reasonable buyer options while maintaining existing property demand, although development activity has somewhat moderated recently.

Recent construction in Elderslie-Narellan comprises 62.0% detached dwellings and 38.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the area's current housing composition (89.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with a growing need for diverse and affordable housing options. With approximately 404 people per dwelling approval, Elderslie-Narellan exhibits a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to grow by 2,883 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Elderslie - Narellan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Elderslie Estate by Mirvac, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Elderslie Release Area (Greater Macarthur Growth Area), and Elderslie Village Centre. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Elderslie - Narellan rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Elderslie-Narellan has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.9%.

As of this date, 8,928 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Elderslie-Narellan was 78.0%, higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 33.4% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction employment is particularly specialized, with a share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. While local jobs exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.9% while the labour force grew by 7.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.2% over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elderslie-Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2023 shows median income in Elderslie - Narellan SA2 at $63,930 and average income at $76,499. Comparing this to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 reveals Elderslie - Narellan has higher incomes. Applying Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes are approximately $70,528 (median) and $84,394 (average). Census 2021 data shows Elderslie - Narellan's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution analysis indicates 33.7% of residents earn between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, aligning with regional levels at 30.9%. Notably, 31.9% earn over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Elderslie - Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Elderslie-Narellan's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elderslie-Narellan stood at 25.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (47.1%) or rented (27.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while median weekly rent was $450, compared to Sydney metro's figures of $2,427 and $470 respectively. Nationally, Elderslie-Narellan's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elderslie - Narellan features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.8% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households making up 1.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Elderslie - Narellan aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (28.6%). Educational participation is high at 31.2%, with 11.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elderslie-Narellan has 108 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are used by 99 individual routes, providing 4267 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 240 meters to the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward from this residential area, with cars being the dominant mode at 94%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 33.4% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

There is an average service frequency of 609 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

The level of general health in Elderslie - Narellan is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Elderslie-Narellan demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment in June 2021. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among its general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts.

The area has a very high rate of private health cover, approximately 57% of the total population (around 8,555 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.0 and 7.9% of residents respectively. Around 70.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 15.1% of residents aged 65 and over (around 2,271 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Elderslie - Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elderslie-Narellan had a cultural diversity below average, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia and 92.6% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 89.2%. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 64.2%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australian was highest at 27.9%, substantially more than the regional average of 17.8%. English followed at 26.8%, higher than the regional average of 19.0%. Other ancestry made up 7.4%, notably lower than the regional average of 16.0%. Maltese was notably overrepresented at 1.8% compared to 1.0% regionally, as were Serbian at 0.6% versus 0.5% and Italian at 5.4% versus 3.4%.

Elderslie - Narellan hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.6%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75-84 age group grew from 3.8% to 5.5%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 12.7% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 13.6% to 11.6%, and the 0-4 group dropped from 8.1% to 6.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Elderslie-Narellan. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 71%, adding 589 residents to reach 1,415. In contrast, populations aged 0-4 and 5-14 are forecasted to decline.