Elderslie - Narellan

Elderslie - Narellan lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Elderslie - Narellan's population is approximately 14,626 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 607 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,019. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,666 in June 2024 and an additional 168 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 955 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Elderslie - Narellan has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%, exceeding the SA3 area's growth rate. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for national statistical areas. The area is projected to grow by 3,178 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 22.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Elderslie - Narellan among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Elderslie - Narellan has averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 395 homes. As of FY26 so far, 33 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents per year are associated with each home built during this period. This demand outpaces supply, potentially influencing prices and buyer competition.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $258,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY26, there have been $1.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie - Narellan has recorded somewhat elevated construction activity, with 27.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, although development activity has moderated in recent periods.

Recent construction comprises 62.0% detached dwellings and 38.0% medium to high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more compact options. This shift indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 404 people per dwelling approval, Elderslie - Narellan demonstrates a developed market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects a growth of 3,218 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Elderslie - Narellan has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Mirvac's Elderslie Estate, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Elderslie Release Area within the Greater Macarthur Growth Area, and Elderslie Village Centre (proposed neighbourhood centre). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Elderslie - Narellan ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Elderslie - Narellan has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.5% as of September 2021, and employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.1%.

As of September 2025, 8,733 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Elderslie - Narellan is high at 67.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a significant employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents appear to commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% and labour force grew by 5.2%, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 1.7%. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1%, labour force expand by 2.4%, and unemployment rise to 4.2%. As of 25-Nov-2025, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elderslie - Narellan's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Elderslie - Narellan SA2 is above average nationally. The median income is $59,754 and the average income stands at $72,498. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Elderslie - Narellan would be approximately $67,289 (median) and $81,640 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Elderslie - Narellan are at the 74th percentile nationally. The largest income segment comprises 33.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, with 4,928 residents falling into this category. This aligns with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. Notably, 31.9% of the population earns over $3,000 per week, indicating affluence and supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Elderslie - Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Elderslie - Narellan, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elderslie - Narellan was at 25.2%, with the rest either mortgaged (47.1%) or rented (27.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Elderslie - Narellan's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elderslie - Narellan features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.8% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households at 1.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational attainment in Elderslie - Narellan aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 28.6%. Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 88 active transport stops operating in Elderslie - Narellan area. These are served by buses via 100 individual routes, collectively offering 3641 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 240 meters from nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 520 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per stop.

Elderslie - Narellan's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Elderslie - Narellan residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population, though higher than national averages for older, at-risk groups.

Approximately 55% (~8,088 people) have private health cover, the highest rate in the area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and mental health issues (7.9%), with 70.5% of residents reporting no medical ailments compared to 71.6% across Greater Sydney. Elderslie - Narellan has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 14.4% (2,111 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 12.9%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Elderslie - Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elderslie-Narellan had a cultural diversity level below average, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 64.2%, compared to 64.3% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (27.9%), English (26.8%), and Other (7.4%).

Notably, Maltese, Serbian, and Italian ethnicities had higher representations than the regional averages: Maltese at 1.8%, Serbian at 0.6%, and Italian at 5.4%.

Elderslie - Narellan hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 3.8% to 5.2%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 13.6% to 11.9%. By 2041, forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Elderslie-Narellan. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 86%, adding 654 residents to reach a total of 1,418. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts.