Elderslie - Narellan
Statistical Area - sa2

Elderslie - Narellan lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Elderslie - Narellan's population is 14,629 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 14,019 people. The rise was inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 14,666 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since then. Population density is 955 persons per square kilometer. Over a decade, the area grew at a compound annual rate of 4.6%, outpacing its SA3 region. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.1% to recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 3,178 persons, an increase of 22.0% over 17 years, indicating above median growth.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Elderslie - Narellan among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Elderslie - Narellan averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 395 homes. As of FY26, 23 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built between FY21 and FY25 attracted 3.6 new residents per year, indicating significant demand outpacing supply. The average construction value for new dwellings was $635,000.

This financial year has seen $1.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie - Narellan recorded 27.0% higher construction activity per person over the past five years, offering reasonable buyer options while sustaining demand. Recent construction comprises 62.0% detached dwellings and 38.0% medium and high-density housing, diversifying from the existing 89.0% houses. There are approximately 404 people per dwelling approval in Elderslie - Narellan, indicating a developed market.

By 2041, Elderslie - Narellan is expected to grow by 3,215 residents, with current development well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Elderslie - Narellan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could affect the region. Notable projects include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Campbell & Hart, New Residential Development (Narellan and Surrounds), and Project Narellan Vision and Action Plan. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Elderslie - Narellan ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Elderslie - Narellan has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 5.0% over the past year.

In June 2025, 8,685 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.8%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate was 67.2%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employment is particularly high, at 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 5.8% of Elderslie - Narellan's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, labour force grew by 4.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Statewide in NSW, employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) as of Sep-25, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elderslie - Narellan's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 2022 shows median income in Elderslie - Narellan was $59,754. Average income stood at $72,498. In Greater Sydney, median income was $56,994 and average income was $80,856. Using Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since June 2022, estimated median income as of March 2025 is approximately $66,088 and average income is around $80,183. Census 2021 data indicates incomes in Elderslie - Narellan cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows 33.7% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (4,929 residents), aligning with regional levels at 30.9%. The area demonstrates affluence with 31.9% earning over $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Elderslie - Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elderslie-Narellan's dwellings were 88.9% houses and 11.1% other types at the latest Census, compared to Sydney metro's 92.7% houses and 7.3% others. Home ownership in Elderslie-Narellan was 25.2%, similar to Sydney metro. Mortgaged dwellings were 47.1% and rented ones were 27.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, above Sydney metro's $2,383. Median weekly rent in Elderslie-Narellan was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Elderslie-Narellan's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,427 versus Australia's average of $1,863. Rents were also higher at $450 compared to the national figure of $375.

Elderslie - Narellan features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.8% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 19.2%, comprising 17.5% lone person households and 1.7% group households. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational attainment in Elderslie - Narellan aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Elderslie-Narellan faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (28.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.2% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (11.9%), secondary (8.7%), and tertiary (3.7%). Elderslie-Narellan's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,168 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1000) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elderslie-Narellan has 88 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 100 different routes that together facilitate 3,641 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents on average located 240 meters from the nearest stop.

Buses run an average of 520 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elderslie - Narellan's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Elderslie - Narellan health data shows relatively positive results.

The prevalence of common health conditions among residents is low but higher than the national average for older, at-risk groups. Approximately 55% (~8,089 people) have private health cover, which is very high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.0% of residents) and mental health issues (7.9%). Around 70.5% declare no medical ailments, compared to 71.6% in Greater Sydney. Elderslie - Narellan has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.4% (2,112 people), compared to 12.9% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Elderslie - Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elderslie-Narellan had a cultural diversity index below average, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 64.2%, similar to Greater Sydney's 64.3%. Ancestry-wise, Australian (27.9%), English (26.8%), and Other (7.4%) were the top groups.

Notably, Maltese (1.8% vs regional 1.8%), Serbian (0.6% vs 0.5%), and Italian (5.4% vs 4.7%) groups showed higher representation than average.

Elderslie - Narellan hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 3.8% to 5.2%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 13.6% to 11.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Elderslie-Narellan, with the 75-84 age cohort projected to grow by 86%, adding 654 residents to reach a total of 1,418. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts.