Elderslie - Narellan
Statistical Area - sa2

Elderslie - Narellan lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Elderslie - Narellan's population is approximately 14,629 as of August 2025. This figure indicates a rise of 610 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,019. The increase is estimated from ABS data showing an resident population of 14,666 in June 2024 and 169 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 955 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Elderslie - Narellan has shown consistent growth with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%, exceeding that of its SA3 area. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.1% to overall population gains recently, though all factors including overseas and interstate migration were positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using 2021 as the base year are applied. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are used for all areas until 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Elderslie - Narellan is expected to have above median population growth, reaching a total of 3,178 persons by 2041, an increase of 22.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Elderslie - Narellan among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 395 homes. As of FY26, 23 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents per year are associated with each home built during this period. This demand significantly outpaces supply, potentially influencing prices and competition among buyers.

The average construction value of new dwellings is $635,000, higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development. In FY26, there have been $1.8 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the residential nature of the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has a relatively high construction rate, 27.0% above the regional average per person over five years. This maintains reasonable buyer options while sustaining property demand.

However, development activity has moderated recently. The current housing mix comprises 62.0% detached dwellings and 38.0% medium to high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 89.0% houses) indicates decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. With approximately 404 people per dwelling approval, Elderslie-Narellan exhibits a developed market. Future projections indicate a growth of around 3,215 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-aligned with future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Elderslie - Narellan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Thirty-two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Elderslie Estate by Mirvac, Elderslie Village Centre (Proposed Neighbourhood Centre), and Elderslie Release Area (Greater Macarthur Growth Area). The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elderslie - Narellan ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Elderslie - Narellan has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.4% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.0%. In June 2025, 8,685 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 67.2%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include construction, healthcare & social assistance, and education & training. The area has a significant specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 5.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, labour force grew by 4.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and an increase in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elderslie - Narellan's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Elderslie - Narellan at $59,754 and average income at $72,498. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, with a 12.61% increase based on the Wage Price Index, estimated incomes would be approximately $67,289 (median) and $81,640 (average). Census 2021 data shows Elderslie - Narellan's incomes cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The largest income segment is 33.7% earning between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, with 4,929 residents in this category. This aligns with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. Notably, 31.9% earn over $3,000 per week, indicating affluence that supports premium retail and services. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Elderslie - Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elderslie - Narellan dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elderslie - Narellan was 25.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.1% and rented ones at 27.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,427, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,383. Median weekly rent in Elderslie - Narellan was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Elderslie - Narellan's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,427 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elderslie - Narellan features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.8% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational attainment in Elderslie - Narellan aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 21.0%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (28.6%).

Educational participation is high at 31.2%, comprising 11.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education. Elderslie-Narellan's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,168 students, indicating typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1000) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elderslie-Narellan has 88 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 100 different routes, offering a total of 3641 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 240 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 520 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Elderslie - Narellan's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Elderslie - Narellan health data shows a relatively positive picture.

The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 55% (~8,089 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is very high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.9% of residents respectively. About 70.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.6% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 14.4% (2,112 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, which is higher than the 12.9% in Greater Sydney. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population, overall data indicates a relatively positive health status for Elderslie - Narellan residents.

Elderslie - Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elderslie-Narellan had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 64.2%, similar to Greater Sydney's 64.3%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (27.9%), English (26.8%), and Other (7.4%).

Notable differences included Maltese (1.8% vs regional 1.8%), Serbian (0.6% vs 0.5%), and Italian (5.4% vs 4.7%) populations in Elderslie-Narellan.

Elderslie - Narellan hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 grew from 3.8% to 5.2%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 decreased from 13.6% to 11.9%. By 2041, Elderslie-Narellan's population is forecasted to undergo significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 86%, adding 654 residents to reach a total of 1,418. In contrast, populations aged 5-14 and 0-4 are forecasted to decline.