Elderslie - Narellan

Elderslie - Narellan lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Elderslie - Narellan's population is around 14,715 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 696 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,019 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,666 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 175 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 961 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Elderslie - Narellan has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 4.6% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 67.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the area expected to grow by 3,178 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 21.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Elderslie - Narellan among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Elderslie - Narellan has experienced around 79 dwellings receiving development approval each year, with 395 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 36 so far in FY-26. At an average of 3.6 new residents per year for every home built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition, leading to pricing pressures, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $258,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $1.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie - Narellan records somewhat elevated construction (27.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, though building activity has slowed in recent years. New development consists of 62.0% detached houses and 38.0% attached dwellings, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 89.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. At around 404 people per approval, Elderslie - Narellan indicates a mature market.

Population forecasts indicate Elderslie - Narellan will gain 3,129 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Existing development levels seem aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Elderslie - Narellan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 32 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Elderslie Estate by Mirvac, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Elderslie Release Area (Greater Macarthur Growth Area), and Elderslie Village Centre, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Elderslie - Narellan performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Elderslie - Narellan features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.4%, and 6.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,928 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (79.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 33.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area has particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.8% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.9% and the labour force increased by 7.1%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Elderslie - Narellan. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Elderslie - Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Elderslie - Narellan SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $63,930 and an average of $76,499 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is high nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $69,594 (median) and $83,277 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Elderslie - Narellan cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows 33.7% of the population (4,958 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 30.9% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 31.9% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 74th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Elderslie - Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Elderslie - Narellan, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Elderslie - Narellan was lower than that of Sydney metro, at 25.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (47.1%) or rented (27.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Sydney metro average at $2,427, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $450, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Elderslie - Narellan's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elderslie - Narellan features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 80.8% of all households, comprising 42.3% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Elderslie - Narellan aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (21.0%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (28.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 108 active transport stops operating within Elderslie - Narellan, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 99 individual routes, collectively providing 4,267 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 240 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 33.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 609 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

The level of general health in Elderslie - Narellan is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Elderslie - Narellan demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~8,387 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.0% and 7.9% of residents, respectively, while 70.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 15.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,252 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Elderslie - Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elderslie - Narellan was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Elderslie - Narellan is Christianity, which makes up 64.2% of the population. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Elderslie - Narellan are Australian, comprising 27.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, English, comprising 26.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, and Other, comprising 7.4% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 16.0%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 1.8% of Elderslie - Narellan (vs 1.0% regionally), Serbian at 0.6% (vs 0.5%) and Italian at 5.4% (vs 3.4%).

Elderslie - Narellan hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

At 34 years, Elderslie - Narellan's median age is somewhat lower than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and similarly considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, Elderslie - Narellan has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (14.9%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (11.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 3.8% to 5.5% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 12.7% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 11.4% and the 0 to 4 group dropped from 8.1% to 6.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Elderslie - Narellan. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 33%, adding 608 residents to reach 2,455. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts.