Elderslie - Narellan

Elderslie - Narellan lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Elderslie - Narellan's population is 14,683 as of November 2025. Between the 2021 Census and this date, there has been an increase of 664 people (4.7%), reflecting a population of 14,019 in 2021. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,666 as of June 2024 and an additional 168 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 959 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Elderslie - Narellan has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6%, outpacing its SA3 area. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, though all drivers including overseas and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected, with the area projected to grow by 3,178 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 21.5% over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Elderslie - Narellan among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan averaged approximately 79 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 395 homes. As of FY26, 36 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents were associated with each home built between FY21 and FY25. This indicates that demand significantly outpaces supply, typically exerting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings was $258,000, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY26, there have been $1.8 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan records elevated construction activity, at 27.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, although development activity has moderated recently.

Recent construction comprises 62.0% detached dwellings and 38.0% medium to high-density housing, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to more compact, accessible options. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 89.0% houses. With approximately 404 people per dwelling approval, Elderslie-Narellan exhibits a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by around 3,161 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Elderslie - Narellan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Elderslie Estate by Mirvac, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Elderslie Release Area (Greater Macarthur Growth Area), and Elderslie Village Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Elderslie - Narellan ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Elderslie - Narellan has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.5% as of September 2021. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.1%.

As of September 2025, 8,733 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Elderslie - Narellan was 78.5%, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 33.4% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Construction is particularly specialized in the area, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1% and labour force grew by 5.2%, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 1.7%. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.1%, labour force expanded by 2.4%, and unemployment rose to 4.4%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elderslie - Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.3% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, although this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Elderslie - Narellan SA2 had a median income of $63,930 and an average income of $76,499. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, the estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $69,594, with an average income of around $83,277. Census 2021 data indicates that incomes in Elderslie - Narellan cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. The largest income segment comprises 33.7% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with 4,948 residents falling into this category. This aligns with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. Notably, 31.9% of residents earn over $3,000 per week, indicating significant affluence in the area. Despite high housing costs consuming 17.7% of income, Elderslie - Narellan's disposable income still ranks at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Elderslie - Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Elderslie - Narellan's dwellings were 88.9% houses and 11.1% other dwellings in the latest Census, compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elderslie - Narellan was 25.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.1% and rented ones at 27.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, aligning with Sydney metro's average. Median weekly rent was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Elderslie - Narellan's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Elderslie - Narellan features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 80.8% of all households, including 42.3% couples with children, 23.5% couples without children, and 14.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 19.2%, with lone person households at 17.5% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Elderslie - Narellan aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 11.5% and certificates make up 28.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary (11.9%), secondary (8.7%) and tertiary (3.7%) levels.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Elderslie - Narellan indicates that there are 108 active transport stops operating in the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 99 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 4,267 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 240 meters from the nearest transport stop. As the area is primarily residential, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transport remains the car, used by 94% of residents.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 33.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 609 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 39 weekly trips per individual stop. An accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

The level of general health in Elderslie - Narellan is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Elderslie-Narellan shows better-than-average health outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low in the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is very high, with approximately 57% of the total population (~8,369 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.0% and 7.9% of residents respectively, while 70.5% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are generally typical. The area has 14.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,120 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Elderslie - Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elderslie-Narellan had a cultural diversity index below average, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 64.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. Ancestry-wise, Australian heritage led with 27.9%, substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, followed by English at 26.8% (higher than the regional average of 19.0%) and Other at 7.4% (notably lower than the regional average of 16.0%).

Notably, Maltese ancestry was overrepresented at 1.8% compared to the region's 1.0%, Serbian at 0.6% versus 0.5%, and Italian at 5.4% against the regional 3.4%.

Elderslie - Narellan hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Elderslie-Narellan's median age is 34 years, lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Elderslie-Narellan has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 3.8% to 5.2%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 13.6% to 11.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Elderslie-Narellan. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 85%, adding 651 residents to reach a total of 1,418. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts.