Bargo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bargo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bargo's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 6,266. This figure represents an increase of 332 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 5,934. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 6,148 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 92 persons per square kilometer. Bargo's growth rate of 5.6% since the Census places it close to the state average of 6.4%. Natural growth contributed approximately 54.9% of overall population gains recently, with other factors such as interstate and overseas migration also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with the area expected to increase by 83 persons to 2041 based on current numbers, reflecting a decline of 0.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bargo, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bargo has received approximately 21 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 106 approvals from FY-20 to FY-25 and one recorded in FY-26. Over the past five financial years (FY-20 to FY-25), an average of 1.1 people moved to the area per dwelling built. However, this figure has increased to 5.2 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. The average construction value for development projects is $515,000.

In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $8.1 million, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to Greater Sydney, where Bargo has 74.0% less development activity per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. As of now, there are an estimated 585 people in Bargo per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, pressure on housing is likely to be reduced, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Bargo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. One major project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this region. Key projects include Maldon-Dombarton Rail Corridor, Picton Road Safety And Capacity, Illawarra Offshore Wind Area, and Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct. These are likely the most relevant projects for the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Bargo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Bargo has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with an unemployment rate of 2.9% and estimated employment growth of 4.7% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 3,497 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.0% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.7%, labour force by 4.9%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment rate is 4.5%, with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Bargo. These projections estimate local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Bargo's median taxpayer income was $52,574, with an average of $64,201, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. These figures are comparable to national averages, differing from Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on a 10.6% increase in wages since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $58,147 and the average around $71,006 by March 2025. The 2021 Census data places Bargo's household, family, and personal incomes modestly between the 41st and 56th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 31.8% of locals (1,992 people) fall into the $1,500-$2,999 category, similar to the broader area's pattern where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 55th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Bargo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Bargo, as recorded at the latest Census, consisted of 91.3% houses and 8.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas which had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bargo was at 35.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.3%) or rented (16.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,318. The median weekly rent figure in Bargo was recorded at $415, which is the same as Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Bargo's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Bargo features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 78.3 percent of all households, including 37.6 percent couples with children, 28.8 percent couples without children, and 11.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 21.7 percent, with lone person households at 20.4 percent and group households making up 1.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Bargo fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 12.7%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 34.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education. Bargo's 3 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,514 students as of the latest data. The area functions as an education hub with 24.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 11.6. This attracts students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Bargo shows that there are currently 204 operational transport stops. These include a combination of train and bus services. There are 39 different routes servicing these stops, which together facilitate approximately 2,043 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to transport in the area is considered excellent, with residents on average being located just 158 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are about 291 trips made per day across all routes, equating to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bargo is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bargo faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover in Bargo is approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area (~3,252 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.0%) and asthma (8.5%). Sixty-five point two percent of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. Nineteen point seven percent of residents are aged 65 and over (1,233 people), higher than the 16.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Bargo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bargo had a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 94.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bargo, accounting for 63.1% of the population, similar to Greater Sydney's 63.0%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.7%), English (29.0%), and Irish (7.0%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 2.7%, compared to the regional figure of 2.3%. Hungarian and Macedonian populations also showed higher representation in Bargo, at 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 0.2%.

Bargo's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Bargo is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney's average, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Bargo at 10.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.8% to 14.2% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 6.0% to 7.1%, while the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 14.6% to 13.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Bargo's age profile will change significantly, with the 85+ age cohort projected to surge dramatically from 127 to 305 people, an increase of 177 (140%). Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 87% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.