Bargo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bargo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bargo's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 6,278. This figure represents an increase of 344 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,934. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,148 in June 2024 and an additional 52 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 92 persons per square kilometer. Bargo's growth rate of 5.8% since the Census places it close to the state average of 6.7%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 54.9% of overall population gains, with all drivers including interstate and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to increase by 83 persons to 2041 based on the latest numbers, reflecting a decline of 0.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bargo, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bargo has received approximately 26 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 131 homes. As of FY-26, three approvals have been recorded. On average, each new dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodated about 1.1 new residents per year. However, this figure has increased to 5.2 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating Bargo's growing popularity. The average construction cost of new properties is $369,000.

This financial year, commercial approvals amounted to $8.1 million, reflecting Bargo's predominantly residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bargo has significantly less development activity, with 72.0% fewer approvals per person. The area's recent construction comprises 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low density character. As of now, there are an estimated 585 people in the area for each dwelling approval.

Given the expected stability or decline in population, Bargo may experience reduced pressure on housing, potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Bargo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Tahmoor South Coal Project, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, and Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line.

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Employment conditions in Bargo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Bargo has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.9% and estimated employment growth of 4.7% in the past year as of June 2025.

There are 3,497 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly high at 1.8 times the regional level, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 4.0% compared to the regional average of 11.5%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.7%, labour force grew by 4.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) suggest national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bargo's employment mix indicates local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Bargo's median taxpayer income was $52,574 and average income was $64,201 according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This aligns with national averages but differs from Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $59,204 and average income $72,297 based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. In Bargo, household incomes ranked between the 41st and 56th percentiles according to 2021 Census figures. The predominant income cohort spans 31.8% of locals (1,996 people) in the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to broader area patterns where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 55th percentile and Bargo's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Bargo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Bargo with 91.3% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bargo was at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.3% and rented ones at 16.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bargo was $2,167, below Sydney metro's average of $2,318. The median weekly rent figure in Bargo was $415, matching Sydney metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Bargo's median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly higher at $2,167 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Bargo features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 78.3% of all households, including 37.6% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 20.4% and group households making up 1.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Bargo fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (34.5%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, comprising primary education (11.4%), secondary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (2.4%).

Bargo's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,514 students, serving typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 980). The area functions as an education hub with 24.2 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities compared to the regional average of 11.4.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bargo has 204 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 39 individual routes that together facilitate 2,043 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 291 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bargo is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bargo faces significant health challenges.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover in Bargo is approximately 52%, leading that of the average SA2 area. This covers around 3,258 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. 65.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. As of 2019, 19.7% of Bargo's residents are aged 65 and over, totaling 1,235 people. This is higher than the 16.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Bargo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bargo has a low cultural diversity, with 88.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 94.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bargo, comprising 63.1% of people, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 63.0%. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.7%), English (29.0%), and Irish (7.0%).

Notably, Maltese (2.7%) and Hungarian (0.5%) populations in Bargo exceed their regional counterparts by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Macedonian representation is also higher at 0.4%.

Bargo's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Bargo has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bargo has a notably higher proportion of the 65-74 age cohort (10.6% locally), while it has fewer people aged 25-34 (9.5%). Between 2021 and present, the population of those aged 15-24 has grown from 12.8% to 14.2%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 6.0% to 7.1%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 5-14 has decreased from 14.6% to 13.8%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Bargo's age profile. The number of people aged 85 and above is projected to increase by 177 (139%) from 127 to 305. Notably, the combined population growth of those aged 65 and above will account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting Bargo's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, projections indicate that the populations of those aged 45-54 and 0-4 are expected to decline.