Bargo
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bargo reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bargo's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 6,266 by August 2025. This figure represents a rise of 332 individuals, marking a 5.6% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,934. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,148 in June 2024 and an additional 48 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 92 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential for further development. Bargo's growth since census, at 5.6%, is within 0.8 percentage points of the state average (6.4%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth primarily drove this population increase, contributing approximately 54.9% of overall gains during recent periods, though all factors including interstate and overseas migration were positive.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends suggest lower quartile growth in national statistical areas, with Bargo expected to increase by 83 persons by 2041 based on current numbers, reflecting a decline of 0.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bargo, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bargo has received approximately 26 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 131 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25 and one so far in FY-26. Over the past five years, an average of 1.1 people have moved to Bargo for each dwelling built. However, this figure has increased to 5.2 people per dwelling over the last two years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. The average construction value of development projects is $515,000.

This year, there have been $8.1 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. When compared to Greater Sydney, Bargo has significantly less development activity, 72.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new properties typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining Bargo's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 585 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Bargo should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Bargo has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. One major project identified by AreaSearch is likely to affect this region: Maldon-Dombarton Rail Corridor, Picton Road Safety And Capacity, Illawarra Offshore Wind Area, Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct are key projects, with the following list highlighting those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Bargo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Bargo has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 2.9%.

Over the past year, employment grew by 4.7%. As of June 2025, 3,497 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction employment is high at 1.8 times the regional level, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 4.0% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited based on Census data analysis. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.7%, labour force by 4.9%, leading to a slight unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. Comparatively, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.5%, with employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bargo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.9% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

Bargo had a median taxpayer income of $52,574 and an average of $64,201 according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. This aligns with national averages but is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,147 (median) and $71,006 (average), based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. In Bargo, household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 41st and 56th percentiles as per the 2021 Census figures. The predominant income cohort in Bargo was 31.8% (1,992 people) earning $1,500-$2,999, similar to the broader area's 30.9%. Housing costs consumed 16.8% of income, yet disposable income ranked at the 55th percentile. Bargo's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Bargo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Bargo, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas where 94.1% of dwellings are houses, and 5.9% are other types. Home ownership in Bargo stood at 35.2%, higher than Sydney metro's average. Mortgaged dwellings made up 48.3%, while rented ones accounted for 16.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, below the Sydney metro average of $2,318 but above the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Bargo was $415, matching Sydney's figure but higher than the national average of $375.

Bargo features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 78.3% of all households, including 37.6% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.7%, with lone person households at 20.4% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Bargo fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has lower university qualification rates at 12.7% compared to Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (34.5%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, comprising 11.4% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Bargo's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,514 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 980) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area has two primary and one K-12 school, functioning as an education hub with 24.2 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 11.4.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bargo has 204 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 39 different routes, together facilitating 2,043 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency across all routes is 291 trips, translating to about 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bargo is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bargo faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover in Bargo is approximately 52%, which is higher than the average SA2 area (~3,252 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. 65.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. As of the latest data (2016), 19.7% of Bargo's residents are aged 65 and over (1,233 people), which is higher than the 16.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Bargo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bargo has a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 94.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, making up 63.1% of Bargo's population, similar to Greater Sydney's 63.0%. Regarding ancestry, the top groups are Australian (32.7%), English (29.0%), and Irish (7.0%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher at 2.7% compared to the regional average of 2.3%, Hungarian at 0.5% versus 0.3%, and Macedonian at 0.4% against 0.2%.

Bargo's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Bargo has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, Bargo has an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort (10.6%) and an under-representation of the 25-34 age group (9.5%). Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15-24 increased from 12.8% to 14.2%, while those aged 75-84 grew from 6.0% to 7.1%. Conversely, the age group of 5-14 decreased from 14.6% to 13.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Bargo's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 177 people (140%), from 127 to 305. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting Bargo's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.