Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton
Statistical Area - sa2

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's population is 22,617 as of November 2025. This shows an increase of 3,630 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,987. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 21,492 in June 2024 and an additional 1,404 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 119 persons per square kilometer. Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's 19.1% growth since the 2021 Census exceeds the state's 6.7%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is forecasted to increase by 6,339 persons, recording a gain of 22.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has averaged approximately 374 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1,874 homes. In Financial Year 26 so far, 112 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.7 people move to the area per year for each dwelling built between Financial Years 21 and 25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $279,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

This financial year has seen $18.5 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton records elevated construction activity at 23.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing diverse housing options. This shift from the existing 92.0% houses indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. With approximately 60 people per approval, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton reflects a developing area.

By 2041, the population is expected to grow by 5,184 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton Bypass. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% in June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.8%. As of June 2025, 11,880 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation at 63.4%. Key employment areas include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparisons. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, matching labour force growth and keeping unemployment stable at 3.3%. Greater Sydney recorded lower employment growth (2.6%) but higher labour force growth (2.9%), with a slight unemployment rate increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with industry-specific projections suggesting local growth in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton had a median taxpayer income of $56,783 and an average of $67,494 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was above the national average of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $63,943 and average income around $76,005, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. Census data shows incomes in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton cluster at the 56th percentile nationally. The $1,500-$2,999 earnings band captures 34.4% of the community (7,780 individuals), similar to regional levels at 30.9%. High housing costs consume 17.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.2% other dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was 29.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,175, below Sydney metro's average of $2,318. The median weekly rent figure for Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $415. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents exceeded the national average of $375.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.5% of all households, including 36.5% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.5%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households at 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate stands at 15.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high at 29.3%, including 10.8% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Six schools operate within Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton, educating approximately 2,887 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 970) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with five primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton area has 491 active public transport stops, served by a mix of train and bus routes. These stops are covered by 65 individual routes, collectively offering 2,449 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 159 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 349 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but slightly higher among older cohorts.

Approximately 53% of the total population (~12,077 people) has private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.2% and 8.9% of residents respectively. 66.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. The area has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,725 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a low cultural diversity, with 88.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, making up 58.9% of people, compared to 63.0% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.4%), English (30.1%), and Irish (8.0%).

Notably, Maltese is overrepresented at 1.4%, Lebanese at 0.9%, and Croatian at 0.7%.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's median age is 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 35-44 cohort constitutes 12.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.8% to 5.5% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.3% to 12.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's age structure. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 81%, adding 1,010 people and reaching a total of 2,254 from the previous count of 1,243. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort is projected to grow modestly by 4%, an increase of 63 people.