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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
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Sales Activity
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Sales Detail
Population
Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's population is 23,717 as of May 2026. This figure represents a 4,730 person increase (24.9%) since the 2021 Census which reported 18,987 people. The growth from June 2025's estimated resident population of 22,603 and an additional 1,550 validated new addresses is inferred. This results in a density ratio of 124 persons per square kilometer. Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's growth exceeded the state (7.1%) and Greater Sydney since 2021. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70.3% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.
AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a base year of 2021 are applied. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are used for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is forecasted to increase by 5,656 persons based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 19.1% over the 16-year period.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
The level of residential development activity in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton averaged approximately 374 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1874 homes. As of FY26245 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.7 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY21 and FY25. The average construction value was $279,000.
In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $18.5 million. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's construction levels were 22.0% higher per person over the five-year period. Recent construction comprised 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing. The area is expected to grow by approximately 4542 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand.
Looking ahead, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is expected to grow by 4,542 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally
Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton Bypass. The following list details those most relevant.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Wilton Growth Area
A massive NSW Government Priority Growth Area transforming Wilton into a sustainable new town of approximately 19,000 homes. Major residential precincts including Wilton Greens and Landcom's Panorama (North Wilton) are in active construction. Key infrastructure projects are well advanced in early 2026, including the new Hume Motorway entry/exit ramps and the three-lane bridge replacing Niloc Bridge, scheduled for completion in early 2027. Educational facilities, including Wilton High School and Wilton Ridge Public School, have commenced major construction with Stage 1 opening dates set for Term 1, 2027. The Wilton Industrial Park and Town Centre precincts are progressing through the final neighborhood planning and master planning phases.
Prospect South to Macarthur (ProMac)
A major Sydney Water drinking water network expansion program supporting the Western Sydney Aerotropolis and South West Growth Area. The project involved installing 22km of large-diameter trunk water mains, constructing three new pumping stations, five rechlorination plants, and significant reservoir upgrades. Key components include two new 24ML reservoirs at Oran Park and a rebuilt 6ML reservoir at Currans Hill, providing 100ML in additional storage capacity to improve drought resilience and service over 84,000 future dwellings.
Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line
The Maldon to Dombarton Railway is a proposed 35-kilometre single-track freight rail link intended to connect the Main South Line at Maldon with the Moss Vale to Unanderra line at Dombarton. This corridor aims to enhance freight access to Port Kembla and bypass Sydney's passenger network congestion. While 25 kilometres of earthworks were completed in the 1980s, the project remains in the investigative stage. Recent strategic planning, including the 2026 Draft Illawarra Shoalhaven Strategic Regional Integrated Transport Plan, continues to list it as a long-term investigative initiative, though Infrastructure Australia has previously noted that costs currently outweigh the economic benefits.
Panorama - North Wilton Precinct
Panorama is Landcom's 874-hectare flagship greenfield masterplanned community in the North Wilton Growth Area, delivering up to 5,600 all-electric homes across approximately 10 stages over 25 years. Australia's first 6 Star Green Star Community, the precinct includes a future 11-hectare lakeside activity hub, two new schools (preschool, primary and high school opening 2027), seven sports fields, 52 hectares of open space, free daily bus services to Macarthur Station, and new Hume Motorway on/off ramps and bridge due in early 2027. First residents moved in during 2025 with Stages 1-4 civil works complete or underway.
Wollondilly Cultural Precinct
Multi-stage civic and cultural precinct in Picton delivering a new Government Services Building (Stage 2, due mid 2026), refurbished Shire Hall, Performing Arts Centre (opened 2024), future new Library, Village Green and civic forecourt. The precinct will consolidate council and government services, expand cultural facilities and create new public space in the town centre.
Picton Parklands Master Plan
Council-adopted master plan and plan of management guiding staged upgrades across Picton Parklands (including Botanic Gardens, Hume Oval, Picton Sportsground, Monds Lane, RSL Park and creek corridors). Current works include the Picton Sportsground multi-use fields (earthworks, drainage, irrigation and lighting) progressing in 2025, alongside playspace and amenities upgrades at the Botanic Gardens. Implementation is staged as funding becomes available.
Picton High School Redevelopment
Completed $60 million complete rebuild accommodating up to 2,000 students. Features modern classrooms, specialist performance areas, creative arts spaces, hospitality kitchens, sports facilities, trade workshops, covered outdoor learning areas, library, administration spaces. Students moved into new buildings Term 2, 2021 with full completion 2022.
Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct
NSW Government concept for a new correctional precinct to address metropolitan prison capacity. A previously examined option in Wollondilly (south-west Sydney) was ruled out by the government in 2018 following site investigations and community opposition. Subsequent government materials and media reporting indicate the state has continued assessing metropolitan capacity solutions and alternative precinct locations (including areas around Greater Parramatta/Camellia), but as of August 2025 no confirmed site, scope or delivery timeline has been announced. The project therefore remains an uncommitted concept under assessment rather than an approved build.
Employment
AreaSearch analysis places Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% and estimated employment growth of 7.0% in the past year as of December 2025. There are 12,639 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.
Workforce participation is at 73.5%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A significant portion, 25.5%, of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in construction, healthcare & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in construction (1.9 times the regional level) but lower representation in professional & technical services (4.3% vs regional average of 11.5%).
Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 7.0%, while labour force grew by 7.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch
The median taxpayer income for Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton SA2 is $61,068 and the average is $72,506 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $67,370 and average income around $79,989, based on a 10.32% growth in wages since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that incomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton cluster at the 56th percentile nationally. The earnings band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 34.4% of the community (8,158 individuals), which is consistent with regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
In Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is in contrast to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton stood at 29.9%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,175, below the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were lower at $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households comprise 77.5% of all households, including 36.5% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.5%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7 people.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Educational outcomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment
The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high at 29.3%, with 10.8% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.
Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has 546 active public transport stops offering train and bus services. These stops are served by 66 routes, facilitating 2,452 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, primarily using cars (94%). The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.8 per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 25.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.
On average, there are 350 trips daily across all routes, equating to around four weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts.
The rate of private health cover is found to be fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~13,020 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.2 and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 66.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,944 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton shows lower cultural diversity with 88.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 58.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.4%), English (30.1%), and Irish (8.0%).
Notably, Maltese (1.4%) and Lebanese (0.9%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 2.6%, respectively.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is slightly younger than the national pattern
Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's median age in 2021 was 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton had a higher proportion of residents aged 0-4 (7.7%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.6%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the 35-44 age group increased from 11.7% to 12.6%, while the 45-54 cohort decreased from 13.3% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 69%, adding 919 residents to reach 2,262. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 3% (62 people).