Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's population was 18,987 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it had increased to around 22,617, a rise of 3,630 people (19.1%). This growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 21,492 in June 2024 and the addition of 1,404 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 119 persons per square kilometer. This growth exceeded the state's (6.7%) and metropolitan area's rates, making Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton is forecast to increase by 6,339 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 22.9% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton averaged approximately 374 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25, totalling 1874 homes. As of FY-26137 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 1.7 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $279,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In FY-26, there have been $18.5 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton records elevated construction at 23.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period from FY-20 to FY-25, preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This level is well above the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 92.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options.

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton reflects a developing area with around 60 people per approval. Looking ahead, the area is expected to grow by approximately 5184 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton Bypass. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.4% and estimated employment growth of 5.7% over the past year.

As of September 2025, 12,359 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%, which is 0.8% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 63.4%, comparable to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include construction, healthcare & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 5.7%, while labour force grew by 5.9%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a similar increase in unemployment. Statewide, NSW experienced a 0.03% contraction in employment (losing 2,260 jobs) by 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localized population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $56,783 and an average of $67,494 in the financial year 2022, according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $63,943 and an average of $76,005, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that incomes in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500-$2,999 captures 34.4% of the community (7,780 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was at 29.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,175, below Sydney metro's average of $2,318. The median weekly rent figure was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $415. Nationally, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,175 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $400.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 77.5% of all households, including 36.5% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.5%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households at 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.8% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has 491 active public transport stops. These include train and bus services. There are 65 individual routes serving these stops, providing a total of 2,449 weekly passenger trips.

Residents' accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with an average distance of 159 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency averages 349 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across various age groups, particularly among older cohorts.

Approximately 53% of the total population (~12,077 people) have private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.2% and 8.9% of residents respectively. About 66.4% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.7% in Greater Sydney. Around 16.5% of the population is aged 65 or over (3,725 people), with health outcomes among seniors requiring more attention than those of younger residents.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a low cultural diversity, with 88.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 58.9% of the population, compared to 63.0% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.4%), English (30.1%), and Irish (8.0%).

Notably, Maltese, Lebanese, and Croatian ethnicities have higher representation in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton than regionally: Maltese at 1.4% vs 2.3%, Lebanese at 0.9% vs 0.7%, and Croatian at 0.7% vs 0.7%.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a median age of 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 5-14 age group constitutes 14.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 12.4%. Between 2021 and present day, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.8% to 5.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 13.3% to 12.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's age structure. Notably, the 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 81%, adding 1,010 people and reaching a total of 2,254 from its current figure of 1,243. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 4%, increasing by 63 people.