Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is around 23,385 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 4,398 people (23.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,987 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 21,462 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1,409 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 123 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's 23.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 64.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of statistical areas across the nation is forecast, with the area expected to increase by 6,339 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 18.9% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has averaged around 374 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 1,874 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26165 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 1.7 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $279,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. There have also been $18.5 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton records somewhat elevated construction (23.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), preserving reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. This level is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 92.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 60 people per approval, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton reflects a developing area.

Looking ahead, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is expected to grow by 4,416 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton Bypass, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with the construction sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.3%, and 7.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 12,639 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (77.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 25.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.9 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 7.0% while the labour force increased by 7.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $61,068 and an average of $72,506 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is above the national average, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $66,479 (median) and $78,930 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 34.4% of the community (8,044 individuals), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 57th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.7% houses and 8.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was in line with that of Sydney metro, at 29.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (46.2%) or rented (23.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,175, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 77.5% of all households, comprising 36.5% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.5%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.8%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (34.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 546 active transport stops operating within Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 66 individual routes, collectively providing 2,452 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 25.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 350 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Picton, Tahmoor, and Buxton face significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~12,838 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.2% and 8.9% of residents, respectively, while 66.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,947 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is Christianity, which makes up 58.9% of the population. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton are Australian, comprising 31.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, English, comprising 30.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, and Irish, comprising 8.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 1.4% of Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton (vs 1.0% regionally), Lebanese at 0.9% (vs 2.6%) and Croatian at 0.7% (vs 0.7%).

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 37, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is equal to the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and remains comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 5 - 14 age group shows strong representation at 14.2% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 35 - 44 cohort is less prevalent at 12.7%. In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.7% to 12.7% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.3% to 11.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 68% (911 people), reaching 2,254 from 1,342. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 cohort grows by a modest 3% (50 people).