Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton
Statistical Area - sa2

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's population is approximately 22,013 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents an increase of 3,026 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 18,987. The change is inferred from ABS estimates of 21,476 in June 2024 and validated new addresses since then. The population density ratio is 115 persons per square kilometer. Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's growth rate of 15.9% between the 2021 Census and Aug 2025 exceeds the state's (6.4%) and metropolitan area's rates, positioning it as a leading growth region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.8% to population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 (base year: 2021) are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is forecasted to increase by 6,339 persons based on latest numbers, marking a total gain of 26.3% over 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has averaged approximately 374 new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data, produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, shows 1,874 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with 56 approvals recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 1.7 people have moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years. This suggests a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $335,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY-26, there have been $18.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has somewhat elevated construction levels, at 23.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This reflects strong developer confidence in the area and provides reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium to high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering diverse price points from family homes to more affordable compact living.

This represents a shift from the area's current housing composition, which is 92.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options. With around 60 people per approval, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton reflects a developing area. Looking ahead, projections estimate that the area will grow by approximately 5,788 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Picton Parklands Master Plan, Picton Bypass, Picton High School Redevelopment, and Wollondilly Cultural Precinct. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis places Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Its construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% in June 2025.

The area saw estimated employment growth of 4.8% over the past year. As of June 2025, 11,880 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 63.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction has a particularly high representation, at 1.9 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. In the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.8%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.3%. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% over the same period. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.5%, and employment grew by 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1%% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton had a median taxpayer income of $56,783 and an average income of $67,494 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $62,802 (median) and $74,648 (average), based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data shows that incomes in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. The income band of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 34.4% of the community (7,572 individuals), consistent with regional trends showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was 29.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented dwellings at 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,175, below Sydney metro's average of $2,318. The median weekly rent figure was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $415. Nationally, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,175 compared to the Australian average of $1,863. Rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.5% of all households, including 36.5% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.5%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households making up 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has lower university qualification rates than Greater Sydney's average. The area's rate is 15.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 45.0% of residents aged 15+.

Advanced diplomas account for 10.8% and certificates for 34.2%. Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education. Six schools operate within Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton, educating approximately 2,887 students. These schools provide typical Australian educational conditions with balanced opportunities (ICSEA: 970). Education provision is balanced, with five primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has 491 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of train and bus routes totaling 65 individual services. The combined weekly passenger trips amount to 2,449.

Residents have excellent accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 159 meters from their nearest stop. On average, service frequency is 349 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton faces significant health challenges with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but at a slightly higher degree among older cohorts.

Approximately 53% of the total population (~11,754 people) has private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.2 and 8.9% of residents respectively. A majority, 66.4%, report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.5% (3,625 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a below average cultural diversity, with 88.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 94.6% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, comprising 58.9% of the population, compared to 63.0% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.4%), English (30.1%), and Irish (8.0%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher at 1.4%, compared to 2.3% regionally, Lebanese is at 0.9% versus 0.7%, and Croatian is at 0.7% versus the same regional percentage.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has a median age of 37, which is equal to Greater Sydney's figure and comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 14.1%, higher than Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 12.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.8% to 5.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.3% to 12.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's age structure. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 86%, adding 1,043 people and reaching a total of 2,254 from the current 1,210. Meanwhile, the 0-4 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 7%, with an increase of 108 people.