Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's population is around 23,385 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 4,398 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,987. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 21,462 in June 2024 and an additional 1,409 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 123 persons per square kilometer. Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's growth of 23.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 64.8% during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecast, with Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton expected to increase by 6,339 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall gain of 18.9% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton averaged approximately 374 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 1874 homes. As of FY26152 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.7 people moved to the area per dwelling built. The average construction value for new properties was $279,000.

This financial year has seen $18.5 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Sydney, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton's construction levels are 23.0% above the regional average per person over this period, reflecting strong developer confidence. Recent construction consists of 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% medium and high-density housing, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 92.0% houses. Currently, there are around 60 people moving into the area per approval. By 2041, Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton is projected to grow by 4416 residents.

At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, supporting good conditions for buyers and potential growth beyond current population projections.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Picton Parklands Master Plan, and Picton Bypass. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Picton Tahmoor Buxton has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.4% as of September 2025. Employment grew by 5.7% in the past year.

There are 12,359 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.4%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is high at 75.9%. A significant number of residents work from home, with 25.5% doing so according to Census data. Major employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.9 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on resident population vs working population counts. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 5.7% while labour force grew by 5.9%, causing unemployment to rise slightly to 3.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Picton Tahmoor Buxton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton SA2 is $61,068 and the average is $72,506 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $66,479 (median) and $78,930 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton cluster around the 56th percentile nationally. The $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 34.4% of the community's individuals (8,044). High housing costs consume 17.4% of income, placing disposable income at the 57th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 5th decile.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton, as per the latest Census, 91.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's ratio of 55.9% houses to 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton stood at 29.9%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. Mortgaged dwellings made up 46.2%, and rented dwellings accounted for 23.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,175, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,175 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.5% of all households, including 36.5% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.5%, with lone person households at 20.8% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high at 29.3%, with 10.8% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has 546 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 66 routes, providing 2,452 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically 157 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential; most commuters use cars (94%). Average vehicle ownership is 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. In 2021 Census data, 25.5% of residents worked from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 350 trips daily across all routes, equating to about four weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is found to be fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (~12,838 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.2 and 8.9% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 66.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 16.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,947 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Picton-Tahmoor-Buxton has a population where 88.4% were born in Australia, 91.8% are citizens, and 94.6% speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 58.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.4%), English (30.1%), and Irish (8.0%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher at 1.4% compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Lebanese and Croatian representations also diverge from regional averages at 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton has a median age of 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The age group of 5-14 years is strongly represented at 14.2%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 35-44 age cohort is less prevalent in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton at 12.7%. Between 2021 and present, the population of the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 11.7% to 12.7%. During this period, the 45 to 54 age cohort has decreased from 13.3% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Picton - Tahmoor - Buxton's age structure. Notably, the 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 68%, adding 911 people and reaching a total of 2,254 from its current figure of 1,342. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 age cohort is expected to grow modestly by 3%, an increase of 50 people.