Thirlmere

Thirlmere lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Thirlmere's population is estimated at around 5,650 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 664 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,986 people in the suburb of Thirlmere. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 5,355 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 275 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 172 persons per square kilometer. Thirlmere's growth rate of 13.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average of 7.1% and Greater Sydney, making it a notable growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate for national statistical areas, with Thirlmere expected to increase by 987 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 12.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Thirlmere among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Thirlmere has seen approximately 91 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-2021 to FY-2025, around 455 homes were approved, with an additional 55 approved in FY-2026 as of now. Each dwelling is estimated to accommodate about 2 new residents annually on average over these five years.

New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $335,000. This financial year has seen $4.7 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating the area's residential character. Comparatively, Thirlmere exhibits higher construction activity than Greater Sydney, with a 17.0% increase per capita over the past five years. This rate is significantly above the national average, suggesting robust developer interest in the region. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of predominantly houses (90.0%).

With approximately 57 people per dwelling approval, Thirlmere displays characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thirlmere is projected to add around 692 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Thirlmere has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified three projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Tahmoor South Coal Project, and Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line. The following list provides details on those most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Thirlmere shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Thirlmere has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate in Thirlmere is 3.4%, which is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. In the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 3.6% based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 2,854 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate. The workforce participation rate in Thirlmere is equal to Greater Sydney's rate of 68.8%. According to Census responses, 25.8% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Notably, Thirlmere has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share that is twice the regional level. However, professional & technical services employ only 3.8% of local workers, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 11.5%. The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 3.6%, while labour force grew by 4.0%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thirlmere's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Thirlmere had a median income among taxpayers of $53,563 and an average income of $63,667 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 for the same period. By March 2026, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32%, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,091 (median) and $70,237 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Thirlmere rank modestly, between the 45th and 47th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 33.9% of residents (1,915 people), similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thirlmere, with only 80.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Thirlmere is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thirlmere's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.2% houses and 9.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thirlmere stood at 32.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 24.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,300, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Thirlmere was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Thirlmere's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,300 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thirlmere has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, consisting of 32.5% couples with children, 31.2% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 1.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Thirlmere fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (35.2%). Educational participation is high at 28.4%, with 10.6% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thirlmere has 163 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together offer 257 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to transport, with an average distance of 152 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from Thirlmere, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 97%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Thirlmere, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 25.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 36 trips per day, resulting in approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to Thirlmere's central location.

Health performance in Thirlmere is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Thirlmere faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of Thirlmere's total population (~2,945 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.7%). Conversely, 64.1% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents exhibit a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. Thirlmere has 21.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,226 people), exceeding Greater Sydney's 15.5%. While national rankings for senior health outcomes are broadly in line with the general population, some challenges exist.

Thirlmere is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Thirlmere's cultural diversity was below average, with 90.2% citizens, 88.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 59.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.8%), English (29.6%), and Irish (7.5%).

Notably, Maltese (1.7%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Lebanese (1.5%) and Croatian (0.8%) had higher representation than their respective regional averages of 2.6% and 0.7%.

Thirlmere's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thirlmere was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years in 2021. It was also equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Thirlmere had a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (11.0%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 6.7% to 7.6%, while the 45 to 54 age group decreased from 11.1% to 9.1%. By 2041, Thirlmere's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 57%, reaching 676 people from 429. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 74% of the population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups.