Thirlmere

Thirlmere lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Thirlmere's population is estimated at around 6,126 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,140 people (22.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,986 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,564 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 195 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 186 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Thirlmere's 22.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the state (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch, with the suburb expected to grow by 2,004 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 23.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Thirlmere among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Thirlmere has seen approximately 91 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 455 homes were approved, with an additional 36 approved so far in FY26. On average, each dwelling constructed over this period accommodated about 1.9 new residents annually.

This balance between supply and demand supports stable market conditions, with new homes being built at an average construction cost of $335,000. In the current financial year, Thirlmere has registered $4.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating its residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Thirlmere's construction levels are 15.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, suggesting robust developer interest and maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 90.0% houses, likely due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 57 people per dwelling approval, Thirlmere exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Thirlmere is projected to add approximately 1,442 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Thirlmere has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Three projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are expected to impact the area. These key projects include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Tahmoor South Coal Project, and Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line, with the most relevant ones detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Thirlmere shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Thirlmere has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is notably represented. Unemployment rate was 3.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 6.7%.

As of December 2025, 3,245 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is 74.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Census data shows 25.8% of residents work from home. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction employment share is 2.0 times the regional level, while professional & technical employs just 3.8%, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 6.7% alongside labour force increasing by 7.1%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project an increase of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thirlmere's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Thirlmere had a lower than average national income level according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ending June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Thirlmere was $53,563, with an average income of $63,667. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $58,309 (median) and $69,308 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Thirlmere rank modestly, between the 45th and 47th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket dominates with 33.9% of residents (2,076 people), similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thirlmere, with only 80.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 44th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Thirlmere is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thirlmere's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.2% houses and 9.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thirlmere stood at 32.1%, with mortgaged properties at 43.4% and rented ones at 24.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,300, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Thirlmere was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Thirlmere's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thirlmere has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 32.5% couples with children, 31.2% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Thirlmere fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (35.2%). Educational participation is high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.6%), secondary education (7.9%), and tertiary education (2.9%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thirlmere has 163 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together facilitate 257 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 152 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from Thirlmere, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 97%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 25.8%, work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 36 trips per day, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Thirlmere is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Thirlmere faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

The area has a higher private health cover rate than average at approximately 52% (~3,193 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 10.8% and 8.7% of residents respectively. However, 64.1% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have a higher than average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a larger senior population (23.9%, 1,464 people) compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, mirroring national rankings for the general population.

Thirlmere is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Thirlmere's population showed low cultural diversity, with 90.2% being citizens and 88.8% born in Australia. English was spoken by 94.3% at home. Christianity dominated Thirlmere's religion, at 59.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%.

Ancestry showed Australian as the top group at 32.8%, higher than the regional average of 17.8%. English ancestry was also high at 29.6%, against a regional average of 19.0%. Irish ancestry stood at 7.5%. Notable differences included Maltese at 1.7% (regional: 1.0%), Lebanese at 1.5% (regional: 2.6%), and Croatian at 0.8% (regional: 0.7%).

Thirlmere's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thirlmere was close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years at the time of the 2021 Census. Compared to Greater Sydney, Thirlmere had a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (8.5%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, the percentage of Thirlmere's population aged 75 to 84 increased from 6.7% to 8.5%, while the proportion aged 45 to 54 decreased from 11.1% to 9.7%. By 2041, Thirlmere is projected to experience significant changes in its age distribution. The number of residents aged 85 and over is expected to grow by 150%, reaching 644 people from the initial figure of 257. This growth will be led by an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 66% of the projected growth. Conversely, the number of residents aged 0 to 4 is expected to decrease.