Thirlmere

Thirlmere lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Thirlmere statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 6,125 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,139 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,986. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,564 following examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 195 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 186 persons per square kilometer. The Thirlmere (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 22.8% between the 2021 Census and Nov 2025, exceeding both the state's growth rate of 7.6% and the metropolitan area's growth during this period. This growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 65.0%.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the ABS data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Thirlmere (SA2) is forecasted to increase by 1,872 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 22.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Thirlmere among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Thirlmere has recorded approximately 91 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 458 homes were approved, with a further 34 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, about 1.9 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years.

This suggests balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties is approximately $335,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $4.7 million, reflecting Thirlmere's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Thirlmere has slightly more development activity, 15.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This indicates strong developer confidence in the area.

New building activity shows 69.0% detached houses and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating diverse housing opportunities across price brackets. Currently, Thirlmere has approximately 56 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,379 residents, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Thirlmere has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that may affect this region. Key projects are Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Tahmoor South Coal Project, and Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Thirlmere shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Thirlmere has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent.

In the year ending September 2025, unemployment was at 3.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 5.4%. As of that date, 3169 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries included construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction had a particularly strong presence at twice the regional level. However, professional & technical jobs were limited at 3.8% compared to the regional 11.5%. In the past year, employment increased by 5.4%, while labour force grew by 5.6%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment rate. This contrasted with Greater Sydney where employment grew by 2.1% and unemployment rose slightly more. State-level data from 25-Nov showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03%. The state's unemployment rate was 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thirlmere's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Thirlmere suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $53,563 and an average of $63,667. Both figures are lower than the national average. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest approximately $58,309 for the median and $69,308 for the average as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Thirlmere rank modestly, between the 45th and 47th percentiles. Income distribution shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 33.9% of residents (2,076 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Thirlmere, with only 80.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Thirlmere is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thirlmere's dwelling structures, according to the latest Census, consisted of 90.2% houses and 9.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thirlmere was 32.1%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. Dwellings were either mortgaged (43.4%) or rented (24.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,300, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,318. Median weekly rent in Thirlmere was $420, slightly higher than Sydney metro's $415. Nationally, Thirlmere's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thirlmere has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.1% of all households, including 32.5% couples with children, 31.2% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 22.6% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational outcomes in Thirlmere fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (35.2%). Educational participation is high at 28.4%, with 10.6% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thirlmere's public transport analysis indicates 163 active stops operating within the area, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 27 individual routes, collectively offering 257 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 152 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 36 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Thirlmere is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Thirlmere faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover in Thirlmere is approximately 52%, compared to the average SA2 area and Greater Sydney's 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.7%). However, 64.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.7%. Thirlmere has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 16.5%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Thirlmere is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Thirlmere's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.2% of its population being citizens, 88.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Thirlmere, comprising 59.9% of people, compared to 63.0% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.8%), English (29.6%), and Irish (7.5%).

Notably, Maltese, Lebanese, and Croatian ethnicities have higher representation in Thirlmere than regionally: Maltese at 1.7% vs 2.3%, Lebanese at 1.5% vs 0.7%, and Croatian at 0.8% vs 0.7%.

Thirlmere's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Thirlmere is close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Thirlmere has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (10.6%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.9%). From the 2021 Census to present, the population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 6.7% to 7.3%. Conversely, the population aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 11.1% to 9.7%. By 2041, Thirlmere's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 77%, reaching 793 people from the current 447. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are expected to comprise 61% of the total population growth. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 0 to 4 is projected to decrease by 3%.