Tahmoor

Tahmoor lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, Tahmoor's population is estimated at around 7,457, reflecting an increase of 1,680 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 29.1% increase from the previous census figure of 5,777 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,884 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of an additional 1,060 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 439 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person with potential for further development. Tahmoor's growth of 29.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average (7.8%) and Greater Sydney, making it a notable growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also playing positive roles.

AreaSearch's projections for Tahmoor are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, or NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using 2021 as the base year where applicable. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to Tahmoor for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecasted for Tahmoor, with an expected growth of 2,370 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 24.1% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tahmoor among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Tahmoor has seen around 175 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 875 homes were approved, with a further 86 approved in FY-26 so far. Each dwelling built attracted an average of 1.1 people to the area over these five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions.

New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $335,000. This year, $5.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting Tahmoor's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tahmoor shows 89.0% higher construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 68.0% detached houses and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 91.0% houses pattern. Tahmoor reflects a developing area with around 41 people per approval. By 2041, Tahmoor is expected to grow by 1,797 residents, with current construction levels suggesting adequate housing supply to meet demand.

Looking ahead, Tahmoor is expected to grow by 1,797 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tahmoor has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact the area significantly due to changes in local infrastructure and planning initiatives. These key projects are: Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Tahmoor South Coal Project, and Wilton Growth Area - North Wilton Precinct. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Tahmoor demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Tahmoor's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with a 3.2% unemployment rate and 7.3% employment growth in the past year (AreaSearch). As of December 2025, 3,654 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 70.2%. A moderate 22.3% of residents work from home (Census). Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment levels are notably high at 2.0 times the regional average.

Professional & technical jobs have limited presence at 3.7%, compared to 11.5% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities (Census). Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.3%, labour force grew by 7.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's 2.2% employment growth and marginal unemployment rise. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tahmoor's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Tahmoor suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $54,248 and an average of $64,481. This was below the national average. Compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $59,054 (median) and $70,194 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data showed household, family, and personal incomes in Tahmoor ranked modestly, between the 47th and 49th percentiles. The largest segment comprised 35.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,632 residents), aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represented 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 80.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 46th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Tahmoor is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Tahmoor, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.4% of dwellings were houses while 8.6% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The rate of home ownership in Tahmoor was recorded at 26.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (41.6%) or rented (32.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, which is below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Tahmoor stood at $410 compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Tahmoor's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tahmoor has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.7% of all households, including 34.4% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 22.7% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Tahmoor faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (33.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.6%, with 11.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tahmoor has 163 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 48 routes, collectively facilitating 2,114 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 133 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.3% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 302 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 12 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map illustrates the 100 nearest stops to the location's centerpoint.

Health performance in Tahmoor is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tahmoor's health data indicates significant issues, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% (~3,910 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Mental health issues affect 9.7% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.3%. Conversely, 65.3% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Tahmoor has 15.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,126 people). Senior health outcomes present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the overall population.

Tahmoor is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tahmoor had a cultural diversity index of 88.1%, with 92.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.5% speaking English only at home, and 92.3% being citizens. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 56.1% of Tahmoor's population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.5%), English (29.0%), and Irish (7.7%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 1.1%, Lebanese lower at 0.9%, and Australian Aboriginal notably higher at 4.7%.

Tahmoor hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Tahmoor's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tahmoor has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.4%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.9%). Between the 2021 Census and present day, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 11.9% to 12.9%, while the population aged 45-54 has decreased from 13.2% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes for Tahmoor's age distribution, with the strongest projected growth in the 45-54 age group (30%), adding 267 residents to reach a total of 1,147.