Tahmoor

Tahmoor lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, Tahmoor's population is estimated at around 9,219. This reflects an increase of 3,442 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,777. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 8,896 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 1,103 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 542 persons per square kilometer. Tahmoor's growth rate of 59.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state's (7.1%) and Greater Sydney's rates, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of statistical areas across the nation, with Tahmoor expected to expand by 3,536 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 34.9% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tahmoor was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Tahmoor has experienced around 175 dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 875 homes. As of FY26122 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 43 people per dwelling approval. In terms of construction value, new properties are constructed at an average cost of $335,000.

Tahmoor has also registered $5.2 million in commercial approvals this financial year. Relative to Greater Sydney, Tahmoor records 74.0% more construction activity per person. The area's development consists of 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% townhouses or apartments. Population forecasts indicate Tahmoor will gain 3,213 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Tahmoor will gain 3,213 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Tahmoor has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the local area: Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion and Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation. Other notable projects include Tahmoor South Coal Project and Panorama - North Wilton Precinct.

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The labour market in Tahmoor shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Tahmoor has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.3% and estimated employment growth of 14.5% over the past year. As of December 2025, there are 5,104 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

The workforce participation rate is 77.0%, higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 22.3% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly notable at twice the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs show lower representation at 3.7%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 14.5% while labour force grew by 14.8%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tahmoor's employment mix indicates local employment should grow by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Tahmoor's median income among taxpayers is $54,248 and the average is $64,481. These figures are lower than national averages. Greater Sydney has a median of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Tahmoor's median income would be approximately $59,846 and the average would be around $71,135 as of March 2026. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Tahmoor rank modestly, between the 47th and 49th percentiles. The earnings profile reveals that 35.3% of residents (3,254 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, which is similar to the regional trend where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tahmoor, with only 80.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Tahmoor is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Tahmoor, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Sydney metropolitan areas where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Tahmoor's home ownership rate was 26.1%, lower than Sydney metro's rate. Dwellings in Tahmoor were either mortgaged (41.6%) or rented (32.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tahmoor was $2,167, below the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Tahmoor was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Tahmoor's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tahmoor has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 74.7% of all households, including 34.4% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 22.7% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Tahmoor faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 33.9%. Educational participation is high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.7% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tahmoor has 163 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 48 individual routes, collectively providing 2,114 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 133 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 302 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Tahmoor is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tahmoor's health data shows significant challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~4,834 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 9.7 and 9.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 65.3% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Tahmoor has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,419 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tahmoor is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tahmoor had a cultural diversity index of 88.1%, with 92.3% of its population being Australian-born citizens who spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Tahmoor, practiced by 56.1% of residents, compared to 49.2% in Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.5%), English (29.0%), and Irish (7.7%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher than average at 1.1%, while Lebanese was lower at 0.9%. Australian Aboriginal residents comprised 4.7% of Tahmoor's population.

Tahmoor hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Tahmoor's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and considerably younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tahmoor has a higher proportion of 0-4 residents (8.6%) but fewer 35-44 year-olds (13.1%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 11.9% to 13.1%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.2% to 11.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Tahmoor, with the 45-54 age group projected to grow by 43%, adding 472 residents to reach a total of 1,570.