Tahmoor

Tahmoor lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Tahmoor's population is estimated at around 7,375. This reflects an increase of 1,598 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,777. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,962 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 1,054 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 434 persons per square kilometer. Tahmoor's growth rate of 27.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state's (6.7%) and metropolitan area's, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Tahmoor's population is expected to increase by 1,999 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 15.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tahmoor among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tahmoor experienced around 170 dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 852 homes. So far in FY-26, 58 approvals have been recorded. The average new resident per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 was 1.2, suggesting balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $335,000, below the regional average, offering more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $12.7 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tahmoor records 85.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 91.0% houses. With around 35 people per dwelling approval, Tahmoor shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate Tahmoor adding 1,144 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Future projections show Tahmoor adding 1,144 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tahmoor has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact this region. Key projects include Tahmoor Marketplace Expansion, Tahmoor Town Centre Revitalisation, Tahmoor South Coal Project, and Wilton Growth Area - North Wilton Precinct. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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The employment environment in Tahmoor shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tahmoor's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent with an unemployment rate of 3.2% and estimated employment growth of 5.2% in the past year, as per AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 3433 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is 62.3%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include construction, healthcare & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly high share at twice the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 3.7% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, indicated by the census working population versus resident population count. In the year ending June 2025, employment increased by 5.2%, while labour force grew by 5.3%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.2%. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.6% and unemployment rose to 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-2022 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Tahmoor's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Tahmoor had a median taxpayer income of $54,248 and an average of $64,481 in financial year 2022. This is according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures are similar to national averages, but differ from Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes in Tahmoor would be approximately $61,089 (median) and $72,612 (average) by September 2025. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Tahmoor rank modestly, between the 47th and 49th percentiles. Income distribution indicates that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 35.3% of residents (2,603 people), which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tahmoor, with only 80.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Tahmoor is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Tahmoor, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.4% houses and 8.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 94.1% houses and 5.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tahmoor was at 26.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.6% and rented ones at 32.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was $410. In Sydney metro, these figures were $2,318 and $415 respectively. Nationally, Tahmoor's mortgage repayments are higher at $2,167 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents in Tahmoor exceed the national figure of $375 at $410.

Tahmoor has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.7% of all households, including 34.4% couples with children, 22.8% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.3%, with lone person households at 22.7% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Tahmoor faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 13.3%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (33.9%).

Educational participation is high at 29.6%, including 11.7% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education. Tahmoor Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 503 students as of a recent report. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 6.8, below the regional average of 11.1, indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tahmoor has 142 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 49 individual routes that collectively facilitate 2,130 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 136 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 304 trips per day, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tahmoor is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Tahmoor faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover in Tahmoor is approximately 52% of the total population (~3,867 people), which leads that of the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 9.7% and 9.3% of residents respectively. In contrast, 65.3% of residents declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 68.7% across Greater Sydney. Tahmoor has 15.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,143 people). Health outcomes among seniors in the area present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Tahmoor is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tahmoor's population showed low cultural diversity, with 88.1% born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Tahmoor, accounting for 56.1%, compared to 63.0% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.5%), English (29.0%), and Irish (7.7%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.1% in Tahmoor compared to 2.3% regionally, Lebanese at 0.9% versus 0.7%, and Australian Aboriginal at 4.7% versus 3.1%.

Tahmoor hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Tahmoor's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tahmoor has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 (15.1%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (12.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the age group of 35 to 44 years has grown from 11.9% to 12.6%, while the 45 to 54 age cohort has declined from 13.2% to 11.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Tahmoor. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 70%, adding 277 residents to reach a total of 676. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 51% of the population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the number of residents in the 0 to 4 age range is expected to fall by 10%.