The Oaks

Population growth drivers in The Oaks are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of The Oaks is estimated at approximately 2,914 as of May 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 68 people from the 2021 Census total of 2,982 residents. AreaSearch's analysis, based on ABS data and new addresses validated since the Census, shows a resident population estimate of 2,899 in June 2025. The population density is calculated at 74 persons per square kilometer. Natural growth contributed around 50% of overall population gains recently, with other drivers such as interstate migration also positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Based on these aggregations, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 315 persons to reach around 3,229 residents by 2041, reflecting an increase of about 10.3% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees The Oaks recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, The Oaks averaged approximately 18 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, around 90 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY26. Each year, on average, 2.4 new residents were gained per dwelling built during these five financial years, indicating healthy demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $509,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This year, there have been $284,000 in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, The Oaks records significantly lower building activity, 61.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. New development consists of 93.0% detached houses and 7.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated count of 346 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, The Oaks is expected to grow by approximately 300 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

The Oaks has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects influencing this area. Notable projects include Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct, South West Growth Area, Warragamba Dam Raising Project, and Maldon to Dombarton Freight Rail Line.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees The Oaks performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

The Oaks has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate is 1.1%, having experienced an estimated employment growth of 5.1% over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,806 residents are employed while the area's unemployment rate stands at 3.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in The Oaks is high at 79.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 27.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Key industries for employment among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in construction employment at 2.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.2% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.1%, and labour force grew by 4.9%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% with a slight increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to The Oaks' employment mix indicates that local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in The Oaks suburb was $62,685 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $76,845 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for The Oaks' median income are approximately $69,154 as of March 2026, with the average income estimated at $84,775 during the same period. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in The Oaks cluster around the 74th percentile nationally. Income distribution data shows that 34.0% of residents (990 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 weekly income bracket, which mirrors regional levels at 30.9%. The suburb demonstrates affluence with 34.2% earning over $3,000 per week. Housing accounts for 14.8% of income, and residents rank within the 82nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

The Oaks is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The Oaks' dwelling structure, as assessed in the latest Census, consisted of 97.0% houses and 2.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in The Oaks stood at 35.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 51.5% and rented dwellings at 12.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in the area was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, The Oaks' median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,383 against the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were $400, exceeding the national figure of $375.

The Oaks features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 84.7% of all households, including 47.9% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.3%, with lone person households at 14.0% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in The Oaks fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high at 29.5%, with 11.5% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in The Oaks indicates there are currently 36 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 16 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 198 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 231 meters from their nearest transport stop. Being primarily residential, most commuting in The Oaks is outward-bound. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 96%.

Vehicle ownership averages 2.2 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 27.5% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 28 trips per day, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in The Oaks is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

The Oaks demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population, which is around 1,669 people. This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.3 and 7.8% of residents respectively. A total of 70.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over, which is 483 people, higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The Oaks is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

The Oaks was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 89.5% of its population born in Australia. Additionally, 93.2% were citizens and 95.9% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in The Oaks, accounting for 67.2% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were Australian (35.0%), English (29.1%), and Irish (8.6%). These figures were substantially higher than the regional averages of 17.8%, 19.0%, and 4.0%, respectively. Notably, Maltese was overrepresented at 2.3% in The Oaks compared to 1.0% regionally, Hungarian was also overrepresented at 0.3% (compared to 0.3%), and Italian was slightly higher at 4.2% compared to the regional average of 3.4%.

The Oaks's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in The Oaks is 37 years, matching Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The age group of 5-14 years is strongly represented at 14.4%, compared to Greater Sydney. However, the 25-34 age cohort is less prevalent in The Oaks at 10.6%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 12.6% to 14.9%, while the 35 to 44 age group increased from 14.1% to 15.2%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age cohort declined from 12.3% to 10.6%, and the 45 to 54 age group decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in The Oaks' age structure. Notably, the 85+ age group is expected to grow by 183%, reaching 140 individuals from its current figure of 49. This growth will be led by an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 58% of projected growth. Conversely, the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.