Narellan

Narellan is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Narellan statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 3,843 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 485 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,358 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,840 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 70 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 963 persons per square kilometer. The Narellan (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 14.4% since the 2021 census, exceeding the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Narellan (SA2) is expected to expand by 873 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 13.9% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narellan recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narellan has seen approximately 44 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis using statistical area data. Over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, around 223 homes were approved, with an additional 22 approved in FY26 as of now. On average, each new home has attracted about 1.5 new residents annually over these five years, indicating a balanced supply and demand scenario. However, this figure has increased to 4.4 people per dwelling in the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average construction cost value for new homes is approximately $635,000, reflecting developers' focus on the premium segment. This year alone, $1.2 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan records 200% more building activity per person, offering buyers ample choice despite recent moderation in development activity. This is significantly above the national average, demonstrating robust developer interest in the area. New developments consist of 60% standalone homes and 40% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 91% houses, potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Narellan reflects a transitioning market with around 304 people per approval.

Future projections estimate Narellan will add 536 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narellan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Tulich Retirement Tower at Oran Park, Oran Park Hotel (Atura Hotel), and Oran Park Town. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Narellan demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narellan has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.2%. Residents' employment rate is 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, with workforce participation similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key sectors include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction has a strong presence, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services have limited representation at 4.3% compared to the regional 11.5%. There are 1.1 workers per resident, indicating Narellan functions as an employment hub. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.2%, with labour force growth also at 5.2% and unemployment remaining stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1%, labour force expand by 2.4%, and unemployment rise slightly to 4.4%. State-level data from NSW as of 25-November shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Narellan was $48,872 and average income was $59,295. This is below Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Narellan would be approximately $53,202 and average income $64,549 by the latter date. According to Census 2021 data, household, family, and personal incomes in Narellan rank modestly, between the 42nd and 47th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 38.7% of locals (1,487 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to metropolitan Sydney's 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Narellan, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Narellan, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 90.7% houses and 9.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Narellan was higher than that of the Sydney metro at 29.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (37.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,037, which is lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,383. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $430, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Narellan's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375 as per data from the 2016 Census.

Narellan has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 17.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Narellan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (30.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narellan has 50 active public transport stops, all of which are bus routes. These stops are served by 80 different routes that together facilitate 4,156 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 185 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 593 trips across all routes, which translates to about 83 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narellan is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Narellan faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~1,937 people) have private health cover, lower than Greater Sydney's 56.7%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are most prevalent, affecting 10.0% each of residents. 62.0% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 71.6%. 17.3% (664 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Sydney's 12.9%. Health outcomes among seniors largely mirror those of the general population.

Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan, as per the census conducted on Tuesday 27 August 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 90.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 63.2%, slightly below Greater Sydney's 64.3%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.3%), English (27.0%), and Irish (7.5%).

Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Maltese at 1.4% compared to the regional 1.8%, Lebanese at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Samoan at 0.4% against the regional 0.5%.

Narellan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narellan's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37. This is modestly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (10.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 4.3% to 5.9%. Meanwhile, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 has declined from 15.7% to 13.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Narellan's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 68%, adding 154 residents to reach 381. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 54% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the populations of those aged 25-34 and 0-4 are projected to decline.