Narellan

Narellan is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of May 2026 the suburb of Narellan's population is estimated at around 3,675. This reflects an increase of 317 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,358 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,662, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 71 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 921 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Narellan's growth rate of 9.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the state average of 7.1%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

All drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the suburb expected to expand by 697 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.6% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narellan recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Narellan had around 44 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 221 homes were approved, with another 24 in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 1.6 new residents per new home over the past five years. However, recent data indicates this has increased to 14.7 people per dwelling over the last two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $635,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. This year, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan has 188.0% more building activity per person. New developments consist of 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 91.0% houses. This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. With around 343 people per approval, Narellan reflects a transitioning market.

Future projections estimate Narellan will add 684 residents by 2041, with current development rates expected to comfortably meet demand.

Narellan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects expected to impact the region. Notable projects include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Tulich Retirement Tower Oran Park, Oran Park Hotel (Atura Hotel), and Oran Park Town. The following list details those deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narellan demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narellan has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment. The construction sector is particularly prominent with an unemployment rate of 3.0% and estimated employment growth of 7.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 2,078 residents in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation stands at 71.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census responses indicate that a moderate 25.1% of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. The area shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Meanwhile, professional & technical services have limited presence, with 4.3% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. There are 1.1 workers for every resident, indicating that Narellan functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 7.4%, labour force increased by 7.7%, resulting in a marginal rise of unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. This compares to Greater Sydney where employment grew by 2.2%, labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Narellan. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though it is noted that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Narellan is below the national average. The median assessed income is $48,872 and the average income stands at $59,295. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $53,916 (median) and $65,414 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Narellan, between the 42nd and 47th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 38.7% of locals (1,422 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Narellan, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narellan's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.7% houses and 9.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan stood at 29.0%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 37.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,037, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Narellan was $430, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Narellan's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narellan has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, consisting of 32.7% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 17.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Narellan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 13.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (30.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narellan's public transport analysis shows 46 active stops operating within the area, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 80 individual routes, together facilitating 4,156 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from their nearest stop. As a predominantly residential region, most commutes are outward-bound, with the car being the primary mode of transport at 92%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 1.6, which exceeds the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 25.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 593 trips per day, equating to roughly 90 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Narellan is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Narellan faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data. Several health conditions impact both younger and older age cohorts significantly. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~1,852 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent conditions in Narellan, affecting 10.0% and 10.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Narellan has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.4% (639 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 90.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Narellan, comprising 63.2% of people, which compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (29.3%), English (27.0%), and Irish (7.5%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher at 1.4% compared to the regional average of 1.0%, while Lebanese and Samoan representations are lower at 0.9% and 0.4% respectively, versus regional averages of 2.6% and 0.5%.

Narellan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narellan's median age is nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (10.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 4.3% to 6.1% of Narellan's population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 15.7% to 13.9%, and the 0 to 4 age group has dropped from 6.7% to 5.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Narellan's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow strongly at 68%, adding 152 residents to reach a total of 377. In contrast, both the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.