Narellan

Narellan is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Narellan is around 3,850. This represents an increase of 492 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,358. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and validation of 68 new addresses, is 3,840 residents. This results in a population density ratio of 964 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Narellan's growth rate of 14.7% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the SA3 area (6.9%) and the state average. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Applying growth rates by age group from these aggregations to all areas, the suburb is projected to have an above median population growth between 2032 and 2041, with an expected increase of 855 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narellan recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Narellan has seen approximately 44 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS data. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 223 homes were approved, with an additional 22 in FY-26. On average, 1.5 new residents per year arrived for each new home over the past five financial years. However, this increased to 4.4 people per dwelling over the last two years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $635,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan has 200.0% more building activity per person. New development consists of 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 91.0% houses. This reflects changing land availability and evolving housing preferences. Narellan has around 304 people per approval, indicating a transitioning market.

Future projections estimate Narellan to add 514 residents by 2041, with current development rates expected to meet demand comfortably.

Narellan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Tulich Retirement Tower Oran Park, Oran Park Hotel (Atura Hotel), and Oran Park Town, with the following list outlining those of greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narellan demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narellan has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% as of September 2025. Employment in the area grew by 5.4% over the past year.

In comparison to Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%, Narellan has a lower rate of 1.2%. However, workforce participation is slightly below standard at 65.8%. According to Census responses, 25.1% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance.

The area specializes in construction with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level. Professional & technical services have a limited presence at 4.3%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. There are 1.1 workers for every resident, indicating that Narellan functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.4% while unemployment remained essentially unchanged at 3.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that employment in Narellan should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Narellan, median income is $48,872 and average income is $59,295. This is below Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $53,202 and average income $64,549, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data ranks Narellan's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 42nd and 47th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 38.7% (1,489 people) of locals fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Narellan, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Narellan, as per the latest Census, 90.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas, where 55.9% were houses and 44.1% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan stood at 29.0%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 33.5%, while rented dwellings made up 37.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,037, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Narellan was $430, compared to $470 in Sydney metro areas. Nationally, Narellan's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national average of $375.

Narellan has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 76.8% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 17.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Narellan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 30.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narellan has 46 operational public transport stops, all providing bus services. These stops are covered by 80 different routes, offering a total of 4,156 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 185 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 92% of residents. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 593 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 90 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narellan is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges for Narellan. AreaSearch's assessment shows high mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~1,940 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 10.0% and 10.0% of residents respectively. 62.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 17.9% of residents aged 65 and over (689 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan, as per the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census conducted on 27 August 2016, showed a lower than average cultural diversity level with 85.7% of its population born in Australia and 92.0% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 90.5% of Narellan's residents. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 63.2% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 29.3%, English 27.0%, and Irish 7.5%. Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.4%, Lebanese at 0.9%, and Samoan at 0.4%, compared to regional averages of 1.0%, 2.6%, and 0.5% respectively.

Narellan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narellan has a median age of 37, aligning with Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and closely matching Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 10.6% of Narellan's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 13.3%, lower than Greater Sydney's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 4.3% to 6.1%. During this period, the 25-34 cohort decreased from 15.7% to 13.3%, and the 0-4 group fell from 6.7% to 5.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Narellan's age structure. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 61%, reaching 378 people from a base of 234. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 51% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 5-14 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.