Narellan

Narellan is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Narellan's population is estimated at around 3,692 people. This reflects a growth of 334 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,358 people. AreaSearch, after examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and validating an additional 70 new addresses since the Census date, estimated the resident population to be 3,705. This equates to a density ratio of 925 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Narellan's growth rate of 9.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (6.1%) and the state average. Natural growth contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to expand by 870 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.5% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Narellan when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Narellan has had around 39 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 198 homes were approved, with a further 15 in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 1.7 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years.

The market balance suggests stable conditions, with new properties valued at around $635,000 on average. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $1.1 million. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan has 167.0% more building activity per person. New development consists of 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 91.0% houses. Narellan reflects a developing area with around 184 people per approval. Future projections estimate an addition of 684 residents by 2041, indicating that new housing supply should meet demand at current development rates.

Future projections show Narellan adding 684 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narellan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Tulich Retirement Tower Oran Park, Oran Park Hotel (Atura Hotel), and Oran Park Town. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narellan demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narellan has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is particularly prominent.

As of June 2025, unemployment stands at 2.9%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.0% based on AreaSearch data aggregation. In June 2025, 1,975 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 1.2%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

Employment in Narellan is concentrated in construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance, with a strong specialization in construction at 1.8 times the regional level. Professional & technical employment is limited at 4.3% compared to the regional 11.5%. The area hosts more jobs than residents, with 1.1 workers per resident as of the Census. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 5.0%, labour force grew by 4.8%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Narellan. These projections indicate national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates across sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Income in Narellan was below national average during financial year 2022, with median assessed at $48,871 and average income at $59,294. This contrasted Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes were approximately $55,034 (median) and $66,771 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%. Census 2021 data showed household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly in Narellan, between 42nd and 47th percentiles. Income brackets indicated predominant cohort was 38.7% (1,428 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999, similar to metropolitan region's 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at 45th percentile.

Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Narellan, as per the latest Census evaluation, 90.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan stood at 29.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 37.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,037, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent in Narellan was $430, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Narellan's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,037 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $430 compared to the national figure of $375.

Narellan has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.8 percent of all households, including 32.7 percent couples with children, 25.4 percent couples without children, and 17.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.2 percent, with lone person households at 20.2 percent and group households comprising 3.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.0.

Educational outcomes in Narellan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 30.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education. The area has two schools serving 398 students: Narellan Public School and Yandelora School. These schools offer balanced educational opportunities, typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 991). There is one primary and one K-12 school. The school places per 100 residents (10.8) are below the regional average (16.8), indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Narellan shows that there are currently 37 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 80 individual routes providing service to the area. The weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 3,543.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 185 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 506 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 95 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narellan is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Narellan, affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% of the total population (~1,861 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 55.2%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 10.0% and 10.0% of residents respectively. 62.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 71.6% in Greater Sydney. Narellan has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.3% (638 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 12.9%. Senior health outcomes align broadly with the general population's health profile.

Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 90.5% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Narellan is Christianity, accounting for 63.2% of the population, compared to 64.3% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), Australians comprise 29.3%, English 27.0%, and Irish 7.5% of Narellan's population.

Notably, Maltese are overrepresented at 1.4% compared to the regional average of 1.8%, Lebanese at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Samoan at 0.4% compared to 0.5%.

Narellan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narellan's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years. This is modestly below the Australian median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (10.1%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 4.3% to 5.9%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has declined from 15.7% to 13.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Narellan's age profile will significantly evolve. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 75%, adding 163 residents to reach 381. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 51% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.