Narellan

An assessment of population growth drivers in Narellan reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Narellan is estimated at around 3,850 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,358 people, marking a rise of 492 individuals (14.7%). AreaSearch's analysis, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, suggests this growth is primarily driven by natural factors contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains. Other drivers such as overseas migration and interstate migration also played positive roles. Narellan's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (6.9%) and the state during this period. The population density ratio stands at 964 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch.

Looking ahead, ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 anticipate significant population increases nationwide. For Narellan, this translates to an expected expansion of 1,025 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 26.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Narellan recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Narellan has experienced around 44 dwellings receiving development approval each year. An estimated 221 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with a further 21 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.5 new residents arrived per new home over the past 5 financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this rate has intensified to 4.8 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $635,000, reflecting a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $1.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan records 180.0% more building activity per person, offering buyers ample choice, though recent periods show moderating development activity. This is significantly above the national average, demonstrating robust developer interest in the area. New development consists of 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 91.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. At around 317 people per approval, Narellan reflects a transitioning market with future projections showing an addition of 1,015 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

If current development rates continue, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narellan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Studley Park House Redevelopment, Tulich Retirement Tower Oran Park, Oran Park Hotel (Atura Hotel), and Oran Park Town. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Narellan demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narellan has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The construction sector is prominent, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.8%.

The area's unemployment rate is 1.2% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, with workforce participation at 66.8%. As of Census responses, 25.1% of residents work from home. Major employment sectors include construction, retail trade, and health care & social assistance. Construction has a particularly strong presence, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs have limited presence at 4.3%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area hosts more jobs than residents, with 1.1 workers per resident, functioning as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 6.8% while unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that in Narellan, median income is $48,872 and average income is $59,295. This is below Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, current estimates for Narellan would be approximately $53,202 (median) and $64,549 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Narellan rank modestly, between the 42nd and 47th percentiles. Income brackets show that 38.7% of locals (1,489 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Narellan, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 45th percentile.

Narellan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narellan's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.7% houses and 9.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan was at 29.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 37.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,037, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Narellan was $430, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Narellan's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narellan has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 76.8% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 25.4% couples without children, and 17.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.2% and group households making up 3.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Narellan fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (30.9%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.0% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narellan has 46 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 80 different routes that collectively facilitate 4,156 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Narellan is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 92%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 593 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 90 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narellan is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Narellan faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (around 1,940 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 10.0% and 10.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.0% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, lower than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 18.0% (693 people), compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with national rankings broadly aligned with the general population.

Narellan ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 90.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Narellan, comprising 63.2% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Narellan were Australian (29.3%), English (27.0%), and Irish (7.5%).

Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Maltese at 1.4% (regional average 1.0%), Lebanese at 0.9% (regional average 2.6%), and Samoan at 0.4% (regional average 0.5%).

Narellan's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Narellan's median age in 2021 was 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is modestly under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan had a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (10.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.4%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, the proportion of Narellan's population aged 75 to 84 grew from 4.3% to 6.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 decreased from 15.7% to 13.4%, and the proportion of those aged 0 to 4 dropped from 6.7% to 5.6%. Demographic modeling indicates that Narellan's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 55 to 64 cohort is projected to grow strongly, increasing by 47% and adding 215 residents to reach a total of 674. In contrast, both the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.