Narellan Vale

Narellan Vale has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Narellan Vale is around 7,272, reflecting a growth of 341 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 4.9% change from the previous population count of 6,931. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, which showed a resident population of 7,191. This growth places Narellan Vale within the upper quartile for population density ratios relative to other national locations assessed by AreaSearch, with a ratio of 2,840 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 4.9% growth since census is comparable to its SA3 area, which grew by 6.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a 2022 base year. The suburb is expected to increase by 342 persons by 2041, reflecting an anticipated lower quartile growth trend across statistical areas nationwide and a total gain of 3.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narellan Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Narellan Vale averaged around 13 new dwelling approvals each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, an estimated 68 homes were approved, with a further 3 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average value of new dwellings developed was $308,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year has also seen $1.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan Vale had significantly less development activity, 58.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also below national averages, suggesting possible planning constraints. New development consisted of 69.0% detached dwellings and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across price brackets. This marks a significant shift from the current housing pattern, which is 97.0% houses, potentially indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 676 people per dwelling approval, Narellan Vale reflects a highly mature market. Future projections show Narellan Vale adding 261 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Narellan Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Mount Annan Christian College Expansion, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Australian Botanic Garden Mount Annan Masterplan, and Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Narellan Vale places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Narellan Vale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 1.4% and there was an estimated employment growth of 7.3% in the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 4711 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 83.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 30.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training sectors. Construction employment is particularly notable at 1.5 times the regional average.

Professional & technical employment is limited at 4.2%, compared to 11.5% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 7.3% and labour force grew by 7.2%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%, labour force grow by 2.3%, and unemployment rise marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Narellan Vale had a median income among taxpayers of $58,578 and an average income of $69,957 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 for the same period. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% suggest a median income of approximately $63,768 and an average income of $76,155 in Narellan Vale. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Narellan Vale rank between the 70th and 80th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 38.4% of residents (2,792 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. Notably, 30.3% of residents earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narellan Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Narellan Vale, as per the latest Census, 97.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 2.7% being semi-detached, apartments or other types. This differs from Sydney metro's composition of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan Vale stood at 26.2%, compared to Sydney metro's higher rate. Mortgaged dwellings made up 52.1% and rented ones accounted for 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent was $460, similar to Sydney metro's figure of $470. Nationally, Narellan Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $460 than the national average of $375.

Narellan Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.1% of all households, including 45.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.9%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Narellan Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (29.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.4% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.9% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narellan Vale has 39 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 58 different routes that together facilitate 2,056 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 163 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 30.1% of residents work from home, a figure potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 293 trips per day, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Narellan Vale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narellan Vale faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 55% of the total population (~3,969 people) has private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.8 and 8.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 68.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (974 people), lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narellan Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan Vale's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.1% of its population born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 89.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 63.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. Top ancestry groups were Australian (29.9%), English (26.9%), and Other (7.3%).

Notably, Maltese (1.6%) and Polish (0.9%) were overrepresented, while Serbian (0.5%) matched regional averages.

Narellan Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Narellan Vale's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group comprises 15.3% of Narellan Vale's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. However, the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.6%, lower than Greater Sydney's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.1% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.7% to 13.2%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 15.0% to 13.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Narellan Vale. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 337 people (99%), from 341 to 679. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.