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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
Narellan Vale has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch
As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since May 2026, the suburb of Narellan Vale has an estimated population of around 7,026. This figure represents a rise of 95 people (1.4%) from the 2021 Census count of 6,931 residents. AreaSearch's estimate is based on the resident population of 7,014, derived from the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at 2,744 persons per square kilometer, placing Narellan Vale in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch nationwide. Natural growth has been the primary driver of population increase in the suburb, contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.
AreaSearch's projections for Narellan Vale are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Looking ahead, population growth is anticipated to slow down nationally, with Narellan Vale expected to increase by 292 persons by 2041. This projected growth reflects an overall gain of 4.0% over the 16-year period based on aggregated SA2-level projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
The level of residential development activity in Narellan Vale is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch
Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Narellan Vale has averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY2021 and FY2025, an estimated 68 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved so far in FY2026. Despite population decline during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.
The average value of new dwellings developed is $308,000, aligning with regional trends. This year, there have been $1.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan Vale has significantly less development activity, at 56.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, this is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. New development consists of 69.0% detached dwellings and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across price brackets.
This marks a significant shift from existing patterns, which are currently 97.0% houses, likely due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 681 people per dwelling approval, Narellan Vale reflects a highly mature market. Future projections estimate Narellan Vale adding 280 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Narellan Vale
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Narellan Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally
Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones are Mount Annan Christian College Expansion, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct, and Narellan Vale Residential Expansion (Stage 3 & 4). The following list details those most relevant.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Australian Botanic Garden Mount Annan Master Plan
A transformation of Australia's largest botanic garden into a world-class visitor destination. The Master Plan, released in July 2025, outlines a strategic vision to restore Dharawal Country and regenerate endangered Cumberland Plain vegetation. Key features include a new visitor core designed in the shape of a coolamon, a lakes precinct, world-class biomes, a First Nations Garden, and a research and innovation cluster expanding the Australian PlantBank and National Herbarium of NSW. The project includes over 10km of new walking and cycling trails, car-free zones utilizing e-mobility, and new visitor accommodation and environmental education facilities.
Western Sydney Studios
Western Sydney Studios, formerly known as Oran Park Film Studios, is a world-class production campus featuring three large soundstages with 14m internal clearance, production offices, and set construction workshops. Developed by Greenfields Development Company, the site spans 3 hectares in the Oran Park Employment Zone. The project has received development consent from Camden Council and is currently participating in the NSW Government's $100 million Expression of Interest process for a second major Sydney film studio. Key features include 400 car spaces, truck parking, and proximity to a 2ha backlot.
Oran Park Town
Oran Park Town is a major masterplanned community in Sydney's south-west, transforming approximately 1,300 hectares of former raceway and dairy farmland into a fully self-contained urban centre. Developed through a partnership between Greenfields Development Company and Landcom, the project will deliver 10,000 dwellings for over 35,000 residents. The town centre is undergoing significant expansion with the Atura Hotel (184 rooms, operated by EVT Group) having topped out in late 2025 and scheduled to open in 2026. Stage 3 of the Podium shopping centre is in planning, and a town centre planning proposal for further expansion was lodged with Camden Council in March 2026. Commercial office buildings TRN House and LPC House are progressing, with basement construction underway. The broader $330 million health precinct continues to grow. The adjacent Pondicherry Precinct (242 hectares) was fully rezoned in June 2025 and bulk earthworks commenced in late 2025, adding capacity for approximately 2,200 to 4,200 dwellings and 8,830 additional residents. The community also includes multiple schools, Western Sydney Studios, extensive parklands, and a planned rail connection to the Western Sydney Aerotropolis.
Narellan Road Upgrade
A $152 million, 6.8km upgrade of Narellan Road between Camden Valley Way, Narellan and Blaxland Road, Campbelltown. The project upgraded the road to six lanes divided with three lanes in each direction, improved intersections, installed traffic management systems, and added shared pedestrian/cyclist paths. Jointly funded by the Australian and NSW governments to reduce congestion, improve safety and travel times in this key transport corridor servicing south-western Sydney.
Menangle Park Estate
Menangle Park Estate is a 498 hectare masterplanned community on the Nepean River in Sydneys south west, planned for more than 4,000 residential lots with a future town centre, schools, parks, sports fields and a display village. Civil works and early stages have been delivered, the first community park and display village are opening, and new land releases continue to be marketed while further stages are constructed and registered over the next decade.
Studley Park House Redevelopment
Adaptive reuse of the state-heritage Studley Park House as a 5-room boutique hotel and function spaces, plus a new connected 44-key hotel building and four residential flat buildings (148 apartments). Works include remediation, demolition of dilapidated defence structures, new road access, landscaping, civil infrastructure and Community Title subdivision.
Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct
NSW Government concept for a new correctional precinct to address metropolitan prison capacity. A previously examined option in Wollondilly (south-west Sydney) was ruled out by the government in 2018 following site investigations and community opposition. Subsequent government materials and media reporting indicate the state has continued assessing metropolitan capacity solutions and alternative precinct locations (including areas around Greater Parramatta/Camellia), but as of August 2025 no confirmed site, scope or delivery timeline has been announced. The project therefore remains an uncommitted concept under assessment rather than an approved build.
Mount Annan Christian College Expansion
Multi-phase campus expansion including demolition of existing buildings, tree removal, and staged construction of new single and multi-storey general learning areas. The masterplan aims to increase student capacity from 850 to 1,410 students. Block B (Kindergarten to Year 2 facilities) was completed in September 2023, with additional learning areas under construction. The development includes new classrooms, learning streets, car park reconfiguration, and associated site works across the 37-acre semi-rural campus.
Employment
The exceptional employment performance in Narellan Vale places it among Australia's strongest labour markets
Narellan Vale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 7.5%. As of December 2025, 4751 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.
Workforce participation was high at 84.8% compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A significant portion, 30.1%, worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, with notable concentration in construction at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical employment was limited at 4.2% compared to the regional average of 11.5%.
The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 7.5%, labour force grew by 7.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% and unemployment marginally increase. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan Vale's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis
The suburb of Narellan Vale had a median income among taxpayers of $58,578 and an average income of $69,957 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures were slightly above the national averages for Greater Sydney, which stood at $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. By March 2026, estimates based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% suggest median income will be approximately $64,623 and average income around $77,177. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Narellan Vale rank between the 70th and 80th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that the majority of residents (38.4%, or 2,697 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 30.9% occupy this range. Significantly, 30.3% of residents earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Narellan Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region
In Narellan Vale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 97.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 2.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types of dwellings. This is in contrast to Sydney metropolitan area's dwelling structure, which comprised 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan Vale stood at 26.2%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (52.1%) or rented (21.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure in Narellan Vale was recorded at $460, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Narellan Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Narellan Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households constitute 84.1% of all households, including 45.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.9%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Educational attainment in Narellan Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics
The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 29.8%. Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.9% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.
Educational participation is notably high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Public transport analysis shows 39 active transport stops in Narellan Vale, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 58 individual routes, together offering 2,056 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 163 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's residential nature; cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 30.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.
Service frequency averages 293 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Narellan Vale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts
Narellan Vale faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.
The rate of private health cover is approximately 55% of the total population (~3,835 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 8.4% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 68.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (948 people), which is lower than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Narellan Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics
Narellan Vale, as per the census of 28 June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 85.1% born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 89.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 63.4%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 29.9%, English 26.9%, and Other 7.3%.
Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.6%, while Serbian and Polish were also present in higher proportions than the regional averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Narellan Vale's population is younger than the national pattern
Narellan Vale has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than Australia's national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group makes up 15.5% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort constitutes 13.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.1% to 4.7% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.0% to 13.3%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 14.7% to 13.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Narellan Vale. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 334 people (101%) from 330 to 665. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 82% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.