Narellan Vale

Narellan Vale has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of February 2026, the estimated population of Narellan Vale is around 7,272. This reflects a growth of 341 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6,931. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,191 in June 2024, along with validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,840 persons per square kilometer, placing Narellan Vale in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 4.9% since the census is within 2.0 percentage points of its SA3 area (6.9%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Narellan Vale are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest lower quartile growth, with Narellan Vale expected to grow by 336 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 2.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narellan Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Narellan Vale averaged around 13 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 68 homes. So far in FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 0.1 new residents arrived per new home annually. This pace matches or outpaces demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $308,000, in line with regional trends. In FY-26, there have been $1.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Narellan Vale has significantly less development activity than Greater Sydney, with 57.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, it is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Current new development consists of 69.0% detached dwellings and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options.

This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 97.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Narellan Vale has around 676 people per approval, indicating a mature, established area. Future projections show Narellan Vale adding 189 residents by 2041, as per the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narellan Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Mount Annan Christian College Expansion, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Australian Botanic Garden Mount Annan Masterplan, and Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Narellan Vale places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Narellan Vale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.6%. As of September 2025, 4,609 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is high at 82.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A significant portion, 30.1%, of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have a limited presence at 4.2% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 5.6% while labour force grew by 5.3%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, labour force grow by 2.4%, and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Narellan Vale's median income among taxpayers is $58,578. The average income in the suburb is $69,957. This is above the national average. Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $63,768 (median) and $76,155 (average). Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Narellan Vale rank highly nationally, between the 70th and 80th percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that 38.4% of residents earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week (2,792 people). This reflects patterns seen in the surrounding region where 30.9% similarly occupy this income range. The area demonstrates affluence with 30.3% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narellan Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narellan Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan Vale stood at 26.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.1% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Narellan Vale was $460, similar to Sydney metro's figure of $470. Nationally, Narellan Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narellan Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.1% of all households, consisting of 45.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.9%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 1.1% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7 people.

Educational attainment in Narellan Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (29.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.9%), secondary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (4.2%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narellan Vale has 39 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 58 unique routes that facilitate a total of 2056 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents' average proximity to the nearest stop being 163 meters. Predominantly residential, most inhabitants commute outward, with cars remaining the primary mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, a notable 30.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 293 trips are made daily, translating to approximately 52 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Narellan Vale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narellan Vale faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 55% of the total population (~3969 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.8 and 8.4% of residents respectively. 68.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.3% of residents aged 65 and over (967 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Narellan Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan Vale, as per a study conducted in June 2021, showed low cultural diversity with 85.1% of its population born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 89.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 63.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 49.2%. Ancestry-wise, Australians topped at 29.9%, English followed at 26.9%, while Other stood at 7.3%.

Notably, Maltese (1.6% vs regional 1.0%), Serbian (0.5% vs 0.5%) and Polish (0.9% vs 0.6%) groups were overrepresented in Narellan Vale compared to the region.

Narellan Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Narellan Vale has a median age of 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 years and somewhat younger than Australia's national average of 38 years. The 15-24 age group makes up 15.2% of the population in Narellan Vale, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 12.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.1% to 4.7% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.7% to 13.1%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 15.0% to 13.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Narellan Vale. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to rise substantially by 95%, from 341 to 667 people. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 84% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 55-64 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.