Narellan Vale

Narellan Vale has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The population of the Narellan Vale statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 7,270 as of November 2025, reflecting an increase of 339 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 4.9% increase from the previous population count of 6,931 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,191 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional five validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,839 persons per square kilometer, placing Narellan Vale (SA2) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 4.9% since the census is within 2.0 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to increase by 335 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 2.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Narellan Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Narellan Vale has experienced around 13 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 68 homes. So far in FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were added between FY-21 and FY-25.

Commercial approvals registered this financial year total $1.1 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney's regional average, Narellan Vale has significantly less development activity, at 57.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 69.0% detached dwellings and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 97.0% houses. With around 676 people per dwelling approval, Narellan Vale reflects a highly mature market. Future projections show Narellan Vale adding 194 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Narellan Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Mount Annan Christian College Expansion, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Australian Botanic Garden Mount Annan Masterplan, and Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Narellan Vale places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Narellan Vale has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.4% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.7%.

As of September 2025, 4625 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 2.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Narellan Vale is higher at 69.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training sectors. Notably, construction employment levels are 1.5 times the regional average, while professional & technical services have limited presence with only 4.2% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. In the past year, employment increased by 5.7%, while labour force grew by 5.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1% and unemployment increased slightly. State-level data up to 25-Nov shows NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, lower than the national average of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan Vale's current employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Narellan Vale has an income level slightly above the national average, according to the latest data from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Narellan Vale is $58,578, with an average income of $69,957. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since the financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $63,768 (median) and $76,155 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Narellan Vale all rank highly nationally, between the 70th and 80th percentiles. The earnings profile reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket dominates, with 38.4% of residents (2,791 people), reflecting patterns seen in the broader area where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Notably, 30.3% of residents earn above $3,000 weekly, indicating prosperity that drives local economic activity. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narellan Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Narellan Vale, as per the latest Census, 97.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 2.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's composition of 92.7% houses and 7.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narellan Vale stood at 26.2%, with mortgaged properties making up 52.1% and rented dwellings accounting for 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,383. The median weekly rent in Narellan Vale was $460, slightly higher than the Sydney metro figure of $480. Nationally, Narellan Vale's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and its median weekly rents were substantially higher at $460 versus the national average of $375.

Narellan Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 84.1% of all households, consisting of 45.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 15.9%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 1.1% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Educational attainment in Narellan Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (29.8%). Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.9% in primary, 8.8% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 39 active transport stops in Narellan Vale, all of which are bus stops. They are served by 58 different routes, offering a total of 2056 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents typically located 163 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 293 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 52 weekly trips per stop.

Narellan Vale's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Narellan Vale's health metrics are close to national benchmarks. Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Approximately 55% of Narellan Vale's total population (~3,968 people) have private health cover, compared to 56.7% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 8.8 and 8.4% of residents respectively. 68.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 71.6% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 12.8% of Narellan Vale's residents are aged 65 and over (930 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Narellan Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan Vale had a cultural diversity below average, with 85.1% of its population born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 89.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 63.4% of people in Narellan Vale, compared to 64.3% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.9%), English (26.9%), and Other (7.3%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.6%, Serbian was equally represented at 0.5%, and Polish were slightly overrepresented at 0.9%.

Narellan Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Narellan Vale's median age is 35 years, slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 15.1% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort comprises 12.7%. From 2021 to present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.1% to 4.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.0% to 13.6%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 14.7% to 13.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Narellan Vale. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 358 people (112%), from 319 to 678. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 35-44 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.