Narellan Vale

Narellan Vale has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Narellan Vale is around 7,026, reflecting an increase of 95 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population estimate by AreaSearch was 7,032 as of June 2024, based on ABS ERP data and validated new addresses. This results in a population density ratio of 2,744 persons per square kilometer, placing Narellan Vale in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Natural growth contributed approximately 65% of overall population gains recently. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 335 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 6.2%.

The level of residential development activity in Narellan Vale is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Narellan Vale had approximately 11 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 58 homes. As of FY26, there has been 1 approval recorded. The average new resident per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 is 0.2. This indicates that construction pace matches or exceeds demand, offering more housing options and potentially exceeding population growth expectations.

Average construction cost value for new homes is $308,000, below regional norms. In FY26, $41,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Narellan Vale has significantly less development activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. New development consists of 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes. This marks a shift from current housing patterns, which are predominantly houses (97.0%).

Narellan Vale has around 1578 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a highly mature market. Future projections estimate an addition of 438 residents by 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Narellan Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eleven projects that may affect the region. Notable projects include Mount Annan Christian College Expansion, Studley Park House Redevelopment, Outer Sydney Metropolitan Correctional Precinct, and Narellan Vale Residential Expansion (Stage 3 & 4). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Narellan Vale places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Narellan Vale has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 1.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.5%.

As of June 2025, 4,593 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.8%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is high at 69.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 4.2% of residents employed in this sector compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 5.5%, and the labour force grew by 5.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, with labour force growth of 2.9% and an increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Narellan Vale's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Narellan Vale's median income among taxpayers was $58,578 in financial year 2022, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is higher than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994. The average income in Narellan Vale stood at $69,957, compared to Greater Sydney's $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median and average incomes would be approximately $65,965 and $78,779 respectively as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Narellan Vale rank highly nationally, between the 70th and 80th percentiles. The earnings profile reveals that 38.4% of residents (2,697 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, reflecting a pattern seen in the broader area where 30.9% occupy this income range. Notably, 30.3% of Narellan Vale's residents earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.0% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Narellan Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Narellan Vale's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 97.3% houses and 2.7% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). This compares to Sydney metro's 92.7% houses and 7.3% others. Home ownership in Narellan Vale was higher at 26.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 52.1% and rented ones at 21.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, lower than Sydney metro's $2,383. Weekly rent was $460, similar to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Narellan Vale's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Narellan Vale features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 84.1% of all households, including 45.0% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.9%, with lone person households at 14.8% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Educational attainment in Narellan Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, substantially below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 29.8%. Educational participation is high, with 30.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: primary (10.9%), secondary (8.8%), and tertiary (4.2%).

Narellan Vale's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,627 students, serving balanced educational opportunities typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 1023). The area functions as an education hub with 37.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 16.8, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 37 active transport stops in Narellan Vale, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 58 different routes, together offering 1,734 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents averaging a distance of 163 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 247 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Narellan Vale's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Narellan Vale's health metrics are close to national benchmarks with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~3,835 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, impacting 8.8 and 8.4% of residents respectively, while 68.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 71.6% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 12.8% of residents are aged 65 and over (899 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Narellan Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Narellan Vale had a cultural diversity below average, with 85.1% born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 89.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion at 63.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 64.3%. Top ancestral groups were Australian (29.9%), English (26.9%), and Other (7.3%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.6% (vs regional 1.8%), Serbian at 0.5% (vs 0.5%), and Polish at 0.9% (vs 0.8%).

Narellan Vale's population is younger than the national pattern

Narellan Vale's median age is 35 years, which is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 15-24 age group comprises 15.1% of Narellan Vale's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. However, the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.7%, which is less prevalent compared to Greater Sydney. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 3.1% to 4.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.0% to 13.6%, and the 45-54 cohort has dropped from 14.7% to 13.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Narellan Vale. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 367 people (119%), from 309 to 677. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 55-64 age groups are expected to have reduced numbers.