Ambarvale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ambarvale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Ambarvale's population is estimated at around 7,417. This reflects an increase of 163 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,254. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,765 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,602 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the suburb expected to increase by 7,218 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of approximately 99.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ambarvale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Ambarvale has seen approximately 7 dwellings granted development approval annually. Between FY21 and FY25, around 36 homes received approval, with another 4 approved so far in FY26. Each dwelling built attracted an average of 5.6 people to the area over these five years.

This high demand relative to new supply typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost for new properties is $417,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing options. Commercial development activity has been minimal this financial year, with approvals totalling $198,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ambarvale's building activity is 85.0% lower per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, although recent periods have seen some increase in development activity.

However, this activity remains below national averages, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 78.0% standalone homes and 22.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Ambarvale's traditional suburban character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 789 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established market. Future projections estimate Ambarvale will add 7,404 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Ambarvale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified four projects potentially affecting the area: Greater Macarthur Growth Area, Ambarvale Place Masterplan & Redevelopment, Kerridge Release Area (Ambarvale South), and Spring Farm Riverside Estate.

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Employment drivers in Ambarvale are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Ambarvale's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs with varied sector representation. Its unemployment rate was 8.8% as of an unspecified past year, with employment growth estimated at 5.8%.

As of June 2025, 3,277 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Sydney's by 4.6 percentage points. Workforce participation in Ambarvale lags behind Greater Sydney at 50.7% compared to 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with manufacturing levels at 1.8 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.4% of Ambarvale's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending unspecified, employment increased by 5.8% while labour force grew by 4.5%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a slight rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Ambarvale's local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Ambarvale's median income among taxpayers was $44,985, with an average of $51,630. This is below the national average and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $50,658 (median) and $58,141 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 31st percentile ($1,431 weekly), while personal income sits at the 15th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 33.3% of Ambarvale's community (2,469 individuals), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Ambarvale, with only 79.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Ambarvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ambarvale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.4% houses and 13.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ambarvale was at 22.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (33.2%) or rented (44.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,802, below Sydney metro's average of $2,100. Median weekly rent was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Ambarvale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Ambarvale features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.5% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 23.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.5%, with lone person households at 18.2% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Ambarvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 10.6% of residents holding them, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.2% of residents aged 15+ having vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 27.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.2% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education. Ambarvale's three schools have a combined enrollment of 1,389 students as of the reported date. The area shows varied educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 931. Education provision is balanced, with two primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 49 active transport stops in Ambarvale, served by buses via 29 routes. These routes facilitate 2,081 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility is excellent, with residents typically located 154 meters from the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 297 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ambarvale is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Ambarvale faces significant health challenges with a notably higher prevalence of common health conditions compared to averages, particularly among older age groups. Approximately 47% (~3,517 individuals) have private health cover, significantly lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.7% and 9.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.8% claim to be free from medical ailments compared to 70.3% across Greater Sydney. In Ambarvale, 14.4% (~1,068 individuals) are aged 65 or over, with health outcomes among seniors requiring more attention than the broader population.

Ambarvale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ambarvale, surveyed in June 2021, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.7% of its population born overseas and 24.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 55.8% of Ambarvale's population as of June 2021. Islam, however, was underrepresented compared to the Greater Sydney average, making up only 5.9%.

In terms of ancestry (parental country of birth), Australians were the largest group at 24.0%, followed by English at 21.8% and Other at 15.6%. Notably, Samoan ethnicity was slightly overrepresented in Ambarvale at 2.3%, Spanish at 1.0%, and Filipino at 3.0%.

Ambarvale hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ambarvale's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ambarvale has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present day, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 3.2% to 4.7%, while the 15-24 age group has increased from 14.0% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has declined from 12.2% to 10.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Ambarvale, with the strongest projected growth in the 15-24 cohort (98%), adding 1,119 residents to reach a total of 2,262.