Ambarvale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Ambarvale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Ambarvale statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 7,627 people. This figure reflects an increase of 373 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,254 people in the area. The change was inferred from the resident population of 7,336 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,676 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Ambarvale (SA2)'s 5.1% growth since census positions it within 2.5 percentage points of the state's population growth rate of 7.6%, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to increase by 7,223 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 94.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ambarvale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Ambarvale has seen approximately 16 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 83 homes received approval, with another 29 approved in FY-26 so far. Each dwelling built over these years resulted in an average of 2.5 new residents yearly.

The average construction value for new homes was $417,000. In FY-26, there have been $467,000 in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ambarvale's building activity is 66.0% lower per person. New development consists of 73.0% standalone homes and 27.0% attached dwellings. The area has around 288 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

By 2041, Ambarvale is projected to add 7,199 residents. Current development rates may struggle to match population growth.

Ambarvale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to impact the area: Greater Macarthur Growth Area, Ambarvale Place Masterplan & Redevelopment, Kerridge Release Area (Ambarvale South), and Spring Farm Riverside Estate. These are detailed below as they are most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Ambarvale are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Ambarvale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, representing various sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.6%.

As of September 2025, 3,340 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Ambarvale lags at 50.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with the latter being particularly notable at 1.8 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services are under-represented, comprising only 4.4% of Ambarvale's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 5.6% and labour force grew by 5.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.3%. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9% compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ambarvale's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.1% in five years and 12.9% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Ambarvale's median taxpayer income is $44,985 and average income is $51,630. This is below the national average. Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 and average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $48,971 (median) and $56,204 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Ambarvale's household income ranks at the 31st percentile ($1,431 weekly), with personal income at the 15th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 33.3% of the community (2,539 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Ambarvale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ambarvale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 86.4% houses and 13.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 78.5% houses and 21.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ambarvale stood at 22.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.2% and rented ones at 44.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,802, below Sydney metro's average of $2,100. Median weekly rent in Ambarvale was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Ambarvale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Ambarvale features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 79.5% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 21.1% couples without children, and 23.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 20.5%, with lone person households at 18.2% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Ambarvale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.8%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (27.5%). Educational participation is high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.2% in primary, 9.9% in secondary, and 4.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.2% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 52 operational transport stops in Ambarvale, offering a variety of bus services. These stops are served by 29 distinct routes, facilitating a total of 2,138 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is deemed excellent, with residents on average situated 154 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 305 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Ambarvale is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Ambarvale faces significant health challenges with a notably higher prevalence of common conditions compared to average, particularly among older age groups. The rate of private health cover in Ambarvale is approximately 47% (~3616 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 50.5% and the national average of 55.7%. Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 9.7% and 9.1% of residents respectively.

Conversely, 64.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 70.3% across Greater Sydney. Ambarvale has a higher proportion of seniors, with 14.4% (~1098 people) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among these older residents require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Ambarvale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ambarvale, surveyed in 2016-2021, had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 27.7% of its population born overseas and 24.7% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ambarvale, comprising 55.8% of its population. However, Islam's representation was notably lower at 5.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's average of 12.5%.

Regarding ancestry, Australians made up 24.0%, English 21.8%, and Other groups 15.6% of Ambarvale's population. Notably, Samoan (2.3%), Spanish (1.0%), and Filipino (3.0%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Ambarvale hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ambarvale's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Ambarvale has a higher percentage of residents aged 5-14 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.0%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 75-84 has grown from 3.2% to 4.7%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 14.0% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Ambarvale, with the strongest projected growth in the 15-24 cohort, expected to grow by 92%, adding 1,086 residents to reach a total of 2,261.