Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 11,063. This figure represents a growth of 103 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,960. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 11,059 in June 2024 and six additional validated addresses after the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 311 persons per square kilometer. Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's growth rate of 0.9% since the Census is within 2.2 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.1%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021, are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on current demographic trends and population numbers, Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's population is expected to increase by 149 persons by 2041, representing a total growth of 1.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has seen approximately 15 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, totaling 78 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25 and 3 so far in FY-26. Over these years, an average of 0.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed has been recorded. This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value for new homes is $221,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $690,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park shows substantially reduced construction levels, 67.0% below the regional average per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1268 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park will gain 141 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Crangan Bay Residential Estate, Lake Munmorah Recreation Facility, Lakes Ridge Residential Estate, and Darkinjung LALC & Landcom Housing Project. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 4,479 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate matching Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation lags at 44.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 3.4% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, but labour force grew by 2.7%, raising unemployment by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data as of Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.5%, with employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4%% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park had a median taxpayer income of $49,223 and an average income of $59,696. Both figures are below the national averages of $61,658 (median) and $74,813 (average). Greater Sydney's figures stood at $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from financial year 2022 to March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,441 (median) and $66,024 (average). Census data indicates Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 6th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.2% of individuals earn between $400 and $799, differing from the regional pattern where 30.9% earn between $1,500 and $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, as per the latest Census data, 94.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is in contrast to Sydney metropolitan areas where 83.2% of dwellings are houses, with the rest being other types of housing (16.7%). Home ownership in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park stands at 53.3%, higher than Sydney metro's average. The remaining dwellings are either mortgaged (29.0%) or rented (17.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area is $1,733, lower than the Sydney metro average of $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure is $380, slightly higher than the national average of $375 but close to the Sydney metro average of $385.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.6% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.4%, with lone person households at 31.9% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (34.6%).

A total of 23.6% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, comprising 8.5% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education. Six schools operate within Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, educating approximately 2,297 students. The area functions as an education hub with 20.8 school places per 100 residents, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park area shows that there are 104 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 58 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 557 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 165 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 79 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately five weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, where a range of health conditions impact both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (around 5,476 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 14.4% and 9.5% of residents respectively, while 53.9% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 35.2% (around 3,893 people), than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Munmorah-Mannering Park, surveyed in June-August 2016, had a population where 87.5% were born in Australia, 91.6% were citizens, and 97.3% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion, practiced by 61.0% of the population, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (8.2%).

Notably, Maltese ethnicity had a higher representation at 1.0%, while Australian Aboriginal was at 4.2% (compared to regional figures of 1.0% and 4.5%) and Lebanese at 0.3% (versus 0.2%).

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is 52, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group represents 15.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure and well above the national average of 6%. The 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group grew from 13.4% to 15.4%, while the 85+ group increased from 3.5% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 10.5% to 8.7%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 16.7% to 15.1%. By 2041, Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is expected to see notable demographic shifts. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 99% (511 people), reaching 1,030 from 518. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 age groups.