Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch indicates that the population of Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park stands at approximately 11,086 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 126 residents (1.1%) relative to the 10,960 citizens recorded in the 2021 Census. The calculation is based on the ABS estimated resident population of 11,084 in June 2025 and 6 validated new addresses registered after the Census. This population level translates to a density of 312 persons per square kilometer, which indicates low density and capacity for future housing expansion. The local 1.1% post-census growth is 2.3 percentage points behind the broader SA4 region (3.4%), showing stable local demand. Net population expansion was almost entirely driven by international migration, which acted as the single key contributor to growth.

Projections utilize ABS and Geoscience Australia datasets released in 2024 with a 2022 baseline. In instances where these statistics are unavailable, the NSW State Government projections from 2022 with a 2021 baseline are substituted. Demographic growth rates across different age cohorts are applied to all zones for the 2032 to 2041 period. Looking ahead, local expansion is expected to align with the bottom quartile of national averages, with the population projected to rise by 152 people by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a cumulative increase of 1.4% over 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park averages approximately 15 building approvals annually, with 78 residential approvals registered over the last 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 97 during FY-26. Because only 0.7 additional residents were added per built home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply matches or outpaces demand, ensuring healthy options for buyers and supporting population growth beyond standard forecasts. The average construction cost for new housing is $251,000, which is below the regional norm and indicates affordable entry points. Commercial building approvals stand at $690,000 for the current financial year, highlighting the quiet, residential character of the area.

Construction activity in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is quiet compared to Greater Sydney, tracking 67.0% below the regional per capita average. This restricted volume of new supply tends to support valuation levels and demand for existing houses. The development rate is also lower than the national average, indicating a mature residential landscape and potential zoning constraints. Detached houses account for 83.0% of new projects, while attached dwellings make up 17.0%, keeping density low and catering to buyers seeking spacious yards. The ratio of 1269 people per residential approval reflects a low-turnover development environment.

Demographic projections indicate that Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park will add 150 residents by 2041 based on recent quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. Current levels of building activity are expected to comfortably accommodate this growth, ensuring balanced conditions for purchasers and potentially allowing actual growth to surpass baseline expectations.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Local development trends are heavily influenced by zoning changes, infrastructure investments, and major projects. AreaSearch has identified 9 projects expected to impact the local area. Key developments include Crangan Bay Residential Estate, Lake Munmorah Recreation Facility, Lakes Ridge Residential Estate, and Darkinjung LALC & Landcom Housing Project, with details of the most relevant projects provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park displays a workforce that combines both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services playing a strong role, an unemployment rate of 4.6%, and an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year. As of March 2026, 4,564 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate stands at 4.6%, which is 0.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.1%, while workforce participation is notably lower at 50.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 69.1%. Census data indicates that 20.8% of residents worked from home, although the effects of Covid-19 lockdowns should be taken into account.

Most working residents are employed in healthcare and social assistance, construction, or retail trade. The local workforce is highly specialized in construction, with its employment share reaching 1.7 times the regional average. Conversely, professional and technical services account for only 3.4% of jobs, compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The imbalance between local Census jobs and the resident worker count indicates that many residents must travel outside the immediate area for work.

According to AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics, in the 12 months leading to March 2026, the count of employed residents rose by 2.9% while the total labor force expanded by 3.4%, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. This differs from Greater Sydney, where employment grew by 1.9%, the labor force expanded by 1.9%, and unemployment decreased slightly. National employment projections from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide context for future local demand. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future employment paths. Nationally, employment is expected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary by sector. Applying these trends to the local industry mix suggests employment among residents could grow by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, assuming a basic weighted model that does not adjust for local demographic shifts.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of postcode-level ATO statistics for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park SA2 recorded a median income of $53,436 and an average income of $63,442. These figures are below the national average and compare to $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average) across Greater Sydney. Factoring in WPI growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, the adjusted figures for March 2026 are estimated at $58,951 for median income and $69,989 for average income. Census data places family, household, and individual earnings in the area between the 6th and 10th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distributions, the $400 - 799 weekly income bracket is the largest, containing 31.2% of taxpayers (3,458 people), whereas the wider Sydney region is dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket at 30.9%. Residents face substantial mortgage and rent stress, with just 83.0% of household income remaining after housing costs, placing the area in the 7th percentile for affordability.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the latest Census, the local housing mix was dominated by standalone houses at 94.4%, with semi-detached homes, townhouses, and apartments accounting for 5.5%, compared to 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings across metropolitan Sydney. Home ownership rates are high, with 53.3% of dwellings owned outright, while 29.0% are held with a mortgage and 17.7% are rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment of $1,733 is below the metropolitan Sydney average of $2,427, and the median weekly rent of $380 compares to $470 in Sydney. Nationally, local mortgage commitments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, whereas rents are slightly above the national benchmark of $375.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families comprise 65.6% of local households, consisting of couples with children at 20.3%, couples without children at 32.8%, and single parents at 11.6%. The remaining 34.4% are non-family households, which consist of lone-person households at 31.9% and group living arrangements at 2.7%. The average household size is 2.2 residents, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational attainment levels present opportunities for targeted investment, with university graduation rates at 10.6%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Among residents with university qualifications, Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.5% and graduate diplomas at 1.1%. Vocational and technical training is highly represented, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (34.6%).

A total of 23.6% of local residents are enrolled in formal education. Primary school students represent 8.5% of the population, secondary students account for 6.8%, and tertiary students make up 2.6%.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport networks include 104 active bus stops within Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park. These facilities are served by 58 unique routes, which together provide 557 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is high, with the average distance to the nearest stop standing at 165 meters. As a residential community, most workers travel outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel at 96%. Vehicle ownership stands at 1.2 cars per household. Working from home was recorded at 20.8% of the workforce in the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era patterns.

Service frequency averages 79 runs per day across all active routes, representing approximately 5 weekly trips per stop. The map highlights the 100 closest transit stops to the central coordinate.

Health performance in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Analysis of mortality statistics and chronic disease trends shows that the area experiences notable health issues, with common ailments present across all demographics and showing higher concentrations among older residents. Private health insurance coverage is relatively low at 50% of the population (~5,598 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most common diagnoses, affecting 14.4% and 9.5% of the population, respectively. A total of 53.9% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Chronic illness rates are elevated within the working-age cohort. Residents aged 65 and over make up 36.0% of the population (3,994 people), compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes present challenges, though they rank more favorably when compared nationally than the broader local population.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

The local population has lower levels of cultural diversity than the national average, with 87.5% of residents born in Australia, 91.6% holding citizenship, and 97.3% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, representing 61.0% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

Based on parental country of birth, the main ancestral backgrounds are English at 33.7% (compared to a regional average of 19.0%), Australian at 31.7% (compared to a regional average of 17.8%), and Irish at 8.2%. The area also shows specific concentrations of Maltese heritage at 1.0% (equal to the 1.0% regional average), Australian Aboriginal ancestry at 4.2% (compared to 1.3% regionally), and New Zealand heritage at 0.7% (compared to 0.5% regionally).

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of 52 makes Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park older than Greater Sydney at 37 and the national average of 38. The 75 - 84 age cohort is highly represented at 15.5%, compared to 8.5% for the 25 - 34 cohort. This 75 - 84 concentration is higher than the national figure of 6.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 cohort expanded from 13.4% to 15.5% of the total population, while the 85+ cohort grew from 3.5% to 5.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 10.5% to 8.2% and the 65 to 74 group decreased from 16.7% to 15.3%. By 2041, demographic shifts will see the 85+ cohort expand by 87% (502 people), growing from 577 to 1,080. Residents aged 65+ will account for 98% of the projected population growth, while the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to contract.