Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's population is 11,063 as of Aug 2025. This shows an increase of 103 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,960. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 11,059 in June 2024 and six additional validated addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 311 persons per square kilometer. Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's growth rate of 0.9% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.1%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on the latest population numbers, Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is expected to expand by 149 persons, with an increase of 1.3% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has recorded approximately 15 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 78 homes. In FY26 so far, there have been three approvals. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years is 0.5 people. New construction matches or exceeds demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth.

The average expected construction cost of new properties is $221,000, below the regional average. Commercial approvals this financial year total $690,000, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Sydney's 67.0% higher per capita construction rate. Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's development consists of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, preserving its low-density nature. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 1268 people. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 141 residents by 2041.

Current construction levels should meet demand adequately, favouring buyers while potentially exceeding current population growth forecasts.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Crangan Bay Residential Estate, Lake Munmorah Recreation Facility, Lakes Ridge Residential Estate, and Darkinjung LALC & Landcom Housing Project. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in June 2025, aligning with Greater Sydney's rate.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.7%. There were 4,479 residents in work as of June 2025, with workforce participation at 44.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Professional & technical services employ only 3.4% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, with unemployment increasing by 0.3 percentage points. Statewide in NSW as of Sep-25, employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National projections from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park had a median income among taxpayers of $49,223 and an average level of $59,696 in the financial year 2022. This is below the national average, which was $56,994 across Greater Sydney during that period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since then, current estimates for March 2025 would be approximately $54,441 (median) and $66,024 (average). Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park all fall between the 6th and 11th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 31.2% of individuals earn between $400 and $799, differing from patterns across the region where those earning between $1,500 and $2,999 dominate at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, evaluated at the latest Census in 2016, dwelling structures consisted of 94.4% houses and 5.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park stood at 53.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.0% and rented ones at 17.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733 as of 2016, lower than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Weekly rent median stood at $380, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.6% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.4%, with lone person households at 31.9% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 10.6%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (34.6%).

A substantial 23.6% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.5% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education. There are six schools operating within Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park, educating approximately 2,297 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 20.8 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.6, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park has 104 active public transport stops. These are served by buses via 58 different routes, offering 557 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 165 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 79 trips per day, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 50% (~5,476 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical issues are arthritis (14.4%) and mental health concerns (9.5%), while 53.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 35.2% (3,893 people), higher than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Seniors' health outcomes face similar challenges as the general population.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Munmorah-Mannering Park had a cultural diversity index below average, with 87.5% of its population born in Australia and 91.6% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 97.3%. Christianity was the predominant religion (61.0%), higher than Greater Sydney's 56.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (8.2%). Notably, Maltese had a higher representation at 1.0% compared to the regional average of 1.0%, Australian Aboriginal was at 4.2% versus 4.5%, and Lebanese was at 0.3% against 0.2%.

Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park is 52, which is older than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and higher than the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group makes up 15.4% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage and well above the national average of 6%. Post-2021 Census data shows this age group grew from 13.4% to 15.4%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 3.5% to 4.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 10.5% to 8.7% and the 65-74 group dropped from 16.7% to 15.1%. By 2041, Lake Munmorah - Mannering Park's age composition is expected to shift notably. Leading this change, the 85+ group will grow by 99%, reaching 1,030 from 518. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts.