Toukley - Norah Head
Statistical Area - sa2

Toukley - Norah Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Toukley - Norah Head's population was approximately 9,872 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 37 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,909. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 9,850 in June 2024 and an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 938 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the area is projected to experience above median population growth nationally, with an expected increase of 1,764 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, representing a total gain of 17.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley - Norah Head, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Toukley - Norah Head has seen approximately 34 dwellings granted development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25172 homes received approval, with a further nine approved in FY26 as of now. The population decline in recent years has resulted in adequate development activity relative to other areas, benefiting buyers seeking affordable housing options, with new dwellings averaging an expected construction cost value of $366,000, below the regional average.

This financial year, $34.0 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley - Norah Head has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally in terms of assessed areas, leading to relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity consists of 68% standalone homes and 32% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points. The area's estimated population per dwelling approval is 543 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

By 2041, Toukley - Norah Head is projected to grow by 1,739 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Toukley - Norah Head has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 11 projects that could impact the area significantly. Key projects include Central Coast Desalination Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade), and 5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Toukley - Norah Head shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Toukley - Norah Head has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.0%. The area has 4,152 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 6.7%, which is higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 47.9% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.6%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.0% while labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a smaller unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Toukley - Norah Head's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

In financial year 2022, Toukley - Norah Head's median income among taxpayers was $46,443 and the average was $55,378. This is below the national average. In Greater Sydney, the median income was $56,994 with an average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $52,299 and the average would be around $62,361 based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Toukley - Norah Head fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.2% of locals (2,783 people) predominantly earn between $400 and $799, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 to $2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toukley - Norah Head with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Toukley - Norah Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Toukley-Norah Head's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley-Norah Head stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 35.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in the area was $350, lower than Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Toukley-Norah Head's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were below the national figure of $375.

Toukley - Norah Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 60.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.2%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Toukley - Norah Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.7%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 32.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education. Toukley - Norah Head's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,025 students as of the latest data available. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 962) with balanced educational opportunities. The 3 schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 10.4, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley-Norah Head has 90 active public transport stops. These are served by 34 bus routes that together offer 738 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 170 meters to the nearest one.

The service frequency is high, with 105 daily trips across all routes and approximately 8 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Toukley - Norah Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley - Norah Head faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 48% of the total population (~4699 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.4%), while 57.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 29.2% (2886 people) of the population, higher than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's health profile.

Toukley - Norah Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley-Norah Head, surveyed in August 2016, had a population where 87.8% were born in Australia, 90.6% were citizens, and 96.0% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 56.7%. This is similar to Greater Sydney's 56.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.3%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 4.5%, Maltese at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Lebanese at 0.3% against a regional figure of 0.2%.

Toukley - Norah Head hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley - Norah Head's median age is 47 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group has a strong representation at 11.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.1%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.2%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.6% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Toukley - Norah Head's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 50%, adding 559 residents to reach 1,669. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 64% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 cohorts.