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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
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Sales Activity
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Sales Detail
Population
Toukley - Norah Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends
Toukley - Norah Head's population is 9,906 as of Nov 2025. This shows a decrease of 3 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 9,909. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 9,847 in June 2024 and additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 941 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.
AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data is not available, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, an above median population growth is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,764 persons, reflecting a gain of 17.2% over the 17 years based on latest annual ERP population numbers.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley - Norah Head, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally
Toukley - Norah Head has received approximately 34 dwelling approvals per year on average. Between the financial years 2021 to 2025, a total of 172 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved in the current financial year 2026. Despite population decline in recent years, development activity has been relatively adequate.
The average value for new dwellings is $312,000. In terms of commercial development, $34.0 million in approvals have been registered this financial year. Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley - Norah Head records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally for housing choices, indicating limited options for buyers. Recent construction comprises 68% detached dwellings and 32% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing various price points.
The estimated population per dwelling approval is 543 people. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain 1,705 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Infrastructure
Toukley - Norah Head has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally
The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 11 projects that are likely to impact the area. Among these key projects are Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, 5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development, and Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade). The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant
A proposed 30 ML/day reverse osmosis desalination plant to be built adjacent to the existing Toukley Sewage Treatment Plant. The project is a key drought response initiative under the Central Coast Water Security Plan, designed to be 'plan ready' with approvals in place for rapid construction if dam levels fall below critical triggers (currently 45% storage). It features a direct ocean intake structure located offshore between Noraville and Magenta to minimize beach impact and will provide a climate-independent water supply for up to 250,000 residents.
Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment
Proposed expansion and modernisation of Lake Haven Centre, a sub-regional shopping centre owned and managed by Vicinity Centres. Current GLA is approximately 43,207 sqm, anchored by Kmart, Coles, Woolworths, and ALDI. As of February 2026, the project remains in the long-term planning phase; while a formal development application for a full-scale redevelopment is yet to be lodged, Vicinity Centres has recently completed a major $2 million solar installation as part of its sustainability upgrades for the site.
Wyong Hospital Redevelopment
The $200 million Wyong Hospital Redevelopment (completed 2021-2022) delivered a new six-storey clinical services building (Block H) with expanded emergency department, ICU, paediatrics, medical imaging (including the hospital's first MRI), additional inpatient beds, and a medical assessment unit; plus refurbishment of existing facilities adding operating theatre capacity, expanded medical day unit, transit lounge, and cancer day unit expansion. The project significantly increased healthcare capacity for the Central Coast community.
Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale)
Long term residential growth corridor along the Pacific Highway between Kanwal, Lake Haven and Gorokan, forming part of the Warnervale East and Greater Warnervale urban release area. The corridor is planned to deliver around 4,000 new homes over more than 20 years, primarily as low density house and land estates supported by local parks, schools, neighbourhood centres and transport links. Most of the release area is already zoned and either developed or approved, with remaining stages guided by Central Coast Development Control Plan Chapter 5.37 and the 2024 Greater Warnervale Structure Plan. Delivery is occurring progressively through estates such as Rosella Rise and other private subdivisions, with full build out expected by the mid 2040s.
Gorokan Waterfront Masterplan & Foreshore Revitalisation
Council-adopted masterplan guiding staged public domain upgrades to the Gorokan foreshore along Wallarah Road, including improved lake access, shared paths, playgrounds and associated aquatic infrastructure upgrades near Wallarah Point Peace Park. This record summarises the broader waterfront revitalisation intent rather than a single construction contract and reflects works progressing under Central Coast Council's Tuggerah Lakes catchment and open space programs. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1} :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade
Upgrades to the Toukley Town Centre, including footpath improvements, landscaping, and new street furniture to improve pedestrian safety, connectivity, and visual amenity. This is part of a broader masterplan to rejuvenate the town centre.
5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development
Bathla Group's proposed residential development of 40 large 2 and 3 bedroom apartments with 4 ground floor retail tenancies in a five-storey building, designed for luxury coastal living. The shoptop housing includes 28 two-bedroom and 13 three-bedroom units. Plans underwent updates after receiving operational consent in 2018, envisioning a prominent urban landmark.
Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade)
DA-approved boutique mixed-use project site with plans for seven luxury residential apartments and two premium commercial spaces in a waterfront location, currently for sale to a developer.
Employment
Employment performance in Toukley - Norah Head has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally
Toukley - Norah Head has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar employees, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.6% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.
There were 4,167 residents in work by September 2025, with an unemployment rate of 6.7%, which is 1.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Toukley - Norah Head was 52.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 23.9% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.
Construction has a particularly strong representation with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.6%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.1%, labour force expanded by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley - Norah Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch
AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Toukley - Norah Head SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $50,168 and an average of $58,099. This is below the national average. Greater Sydney's median was $60,817 with an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $54,613 (median) and $63,247 (average). The 2021 Census data ranks Toukley - Norah Head's household, family, and personal incomes between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 28.2% of locals fall into the $400 - 799 income category, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toukley - Norah Head, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Toukley - Norah Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Toukley - Norah Head's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley - Norah Head stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 35.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in the area was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Toukley - Norah Head's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Toukley - Norah Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households account for 60.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.2%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Toukley - Norah Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally
The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (32.6%). Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.
This includes 9.1% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Toukley-Norah Head has 90 operational public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are connected by 34 individual routes, facilitating 770 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents living an average of 170 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (94%). On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 23.9% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions.
The service frequency averages 110 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 8 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Toukley - Norah Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts
Toukley - Norah Head faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is notably low at approximately 48% (~4,774 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.
Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 11.9% and 10.4% of residents respectively. However, 57.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.2% (2,896 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present certain challenges, with national rankings generally in line with the overall population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Toukley - Norah Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics
Toukley-Norah Head, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity index of below average with 87.8% of its population born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, comprising 56.7% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English (31.3%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (9.4%).
Notably, Australian Aboriginal people made up 5.2% of Toukley-Norah Head's population, higher than the regional average of 1.3%. Maltese and Lebanese populations were also notable at 0.9% and 0.3%, respectively, differing from the regional averages of 1.0% and 2.6%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Toukley - Norah Head hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide
Toukley-Norah Head's median age is 47 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 11.2% of Toukley-Norah Head's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.1%. This 75-84 concentration is higher than the national average of 6.0%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.2%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.6% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Toukley-Norah Head's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 555 residents to reach 1,669. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 65% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.