Toukley - Norah Head
Statistical Area - sa2

Toukley - Norah Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Toukley - Norah Head's population was around 9,872 as of Aug 2025. This reflected a decrease of 37 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,909 people. The change was inferred from an estimated resident population of 9,850 in June 2024 and an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 938 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilised NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections showed an above median growth, with the area expected to expand by 1,764 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, recording a gain of 17.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley - Norah Head, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Toukley-Norah Head has seen approximately 34 dwellings granted development approval annually. Between the financial years FY21 and FY25172 homes were approved, with a further 9 approved in FY26 to date. The population decline in recent years has been accompanied by adequate development activity relative to this trend, which is beneficial for buyers due to more affordable housing options, with new dwellings averaging an expected construction cost of $366,000, below the regional average.

This financial year alone, $34.0 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. In comparison to Greater Sydney, Toukley-Norah Head has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 36th percentile nationally, which results in relatively constrained buyer choice and supports interest in existing dwellings. New building activity consists of 68.0% standalone homes and 32.0% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of housing options across different price points. The estimated population density is 543 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,739 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Toukley - Norah Head has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include the Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant Project, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade), and 5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Toukley - Norah Head shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Toukley-Norah Head has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with significant representation from essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 5.5%, and there was an estimated employment growth of 2.0% in the past year as of June 2025.

In this period, 4,152 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate lagged significantly at 47.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.6%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.0% while labour force increased by 2.7%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind the national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Toukley-Norah Head's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Toukley - Norah Head has a median income of $46,443 and an average of $55,378. This is below the national average. Greater Sydney's median income is $56,994 with an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $51,366 (median) and $61,248 (average). The 2021 Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Toukley - Norah Head are between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.2% of locals, with 2,783 people earning $400 - 799. In contrast, the metropolitan region's predominant income category is $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Toukley - Norah Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Toukley - Norah Head, as per the latest Census, 79.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 21.0% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In contrast, Sydney metro had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley - Norah Head stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 35.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900 but close to the national average of $1,863. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Toukley - Norah Head was $350, lower than Sydney metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Toukley - Norah Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 39.2%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households at 3.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Toukley - Norah Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (32.6%). Educational participation is high at 25.4%, comprising 9.1% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Toukley - Norah Head has 3 schools with a combined enrollment of 1,025 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 962) with balanced educational opportunities. These 3 schools focus on primary education only, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents are 10.4, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note that 'n/a' for school enrolments refers to parent campus information.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley-Norah Head has 90 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 34 individual services. Collectively, these routes facilitate 738 weekly passenger trips.

The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing just 170 meters from the nearest stop. On average, service frequency stands at 105 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately eight weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley - Norah Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley - Norah Head faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 48% of the total population (~4,699 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.4%), while 57.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 29.2%, higher than the Greater Sydney average of 22.3%. Senior health outcomes present challenges broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Toukley - Norah Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley-Norah Head has a cultural diversity below average, with 87.8% of its population born in Australia and 90.6% being citizens. English is the language spoken at home by 96.0% of residents. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 56.7%, slightly higher than the Greater Sydney average of 56.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (31.3%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people are overrepresented at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 4.5%, while Maltese and Lebanese populations are also slightly higher than regional averages at 0.9% and 0.3% respectively.

Toukley - Norah Head hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley-Norah Head's median age is 47 years, considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 11.2% of its population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage and well above the national figure of 6%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort represents only 9.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that between 2016 and 2021, the 75-84 age group grew from 9.4% to 11.2%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 9.6% to 10.9%. However, the 25-34 cohort decreased from 10.9% to 9.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Toukley-Norah Head's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 559 residents and reaching a total of 1,669. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 64% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, populations in the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decline.