Toukley - Norah Head
Statistical Area - sa2

Toukley - Norah Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Toukley - Norah Head's population is 9,872 as of Aug 2025. This shows a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 9,909 people. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 9,850 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since then. Population density is 938 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration primarily drove recent growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group are applied until 2041. Future projections indicate above median growth, with the area expected to reach 11,636 people by 2041, an increase of 17.6%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley - Norah Head, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Toukley - Norah Head has received approximately 34 dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 172 homes were approved annually. In the current financial year, FY26, one dwelling approval has been registered so far. Despite a decline in population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost of new homes is $366,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. Commercial approvals totaling $34.0 million have been registered this financial year, reflecting high local commercial activity. Comparatively, Toukley - Norah Head records about three-quarters the building activity per person compared to Greater Sydney. Nationally, it ranks at the 36th percentile of areas assessed for development activity, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings.

This is likely due to the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. In terms of dwelling types, new developments consist of 68% detached houses and 32% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points. The current population estimate per dwelling approval is 543 people, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate Toukley - Norah Head will add approximately 1,739 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Toukley - Norah Head has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include the Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant Project, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Seabreeze Royale Development Site at 11 Beach Parade, and the 5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Toukley - Norah Head has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Toukley-Norah Head has a balanced workforce encompassing white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 5.5% in the past year, seeing an employment growth of 2.0%.

As of June 2025, 4,152 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.7%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 47.9% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.6%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.0% while labour force grew by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. Nationally, unemployment stood at 4.5%, with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley-Norah Head's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Toukley - Norah Head's median taxpayer income is $46,443 and average income is $55,378 according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for the financial year 2022. This is below Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By March 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $51,366 (median) and $61,248 (average), based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Toukley - Norah Head's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally, as per the 2021 Census. The $400-$799 income bracket dominates with 28.2% of residents (2,783 people), differing from regional patterns where the $1,500-$2,999 bracket dominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Toukley - Norah Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Toukley - Norah Head, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Toukley - Norah Head was 38.9%, with the rest either mortgaged (25.9%) or rented (35.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900 and the national figure of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Toukley - Norah Head was recorded at $350, lower than Sydney metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Toukley - Norah Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 60.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.2%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households making up 3.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Toukley - Norah Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 14.7%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (32.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.1% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education. Toukley - Norah Head's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,025 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 962) with balanced educational opportunities. All 3 schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 10.4, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to parent campus data.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley-Norah Head has 90 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are 34 different routes servicing these stops, together offering 738 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average being located 170 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 105 trips per day, which equates to approximately eight weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley - Norah Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley - Norah Head faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 48% of the total population (~4699 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.4%), while 57.2% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.5%. As of 2021, 29.2% of residents are aged 65 and over (2886 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the general population's health profile.

Toukley - Norah Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley-Norah Head had a cultural diversity level below average, with 87.8% of its population born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 56.7% of Toukley-Norah Head's population, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.3%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (9.4%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 5.2% versus the regional average of 4.5%, Maltese at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Lebanese at 0.3% versus 0.2%.

Toukley - Norah Head hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley-Norah Head's median age is 47 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 11.2% of Toukley-Norah Head's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.1%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is higher than the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.2%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.6% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Toukley-Norah Head's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 559 residents to reach a total of 1,669. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 64% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.