Toukley - Norah Head

Toukley - Norah Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Toukley - Norah Head's population is around 9,910 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1 person (0.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,909 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,847 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 942 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to expand by 1,764 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 17.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley - Norah Head, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Toukley - Norah Head has experienced around 34 dwellings receiving development approval per year, with 172 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 16 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, development activity has been adequate in relative terms, which is a positive for buyers, while new dwellings are developed at an average construction cost of $312,000. Additionally, $34.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley - Norah Head records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks in the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing properties. This activity is likewise lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 68.0% detached dwellings and 32.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. The estimated count of 543 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Toukley - Norah Head will gain 1,701 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Toukley - Norah Head has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, 5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development, and Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Toukley - Norah Head has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Toukley - Norah Head features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.4%, and 3.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,206 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.3% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation lags significantly (53.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 23.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.6% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.2% while the labour force increased by 3.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This compares to Greater Sydney, where employment grew by 2.2%, the labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Toukley - Norah Head. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Toukley - Norah Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Toukley - Norah Head SA2's median income among taxpayers is $50,168, with an average of $58,099. This is below the national average, and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $54,613 (median) and $63,247 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Toukley - Norah Head all fall between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 28.2% of locals (2,794 people) in the $400 - 799 category, diverging from the metropolitan region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile.

Toukley - Norah Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Toukley - Norah Head, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Toukley - Norah Head was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 38.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (25.9%) or rented (35.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Toukley - Norah Head's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Toukley - Norah Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 60.8% of all households, comprising 20.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.2%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Toukley - Norah Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (14.7%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (32.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.1% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 90 active transport stops operating within Toukley - Norah Head, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 34 individual routes, collectively providing 770 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 170 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling. Some 23.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 110 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley - Norah Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Toukley - Norah Head, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,776 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.9 and 10.4% of residents, respectively, while 57.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 30.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,987 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Toukley - Norah Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley - Norah Head was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.8% of its population born in Australia, 90.6% being citizens, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Toukley - Norah Head is Christianity, which makes up 56.7% of people in the area, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Toukley - Norah Head are English, comprising 31.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 31.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 9.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 5.2% of Toukley - Norah Head (vs 1.3% regionally), Maltese at 0.9% (vs 1.0%) and Lebanese at 0.3% (vs 2.6%).

Toukley - Norah Head hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 47 years, Toukley - Norah Head's median age is considerably higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and also substantially exceeds the 38-year national average. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 11.5% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.8%. This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.5% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.6% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 8.8% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 10.6% to 9.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Toukley - Norah Head's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 46%, adding 526 residents to reach 1,669. Senior residents (65+) will drive 62% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts.