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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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Sales Activity
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Population
Toukley - Norah Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends
Toukley - Norah Head's population is around 9,908 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease of 1 person since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,909 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,908 in June 2025 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 941 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.
AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth, expecting a rise of 1,612 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 16.3% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley - Norah Head, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally
Toukley-Norah Head has received approximately 34 dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25172 homes were approved, with an additional 22 approved so far in FY26. The population has been declining recently, but development activity has remained relatively adequate, benefiting buyers due to increased housing options.
The average value of new dwellings developed is $312,000. This financial year alone, $34.0 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley-Norah Head has 19.0% less building activity per person and ranks in the 36th percentile nationally for areas assessed, offering more limited choices for buyers but supporting demand for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 68.0% detached dwellings and 32.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.
The estimated population per dwelling approval is 543 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Toukley-Norah Head is forecasted to gain 1,612 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Toukley - Norah Head
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Toukley - Norah Head has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 28thth percentile nationally
Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include the Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, 5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development, and Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade). The following list details those considered most relevant.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant
A proposed seawater desalination water treatment plant adjacent to the existing Toukley Sewage Treatment Plant, being developed as a 'plan ready' drought response project under the Central Coast Water Security Plan. The current concept is a reverse osmosis facility with an initial capacity of 30 ML/day, with provision in the EIS for staged expansion up to 40 ML/day to support normal water supply if needed. The preferred design uses a direct ocean intake located around one kilometre offshore from Jenny Dixon Reserve, with the transfer pump station relocated to the desalination plant site (replacing the earlier Lakes Beach underground well concept under Budgewoi Beach) and connected by a deep tunnel bored about 25 metres below ground. Brine would be discharged via the existing Norah Head ocean outfall. Council is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement, with a community drop-in session held in August 2025 and another planned for the second quarter of 2026. The plant would only be constructed if dam storage falls below the 45 percent trigger at Mangrove Creek Dam, with construction estimated to take 3 to 4 years once activated. GHD has been appointed as the specialist consultant supporting concept design and statutory approvals.
Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment
Proposed expansion and modernisation of Lake Haven Centre, a sub-regional shopping centre owned and managed by Vicinity Centres. Current GLA is approximately 43,207 sqm, anchored by Kmart, Coles, Woolworths, and ALDI. As of February 2026, the project remains in the long-term planning phase; while a formal development application for a full-scale redevelopment is yet to be lodged, Vicinity Centres has recently completed a major $2 million solar installation as part of its sustainability upgrades for the site.
Wyong Hospital Redevelopment
The $200 million Wyong Hospital Redevelopment (completed 2021-2022) delivered a new six-storey clinical services building (Block H) with expanded emergency department, ICU, paediatrics, medical imaging (including the hospital's first MRI), additional inpatient beds, and a medical assessment unit; plus refurbishment of existing facilities adding operating theatre capacity, expanded medical day unit, transit lounge, and cancer day unit expansion. The project significantly increased healthcare capacity for the Central Coast community.
Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale)
Long term residential growth corridor along the Pacific Highway between Kanwal, Lake Haven and Gorokan, forming part of the Warnervale East and Greater Warnervale urban release area. The corridor is planned to deliver around 4,000 new homes over more than 20 years, primarily as low density house and land estates supported by local parks, schools, neighbourhood centres and transport links. Most of the release area is already zoned and either developed or approved, with remaining stages guided by Central Coast Development Control Plan Chapter 5.37 and the 2024 Greater Warnervale Structure Plan. Delivery is occurring progressively through estates such as Rosella Rise and other private subdivisions, with full build out expected by the mid 2040s.
Gorokan Waterfront Masterplan & Foreshore Revitalisation
Council-adopted masterplan guiding staged public domain upgrades to the Gorokan foreshore along Wallarah Road, including improved lake access, shared paths, playgrounds and associated aquatic infrastructure upgrades near Wallarah Point Peace Park. This record summarises the broader waterfront revitalisation intent rather than a single construction contract and reflects works progressing under Central Coast Council's Tuggerah Lakes catchment and open space programs. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1} :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade
Upgrades to the Toukley Town Centre, including footpath improvements, landscaping, and new street furniture to improve pedestrian safety, connectivity, and visual amenity. This is part of a broader masterplan to rejuvenate the town centre.
5-8 Beach Parade Residential & Retail Development
Bathla Group's proposed residential development of 40 large 2 and 3 bedroom apartments with 4 ground floor retail tenancies in a five-storey building, designed for luxury coastal living. The shoptop housing includes 28 two-bedroom and 13 three-bedroom units. Plans underwent updates after receiving operational consent in 2018, envisioning a prominent urban landmark.
Seabreeze Royale Development Site (11 Beach Parade)
DA-approved boutique mixed-use project site with plans for seven luxury residential apartments and two premium commercial spaces in a waterfront location, currently for sale to a developer.
Employment
Employment performance in Toukley - Norah Head has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally
Toukley-Norah Head has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.4%.
Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 3.2%. In December 2025, 4,206 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.5% compared to Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate in Toukley-Norah Head is 52.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 23.9% of residents work from home.
Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly high employment share at 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.6%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 3.2% while labour force grew by 3.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley-Norah Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch
AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Toukley - Norah Head SA2 had a median income of $50,168 and an average of $58,099 among taxpayers. This is below the national average. Greater Sydney's median was $60,817 with an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,345 (median) and $64,095 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Toukley - Norah Head fall between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 28.2% of locals (2,794 people) predominantly earn $400 - $799, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Toukley - Norah Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Toukley - Norah Head dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley - Norah Head stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented dwellings at 35.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in the area was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Toukley - Norah Head's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Toukley - Norah Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households constitute 60.8% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.3% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.2%, with lone person households at 35.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Toukley - Norah Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally
The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (32.6%). Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.
This includes primary education (9.1%), secondary education (6.6%), and tertiary education (2.9%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Toukley-Norah Head has 90 active public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These are covered by 34 individual routes, offering 770 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 170 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the dominant mode at 94%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 23.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.
Service frequency averages 110 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Toukley - Norah Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts
Toukley - Norah Head faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~4,775 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.
The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (10.4%). Conversely, 57.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, lower than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age population health is notably challenging due to high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.9%, compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Toukley - Norah Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics
Toukley-Norah Head, surveyed in 2016, exhibited low cultural diversity: 87.8% born in Australia, 90.6% citizens, 96.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated at 56.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. Top ancestral groups were English (31.3%, regional average 19.0%), Australian (31.1%, regional average 17.8%), and Irish (9.4%).
Notable differences included Australian Aboriginal (5.2% vs regional 1.3%), Maltese (0.9% vs 1.0%), and Lebanese (0.3% vs 2.6%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Toukley - Norah Head hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide
Toukley-Norah Head's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 14.3% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.6%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15-24 age group grew from 9.6% to 11.2%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 9.4% to 10.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 10.9% to 9.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Toukley-Norah Head's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 46%, adding 495 residents to reach 1,575. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 60% of population growth, indicating demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, populations in the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to decline.