Kanwal

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kanwal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Kanwal statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 4,418. This figure reflects an increase of 224 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,194. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,307 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and validation of six new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,810 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Kanwal (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 5.3% between the 2021 Census and Nov 2025, exceeding both the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.7% and the SA3 area's growth rate. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in the Kanwal (SA2) during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Based on these aggregated projections, the Kanwal (SA2) is expected to increase by 455 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall growth rate of 6.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kanwal, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Kanwal has recorded around 14 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 73 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $205,000, below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. This financial year, $3.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kanwal records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 43rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing properties. This level is lower than the national average, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 61.0% standalone homes and 39.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets.

This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 86.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 385 people per approval, Kanwal indicates a mature market. Future projections estimate Kanwal adding 285 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Kanwal has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include The Sanctuary Estate Hamlyn Terrace, Cedarwood Estate, Yeramba Estates Central Coast Development, and Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kanwal remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Kanwal's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.7% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. As of September 2025, 2,059 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year. The unemployment rate is 0.4% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Kanwal lags at 47.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment increased by 2.9% while labour force grew by 3.7% over the year ending September 2025, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kanwal's employment mix suggests local employment growth of 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Kanwal's median income is $49,480 and average income is $59,403. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $53,864 (median) and $64,666 (average). Census 2021 data shows Kanwal's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 19th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution in Kanwal is dominated by a segment earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, comprising 30.3% of residents (1,338 individuals), similar to broader regional trends at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Kanwal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kanwal's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kanwal was at 34.3%, similar to Sydney metro, with the rest being mortgaged (37.7%) or rented (28.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kanwal was $1,733, lower than Sydney metro's $1,900. The median weekly rent was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Kanwal's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Kanwal has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 69.4% of all households, including 26.9% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.6%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, matching the Greater Sydney average.

Kanwal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications.

This includes advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.1%), secondary education (10.2%), and tertiary education (4.2%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kanwal has 45 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 50 different routes that together facilitate 875 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 145 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 125 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kanwal is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kanwal faces significant health challenges, with various conditions impacting both younger and older residents. Approximately half of Kanwal's total population (~2,229 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (10.9%) and arthritis (10.8%), while 58.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Kanwal has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 28.2% (1,245 people), versus 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's health profile.

Kanwal ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kanwal's population showed low cultural diversity, with 86.3% being citizens, 84.8% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.0%, similar to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (32.8%), English (29.2%), and Irish (7.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 4.5%. Maltese and Samoan populations also differed slightly from regional averages, with Maltese at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Samoan at 0.4% versus 0.1%.

Kanwal hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Kanwal is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kanwal has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (10.2%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.9%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75-84 has increased from 9.4% to 10.2%, while the proportion of residents aged 0-4 has decreased from 5.0% to 4.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Kanwal's age structure. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 56% (159 people), reaching 447 from 287. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting Kanwal's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the age groups of 15-24 and 0-4 are projected to have reduced numbers.