Kanwal

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kanwal reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Kanwal's population is estimated at around 4,634 people. This reflects a growth of 440 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,194. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,581 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of six new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,899 persons per square kilometer for Kanwal, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's population growth rate of 10.5% between the 2021 Census and November 2025 exceeded both the SA4 region (3.1%) and the SA3 area, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this growth.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, to anticipate future population dynamics. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Kanwal is expected to increase its population by 444 persons to reach around 5,078 people by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 1.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kanwal, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Kanwal recorded approximately 16 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 80 homes were approved, with an additional two approved so far in FY-26. Despite a population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost of new homes was $205,000, below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $414,000, reflecting the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Kanwal recorded 13.0% less building activity per person than Greater Sydney and ranked among the 53rd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity comprised 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density housing options to cater to various price brackets.

This shift marks a departure from existing housing patterns, which are currently 86.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location had approximately 303 people per dwelling approval, indicating potential for growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kanwal is forecasted to gain 58 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kanwal has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely influencing the area. Notable projects are The Sanctuary Estate at Hamlyn Terrace, Cedarwood Estate, Yeramba Estates Central Coast Development, and Hamlyn View Estate. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kanwal has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kanwal has a balanced workforce with representation from white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.4% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of this date, 2,028 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 0.2% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Kanwal was significantly lower at 47.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, health care & social assistance had an employment share that was 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employed only 3.7% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.2%, and labour force grew by 3.0%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 provided further insight into potential future demand within Kanwal. These projections estimated national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with significant variations between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kanwal's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, although this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not consider localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kanwal had a median taxpayer income of $49,480 and an average income of $59,403. Nationally, the averages were $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $55,719 and average income around $66,894. According to the 2021 Census, Kanwal's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 19th and 23rd percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 30.3% of Kanwal's population (1,404 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 20th percentile.

Kanwal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Kanwal, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.6% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership level in Kanwal was 34.3%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (37.7%) or rented (28.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kanwal was $1,733, below the Sydney metro average of $1,900. Weekly rent median in Kanwal was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Kanwal's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Kanwal has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 69.4% of all households, including 26.9% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.6%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Kanwal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 34.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary, 10.2% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education. Kanwal Public School serves the local educational needs within Kanwal, enrolling 510 students as of a certain date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. The area's ICSEA score is 945.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Kanwal shows 40 operational transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are covered by 50 distinct routes, offering a total of 854 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 145 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 122 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kanwal is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kanwal faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

Approximately half of Kanwal's total population (~2,338 people) has private health cover. The most prevalent medical issues are mental health problems (10.9% of residents) and arthritis (10.8%). 58.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.5%. Kanwal has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.3% (1,311 people), versus Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's health profile.

Kanwal ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kanwal's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.3% of its population being citizens, 84.8% born in Australia, and 92.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Kanwal, comprising 56.0% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Kanwal are Australian (32.8%), English (29.2%), and Irish (7.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 4.5%. Maltese representation is also slightly lower at 0.9%, while Samoan representation is notably higher at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

Kanwal hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Kanwal is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kanwal has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84, at 10.2%, but fewer residents aged 25-34, at 11.6%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 9.4% to 10.2% of Kanwal's population. Conversely, the 0 to 4 age group decreased from 5.0% to 4.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Kanwal's age structure. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 47%, reaching 444 people from 301. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 89% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 age groups are projected to decrease in number.