Warnervale

Warnervale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Warnervale statistical area (Lv2) is around 1,516. This reflects a significant increase from the 701 people reported in the 2021 Census, marking an 815 person rise (116.3%). The latest estimate of 1,505 residents by AreaSearch, based on examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of additional 290 new addresses since the Census date, indicates substantial growth. This population density equates to approximately 119 persons per square kilometer, suggesting ample space for further development. The Warnervale (SA2) has shown remarkable growth since the 2021 Census, outperforming its SA4 region (3.7%) and SA3 area. Interstate migration was the primary driver of this growth, contributing about 72.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Warnervale are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, using a 2021 base year. Considering these projections, exceptional growth is predicted for the Warnervale (SA2) over the period from 2025 to 2041, with an expected increase of 585 persons, reflecting a decline of 9.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warnervale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Warnervale has seen approximately 79 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 397 homes. As of FY26, 32 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 0.3 new residents per year have arrived for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these properties is $380,000.

In FY26, $102.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting significant local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warnervale has 2541% more construction activity per person, which should provide ample buyer choice, although building activity has slowed in recent years. This is notably higher than the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 83% detached houses and 17% medium to high-density housing, preserving the area's low-density nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 12 people per approval, Warnervale reflects a developing area with an expected stable or declining population, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Warnervale should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Warnervale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Warnervale Town Centre, Hamlyn View Estate, Warnervale Town Centre - Woolworths Shopping Centre, and Central Coast Airport Precinct Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Warnervale has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Warnervale's workforce spans white and blue collar jobs with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.2% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of September 2025408 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.0% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 63.5%, slightly above Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with a notable concentration in construction at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence, at 4.2% compared to the regional 11.5%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 3.4:1, indicating Warnervale functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, labour force grew by 4.6%, resulting in a 1.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, labour force grow by 2.4%, and unemployment increase by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warnervale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Warnervale is below the national average. The median income is $46,418 and the average income stands at $56,398. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $50,531 (median) and $61,395 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 61st percentile ($1,929 weekly), while personal income sits at the 37th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 30.1% of the population fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 17.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 59th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warnervale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warnervale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warnervale was at 31.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.5% and rented ones at 25.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Warnervale was $490, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Warnervale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warnervale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.3% of all households, including 39.9% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 18.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for 19.7%, with lone person households at 13.8% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Warnervale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 11.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 48.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (38.6%). Educational participation is high at 28.5%, with 9.5% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 9.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warnervale has 24 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 40 distinct routes, facilitating 1,293 weekly passenger trips in total. The accessibility of transport is deemed good, with residents on average situated 241 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 184 trips per day, translating to roughly 53 weekly trips per individual stop.

Warnervale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Warnervale shows a relatively positive health profile among its residents. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population, but higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 49% (~747 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.8 and 9.0% of residents respectively. A total of 68.4% of residents reported being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 12.7% (192 people), compared to the 22.3% in Greater Sydney.

Warnervale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warnervale was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 86.9% of its population born in Australia. The citizenship rate is high at 91.6%, and the majority speak English only at home, at 93.5%. Christianity is the dominant religion in Warnervale, with 53.1% of people adhering to it.

However, there's a notable overrepresentation in the 'Other' religious category, which comprises 2.1% of the population compared to just 0.5% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian at 35.5%, English at 28.6%, and Irish at 6.8%. There are also significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Maltese is overrepresented at 2.2% compared to 1.0% regionally, Maori at 1.7% versus 0.6%, and Lebanese at 0.6% compared to 0.2%.

Warnervale hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Warnervale's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warnervale has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (18.3%), but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.2%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 16.5% to 18.3%, while the proportion of those aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 13.3% to 12.2%. By 2041, Warnervale's population is projected to undergo substantial demographic changes. The number of residents aged 85 and above is expected to grow by 62%, adding 10 residents to reach a total of 27. Residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, highlighting the trend towards an aging population. Conversely, populations in the age groups 45-54 and 55-64 are projected to decline.