Warnervale

Warnervale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Warnervale is around 1,572. This reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 701 people, representing an 871 person rise (124.3%). The latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with AreaSearch's validation of new addresses since the Census date, indicates a resident population estimate of 1,537 for Warnervale. This results in a density ratio of 123 persons per square kilometer, suggesting ample space per person and potential room for further development. Warnervale's population growth since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA4 region (3.1%) and SA3 area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration was the primary driver of this growth, contributing approximately 72.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, to forecast future population trends. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Based on these aggregated projections, Warnervale is expected to experience exceptional growth over the period from 2024 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 610 persons, reflecting a decline of 10.9% in total population over the 17-year span.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Warnervale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Warnervale has seen approximately 83 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 417 homes. So far in the financial year 2026 (FY-26), 25 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.3 new residents per year have arrived for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of these properties is $380,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing choices.

This financial year has seen $52.0 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warnervale has 2663.0% more development activity per person, providing buyers with greater choice and indicating strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 9 people per approval, Warnervale reflects a developing area. Given that population is expected to remain stable or decline, there should be reduced pressure on housing in Warnervale, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

With population expected to remain stable or decline, Warnervale should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Warnervale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of fifteen projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Warnervale Town Centre, Hamlyn View Estate, Warnervale Town Centre - Woolworths Shopping Centre, and Central Coast Airport Precinct Development. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Warnervale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Warnervale has a balanced workforce with equal representation of white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area.

The unemployment rate was 6.4% as of June 2025. There was an estimated employment growth of 1.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025399 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.2% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Warnervale is fairly standard at 63.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence in Warnervale, with only 4.2% of employment compared to the regional average of 11.5%. There are 3.4 workers for every resident in the area, indicating that it functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.5% while the labour force grew by 3.4%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, the labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by only 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for September 2022 project a national employment expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warnervale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Warnervale is below the national average. The median income is $46,418 and the average income stands at $56,398. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $52,271 (median) and $63,510 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 61st percentile ($1,929 weekly), while personal income sits at the 37th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 30.1% of the population (473 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, which aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 17.6% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 59th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warnervale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Warnervale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.9% houses and 4.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differs from Sydney metro's structure which was 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warnervale stood at 31.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.5% and rented ones at 25.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Weekly rent median was recorded at $490, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Warnervale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warnervale features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 80.3% of all households, including 39.9% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 18.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 19.7%, with lone person households at 13.8% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Warnervale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 11.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.0%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 48.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 38.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.5% in primary, 9.5% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education. The area has two schools serving 1,089 students: Porters Creek Public School and Lakes Grammar - An Anglican School. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1028) with balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 69.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.6, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis found 17 active transport stops in Warnervale, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 39 individual routes, collectively providing 1,106 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 289 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 158 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 65 weekly trips per stop.

Warnervale's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows Warnervale residents have relatively positive health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population. However, prevalence is higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 49% (~774 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.8 and 9.0% of residents respectively. 68.4% of residents declare no medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 61.5%. The area has 12.4% (194 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Sydney's 22.3%.

Warnervale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warnervale was found to have low cultural diversity, with 86.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 53.1% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' category comprises 2.1%, compared to 0.5% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (35.5%), English (28.6%), and Irish (6.8%) are the most represented groups. Some ethnicities show significant differences: Maltese at 2.2% (regional average is 1.0%), Maori at 1.7% (vs 0.6%), and Lebanese at 0.6% (vs 0.2%).

Warnervale hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Warnervale's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warnervale has a higher percentage of residents aged 15-24 (18.2%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (10.1%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the percentage of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 16.5% to 18.2%, while the percentage of residents aged 5 to 14 has decreased from 13.3% to 12.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Warnervale, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 62%, adding 10 residents to reach a total of 28. Residents aged 65 and above will drive all population growth, highlighting trends towards an aging population. Conversely, population declines are projected for the age groups 45-54 and 55-64.