Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's population is around 23,097 as of Aug-2025. This reflects an increase of 735 people (3.3%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 22,362 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,749 from the ABS as of Jun-2024 and an additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,053 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's growth of 3.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 3.1%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 1,822 persons to 2041 with an increase of 6.3% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has recorded approximately 61 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 308 homes. As of FY26, 6 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $205,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options. This financial year, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven records about 63% of building activity per person and places among the 33rd percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a growing mix of housing types to provide options across different price points. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses. The area has approximately 521 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established location.

Population forecasts suggest Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven will gain 1,465 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), The Sanctuary Estate Hamlyn Terrace, and Cedarwood Estate. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 6.1% and it had an estimated employment growth of 1.6% in the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 9,985 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 49.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.5% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, labour force by 2.7%, resulting in unemployment rising by 1 percentage point. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand trends for Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, with local growth estimated at approximately 6.5%. Over ten years, national employment is projected to grow by 13.7%, and locally by around 13.6%. These projections are simple weighted extrapolations based on current industry-specific mixes and do not account for localized population changes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven had a median income among taxpayers of $47,431 and an average level of $56,944. This is below the national average, which was $56,994 in Greater Sydney during that year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $53,412 (median) and $64,125 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven fall between the 15th and 16th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 29.5% of the population (6,813 individuals) have incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metropolitan area's dwelling structure of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven was slightly lower than that of Sydney metro, at 33.4%. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (32.8%) or rented (33.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, below the Sydney metropolitan average of $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure recorded was $360, compared to Sydney metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.3% of all households, including 23.0% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 30.1% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.5%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (34.6%).

Educational participation is high at 28.1%, including 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,298 students as of the latest data. The area has varied educational conditions across Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, with balanced education provision including 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents are at 9.9, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has 187 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along 96 routes. Weekly, these routes provide 3,834 passenger trips.

Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 156 meters. Daily service frequency averages 547 trips across all routes, equating to about 20 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent across Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older residents significantly.

Private health cover is low at approximately 48%, covering around 11,155 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.2% and 11.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 57.7% report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 61.5%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.4%, or around 5,404 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's health profile, presenting similar challenges.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven had a cultural diversity index below average, with 88.9% of its population being Australian citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.3% of the population, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.2%), English (31.1%), and Irish (7.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.3%, compared to 4.5% regionally, while Maltese stood at 0.8% (vs 1.0%) and Maori at 0.7% (vs 0.6%).

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 11.8% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group grew from 7.8% to 8.4%, and the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 12.8% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 38% (733 people), reaching 2,678 from 1,944. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 71% of total population growth. In contrast, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.