Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's population is approximately 23,097 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 735 people (3.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,362. The increase was inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,747 in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,053 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth of 3.3% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.1%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 1,822 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 6.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven recorded approximately 61 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 308 homes. By June 2026, 16 approvals had been granted. The population has declined in recent years, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good options for buyers. The average expected construction cost of new homes is $201,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing choices.

This financial year saw $10.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate commercial development levels. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven records about 63% of building activity per person and ranks among the 32nd percentile nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is reflective of the area's maturity and potential planning constraints. New building activity comprises 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a shift from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses. This change likely results from reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands.

The location has approximately 521 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts suggest Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven will gain 1,465 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), The Sanctuary Estate Hamlyn Terrace, and Cedarwood Estate. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate in the area is 6.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3% over the past year.

As of September 2025, there are 10,099 residents employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Sydney's at 6.2%. Workforce participation in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven is lower, at 49.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.5% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, labour force increased by 3.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. By November 25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $47,431 and an average income of $56,944. This is below the national averages of $56,994 and $80,856 for Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $53,412 and $64,125 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven fall between the 14th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.5% of the population (6,813 individuals) earn within the $1,500-$2,999 range, similar to regional levels at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven was at 33.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (32.8%) or rented (33.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, below Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent figure was $360, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.3% of all households, including 23.0% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 30.1% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 11.5%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 8.2% of residents holding such qualifications. Postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas follow, at 2.0% and 1.3% respectively. Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 43.7% holding these skills, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (34.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's public transport analysis shows 187 active stops operating, all bus services. These are covered by 96 routes offering 3,834 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent accessibility, with an average distance of 156 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service averages 547 trips across all routes, translating to about 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~11,155 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 11.2% and 11.1% of residents respectively. However, 57.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 61.5%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 23.4% (5,404 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven had cultural diversity scores below average, with 88.9% of residents being Australian citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.0% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, at 54.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. Top ancestry groups were Australian (31.2%), English (31.1%), and Irish (7.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher than regional averages, at 5.3% versus 4.5%. Maltese and Maori populations also differed slightly from regional averages, at 0.8% versus 1.0% and 0.7% versus 0.6%, respectively.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 11.8% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.8% to 8.4%, and the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 12.8% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 38% (733 people), reaching 2,678 from 1,944. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 71% of total population growth. In contrast, the 5-14 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.