Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's population is 23,097 as of Aug 2025. This is an increase of 735 people from the 2021 Census figure of 22,362. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 22,749 in June 2024 and 95 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,053 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 3.3% since the 2021 Census exceeds the SA4 region's average of 3.1%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 1,822 persons to 2041, with a total increase of 6.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has recorded approximately 57 residential property approvals per year. The ABS produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 287 approvals from FY-20 to FY-25 and 1 so far in FY-26. Population decline in recent years suggests new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good buyer choice. Average construction cost of new homes is $205,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven records around 61% of building activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, indicating relatively constrained buyer choice and interest in existing dwellings. This reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a shift from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses. The location has approximately 521 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area.

Population forecasts project Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven to gain 1,465 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Wyong Hospital Redevelopment, Madison Rise Estate Woongarrah, Yeramba Estates Central Coast Development, and Thomas Paul Constructions Cedarwood Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 6.1% as of June 2025, and estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. The area had 9,985 residents employed in June 2025, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was at 49.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with healthcare showing particularly high concentration at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 3.5% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population data.

From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, labour force grew by 2.7%, and unemployment rose by 1 percentage point. In comparison, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, and an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment was at 4.5%, with national employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly by industry sector. Applying these projections to Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven had a median income among taxpayers of $47,431 and an average level of $56,944. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $56,994 and $80,856 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates as of March 2025 would be approximately $52,459 (median) and $62,980 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven all fall between the 15th and 16th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 29.5% of the population (6,813 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven stood at 33.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.8%) or rented (33.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, lower than Sydney metro's average of $1,900 and national figure of $1,863. Median weekly rent in the area was recorded at $360, compared to Sydney metro's $385 and national average of $375.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.3% of all households, including 23.0% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 30.1% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than Greater Sydney's average of 2.5.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.5%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (34.6%). Current educational participation is high at 28.1%, comprising primary education (9.7%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (3.4%).

The four schools in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven have a combined enrollment of 2,298 students. School places per 100 residents are lower than the regional average at 9.9, with some students possibly attending nearby schools.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven area has 187 active public transport stops. These stops offer a variety of bus services. There are 96 individual routes operating in total, facilitating 3,834 weekly passenger trips combined.

The accessibility to these services is rated excellent, with residents on average situated just 156 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 547 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent across Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven. Key conditions affect both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 48%, covering around 11,155 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 11.2% and 11.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 57.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.4%, or around 5,404 people, than the 22.3% recorded in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes generally align with the broader population's health profile.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven had a cultural diversity score below average, with 88.9% of its population being Australian citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, accounting for 54.3% of the population, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (31.2%), English (31.1%), and Irish (7.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.3%, compared to 4.5% regionally; Maltese was 0.8%, versus 1.0%; Maori was 0.7%, compared to 0.6%.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The percentage of the population aged 65-74 stands at 11.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure. Conversely, the 35-44 age group comprises 11.2% of the population, which is less than Greater Sydney's percentage. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.8% to 8.4%. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 12.8% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,678 people from 1,944. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 71% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.