Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Aug '25, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's population is approximately 23,097. This figure represents a growth of 735 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,362. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates of 22,749 in Jun '24 and validated new addresses post-Census. The population density stands at 2,053 persons per sq km, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Growth since the Census (3.3%) outpaced the SA4 region's growth (3%). Overseas migration primarily drove this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022, using 2021 as the base year, are applied. Growth rates by age group are projected until 2041. By 2041, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven is expected to increase by 1,822 persons, marking a total growth of 6.3%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has recorded approximately 61 residential property approvals per year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 308 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25 and 1 so far in FY-26. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with demand, offering good choices for buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $205,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options.

This financial year, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven records about 63% of building activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points. This reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, showing a considerable change from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses.

The location has approximately 521 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven will gain 1,465 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Wyong Hospital Redevelopment, Madison Rise Estate Woongarrah, Yeramba Estates Central Coast Development, and Thomas Paul Constructions Cedarwood Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 6.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year.

There are 9,985 residents in work, but the unemployment rate is 1.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 49.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 3.5%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6% while labour force increased by 2.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% during the same period. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven had a median income among taxpayers of $47,431 with an average level of $56,944. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $56,994 and $80,856 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $52,459 (median) and $62,980 (average) as of March 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven all fall between the 15th and 16th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows 29.5% of the population (6,813 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is similar to Sydney's metropolitan area which had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven stood at 33.4%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 32.8% and rented ones making up 33.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,700, lower than Sydney's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent was $360, compared to Sydney's $385. Nationally, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.3% of all households, including 23.0% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 30.1% and group households comprising 3.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 11.5%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (34.6%).

Educational participation is high at 28.1%, including primary education (9.7%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (3.4%). The area's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,298 students. School places per 100 residents (9.9) are below the regional average (13.6), indicating some students may attend schools in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven transport analysis shows 187 active stops operating. These are mixed bus stops serviced by 96 routes. They provide 3,834 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is excellent with residents typically 156 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 547 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven, where a range of health conditions significantly impact both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~11,155 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues are the most common medical condition in the area, impacting 11.2% of residents, closely followed by arthritis at 11.1%. Conversely, 57.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.4%, with approximately 5,404 people falling into this age category, compared to the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven, accounting for 54.3%, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.2%), English (31.1%), and Irish (7.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 5.3% in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven compared to the regional average of 4.5%, while Maltese and Maori populations stand at 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, slightly lower than the regional averages of 1.0% and 0.6%.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 65-74 years has a strong representation at 11.8%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 age group is less prevalent at 11.2%. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.8% to 8.4% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 12.8% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,678 people from 1,944. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 71% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.