Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 23,097. This figure represents a growth of 735 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,362. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates: 22,747 in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 2,053 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Growth since the Census (3.3%) exceeded the SA4 region's average (3.1%). Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on current demographic trends, the area is expected to grow by approximately 6.3% by 2041, adding around 1,822 persons to its population.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven recorded approximately 61 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 308 homes. As of FY26, 11 approvals have been granted. The population has declined in recent years, suggesting new supply has kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while providing more affordable housing options with an average construction cost value of $201,000, below the regional average. This financial year, $10.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven records about 63% of building activity per person and ranks among the 33rd percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 63.0% standalone homes and 37.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a shift from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 521 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area with population forecasts expecting Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven to gain 1,465 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Population forecasts indicate Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven will gain 1,465 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 20 projects expected to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), The Sanctuary Estate Hamlyn Terrace, and Cedarwood Estate. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

As of June 2025, 9,985 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.1%. This is 1.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in the area is 49.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Health care & social assistance employment is at 1.4 times the regional average, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 3.5% versus the regional average of 11.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, with a difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.6%, labour force by 2.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1 percentage point. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven had a median taxpayer income of $47,431 and an average income of $56,944. This is below the national average of $56,994 and Greater Sydney's average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025 (12.61%), estimated median income for Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is approximately $53,412 and the average is $64,125. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven fall between the 15th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.5% of individuals (6,813) earn within $1,500-$2,999 range, similar to regional levels at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 79.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven stood at 33.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.8% and rented ones at 33.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, lower than Sydney metro's $1,900. Weekly rent in the area averaged $360, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.3% of all households, consisting of 23.0% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 30.1% and group households comprising 3.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.5%, significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 34.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,298 students as of the latest data. The area shows varied educational conditions across Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven. Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents stand at 9.9, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven has 187 active public transport stops. These are served by buses on 96 different routes, offering a total of 3,834 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 156 meters.

On average, there are 547 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~11,155 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (11.2%) and arthritis (11.1%), while 57.7% of residents reported no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 61.5%. As of 2021, 23.4% of the population is aged 65 and over (5,404 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven had a cultural diversity below average, with 88.9% citizens, 86.7% born in Australia, and 94.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 54.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.2%), English (31.1%), and Irish (7.8%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 5.3% (vs regional 4.5%), Maltese at 0.8% (vs 1.0%), and Maori at 0.7% (vs 0.6%).

Gorokan - Kanwal - Charmhaven hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 11.8% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 age group makes up 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.8% to 8.4% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has declined from 12.8% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Gorokan-Kanwal-Charmhaven. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 38%, reaching 2,678 people from 1,944. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 71% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.