Buff Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Buff Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area around Buff Point, the suburb's population is estimated at approximately 3,699 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 140 people, representing a growth rate of 3.9%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,559 people in Buff Point. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,661 following examination of the latest Estimated Residential Population (ERP) data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,769 persons per square kilometer for Buff Point, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 3.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.1%, indicating that Buff Point was a growth leader in the region during this period. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, for areas covered by this data. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Buff Point is expected to grow by approximately 440 persons by the year 2041, reflecting a total gain of 10.2% over the 17-year period. This projected growth places the suburb just below the median of Australian statistical areas in terms of demographic trends.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Buff Point according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Buff Point has averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 59 homes. From July 2026 to date, 3 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 people move to the area per dwelling built annually between FY-21 and FY-25. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $284,000.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $493,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Buff Point has around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 37th percentile nationally for construction activity. New construction consists solely of detached dwellings, maintaining Buff Point's suburban character. As of Q2 FY-26, Buff Point has an estimated population of 453 people per dwelling approval.

By 2041, AreaSearch projects a growth of 378 residents. Development pace is keeping up with projected growth, but increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Buff Point has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No factors influence an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact this area. Notable projects include Lake Munmorah Shopping Centre Expansion, Waratah Super Battery, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), and Charmhaven Master-Planned Housing Community. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Buff Point has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Buff Point has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1% in the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of June 2025, 1,623 residents are employed, matching Greater Sydney's 4.2% unemployment rate but with lower workforce participation at 53.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with notable concentration in construction (1.9 times the regional average). However, professional & technical roles are under-represented at 4.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census data.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.1% while labour force grew by 3.0%, raising unemployment by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 national employment forecasts project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Buff Point's employment mix suggests local growth of 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Buff Point's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $46,258. The average income stood at $52,949 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median and average incomes were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Buff Point's median income are approximately $52,091 as of September 2025, with average income estimated at $59,626 during the same period. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Buff Point fall between the 20th and 21st percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In Buff Point, 30.6% of the population (1,131 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Buff Point, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Buff Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Buff Point's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Buff Point was 40.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.1%) or rented (22.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent was $380, slightly higher than Sydney metro's figure of $385. Nationally, Buff Point's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Buff Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 26.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.7% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Buff Point exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (35.3%). Educational participation is high at 27.2%, with 10.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Schools may be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access them in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Buff Point indicates that there are currently 36 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 21 individual routes providing service to the community. Together, these routes facilitate 479 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 148 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 68 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Buff Point is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Buff Point faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48%, covering around 1,772 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis, impacting 11.6% of residents, and mental health issues, affecting 10.0%. Conversely, 58.2% reported being free from medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. In Buff Point, 24.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (906 people), higher than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges similar to those faced by the general population.

Buff Point is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Buff Point's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.1% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Buff Point, comprising 58.1% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.9%), Australian (30.8%), and Irish (7.9%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 1.2%, Australian Aboriginal at 5.3%, and Dutch at 1.4%, compared to regional averages of 1.0%, 4.5%, and 1.0% respectively.

Buff Point hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Buff Point's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeding the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 12.5% of Buff Point's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.2%. Post the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has risen from 8.3% to 9.1%, and the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.7% to 13.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Buff Point's age profile. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 55%, reaching 521 people from the current 336. Those aged 65 and above are projected to account for 77% of population growth. Conversely, the 35-44 and 0-4 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.