Buff Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Buff Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Buff Point is around 3,752 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 193 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,559 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,662 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,795 persons per square kilometer. Buff Point's growth rate of 5.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.7%) and the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Buff Point is expected to grow by 444 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 9.4% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Buff Point according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Buff Point has averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 59 homes. In FY26 so far, 9 approvals have been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 1.5 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $284,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In FY26, $270,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Relative to Greater Sydney and nationally, Buff Point shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person, placing it among the 41st percentile of areas assessed. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings due to market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 402 people per dwelling approval, Buff Point shows a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Buff Point is expected to grow by 354 residents through to 2041. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Buff Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly affect an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Lake Munmorah Shopping Centre Expansion, Waratah Super Battery, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), and Charmhaven Master-Planned Housing Community, with the following list detailing those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Buff Point demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Buff Point has a balanced workforce encompassing white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 4.3%.

As of December 2025, 1,663 residents are employed, with a participation rate of 57.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Around 22.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 4.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the working population count versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, while labour force grew by 4.2%, maintaining a stable unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Buff Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Buff Point's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $46,258. The average income stood at $52,949 during the same period. These figures are lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimates suggest Buff Point's median income will be approximately $50,356 and average income around $57,640, based on an 8.86% increase from financial year 2023. According to the Census conducted in 2021, incomes in Buff Point fall between the 20th and 21st percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In Buff Point, 30.6% of the population earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Buff Point, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Buff Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Buff Point's residential structure, as per the latest Census, was 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Buff Point stood at 40.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.1% and rented ones at 22.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Buff Point was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Buff Point's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Buff Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 26.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.7% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Buff Point exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 35.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Buff Point has 36 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 21 different routes, offering a total of 512 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 148 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Buff Point's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 94%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.4, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 73 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Buff Point is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Buff Point faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 1,798 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.6% and 10.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 58.2% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, which is lower than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age individuals in the area face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Buff Point has a higher proportion of seniors (25.3%, or 949 people) compared to Greater Sydney (15.4%). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Buff Point is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Buff Point's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.1% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Buff Point, comprising 58.1% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.9%), Australian (30.8%), and Irish (7.9%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.2%, Australian Aboriginal at 5.3%, and Dutch at 1.4%.

Buff Point hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Buff Point has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 12.8% of Buff Point's population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.1%. Post-2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 8.3% to 9.6%, and the 55 to 64 cohort decreased from 14.7% to 13.2%. By 2041, Buff Point's age profile is projected to change notably. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 46% (164 people), reaching 525 from 360. Those aged 65 and above are set to comprise 77% of the population growth. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 35 to 44 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.