Buff Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Buff Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Buff Point statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,752 people. This figure reflects an increase of 193 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,559 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,662 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,795 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Buff Point (SA2) has experienced a growth rate of 5.4% since the 2021 census, exceeding both the SA4 region at 3.7% and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 51.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, for areas covered by this data. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Buff Point (SA2) is expected to grow by 434 persons to reach a total population of around 4,186 people by the year 2041, reflecting an overall gain of approximately 8.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Buff Point according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Buff Point averaged approximately 11 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 59 homes from FY-20 to FY-24. As of FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.5 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting balanced supply and demand dynamics. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings was $284,000, lower than regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $270,000, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Buff Point shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 41st percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. Recent construction comprised 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 403 people per dwelling approval, Buff Point shows a developed market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Buff Point is expected to grow by 319 residents through to 2041, suggesting current development appears well-matched to future needs and supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Buff Point has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than local infrastructure changes. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to affect this region. Notable projects include Lake Munmorah Shopping Centre Expansion, Waratah Super Battery, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), and Charmhaven Master-Planned Housing Community. The following details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Buff Point remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Buff Point has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, and there was an estimated employment growth of 2.6% in the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 1,628 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate matching Greater Sydney's at 4.2%. However, workforce participation is lower at 53.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 4.2% of Buff Point's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.6%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% and a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, favourable to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Buff Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Buff Point's median income among taxpayers was $46,258 in financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stood at $52,949 during the same period. In comparison, Greater Sydney had median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively in 2023. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes for Buff Point were approximately $50,356 and $57,640 based on an 8.86% increase from the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Buff Point all fell between the 20th and 21st percentiles nationally. In Buff Point, 30.6% of individuals (1,148 people) earned within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% were in this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally.

Buff Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Buff Point's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.1% houses and 3.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Buff Point stood at 40.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.1% and rented ones at 22.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent in Buff Point was $380, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Buff Point's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Buff Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 26.0% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.7% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Buff Point exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 11.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (35.3%). Educational participation is high at 27.2%, including primary education (10.9%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (2.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 36 active public transport stops in Buff Point, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 21 different routes, offering a total of 512 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 148 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 73 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Buff Point is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Buff Point faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover in Buff Point is approximately 48%, covering around 1,798 people, which is lower than Greater Sydney's 50.4% and the national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common conditions, affecting 11.6% and 10.0% of residents respectively.

However, 58.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.5%. Buff Point has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.5%, with around 919 people, than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. The health outcomes among seniors in Buff Point are generally aligned with the overall population's health profile.

Buff Point is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Buff Point's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 89.6% born in Australia, 92.1% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 58.1%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 56.2%. The top three ancestral groups were English (32.9%), Australian (30.8%), and Irish (7.9%).

Notably, Maltese (1.2%) and Dutch (1.4%) populations were higher than regional averages of 1.0% each.

Buff Point hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Buff Point's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeding the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 12.5% of Buff Point's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 8.3% to 9.1%, and the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 14.7% to 13.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Buff Point's age profile. The 75-84 group is expected to grow by 52%, reaching 520 people from the current 341. Those aged 65 and above are projected to account for 80% of population growth. Conversely, the 35-44 and 0-4 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.