Warnervale - Wadalba

Warnervale - Wadalba lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Warnervale-Wadalba's population was around 22,872 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 2,821 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,051. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 22,353 in June 2024 and an additional 768 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 533 persons per square kilometer. Warnervale-Wadalba's growth rate of 14.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA4 region (3.1%) and SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 72.0% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth placing it in the top 10 percent of statistical areas nationally, with an expected expansion of 15,971 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 67.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Warnervale - Wadalba was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warnervale-Wadalba averaged approximately 234 new dwelling approvals annually between FY-21 and FY-25. A total of 1,173 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 97 approved in FY-26. On average, about 3.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years.

This high demand has outpaced supply, potentially exerting upward pressure on prices and intensifying competition among buyers. The average construction cost of new homes was $251,000, which is relatively affordable compared to regional levels. In FY-26 alone, $160.2 million in commercial development approvals were recorded, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warnervale-Wadalba has shown 173.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction trends comprise 81.0% detached houses and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

The location has approximately 87 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warnervale-Wadalba is projected to grow by 15,452 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Warnervale - Wadalba has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 37 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Hamlyn View Estate, Cedarwood Estate, Yeramba Estates Central Coast Development, and The Sanctuary Estate Hamlyn Terrace. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Warnervale - Wadalba shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Warnervale-Wadalba has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate was 3.0% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2%.

As of September 2025, there are 11,655 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 63.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Professional & technical services employ only 4.4% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, while labour force increased by 3.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1% over the same period. As of 25-November-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warnervale-Wadalba's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Warnervale - Wadalba SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,288 and an average income of $59,885 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Sydney's median income being $56,994 and average income $80,856. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $55,503 (median) and $67,436 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. In the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 66th percentile ($2,022 weekly), while personal income was at the 47th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominated with 38.0% of residents (8,691 people), similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupied this bracket. High housing costs consumed 18.4% of income, yet strong earnings placed disposable income at the 63rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warnervale - Wadalba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warnervale - Wadalba, as per the latest Census, 94.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warnervale - Wadalba stood at 25.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.6% and rented ones at 32.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Sydney's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent in Warnervale - Wadalba was $495, compared to Sydney's $385. Nationally, mortgage repayments averaged $1,863 and rents were $375 per week.

Warnervale - Wadalba features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.5% of all households, including 42.2% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for 17.5%, with lone person households at 15.2% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Warnervale - Wadalba aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Among residents with higher education qualifications, bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.8% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 30.8%. Educational participation is high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 12.6% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warnervale - Wadalba has 161 operational public transport stops, offering a combination of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 97 distinct routes, facilitating 2,761 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents on average situated 196 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency stands at 394 trips per day, translating to roughly 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warnervale - Wadalba is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Warnervale-Wadalba faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Approximately half of its total population (~11,321 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (10.0% of residents) and asthma (8.6%). Sixty-six point three percent of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 61.5%. Fourteen point one percent of residents are aged 65 and over (3,227 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to the specific challenges they face.

Warnervale - Wadalba ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warnervale-Wadalba had low cultural diversity, with 82.3% of residents born in Australia, 89.8% being citizens, and 89.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 57.6%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 56.2%. Ancestry wise, Australian (29.6%), English (28.9%) and Irish (6.6%) were top groups.

Notably, Maltese (1.2% vs regional 1.0%), Australian Aboriginal (4.6% vs 4.5%) and Maori (0.7% vs 0.6%) had higher representations than the Greater Sydney region.

Warnervale - Wadalba's population is younger than the national pattern

Warnervale-Wadalba's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group comprises 15.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. The 25-34 cohort, however, makes up 12.1% of the population, lower compared to Greater Sydney. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.6% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 16.4% to 15.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Warnervale-Wadalba, with the 45-54 age group projected to rise substantially by 86%, from 3,025 to 5,623 people.