Warnervale - Wadalba
Statistical Area - sa2

Warnervale - Wadalba lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Warnervale - Wadalba's population was around 22,869 as of Aug 2025. This figure represents a growth of 2,818 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,051. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses between June 2024 (population of 22,353) and the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 533 persons per square kilometer. Warnervale - Wadalba's growth rate of 14.1% since the 2021 census exceeded regional averages. Interstate migration contributed approximately 72.0% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Future projections indicate exceptional growth for the area, placing it in the top 10 percent nationally. By 2041, the population is expected to reach 38,830, reflecting an increase of 67.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Warnervale - Wadalba was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Warnervale - Wadalba averaged approximately 228 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, showing 1,141 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25, with an additional 31 approved in FY-26. On average, around 3.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built each year between FY-20 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $380,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing choices for buyers.

This financial year has seen $160.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Warnervale - Wadalba records 218.0% more development activity per person, providing buyers with greater choice and demonstrating strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 81.0% detached houses and 19.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 87 people moving to the area per dwelling approval, Warnervale - Wadalba exhibits growth area characteristics. Future projections estimate a population increase of 15,455 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Warnervale - Wadalba has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Yeramba Estates Central Coast Development, Central Coast Link Road M1 Improvements, Madison Rise Estate Woongarrah, and Warnervale Town Centre - Woolworths Shopping Centre. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The employment environment in Warnervale - Wadalba shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Warnervale-Wadalba has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9%.

As of June 2025, there are 11,188 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, while workforce participation stands at 63.1%. The primary employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, health care & social assistance has a higher share of employment compared to the regional level, with an employment share of 1.4 times the average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.4% versus the regional average of 11.5%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares to the national unemployment rate of 4.5% and national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warnervale-Wadalba's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Warnervale-Wadalba had a median taxpayer income of $49,288 and an average income of $59,885 in the 2022 financial year, according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data. This was lower than the national average, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,513 (median) and $66,233 (average), based on a 10.6% growth in wages since the 2022 financial year. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 67th percentile ($2,022 weekly), while personal income was at the 47th percentile. The largest income segment comprised 38.0% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (8,690 residents). High housing costs consumed 18.4% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 63rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Warnervale - Wadalba is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warnervale - Wadalba's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation showed 94.4% houses and 5.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warnervale - Wadalba stood at 25.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.6% and rented ones at 32.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $1,900, while the median weekly rent figure was $495 compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Warnervale - Wadalba's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warnervale - Wadalba features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 82.5% of all households, including 42.2% couples with children, 23.7% couples without children, and 15.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 17.5%, with lone person households at 15.2% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Warnervale - Wadalba aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 16.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.0%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high at 34.1%, comprising primary (12.6%), secondary (10.2%), and tertiary education (3.7%).

Six schools operate in Warnervale - Wadalba, educating about 4,986 students, with balanced educational opportunities as indicated by its ICSEA score of 1002. The area has three primary and three K-12 schools, functioning as an education hub with 21.8 school places per 100 residents, higher than the regional average of 13.6.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warnervale - Wadalba has 161 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus services, operated by 97 routes providing 2,761 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 196 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 394 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 17 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warnervale - Wadalba is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Warnervale-Wadalba faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older cohorts.

Approximately half of the total population (~11,320 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues affect 10.0% of residents, while asthma impacts 8.6%. 66.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 14.1% of residents are aged 65 and over (3,226 people), lower than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warnervale - Wadalba records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warnervale-Wadalba had a cultural diversity profile roughly in line with the wider region's average. As of the 2016 Census, 82.3% of its population was born in Australia, 89.8% were citizens, and 89.2% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 57.6% adherents, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.6%), English (28.9%), and Irish (6.6%). Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 1.2%, Australian Aboriginal at 4.6%, and Maori at 0.7%.

Warnervale - Wadalba's population is younger than the national pattern

Warnervale-Wadalba's median age of 35 years is slightly younger than Greater Sydney's 37 and the national average of 38 years. The 5-14 age group comprises 15.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.1%. Between 2021 and present day, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 13.6% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has decreased from 16.4% to 15.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Warnervale-Wadalba, with the 45-54 age group projected to rise substantially by 86%, from 3,025 to 5,623 people.