Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is around 16,761. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 16,006 people. The growth of 755 people (4.7%) was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,359 in June 2024 and an additional 288 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 684 persons per square kilometer. The area's growth rate exceeded both its SA4 region (3.1%) and SA3 area, making it a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 699 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 1.7% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 73 new home approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 369 homes. As of FY26, 21 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were noted between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new homes was $287,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

This financial year has seen $6.8 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows comparable new home approvals per capita, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns. The area consists of 90% standalone homes and 10% attached dwellings, maintaining its traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

With approximately 228 people per approval, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to gain 292 residents by 2041, indicating that current construction levels should adequately meet demand and create favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth exceeding current forecasts.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Berkeley Vale Industrial Estate Expansion, Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, Lorraine Gardens Estate, and Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.7% as of September 2025. The area has seen employment growth of 2.8% over the past year.

There are 8,435 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized, employing 1.6 times the regional level compared to professional & technical services which employ just 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force increased by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points in the area. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1%, labour force expand by 2.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-November NSW-wide, employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi SA2 was $49,485, lower than the national average of $61,529. Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,725 (median) and $69,288 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census 2021 data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi between the 46th and 53rd percentiles. Income distribution shows 34.6% of residents (5,799 people) earn $1,500 to $2,999 annually, similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. Housing costs consume 16.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi was at 34.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (46.6%) or rented (18.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $425, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, including 34.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.9% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (9.9%), secondary education (7.5%), and tertiary education (3.4%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has 159 active public transport stops. These are served by 92 bus routes that collectively facilitate 1,196 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 178 meters.

There are approximately 170 daily trips across all routes, resulting in about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi faces significant health challenges, with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~8,481 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.6% and 9.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 64.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. The area has 20.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,469 people), which is lower than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 87.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in the area is Christianity, making up 56.6% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three represented ancestry groups are English (31.5%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Maltese representation is higher than average at 1.0%, Maori is slightly above regional levels at 0.7%, and Australian Aboriginal representation is lower than regional levels at 3.4%.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 10.5% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present day, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.4% to 7.4% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 388 people (31%), from 1,243 to 1,632. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.