Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is approximately 16,756 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 750 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 16,006. The growth was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,354 in June 2024 and the addition of 288 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density ratio of 683 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages found across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 Census outperforms both its SA4 region (3.1%) and SA3 area. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 55.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas. For uncovers areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a base year of 2021 are applied. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations will be used for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth nationally, with Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi expected to grow by 699 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, marking a total gain of 1.8% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 63 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 319 approvals from FY20 to FY25 and 11 so far in FY26. On average, 1.1 new residents arrive per new home each year over the past five financial years (FY20-FY25), indicating balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and an average dwelling construction cost of $541,000. This financial year has seen $6.8 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting a residential character for the area.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows comparable new home approvals per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. New developments consist of 90% standalone homes and 10% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space, with around 228 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate a gain of 297 residents by 2041.

With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth exceeding current forecasts.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the area. Notable projects include M1 Pacific Motorway Tuggerah to Doyalson Widening, Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Cynthia Street Subdivision.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with 2.7% unemployment as of June 2025. It had an employment growth of 2.1% in the past year.

There are 8,346 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment share is 1.6 times the regional level.

Professional & technical employs only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over June 2024 to June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, labour force by 2.7%, raising unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. Comparing with Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.6% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41%, unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment is 4.5%, with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that income in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is lower than average nationally. The median assessed income is $49,485 and the average income stands at $61,529. In comparison, Greater Sydney's figures show a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi would be approximately $54,730 (median) and $68,051 (average) as of March 2025. Census 2021 income data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi cluster around the 50th percentile nationally. Distribution data reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 34.6% of residents (5,797 people). This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi had 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings as of the latest Census, compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi was 34.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented ones at 18.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Sydney metro's $1,900 but in line with the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent was $425, significantly higher than Sydney metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.8% of all households, including 34.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.9% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate stands at 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (12.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 11.1% and certificates make up 32.2%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. As of the latest data (2016), Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's 5 schools had a combined enrollment of 2,268 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 980) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 2 secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has 159 active public transport stops. These stops are served by a mix of buses along 92 routes, offering 1,196 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 178 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

The service frequency averages 170 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi faces significant health challenges with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~8,478 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and mental health issues (9.1%). About 64.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. There are 20.7% (3,468 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi had 87.3% of its population born in Australia, with 92.6% being citizens and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 56.6% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Maltese, Maori, and Australian Aboriginal populations diverged from regional averages at 1.0%, 0.7%, and 3.4% respectively.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in the area at 10.5%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.4% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 388 people (31%), from 1,243 to 1,632. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.