Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is around 16,386 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 380 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,006 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,354 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 293 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 668 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's 2.4% growth since the census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 55.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 699 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 4.1% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has seen around 73 new homes approved each year, totalling 369 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 31 approvals have been recorded. Given an average of 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new homes are being built at an average value of $287,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $6.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows comparable new home approvals (per person), supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. New development consists of 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. At around 228 people per approval, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reflects a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi will gain 667 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Berkeley Vale Industrial Estate Expansion, the Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, Lorraine Gardens Estate, and the Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.5%, and 3.7% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,515 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (66.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 27.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while the labour force increased by 3.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. This compares to Greater Sydney, where employment grew by 2.2%, the labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi SA2 is slightly lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $52,954 while the average income stands at $65,626. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,646 (median) and $71,440 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, between the 46th and 53rd percentiles. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 34.6% of residents (5,669 people), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. High housing costs consume 16.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 53rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 34.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (46.6%) or rented (18.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,000, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $425, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 76.8% of all households, comprising 34.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.9% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.7 people matches the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (18.0%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 164 active transport stops operating within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 92 individual routes, collectively providing 1,369 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 179 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 27.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 195 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~8,504 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.6% and 9.1% of residents, respectively, while 64.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3,503 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is Christianity, which makes up 56.6% of the population. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi are English, comprising 31.5% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 31.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 8.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 1.0% of Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi (vs 1.0% regionally), Maori at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and Australian Aboriginal at 3.4% (vs 1.3%).

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is somewhat higher than the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (10.7% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (11.5%). In the period since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.4% to 7.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, increasing by 362 people (29%) from 1,269 to 1,632. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 78% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.