Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 16,756. This figure represents an increase of 750 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 16,006. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,354 in June 2024 and an additional 288 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 683 persons per square kilometer. The area's 4.7% growth rate exceeded both the SA4 region (3.1%) and the SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55.6% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on current demographic trends and population numbers, the area is expected to grow by approximately 699 persons by 2041, resulting in a total growth of about 1.8% over the next 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 73 new homes approved each year. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 369 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 11 recorded so far in FY-26. On average, around 1.1 new residents arrive per new home each year over the past five financial years. This indicates a balanced supply and demand, creating stable market conditions.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $541,000. In this current financial year, $6.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows comparable new home approvals per person, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns.

New development consists of 90% standalone homes and 10% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 228 people per approval, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reflects a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi will gain approximately 297 residents by the year 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. AreaSearch identified six projects potentially affecting the area. Notable ones are: M1 Pacific Motorway Tuggerah to Doyalson Widening, Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Cynthia Street Subdivision. The following details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.7% as of June 2025, compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

The area experienced an estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year. As of June 2025, 8,346 residents were in work, with a participation rate similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized, employing 1.6 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Statewide, NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) as of Sep-25, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local growth could be approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that median income in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is $49,485, with an average income of $61,529. This is lower than national averages. Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856 in the same period. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% by March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,730 (median) and $68,051 (average). Census 2021 data indicates that income levels in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi are around the 50th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 34.6% of residents (5,797 people) fall within the $1,500-$2,999 bracket, similar to surrounding regions at 30.9%. Housing costs consume 16.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi was at 34.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented ones at 18.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in the area was $425, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.8% of all households, including 34.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.9% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.0%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.1% and certificates for 32.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. As of the latest data (2016), Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,268 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 980) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced, with 3 primary and 2 secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has 159 active public transport stops. These are served by buses along 92 routes, offering a total of 1,196 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 178 meters to the nearest stop.

Bus services run approximately 170 times daily across all routes, resulting in about 7 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% of its total population (~8,478 people) has private health cover, which is relatively low. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and mental health issues (9.1%). About 64.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. Around 20.7% of the population is aged 65 and over (3,468 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi showed cultural diversity below average, with 87.3% born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 56.6%, similar to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. Top ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notable differences included Maltese at 1.0% (vs regional 1.0%), Maori at 0.7% (vs 0.6%), and Australian Aboriginal at 3.4% (vs 4.5%).

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented locally at 10.5%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.8%. Between January 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.4% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's age profile. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to expand by 388 people (31%), from 1,243 to 1,632. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.