Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to AreaSearch's findings, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi had a population of approximately 16,569 in May 2026. This figure represents a rise of 563 residents, or 3.5%, compared to the 16,006 people recorded in the 2021 Census. The adjustment is derived from the ABS estimate of 16,559 residents in June 2025, plus 293 newly validated addresses added after the Census date. The resulting population density stands at 676 persons per square kilometer, which allows ample space per individual and suggests capacity for additional development. The 3.5% growth since the 2021 census surpassed the SA4 region's 3.4% increase, establishing the area as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration accounted for roughly 65.9% of the population gains in recent times, serving as the main driver of expansion.

AreaSearch relies on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, published in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For SA2 areas lacking this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government projections at the SA2 level, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Age-specific growth rates from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth for statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to gain 501 people by 2041, based on the latest annual ERP population figures, reflecting a total increase of 3.0% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

During the last five financial years, which spanned from FY-21 to FY-25, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi secured development approvals for roughly 73 dwellings each year, bringing the cumulative total to 369 homes. As of the current fiscal period, 51 approvals have been logged for FY-26. An average of 1.5 new residents relocating to the area annually per approved dwelling has contributed to balanced supply and demand conditions, which in turn support stable market dynamics. New construction values average $287,000, a figure that falls below regional standards and suggests a concentration on more accessible housing choices for buyers.

Commercial development remains modest, with $6.8 million worth of approvals recorded this financial year. Construction intensity per capita mirrors that of Greater Sydney, reinforcing regional consistency and market equilibrium. The housing mix consists of 90.0% standalone homes alongside 10.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the locality’s customary low density profile and catering primarily to families desiring spacious living environments.

The area exhibits a population density of approximately 230 people per dwelling approval, further underscoring its low density character. Projected population growth through 2041 stands at 491 additional residents according to the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given existing construction momentum, housing provision is expected to satisfy anticipated demand, offering advantageous circumstances for purchasers and potentially allowing expansion beyond current projections.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Local infrastructure, large-scale projects, and planning initiatives can profoundly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that are expected to influence the region. Among the most significant are the Berkeley Vale Industrial Estate Expansion, Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, Lorraine Gardens Estate, and Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade. The following list outlines those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi features a competent labor pool where essential services are well covered, boasting an unemployment rate of just 2.5% alongside an estimated employment growth of 3.5% during the previous year. As of March 2026, 8,584 residents are employed, placing the local unemployment rate at 1.6% below Greater Sydney's 4.1%, while workforce participation sits somewhat below average at 66.0% versus Greater Sydney's 69.1%. Census data indicates that a high 27.7% of residents worked from home, though the lingering effects of Covid-19 lockdowns should be factored into this figure.

The primary employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out as a particularly strong specialization, with an employment share reaching 1.6 times the regional level, whereas professional & technical services show limited presence at 5.3% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. The predominantly residential nature of the area suggests fewer local employment opportunities, as reflected in the ratio of Census working population to resident population. According to AreaSearch analysis using SALM and ABS data, employment levels rose by 3.5% and the labor force grew by 3.4% during the year to March 2026, maintaining a relatively stable unemployment rate.

In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 1.9%, labor force growth of 1.9%, and a marginal decline in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide additional context for potential future demand in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi. These projections span five and ten-year periods and have been overlaid onto the local employment profile to estimate growth trajectories. While national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth varies considerably across industry sectors. Applying these sector-specific forecasts to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should rise by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023, income levels in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi SA2 sit slightly under the national average. The median income for taxpayers in this area is $52,954 while the average income reaches $65,626. These figures contrast with Greater Sydney values of $60,817 for median and $83,003 for average income. When adjusted for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since the financial year 2023, projected earnings would be roughly $58,419 at the median and $72,399 at the average by March 2026. Census information shows that household, family and personal incomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall modestly, occupying positions between the 46th and 53rd percentiles. The income bracket spanning $1,500 to $2,999 accounts for 34.6% of the local population, representing 5,732 individuals, which aligns with metropolitan patterns where that same bracket holds 30.9% of residents. Housing expenses absorb 16.3% of total income, yet robust earnings keep disposable income at the 53rd percentile and position the area’s SEIFA income ranking within the 5th decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the most recent Census, the residential makeup of Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi showed that 88.0% of structures were houses, whereas 12.0% fell into other dwelling categories such as apartments, semi-detached units, and other types. This contrasts with the Sydney metro region, where houses accounted for 55.9% and other dwellings made up 44.1%. Home ownership rates in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi were significantly higher than those in the Sydney metro, standing at 34.8%. The rest of the housing stock was either mortgaged at 46.6% or rented at 18.6%. The median monthly mortgage payment in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi was notably lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,000. Weekly rent was recorded at $425, which is below the Sydney metro figures of $2,427 and $470. Compared to national benchmarks, mortgage repayments in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and rental costs sit well above the national standard of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Households arranged as families account for 76.8% of the total, which includes 34.8% of couples with children, 28.0% of couples without children, and 13.2% of single parent families. The remaining 23.2% consists of non-family households, where lone person households represent 20.9% and group households make up 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is identical to the average for Greater Sydney.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

University qualification rates in the area stand at 18.0%, which is significantly lower than the 38.0% average found in Greater Sydney. This gap presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher education credential, held by 12.9% of the population. Postgraduate qualifications account for 3.2%, while graduate diplomas make up 1.9%.

Vocational training is highly prevalent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15 and older possessing trade or technical credentials. Advanced diplomas represent 11.1% of these vocational qualifications, and certificates account for 32.2%. Educational participation remains strong, as 27.5% of residents are currently enrolled in formal schooling. Enrolment breaks down into 9.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport network in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi includes 164 active stops that operate buses. These stops are covered by 92 distinct routes, which together facilitate 1,369 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents generally situated 179 meters away from the closest stop. Since the area is mainly residential, most people commute outward, and cars are the primary mode of transport used by 95% of residents. Vehicle ownership stands at 1.7 per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. A significant 27.7% of residents work from home, according to the 2021 Census; this figure may reflect conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The average service frequency is 195 trips per day across all routes, which works out to roughly 8 weekly trips for each individual stop. A map is provided showing the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lagging that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~8,599 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area were found to be arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.6 and 9.1% of residents, respectively, while 64.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,471 people), which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows below average cultural diversity, with 87.3% of residents born in Australia, 92.6% holding citizenship, and 95.6% using English as their sole home language. Christianity is the predominant religion in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, accounting for 56.6% of the local population, compared to 49.2% in Greater Sydney. When examining ancestry based on parents' country of birth, the top three groups in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi are English at 31.5%, which exceeds the regional average of 19.0%, Australian at 31.1%, also above the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish at 8.5%.

There are also noticeable differences in other ethnic representations, with Maltese at 1.0% locally versus 1.0% regionally, Maori at 0.7% compared to 0.4% in the region, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.4% against a regional figure of 1.3%.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a median age of 40, which is slightly above the Greater Sydney average of 37 and also a bit higher than the national figure of 38 years. The local population shows a noticeable surplus in the 65 - 74 age bracket at 10.6%, whereas the 25 - 34 age group is relatively small at 11.8%. Between 2021 and now, the 75 to 84 age segment has increased from 6.4% to 7.6% of residents. On the other hand, the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 13.0% to 11.7%. Demographic modeling predicts that Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi will undergo substantial age structure changes by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is forecast to grow significantly, adding 343 individuals (27%) and rising from 1,257 to 1,601 people. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to make up 79% of all population growth, indicating a rapidly aging community. At the same time, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are anticipated to shrink in size.