Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population, as of Nov 2025, is approximately 16,381. This figure represents a 2.3% increase from the 2021 Census total of 16,006 people. The population estimate of 16,354 by June 2024, along with an additional 288 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates this growth. This results in a density ratio of 668 persons per square kilometer. The area's growth rate of 2.3% since the Census is within 1.4 percentage points of the SA4 region's 3.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is anticipated to grow by 699 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 4.1% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 73 new home approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 369 homes. As of FY26, 26 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were added between FY21 and FY25. The market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions with new homes being built at an average expected construction cost value of $287,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year has seen $6.8 million in commercial development approvals recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows comparable new home approvals per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. New development consists of 90% standalone homes and 10% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space, with around 228 people per approval.

Population forecasts indicate Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi will gain 672 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 11 such projects that could impact this particular area. Notable among these are the Berkeley Vale Industrial Estate Expansion, the Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, Lorraine Gardens Estate, and Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.7% as of September 2025. This is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth in the area over the past year was estimated at 2.8%.

There are 8,435 residents currently employed. Workforce participation is somewhat below standard at 65.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. A high proportion of residents work from home, with 27.7% doing so according to Census responses. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Professional & technical services employ only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force increased by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1%, labour force expand by 2.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended 2023 shows median income in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi SA2 was $52,954, lower than the national average of $65,626. Greater Sydney had a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,646 (median) and $71,440 (average). Census 2021 data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi rank modestly, between the 46th and 53rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 34.6% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (5,667 people). Housing costs consume 16.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, as per the latest Census, 88.0% of dwellings were houses while 12.0% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This differed from Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 34.8%, with mortgaged properties at 46.6% and rented ones at 18.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent figures were recorded at $425, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, mortgage repayments in the area were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 76.8% of all households, including 34.8% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.2%, with lone person households at 20.9% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 32.2%. Educational participation is high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has 164 active public transport stops. These are served by 92 routes, providing 1,369 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, typically living 179 meters from the nearest stop. Most commute outward, with cars being the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, above the regional average. In 2021 Census data, 27.7% of residents worked from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 195 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per stop. The map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~8,501 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area's 59.9%. This compares to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and mental health issues (9.1%). However, 64.8% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments. Working-age residents show a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has 20.7% of residents aged 65 and over (3,390 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi was found to have a cultural diversity below average, with 87.3% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi is Christianity, comprising 56.6%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 49.2%. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are English (31.5%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Maltese (1.0% vs regional 1.0%), Maori (0.7% vs regional 0.4%), and Australian Aboriginal (3.4% vs regional 1.3%) groups have differing representations in Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi compared to the region.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Comparing the area's demographics with the Greater Sydney average, those aged 65-74 are notably over-represented at 10.5%, while individuals aged 25-34 are under-represented at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.4% of the population, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's age profile. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 416 people (34%), from 1,215 to 1,632. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 and 5 to 14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.