Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population was around 16,569 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 563 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,006. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,559 in June 2025 and an additional 293 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 676 persons per square kilometer. Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's growth of 3.5% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 3.4%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilised NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is expected to grow by 501 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 3.0% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi when compared nationally

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 73 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 369 homes. As of FY26, 38 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new homes was $287,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

In FY26, $6.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi shows comparable new home approvals per person, supporting market stability inline with regional patterns. New developments consist of 90% standalone homes and 10% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes.

With around 228 people per approval, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi reflects a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to gain 491 residents by 2041, with current construction levels expected to adequately meet demand and create favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Berkeley Vale Industrial Estate Expansion, Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, Lorraine Gardens Estate, and Wyong South Sewage Treatment Plant Upgrade. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with 2.5% unemployment as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.7%. The area had an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%, and participation rate of 65.4%.

Home workership was high at 27.7%. Key industries were health care & social assistance, construction, retail trade. Construction employment share was 1.6 times the regional level, while professional & technical was 5.3%, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally seemed limited based on resident vs working population counts.

Over December 2024 to December 2025, employment increased by 3.7% and labour force by 3.6%, keeping unemployment stable at 1.7%. In contrast, Greater Sydney's employment grew by 2.2% with a marginal unemployment rise. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi SA2 is $52,954, lower than the national average of $65,626. Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817 with an average of $83,003. By March 2026, estimated incomes are approximately $58,419 (median) and $72,399 (average), based on a 10.32% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census 2021 data shows household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi, between the 46th and 53rd percentiles. The income distribution is dominated by the $1,500-$2,999 bracket, with 34.6% of residents (5,732 people). High housing costs consume 16.3% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 53rd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.0% houses and 12.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi stood at 34.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.6% and rented ones at 18.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent in the area averaged $425, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 76.8 percent of all households, including 34.8 percent that are couples with children, 28.0 percent that are couples without children, and 13.2 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.2 percent, with lone person households making up 20.9 percent and group households comprising 2.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational outcomes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common (12.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (32.2%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.9% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi has 164 active public transport stops, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 92 individual routes, offering 1,369 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents located an average of 179 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to the area's residential nature, with cars being the dominant mode at 95%. The region has an average vehicle ownership of 1.7 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 27.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 195 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~8,599 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and mental health issues (9.1%). Conversely, 64.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents show a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 20.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,471 people), which is higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chittaway Bay-Tumbi Umbi showed lower cultural diversity, with 87.3% born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 56.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. Top ancestral groups were English (31.5%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Maltese (1.0%) and Maori (0.7%) were overrepresented, as was Australian Aboriginal (3.4%).

Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi is 40 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort makes up 10.6% of the local population, compared to the Greater Sydney average, indicating an over-representation in this age group. Conversely, the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 11.8%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.6% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Chittaway Bay - Tumbi Umbi's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 343 people (27%), reaching a total of 1,601 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 79% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 25-34 and 15-24 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.