Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale's population was 22,825 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it is estimated to be around 22,992, reflecting an increase of 167 people (0.7%) since the 2021 Census. This change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 22,990 as of June 2024 and 23 additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,117 persons per square kilometer. Comparing growth rates, Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale's 0.7% increase positions it within 2.4 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.1%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, the area is expected to grow by 860 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a total gain of 3.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has seen approximately 40 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25204 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved so far in FY-26. On average, over these five years, only 0.6 people moved to the area for each dwelling built, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while allowing for population growth beyond current projections.

The average construction cost of new properties was $323,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $18.1 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has significantly less development activity, with 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Similarly, when compared nationally, the area reflects a mature market, potentially indicating development constraints.

The majority of new building activity consists of detached houses (82.0%), with medium and high-density housing making up the remainder (18.0%). This sustains the area's suburban identity, offering family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 647 people per dwelling approval, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain approximately 858 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects expected to influence the area: Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, Cynthia Street Subdivision, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in June 2024 and there was an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 11,045 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, which is 0.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in the area was 55.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 4.8% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8% and labour force increased by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lagged behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 estimated that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale was $51,149 and average income was $63,598. This is below Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $56,571 (median) and $70,339 (average), based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census figures from 2021 rank household, family and personal incomes in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale between the 32nd and 37th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 31.9% of residents earning $1,500 to $2,999 weekly (7,334 residents), similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metropolitan area's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale was at 34.8%, aligning with the Sydney metro figure, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (39.4%) or rented (25.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than the Sydney metro average of $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure stood at $400, exceeding both the Sydney metro ($385) and national averages ($375).

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.6 percent of all households, including 30.5 percent couples with children, 25.9 percent couples without children, and 15.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.4 percent, with lone person households at 25.1 percent and group households comprising 2.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates at 18.2% compared to the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 31.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.9% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.4% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary.

The four schools in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale have a combined enrollment of 1,569 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1004) with balanced educational opportunities. These schools focus on primary education only, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents stand at 6.8, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the area between Bateau Bay and Killarney Vale shows that there are 155 active transport stops currently operating. All these stops are served by bus routes, with a total of 135 individual routes providing service to these locations. Each week, approximately 2,862 passenger trips are made using these routes combined.

The accessibility to public transport in this area is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 162 meters of the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 408 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is less prevalent here than in the average SA2 area, with approximately 51% of the total population (~11,771 people) having it. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.1% of residents) and mental health issues (9.4%). However, 63.7% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 61.5%. The area has a relatively high proportion of seniors, with 22.5% of residents aged 65 and over (5,168 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity index of below average. It reported that 88.2% of its population was born in Australia, with 90.8% being citizens and 95.9% speaking only English at home. Christianity was found to be the predominant religion, comprising 55.9% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.6%), English (31.5%), and Irish (9.2%). Notable differences existed in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Maltese was overrepresented at 1.0%, Australian Aboriginal was 3.8% (vs regional 4.5%), and New Zealanders were at 0.8% (vs regional 0.7%).

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's median age exceeds the national pattern

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 11.7% locally compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 10.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has increased from 12.4% to 13.9%, and the 15-24 cohort has grown from 10.3% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort has declined from 11.9% to 10.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 36%, adding 633 residents to reach 2,369. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 71% of the anticipated growth. However, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 5-14 cohorts.