Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's population is approximately 23,088, indicating a growth of 263 people (1.2%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 22,825. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,990 in June 2024 and an additional 30 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at 2,126 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's growth of 1.2% since census is within 2.5 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.7%), suggesting competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, lower quartile growth is anticipated nationally, with Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale expected to grow by 860 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 3.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has seen approximately 40 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 204 homes have been approved, with an additional 18 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 0.6 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new properties is around $286,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY26, approximately $18.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has significantly less development activity, with 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction often reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

The area's development activity is also lower than national levels, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. New building activity in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale consists of approximately 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% medium and high-density housing. This sustains the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 647 people per dwelling approval, the area reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale will gain approximately 762 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.6% as of September 2021, and employment grew by an estimated 2.4% over the past year. As of September 2025, there are 11,109 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.6%, which is 0.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is 62.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 26.7% of residents work from home. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have lower representation at 4.8%, compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, as of May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale SA2 was $54,745 and average income was $67,845. This is compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to June 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $59,595 (median) and $73,856 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale rank modestly, between the 32nd and 36th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 31.9% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (7,365 residents), similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale was at 34.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (39.4%) or rented (25.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.6% of all households, including 30.5% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 15.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.2%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (31.7%). Educational participation is high at 29.9%, comprising 11.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 160 active transport stops in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale. These are served by 135 individual bus routes, offering 3,053 weekly passenger trips collectively. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 162 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 436 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale area, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is at approximately 53% of the total population (~12,144 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common conditions are arthritis (10.1%) and mental health issues (9.4%), with 63.7% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents have above average chronic health condition prevalence. The area has 22.9% of residents aged 65 and over (5,291 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity index of below average with 88.2% of its population born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 55.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. Ancestry-wise, Australian (31.6%) and English (31.5%) were the top groups, significantly higher than regional averages of 17.8% and 19.0% respectively.

Irish ancestry made up 9.2%. Notable differences included Maltese at 1.0%, Australian Aboriginal at 3.8%, and New Zealand at 0.8%.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median of 38 years. The area has an over-representation of the 65-74 age cohort at 11.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 12.4% to 14.0%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.3% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group declined from 11.9% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 76%, adding 572 residents to reach 1,323. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 73% of the anticipated growth, while population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 25-34 cohorts.