Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's population is approximately 22,995. This figure represents an increase of 170 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 22,825. The change is inferred from ABS estimates of 22,990 in June 2024 and an additional 24 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,117 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 0.7% since the census is within 2.4 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and the latest population numbers, the area is expected to grow by approximately 860 persons by 2041, recording a total gain of around 3.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has seen approximately 40 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 204 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY26. The average population growth per dwelling built over these years was 0.6 people.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost of new properties during this period was $286,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. In FY26, $18.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. However, compared to Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has significantly less development activity, at 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. The types of housing being built in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale are predominantly detached houses, with 82.0% of approvals, and medium to high-density housing making up the remaining 18.0%. This sustains the area's suburban identity, offering a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 647 people per dwelling approval, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain approximately 855 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, Cynthia Street Subdivision, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in June 2021 and the estimated employment growth over the past year was 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 11,045 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in the area is somewhat below standard at 55.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.8% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8% and labour force increased by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that median income in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is $51,149 and average income is $63,598. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes are approximately $57,599 (median) and $71,618 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale rank modestly between the 32nd and 37th percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 31.9% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (7,335 residents), similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale was at 34.8%, with the rest either mortgaged (39.4%) or rented (25.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent figure was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.6% of all households, including 30.5% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 15.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.2%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 31.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.9% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (11.4%), secondary (8.0%), and tertiary (3.3%).

The area's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,569 students and offer balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1004). All four focus on primary education; secondary options are available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 6.8, below the regional average of 13.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 155 active transport stops in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, served by buses. These stops are covered by 135 routes, offering 2,862 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 162 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 408 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions. The area has approximately 51% private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.1% of residents) and mental health issues (9.4%). About 63.7% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 22.5% (totaling 5,169 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely mirroring the general population's health profile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale had a cultural diversity index of 12.8%, with 88.2% of its population born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home as of 2016 Census data. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.9% of people in Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.6%), English (31.5%), and Irish (9.2%).

Notably, Maltese, Australian Aboriginal, and New Zealand Maori populations were relatively higher in Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale compared to regional averages.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's median age exceeds the national pattern

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 11.7% locally compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 12.4% to 13.9%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.3% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 11.9% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 36%, adding 632 residents to reach 2,369. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 71% of anticipated growth, while the 65-74 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to decline in population.