Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's population was approximately 22,995 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 170 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 22,825. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,990 in June 2024 and an additional 24 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a density ratio of 2,117 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 0.7% since the census is within 2.4 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth nationally, with the area projected to grow by 860 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 3.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has seen approximately 40 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 204 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about 0.6 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost of new properties is around $286,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. In FY26, commercial approvals totaling $18.1 million have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity in the area. However, compared to Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has significantly less development activity, with 59.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

The area's building activity is dominated by detached houses, accounting for 82.0% of new constructions, while medium and high-density housing makes up the remaining 18.0%. This sustains the area's suburban identity, with a concentration of family homes suitable for buyers seeking space. With around 647 people per dwelling approval, Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale reflects a highly mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain approximately 855 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects that may affect this area. Notable ones are Cynthia Street Subdivision, Red Bus Planning Proposal at 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade from Wamberal to Bateau Bay. The following list provides details on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a skilled workforce with 3.6% unemployment as of September 2025. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 2.4%.

There are 11,109 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is 4.2 percentage points below Greater Sydney's rate at 55.8%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has notable concentration with levels at 1.7 times the regional average, while professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.8% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, labour force by 3.2%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National forecasts from May-25 estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that median income in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale SA2 is $51,149. Average income stands at $63,598. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale would be approximately $57,599 (median) and $71,618 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 34th percentile in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, family incomes at the 36th percentile, and personal incomes at the 32nd percentile. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 7,335 residents earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly, representing 31.9%. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort also represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale, as per the latest Census, comprised 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale was 34.8%, similar to Sydney metro's figure. Mortgaged dwellings were at 39.4% and rented ones at 25.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Sydney metro's $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.6% of all households, consisting of 30.5% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 15.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 27.4%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.2%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (31.7%). Educational participation is high at 29.9%, with 11.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has 155 operational public transport stops. These are served by buses via 135 different routes, offering a total of 2862 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent accessibility to these services, with an average distance of 162 meters to the nearest stop.

The overall service frequency is 408 trips per day across all routes, resulting in about 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions. The area has approximately 51% private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.1% of residents) and mental health issues (9.4%). A total of 63.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. The area has a significant senior population, with 22.5% aged 65 and over (totaling 5,169 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely mirroring the general population's health profile.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale showed lower cultural diversity, with 88.2% born in Australia, 90.8% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 55.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. Top ancestry groups were Australian (31.6%), English (31.5%), and Irish (9.2%).

Notably, Maltese (1.0%) and Australian Aboriginal (3.8%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 4.5%, respectively. New Zealand representation was also higher at 0.8%.

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale has a median age of 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. The 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale at 11.7%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has increased from 12.4% to 13.9% of the population, and the 15-24 cohort has risen from 10.3% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 11.9% to 10.2%. Demographic modeling projects significant changes in Bateau Bay - Killarney Vale's age profile by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 36%, adding 632 residents, reaching a total of 2,369. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 71% of the population growth. However, declines are anticipated for the 65-74 and 5-14 age cohorts.