Berkeley Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Berkeley Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of 1st Nov 2025, the population of the Berkeley Vale statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 9,198 people. This figure reflects a growth of 247 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 8,951 people in the area. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 9,182 residents following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 271 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1,502 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Berkeley Vale (SA2) has shown a growth rate of 2.8% since the census, positioning it within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.7%. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in Dec 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where ABS data is not available, released in Feb 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts and aggregated SA2-level projections, the Berkeley Vale (SA2) is expected to expand by 282 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.4% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Berkeley Vale when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Berkeley Vale averaging approximately 63 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 319 homes were approved, with an additional 20 approved in FY-26 so far. Over these five financial years, an average of 0.7 people moved to the area per dwelling built.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $541,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $3.5 million, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Berkeley Vale has 65.0% higher construction activity per person.

Recent construction consists of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes. There are approximately 142 people per dwelling approval in the location, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Berkeley Vale to add 217 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest that new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Berkeley Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects expected to affect this region: Berkeley Vale Industrial Estate Expansion, Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, Lorraine Gardens Estate, and M1 Pacific Motorway Tuggerah to Doyalson Widening. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis places Berkeley Vale well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Berkeley Vale has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area.

The unemployment rate is 2.8%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.6% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there are 4,792 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.4% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate is 63.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 4.5% versus the regional average of 11.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population compared to resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.6%, while labour force grew by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points in Berkeley Vale. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Berkeley Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Berkeley Vale had a median taxpayer income of $49,673 and an average of $61,763. Nationally, these figures are lower than the average. Compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003, Berkeley Vale's incomes are lower. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $54,074 and $67,235 respectively, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Berkeley Vale rank modestly between the 47th and 52nd percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant with 37.7% of residents (3,467 people), reflecting regional patterns where 30.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 17.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 52nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Berkeley Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Berkeley Vale, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's dwelling structure of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Berkeley Vale stood at 30.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (47.8%) or rented (21.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Sydney metropolitan average of $1,900 recorded as of June 2021. The median weekly rent figure for Berkeley Vale was $420, compared to Sydney metropolitan's $385. Nationally, Berkeley Vale's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863 reported in December 2020, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375 recorded at the same time.

Berkeley Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 76.1% of all households, consisting of 35.6% couples with children, 24.6% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.9%, with lone person households at 21.2% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Berkeley Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (33.6%).

Educational participation is high at 29.2%, comprising primary education (10.6%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (3.5%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Berkeley Vale has 77 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 78 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,125 weekly passenger trips. The average distance residents live from the nearest transport stop is 145 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 160 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Berkeley Vale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Berkeley Vale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across various age groups, but to a higher degree among older cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51%, covering about 4,725 people in total. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 9.8% and 8.8% of residents respectively. Around 65.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% across Greater Sydney. Approximately 18.0%, or 1,655 people, are aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Berkeley Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Berkeley Vale, in terms of cultural diversity, was found to be below average. Its population comprised 88.4% born in Australia, with 91.7% being citizens, and 95.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Berkeley Vale, making up 52.8% of its population, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three represented ancestry groups were Australian (32.1%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.4%). Notably, certain ethnic groups had divergent representations: Maltese at 0.9% in Berkeley Vale versus 1.0% regionally, Maori at 0.7% versus 0.6%, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.8% versus 4.5%.

Berkeley Vale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Berkeley Vale's median age is nearly 36 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, which is slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Berkeley Vale has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (14.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (13.6%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 75-84 has increased from 5.1% to 6.1%, while the 55-64 age group has decreased from 12.2% to 11.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Berkeley Vale's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 77%, adding 191 residents to reach 440. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 86% of population growth, indicating a trend towards an aging population. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 5-14 age cohorts are expected to decrease in population.