Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Tumbi Umbi is around 5,538. This reflects an increase of 169 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,369. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,520, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 422 persons per square kilometer. Tumbi Umbi's growth rate of 3.1% since the census positions it within 0.6 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.7%). Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to increase its population by 373 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 5.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumbi Umbi according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Tumbi Umbi shows around 10 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 51 homes were approved, with another 5 in FY-26 so far. This suggests solid demand for housing, supporting property values.

The average construction cost per dwelling over these years was $473,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY-26, $2.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered.

New development consists of 92% detached houses and 8% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Tumbi Umbi's traditional low density character. As of FY-25, there were an estimated 681 people per dwelling approval in the area. Future projections estimate a population increase of 312 residents by 2041. Development pace is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, but increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Tumbi Umbi has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects expected to influence this region: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Central Coast Highway Upgrade from Wamberal to Bateau Bay, Red Bus Planning Proposal at 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Tumbi Umbi demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Tumbi Umbi's skilled workforce has an unemployment rate of 3.4%, with estimated employment growth of 2.3% in the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of September 2025, 2,583 residents are employed, with a 0.8% lower unemployment rate compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 59.9%, lagging behind Greater Sydney's 70.0%.

Census data shows 31.0% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 5.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force by 3.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis). National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes, not accounting for localized population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Tumbi Umbi had a lower than average national income level according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $49,515 and the average income was $62,277, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $53,902 (median) and $67,795 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Tumbi Umbi ranked modestly, between the 36th and 44th percentiles. Income brackets indicated that 28.8% of locals (1,594 people) fell into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represented 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tumbi Umbi, as per the latest Census, 81.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 18.8% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumbi Umbi stood at 39.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.7% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,146, lower than Sydney metro's $2,427. The median weekly rent in Tumbi Umbi was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,146 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $410 compared to the national figure of $375.

Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 76.9% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 31.4% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.1%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational attainment in Tumbi Umbi aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.1% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tumbi Umbi has 52 active public transport stops, served by 108 routes offering 1,588 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent accessibility, with an average distance of 192 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, primarily using cars (95%). The area has an average vehicle ownership rate of 1.6 per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 31% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 226 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 226 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Tumbi Umbi are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tumbi Umbi's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population, which is around 2,856 people, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.7%). About 63.3% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has approximately 26.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,439 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumbi Umbi, found in a study dated "June 2021", had below average cultural diversity with 86.0% of its population born in Australia and 92.0% being citizens. English was the language spoken at home by 95.2% of residents. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 61.2%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney as per data from "March 2021".

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Maltese, Russian, and Hungarian groups showed similar representation in Tumbi Umbi compared to regional averages, at 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.

Tumbi Umbi hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Tumbi Umbi is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tumbi Umbi has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (10.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 12.1% to 13.2%, while the 25-34 age group decreased from 9.2% to 7.3%, and the 55-64 age group dropped from 11.6% to 10.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tumbi Umbi's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 30%, reaching 729 people from the current 559. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 80% of the total population growth in Tumbi Umbi. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups are projected to decrease in number.