Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Tumbi Umbi is estimated at around 5,538 people. This reflects an increase of 169 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,369 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,520 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 422 persons per square kilometer. Tumbi Umbi's growth rate of 3.1% since census is within 0.6 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data is not available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to increase by 375 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 6.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumbi Umbi according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 52 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved so far in FY-26. Each dwelling is estimated to have added an average of 2.6 new residents per year over these five years.

The average construction cost value for new homes was $464,000, slightly above the regional average. This financial year has seen $2.9 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting a residential character for the area.

New development consists predominantly of detached houses (92.0%) with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 8.0%, maintaining Tumbi Umbi's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. As of dwelling approvals, there are an estimated 641 people in the area. Future projections suggest that Tumbi Umbi will add approximately 357 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Tumbi Umbi has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely affecting the region: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Central Coast Highway Upgrade from Wamberal to Bateau Bay, Red Bus Planning Proposal at 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct. The following details those most relevant.

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The employment environment in Tumbi Umbi shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.2%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.2%.

As of December 2025, there are 2,598 residents in work and the unemployment rate is 1.0% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation is 59.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 31.0% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical employs only 5.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 3.2% while labour force grew by 3.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Tumbi Umbi had a lower than average income level nationally according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $49,515 and the average income stood at $62,277. These figures compared to Greater Sydney's of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $53,902 (median) and $67,795 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Tumbi Umbi ranked modestly, between the 36th and 44th percentiles. Income brackets indicated that the predominant cohort spanned 28.8% of locals (1,594 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represented 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tumbi Umbi, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.2% houses and 18.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Tumbi Umbi was 39.2%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (43.7%) or rented (17.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,146, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $410, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 76.9% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 31.4% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.1%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people, aligning with the Greater Sydney average.

Educational attainment in Tumbi Umbi aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (30.4%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 8.5% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tumbi Umbi has 52 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a total of 108 different routes that together facilitate 1,588 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 192 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting in Tumbi Umbi is outward-bound, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 95%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 31% of residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 226 trips are made daily, translating to roughly 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Tumbi Umbi are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Tumbi Umbi's health indicators show below-average results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~2,856 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health issues (8.7%). 63.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents show above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 26.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,473 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumbi Umbi's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia and 92.0% being citizens. English was spoken exclusively at home by 95.2% of the population. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 61.2% of Tumbi Umbi's population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (9.3%). Notably, Maltese, Russian, and Hungarian ethnicities had similar representation in Tumbi Umbi as in the region at large, with 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.

Tumbi Umbi hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Tumbi Umbi is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years. This figure is also considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tumbi Umbi has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (10.3%) but fewer individuals aged 25-34 (7.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 grew from 12.1% to 13.5%, while the 35-44 age group increased from 10.3% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group decreased from 9.2% to 7.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tumbi Umbi's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 31%, reaching 749 people from 570. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 78% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. In contrast, both the 25-34 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in number.