Tumbi Umbi

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tumbi Umbi reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Tumbi Umbi is around 5,605, reflecting a growth of 236 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 4.4% change from the previous population count of 5,369. The estimated resident population (ERP) for June 2024 was 5,546, with an additional 7 validated new addresses added since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 427 persons per square kilometer. Tumbi Umbi's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region, which saw a 3.1% increase during the same period. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this population growth.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, with a base year of 2021. By 2041, Tumbi Umbi's population is projected to increase by 389 persons, reflecting a 4.5% total growth over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tumbi Umbi according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Tumbi Umbi has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), around 52 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved in FY-26 to date.

Each dwelling is estimated to accommodate an average of 2.2 new residents per year over these five financial years. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $483,000, aligning with regional trends.

The development consists predominantly of detached houses (86.0%) and townhouses or apartments (14.0%), preserving the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With around 340 people per dwelling approval, Tumbi Umbi exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to grow by approximately 255 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, creating favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond existing projections.

Tumbi Umbi has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting the area: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Central Coast Highway Upgrade from Wamberal to Bateau Bay, Red Bus Planning Proposal at 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Tumbi Umbi has been broadly consistent with national averages

Tumbi Umbi has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%.

Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 1.9%. As of June 2025, 2,556 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Tumbi Umbi is 55.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employ just 5.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 1.9%, labour force by 2.6%, and unemployment rose by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%, labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tumbi Umbi's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming constant population growth for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Tumbi Umbi is lower than average nationally. The median income is $49,465 and the average is $62,218. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $56,994 and an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Tumbi Umbi are approximately $55,703 (median) and $70,064 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Tumbi Umbi rank modestly, between the 36th and 44th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 28.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,614 residents). This pattern is similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tumbi Umbi, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 44th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tumbi Umbi is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As of the latest Census, Tumbi Umbi had 81.2% houses and 18.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 0.0% houses and 0.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tumbi Umbi was at 39.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.7% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,146, aligning with Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent was $410, whereas Sydney metro had no recorded figures for these metrics. Nationally, Tumbi Umbi's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tumbi Umbi has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.7 people

Family households account for 76.9% of all households, including 32.8% couples with children, 31.4% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.1%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.7 people.

Educational attainment in Tumbi Umbi aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (30.4%).

Educational participation is high at 28.0%, with 10.1% in primary education, 8.5% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education. The area has two schools serving 1,234 students: St John Fisher Catholic Primary School and Tuggerah Lakes Secondary College Tumbi Umbi Campus. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1013) with balanced educational opportunities. There are 22.0 school places per 100 residents, indicating strong educational infrastructure serving both local and surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 48 operational stops within Tumbi Umbi, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 107 distinct routes, facilitating a total of 1,410 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 192 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 201 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tumbi Umbi is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tumbi Umbi faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of the total population (~2,889 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (10.8%) and mental health concerns (8.7%), while 63.3% report having no medical ailments, compared to 0% in Greater Sydney. The area has a senior population of 25.8% (1,446 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly consistent with the general population's health profile.

Tumbi Umbi is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tumbi Umbi had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 86.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 61.2% of Tumbi Umbi's population, compared to None% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Maltese (1.1%) was overrepresented in Tumbi Umbi compared to the regional average of None%. Similarly, Russian (0.4%) and Hungarian (0.3%) groups also showed higher representation than the regional averages of None% each.

Tumbi Umbi hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Tumbi Umbi is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Tumbi Umbi has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (9.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 increased from 12.1% to 13.0%, while the proportion of those aged 25-34 decreased from 9.2% to 7.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tumbi Umbi's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 32%, reaching 732 people from the current 554. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Conversely, both the 65-74 and 55-64 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.