Killarney Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Killarney Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of Killarney Vale is around 7,635, reflecting an increase of 144 people since the 2021 Census. The population was 7,491 in 2021. This increase represents a growth rate of 1.9%. AreaSearch validated this estimate by examining ERP data from June 2024 and counting 15 new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 2,528 persons per square kilometer, placing Killarney Vale in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods for the suburb.

For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. The suburb is expected to grow by 202 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 2.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Killarney Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Killarney Vale recorded approximately 28 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 143 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 0.1 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five financial years.

The average construction value for new properties is $323,000. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals totalled $17.0 million, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Killarney Vale has 12.0% less new development per person, placing it among the 40th percentile nationally.

This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. Recent construction comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining Killarney Vale's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 418 people per dwelling approval, the area exhibits signs of a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Killarney Vale is projected to grow by 171 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Killarney Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact the area's performance due to changes in local infrastructure. These key projects are Cynthia Street Subdivision, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct, and Central Coast Local Roads Package. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Killarney Vale shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Killarney Vale has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of December 2025, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment grew by an estimated 3.1% in the past year.

As of December 2025, 3,770 residents were employed with a participation rate of 64.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. About 23.3% worked from home according to Census responses. Dominant sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 3.1% while labour force grew by 3.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Killarney Vale's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data shows that in financial year 2023, Killarney Vale had a median income of $50,579 and an average income of $62,890. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, after an 8.86% increase based on the Wage Price Index, median income in Killarney Vale is estimated to be approximately $55,060 and average income $68,462. Census data indicates that incomes in Killarney Vale rank modestly, between the 30th and 37th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income bracket spans 34.7% of locals (2,649 people), falling within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Killarney Vale, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Killarney Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Killarney Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Killarney Vale stood at 32.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.7% and rented ones at 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,907, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Killarney Vale was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Killarney Vale's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Killarney Vale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.1% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 23.5% and group households accounting for 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Killarney Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (34.1%). Educational participation is high at 30.5%, with 11.6% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 43 active public transport stops in Killarney Vale, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are served by 79 individual routes, facilitating 1,487 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 180 meters to the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward, with cars remaining the primary mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 23.3% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency stands at an average of 212 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 34 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Killarney Vale is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Killarney Vale faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,956 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and arthritis were found to be the most common medical conditions, impacting 10.2 and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, lower than the 74.6% reported across Greater Sydney. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. As of June 2021, 21.1% of residents were aged 65 and over (1,610 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Killarney Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Killarney Vale had a cultural diversity index below average, with 89.6% of its population born in Australia, 91.5% being citizens, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Killarney Vale, comprising 54.4% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, Australian was the top group with 33.0%, substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%.

English followed with 31.8%, also higher than the regional average of 19.0%. Irish ancestry comprised 8.0%. Notable differences were observed in Maltese (1.0% vs 1.0%), Samoan (0.3% vs 0.5%), and Australian Aboriginal (4.2% vs 1.3%) representation.

Killarney Vale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Killarney Vale is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Killarney Vale at 11.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has grown from 12.3% to 14.0%, and the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.7% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 13.5% to 11.3%. Population forecasts for Killarney Vale in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 30%, reaching 686 people from 526. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who represent 69% of the anticipated population increase. Conversely, the 65-74 and 5-14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.