Killarney Vale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Killarney Vale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the Killarney Vale statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 7,634. This figure represents an increase of 143 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,491 people in the same area. The estimated resident population as of June 2024 was 7,604, with an additional 16 validated new addresses added since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 2,527 persons per square kilometer for Killarney Vale (SA2), placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 1.9% since the Census is within 1.8 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in Killarney Vale during recent periods.

For future projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. By 2041, based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Killarney Vale (SA2) is expected to grow by 201 persons, reflecting an increase of 1.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Killarney Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Killarney Vale shows around 31 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 155 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 0.2 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years.

The average construction cost value for new properties is around $323,000. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals totalled $17.0 million. Comparing Killarney Vale to Greater Sydney, it has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas.

Recent construction comprises 81% standalone homes and 19% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban identity. With around 342 people per dwelling approval, Killarney Vale exhibits characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Killarney Vale is projected to grow by approximately 84 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Killarney Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that may affect this region: Cynthia Street Subdivision and Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning. Other notable projects include Berkeley Vale Private Hospital & Medical Precinct and Central Coast Local Roads Package. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Killarney Vale shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Killarney Vale has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent, unemployment rate is 3.4%, and employment growth over the past year is estimated at 2.3%.

As of September 2025, 3740 residents are employed while unemployment rate is 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is slightly below standard at 56.6%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly high share with 1.7 times the regional level, while professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.3% while labour force rose by 3.1%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2260 jobs), with state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a potential increase in Killarney Vale's employment over five years by 6.7%, and over ten years by 13.9%, based on industry-specific projections applied to local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Killarney Vale is below the national average. The median income is $50,579 and the average income stands at $62,890. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,060 (median) and $68,462 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Killarney Vale, between the 30th and 37th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 34.7% of locals (2,648 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Killarney Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Killarney Vale, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 91.7% houses and 8.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Killarney Vale was at 32.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged at 40.7% or rented at 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,907, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro's $1,900 and $385 respectively. Nationally, Killarney Vale's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Killarney Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.1% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 24.5% couples without children, and 17.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 23.5% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Killarney Vale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (34.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.6%), secondary education (8.1%), and tertiary education (2.9%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 43 active stops operating in Killarney Vale, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 79 individual routes, collectively providing 1,487 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 180 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 212 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Killarney Vale is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Killarney Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 52% of the total population (~3,955 people) having it. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.2 and 9.9% of residents respectively. A lower percentage of Killarney Vale residents (62.9%) declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney (61.5%). The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.7% (1,580 people) than Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors in Killarney Vale are broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Killarney Vale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Killarney Vale, as per the findings, had a lower than average cultural diversity with 89.6% of its population born in Australia and 91.5% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 96.0%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.4%, slightly below Greater Sydney's 56.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.0%), English (31.8%), and Irish (8.0%). Notably, Maltese (1.0% vs regional 1.0%), Samoan (0.3% vs 0.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (4.2% vs 4.5%) showed differing representations compared to the region.

Killarney Vale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Killarney Vale is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the 65-74 age group is over-represented in Killarney Vale at 11.5%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 11.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has grown from 12.3% to 13.9% of the population, whereas the 25-34 age group has declined from 13.5% to 11.7%. By 2041, Killarney Vale's population is forecasted to undergo significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 34%, reaching 673 people from the current 503. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 72% of this growth. Conversely, the 65-74 and 5-14 age groups are projected to experience population declines.