Bateau Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Bateau Bay is estimated at around 12,607, reflecting an increase of 91 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 12,516. This change is inferred from the resident population of 12,554 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,816 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Bateau Bay is expected to increase by 611 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.0% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Bateau Bay has experienced around 7 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past 5 financial years. This totals an estimated 37 homes. So far in FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home over these years is 1.8.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $323,000. There have also been $1.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay has significantly less development activity, 86.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, although building activity has accelerated in recent years.

The level is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Bateau Bay's traditional suburban character focused on family homes. With around 1145 people per dwelling approval, the market reflects a highly mature state. Population forecasts indicate Bateau Bay will gain 627 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bateau Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely affecting this region: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Bateau Bay has been broadly consistent with national averages

Bateau Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of September 2025, there were 5,946 residents employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 60.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 28.8% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area had a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employed only 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, and labour force increased by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, suggest potential future demand within Bateau Bay. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors, and localised population projections were not taken into account in these extrapolations.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Bateau Bay is $51,149 and average income is $63,598. This is lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $55,681 and average income would be around $69,233 based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since June 2023. The 2021 Census data ranks Bateau Bay's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 32nd to 34th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 29.7% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with broader trends across the area showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe; only 81.2% of income remains after housing costs, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Bateau Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Bateau Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 79.5% of dwellings were houses while 20.5% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Sydney metro's dwelling structure, which had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.1% and rented ones at 25.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,058, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Bateau Bay was $400, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Bateau Bay's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,058 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 against the national figure of $375.

Bateau Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 70.7% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Bateau Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 30.1%. Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 11.2% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 93 active transport stops in Bateau Bay, served by a mix of bus routes totalling 115. These routes facilitate 2,806 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 162 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant transport mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling, above the regional average.

In 2021 Census data, 28.8% of residents worked from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 400 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bateau Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bateau Bay faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~6,568 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). However, 63.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 25.3% of residents aged 65 and over (3,189 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Bateau Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.6% of its population born in Australia, 90.5% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Bateau Bay is Christianity, comprising 57.3% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are English (31.3%), Australian (30.9%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Maltese, New Zealand, and Australian Aboriginal populations are overrepresented in Bateau Bay compared to regional averages: Maltese at 1.0% vs 1.0%, New Zealand at 0.8% vs 0.5%, and Australian Aboriginal at 3.4% vs 1.3%.

Bateau Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Bateau Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 12.2% of the population in Bateau Bay, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort makes up only 8.6% of Bateau Bay's population. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.7% to 11.1%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 12.5% to 13.9%. However, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 10.8% to 8.6%. Population forecasts for Bateau Bay in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 78%, reaching 920 people from the current 516. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 74% of total population growth, reflecting Bateau Bay's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 65-74 and 25-34 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.