Bateau Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Bateau Bay statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 12,595. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,516 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 12,554 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with four validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,814 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Bateau Bay (SA2) is expected to increase by 622 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.2% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Bateau Bay experienced around 7 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past 5 financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 37 homes. So far in the financial year 2026 (FY-26), 4 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years, an average of 1.8 new residents arrived per new home built.

The market shows balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, with new homes being built at an average expected construction cost value of $323,000. There has also been $1.0 million in commercial approvals in FY-26, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay has significantly less development activity, 86.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. The level is similarly under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations.

Recent construction comprises 89.0% detached houses and 11.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Bateau Bay's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 1145 people per dwelling approval, the area reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Bateau Bay will gain 651 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bateau Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Bateau Bay has been broadly consistent with national averages

Bateau Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.5% in the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 2.4%. As of September 2025, 5,952 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Bateau Bay was 54.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

The area had a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. In contrast, professional & technical services employed just 5.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, and labour force increased by 3.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, covering five and ten-year periods, projected growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bateau Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Bateau Bay is below the national average. The median income is $51,149 and the average income stands at $63,598. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Bateau Bay would be approximately $55,681 (median) and $69,233 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Bateau Bay rank modestly, between the 32nd and 34th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 29.7% of the community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (3,740 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the broader area showing 30.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bateau Bay, with only 81.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 30th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Bateau Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Bateau Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.5% houses and 20.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay was at 37.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (37.1%) or rented (25.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,058, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent figure stood at $400, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Bateau Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Bateau Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.7 percent of all households, including 29.9 percent couples with children, 26.5 percent couples without children, and 13.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.3 percent, with lone person households at 27.3 percent and group households making up 1.9 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Bateau Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (30.1%). Educational participation is high at 29.3%, with 11.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 91 active stops operating in Bateau Bay, served by a mix of bus routes totaling 115. These routes facilitate 2,806 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 162 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 400 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 30 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bateau Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bateau Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.5% of residents) and mental health issues (8.6%). Notably, 63.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Bateau Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 24.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly consistent with the general population's health profile.

Bateau Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay had a cultural diversity below average, with 87.6% of its population born in Australia and 90.5% being citizens. English was spoken by 96.1% at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 57.3%, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.3%), Australian (30.9%), and Irish (9.8%). Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 1.0%, New Zealanders at 0.8%, and Australian Aboriginals at 3.4%.

Bateau Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Bateau Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The age group of 65-74 years has a strong representation at 12.1% compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 age group is less prevalent at 9.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 12.5% to 13.9% of the population, and the 15 to 24 age group increased from 9.7% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group declined from 10.8% to 9.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Bateau Bay. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 37%, reaching 1,489 people from 1,083. Notably, the combined age groups of 65+ will account for 75% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65 to 74 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to experience population declines.