Bateau Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bateau Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Bateau Bay's population is estimated at around 12,559 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 43 people (0.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,516 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 12,555 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 4 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,809 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bateau Bay's 0.3% growth since census positions it within 2.8 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the suburb expected to increase by 622 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 5.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bateau Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Bateau Bay shows approximately 6 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 33 homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 2 new residents arrive per new home each year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, this has accelerated to 14 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost of $323,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms.

In FY-26, $1.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Measured against Greater Sydney, Bateau Bay has significantly less development activity (88.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New construction has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (80.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

With around 6298 people per dwelling approval, Bateau Bay reflects a highly mature market. Future projections show Bateau Bay adding approximately 687 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bateau Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Cynthia Street Subdivision, Uniting Nareen Gardens Village Redevelopment, Red Bus Planning Proposal - 682A Coleridge Road Rezoning, and Central Coast Highway Upgrade - Wamberal to Bateau Bay.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Bateau Bay has been broadly consistent with national averages

Bateau Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9%.

As of June 2025, 5,921 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Bateau Bay lags at 54.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is notably concentrated with levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 5.3% of Bateau Bay's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, labour force by 2.8%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bateau Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, although this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that median income in Bateau Bay is $51,149, with an average income of $63,598. This is lower than the national averages of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). In Greater Sydney, median income is $56,994 and average income is $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from July 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Bateau Bay would be approximately $57,599, with an average income of $71,618. According to the Census conducted on August 2021, household incomes rank at the 32nd percentile, family incomes at the 33rd percentile, and personal incomes at the 34th percentile in Bateau Bay. Income distribution shows that 29.7% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to surrounding regions where 30.9% fall within this range. Housing affordability is severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 30th percentile. Bateau Bay's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Bateau Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Bateau Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 79.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 20.5% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan area had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bateau Bay stood at 37.8%, with mortgaged properties at 37.1% and rented ones at 25.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,058, surpassing Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent in Bateau Bay was $400, higher than the national average of $375 but lower than Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Bateau Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Bateau Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 70.7% of all households, including 29.9% couples with children, 26.5% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Bateau Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate in 20.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (30.1%). Educational participation is high at 29.3%, comprising primary education (11.2%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (3.5%).

Two primary schools serve the area: Bateau Bay Public School and The Central Coast Montessori Primary School, with a total of 688 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1058). Both schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby due to limited local school capacity (5.5 places per 100 residents vs 13.6 regionally), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 89 active transport stops operating within Bateau Bay, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 115 individual routes, collectively providing 2,615 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 162 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 373 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 29 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bateau Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bateau Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~6,543 people), which is higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 49.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.5 and 8.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 63.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Bateau Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.8% (3,114 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. The health outcomes among seniors broadly align with the general population's health profile.

Bateau Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bateau Bay, as per the census data from June 2016, showed a cultural diversity below average. It had 87.6% of its population born in Australia and 90.5% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 96.1%.

Christianity was the predominant religion with 57.3%, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.3%), Australian (30.9%), and Irish (9.8%). Notably, Maltese had a higher representation at 1.0% in Bateau Bay compared to the regional figure of 1.0%. New Zealanders made up 0.8%, slightly above the regional average of 0.7%. Australian Aboriginals were present at 3.4%, lower than the regional average of 4.5%.

Bateau Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Bateau Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age group of 65-74 years has a strong representation at 12.1% compared to Greater Sydney's population, while the 25-34 age group is less prevalent at 9.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has grown from 12.5% to 13.9%, and the 15-24 cohort has increased from 9.7% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has declined from 10.8% to 9.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Bateau Bay. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 38%, reaching 1,490 people from 1,080. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 74% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 65-74 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.