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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
Toukley has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends
The suburb of Toukley's population is estimated at around 4,737 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 180 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,557 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,737, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,287 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Toukley's growth rate of 3.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.4%. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.
AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for statistical areas across the nation. The suburb of Toukley is expected to grow by 910 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 19.2% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Toukley experienced around 20 dwelling approvals per year. Approximately 104 homes were approved between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 12 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with diverse buyer choices.
Average construction value of new homes is $366,000. This financial year, Toukley recorded $30.0 million in commercial development approvals, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley demonstrates similar building activity per person, preserving market equilibrium.
Recent construction comprises 68% standalone homes and 32% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets. At around 351 people per approval, Toukley indicates a mature market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate forecasts Toukley to gain 910 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Toukley
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Toukley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally
AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could impact the area significantly due to their potential influence on local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. These include Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Lakeside Gardens, and Mixed-Use Development 139 Main Road. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
High Speed Rail - Newcastle to Sydney (Line 1)
High Speed Rail Line 1 will connect Newcastle to Sydney on a new dedicated 194km rail line with trains capable of speeds up to 320 km/h on surface sections and 200 km/h in tunnels. Around 115km of the route will run through tunnels. The line will reduce travel time between Newcastle and Sydney to around one hour, with Central Coast trips of about 30 minutes. Six stations are proposed at central Newcastle (Broadmeadow), Lake Macquarie, the Central Coast (Gosford), Sydney Central, Parramatta and Western Sydney International Airport. Following release of the business case in early 2026, the project moved into a two-year Development Phase, with the Australian Government investing a further $230 million for design refinement, environmental and planning approvals, and corridor preservation. The first two major contract packages went to tender in 2026: Area Package 1 (around 35km of twin TBM tunnels, an underground station and associated civil works) and Trains, Systems and Systems Integration (supply of trains, design of all systems, rail depot and operations control centre). The Newcastle to Sydney section is estimated to cost around $61.2 billion by 2039, with a further $32 billion to extend to Western Sydney International Airport by 2042. The project is forecast to support up to 15,000 construction jobs annually at peak and add around $250 billion to the Australian economy over a 50-year appraisal period.
Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant
A proposed seawater desalination water treatment plant adjacent to the existing Toukley Sewage Treatment Plant, being developed as a 'plan ready' drought response project under the Central Coast Water Security Plan. The current concept is a reverse osmosis facility with an initial capacity of 30 ML/day, with provision in the EIS for staged expansion up to 40 ML/day to support normal water supply if needed. The preferred design uses a direct ocean intake located around one kilometre offshore from Jenny Dixon Reserve, with the transfer pump station relocated to the desalination plant site (replacing the earlier Lakes Beach underground well concept under Budgewoi Beach) and connected by a deep tunnel bored about 25 metres below ground. Brine would be discharged via the existing Norah Head ocean outfall. Council is preparing an Environmental Impact Statement, with a community drop-in session held in August 2025 and another planned for the second quarter of 2026. The plant would only be constructed if dam storage falls below the 45 percent trigger at Mangrove Creek Dam, with construction estimated to take 3 to 4 years once activated. GHD has been appointed as the specialist consultant supporting concept design and statutory approvals.
Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment
Proposed expansion and modernisation of Lake Haven Centre, a sub-regional shopping centre owned and managed by Vicinity Centres. Current GLA is approximately 43,207 sqm, anchored by Kmart, Coles, Woolworths, and ALDI. As of February 2026, the project remains in the long-term planning phase; while a formal development application for a full-scale redevelopment is yet to be lodged, Vicinity Centres has recently completed a major $2 million solar installation as part of its sustainability upgrades for the site.
Wyong Hospital Redevelopment
The $200 million Wyong Hospital Redevelopment (completed 2021-2022) delivered a new six-storey clinical services building (Block H) with expanded emergency department, ICU, paediatrics, medical imaging (including the hospital's first MRI), additional inpatient beds, and a medical assessment unit; plus refurbishment of existing facilities adding operating theatre capacity, expanded medical day unit, transit lounge, and cancer day unit expansion. The project significantly increased healthcare capacity for the Central Coast community.
Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale)
Long term residential growth corridor along the Pacific Highway between Kanwal, Lake Haven and Gorokan, forming part of the Warnervale East and Greater Warnervale urban release area. The corridor is planned to deliver around 4,000 new homes over more than 20 years, primarily as low density house and land estates supported by local parks, schools, neighbourhood centres and transport links. Most of the release area is already zoned and either developed or approved, with remaining stages guided by Central Coast Development Control Plan Chapter 5.37 and the 2024 Greater Warnervale Structure Plan. Delivery is occurring progressively through estates such as Rosella Rise and other private subdivisions, with full build out expected by the mid 2040s.
Gorokan Waterfront Masterplan & Foreshore Revitalisation
Council-adopted masterplan guiding staged public domain upgrades to the Gorokan foreshore along Wallarah Road, including improved lake access, shared paths, playgrounds and associated aquatic infrastructure upgrades near Wallarah Point Peace Park. This record summarises the broader waterfront revitalisation intent rather than a single construction contract and reflects works progressing under Central Coast Council's Tuggerah Lakes catchment and open space programs. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1} :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade
Upgrades to the Toukley Town Centre, including footpath improvements, landscaping, and new street furniture to improve pedestrian safety, connectivity, and visual amenity. This is part of a broader masterplan to rejuvenate the town centre.
Lakeside Gardens
A mixed-use development featuring 109 residential apartments and commercial/retail space. The development will have two 11-storey buildings with resort-style landscaping, a pool, and a private jetty on the shore of Budgewoi Lake.
Employment
The labour market performance in Toukley lags significantly behind most other regions nationally
Toukley has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 7.3%, having seen an estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year (AreaSearch data aggregation). As of December 2025, there are 1,912 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 3.2%, which is 1 percentage point higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.
Workforce participation in Toukley stands at 50.5%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 22.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance (1.4 times the regional average), construction, and retail trade. Only 4.5% of local workers are employed in professional & technical services, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.
Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 4.0%, while labour force grew by 4.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data). In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis
AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Toukley's median income among taxpayers is $44,044 and the average is $52,518. Both figures are below the national average. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Toukley's median income are approximately $48,589 and the average is around $57,938 as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Toukley fall between the 4th and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 30.0% of Toukley's community earns between $400 - 799 (1,421 individuals), differing from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toukley, with only 77.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Toukley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
The dwelling structure in Toukley, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 71.0% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley was at 33.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (23.5%) or rented (43.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Toukley was $1,742, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Toukley was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Toukley's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Toukley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households constitute 58.6% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.4%, with lone person households at 37.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
The educational profile of Toukley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics
The area has university qualification rates of 12.4%, significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (32.9%).
Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Toukley has 41 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 740 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents' average distance to the nearest stop being 164 meters. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars remaining the primary mode of transportation at 91%. On average, there is one vehicle per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.
Across all routes, an average of 105 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Toukley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts
Toukley faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A wide range of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% (~2,262 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.
The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (11.3%), while 54.7% report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with high chronic condition rates. Toukley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.3% (1,387 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Toukley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics
Toukley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 86.5% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Toukley is Christianity, comprising 55.0% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups represented in Toukley are Australian (31.9%), English (31.0%), and Irish (8.1%).
Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 5.7% in Toukley compared to 1.3% regionally, Maltese representation is 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Welsh representation is 0.6% versus 0.4%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Toukley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide
Toukley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 14.5% of Toukley's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.9%. This 65-74 concentration is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15-24 age group grew from 9.5% to 11.1%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 9.4% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort declined from 12.2% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling indicates that Toukley's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 73%, adding 378 residents, reaching a total of 900. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 78% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups.