Toukley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Toukley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Toukley's population is estimated at around 4,568 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 11 people (0.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,557 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,560, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 2 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,241 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Toukley's 0.2% growth since census positions it within 2.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (3.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to grow by 807 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 17.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Toukley has experienced around 20 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Approximately 101 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with 7 so far in FY-26. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $366,000, under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year, $6.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley shows comparable building activity per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas, though development activity has moderated recently.

Recent construction comprises 70% standalone homes and 30% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options across various price brackets. With around 379 people per approval, Toukley indicates a mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Toukley is forecasted to gain 781 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Toukley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Central Coast Desalination Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Lakeside Gardens, and Mixed-Use Development 139 Main Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Toukley lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Toukley has a balanced workforce comprising both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 7.5% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.0%. The area's unemployment rate is 3.4% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Toukley lags behind Greater Sydney, at 45.3% compared to 60.0%. Residents' employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a notably high concentration in the former, at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 4.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.0%, while labour force grew by 2.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Toukley's median income among taxpayers is $44,044. The average income in Toukley was $52,518 during this period. Both figures are below the national averages. In Greater Sydney, the median income was $56,994 and the average was $80,856 for financial year 2022. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since then, current estimates suggest Toukley's median income would be approximately $49,598 by September 2025, with the average being around $59,141 during this month. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Toukley fall between the 4th and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 30.0% of Toukley's community earns within the $400 - $799 range (1,370 individuals), which is different from broader areas where the $1,500 - $2,999 category dominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toukley, with only 77.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toukley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Toukley, as per the latest Census evaluation, 71.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 29.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Sydney metro's figures of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley stood at 33.5%, similar to Sydney metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.5% and rented ones at 43.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,742, below the Sydney metro average of $1,900. The median weekly rent in Toukley was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Toukley's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Toukley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.6% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 41.4%, with lone person households at 37.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Toukley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high at 25.4%, with 9.0% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Schools appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. There are 28 different routes serving these stops, offering a total of 708 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 164 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 101 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48%, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (11.3%). Conversely, 54.7% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 61.5%. Toukley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's health profile but present specific challenges.

Toukley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 86.5% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Toukley, making up 55.0% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.9%), English (31.0%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.7% in Toukley versus 4.5% regionally, Maltese at 0.9% (versus 1.0%), and Welsh at 0.6% (versus 0.5%).

Toukley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 11.2% of Toukley's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort represents 10.4%. This 75-84 concentration is higher than the national average of 6.0%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.2%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.5% to 10.7%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 12.2% to 10.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that Toukley's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 256 residents, reaching a total of 768. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 65% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.