Toukley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Toukley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Toukley is around 4,588, reflecting an increase of 31 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 0.7%. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, based on their examination of the June 2024 ABS ERP data release and validation of new addresses, is 4,566 residents. This results in a population density ratio of 1,246 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population growth.

AreaSearch's projections for Toukley are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas, and NSW State Government SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for non-covered areas. These projections indicate an above median population growth is expected by 2041, with Toukley's population projected to increase by 806 persons, reflecting a total increase of 16.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Toukley experienced around 19 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Approximately 98 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, and 7 have been approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction value of new homes is $366,000. This financial year, $30.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley shows comparable building activity per person, maintaining market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas.

Recent construction comprises 70% standalone homes and 30% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets. With around 413 people per approval, Toukley indicates a mature property market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Toukley's population will grow by 754 residents. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though increased competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Toukley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to impact the area, with key ones being Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Lakeside Gardens, and Mixed-Use Development 139 Main Road. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Toukley lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Toukley has a balanced workforce encompassing both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 7.6% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.3%.

Compared to Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%, Toukley's is 3.5% higher, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Toukley lags behind Greater Sydney's, at 49.4% versus 70.0%. Home-based work accounts for 22.7% of jobs, considering potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade are the primary employment sectors in Toukley.

Notably, health care & social assistance employs 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 4.5% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%. From September 2024 to September 2025, employment in Toukley increased by 1.3%, while the labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project overall national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Toukley's median income among taxpayers is $44,044 and the average is $52,518. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $47,946 (median) and $57,171 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Toukley fall between the 4th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 30.0% of individuals earn between $400 - 799, differing from broader areas where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toukley, with only 77.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toukley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Toukley, as per the latest Census evaluation, 71.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 29.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas, where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Home ownership in Toukley stood at 33.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.5% and rented ones at 43.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,742, lower than Sydney's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Toukley was $340, compared to Sydney's $470. Nationally, Toukley's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Toukley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.6% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.4%, with lone person households at 37.7% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Toukley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (9.0%), secondary education (6.8%), and tertiary education (2.5%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 740 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 164 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most people commute outwards, primarily by car (91%). On average, there is one vehicle per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 105 trips per day, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, impacting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~2,191 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (11.3%), while 54.7% report no medical ailments, lower than the 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Toukley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.4% (1,394 people), compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings.

Toukley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens and 86.5% born in Australia. The majority, 94.8%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Toukley, accounting for 55.0% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australian was the largest group at 31.9%, substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%. English ancestry followed closely at 31.0%, higher than the regional average of 19.0%. Irish ancestry made up 8.1% of Toukley's population. Notably, Australian Aboriginal ancestry was overrepresented in Toukley at 5.7%, compared to 1.3% regionally. Maltese and Welsh ancestries were also slightly higher than the regional averages, at 0.9% and 0.6% respectively.

Toukley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 14.5% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 10.0%. This is notably higher than the national average of 9.5% for the 65-74 age group. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.4% to 11.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 9.5% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 12.2% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for Toukley in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 45%, adding 238 residents to reach a total of 771. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 63% of population growth, highlighting the trend towards an aging population. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 0-4 age cohorts.