Toukley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Toukley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Toukley statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,586, reflecting an increase of 29 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,557. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 4,566 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and validation of two new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,246 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this growth. For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2 level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Toukley (SA2) is projected to grow by 809 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Toukley shows approximately 19 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 98 homes were approved, with another 7 so far in FY-26. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $366,000. In the current financial year, $30.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Toukley's building activity per person is comparable to Greater Sydney, preserving market equilibrium with surrounding areas.

Recent construction consists of 70% standalone homes and 30% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets. With around 413 people per approval, Toukley indicates a mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Toukley is expected to grow by 765 residents through to 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections. However, buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Toukley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nine projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Lakeside Gardens, and Mixed-Use Development 139 Main Road. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Toukley lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Toukley's workforce comprises an equal mix of white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 7.7% as of September 2025.

Over the past year, employment grew by 1.3%. Compared to Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%, Toukley's is 3.5% higher, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Toukley stands at 45.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment areas are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with health care notably concentrated at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical jobs account for only 4.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area may lack local job opportunities, as shown by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force by 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Statewide, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% between November 2024 and November 2025, losing 2,260 jobs, while the state unemployment rate was 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley's employment mix suggests local job growth could reach 6.7% in five years and 13.8% in ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In Toukley's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, median income among taxpayers is $44,044 with an average of $52,518. This is below national averages. Greater Sydney's median is $60,817 and average is $83,003. With a Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $47,946 (median) and $57,171 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Toukley's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 4th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.0% of Toukley residents earn between $400 - $799 (1,375 individuals), unlike broader areas where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 77.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toukley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Toukley's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 71.0% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley was at 33.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.5% and rented dwellings at 43.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,742, lower than Sydney metro's $1,900. Median weekly rent in Toukley was recorded at $340, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Toukley's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Toukley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.6% of all households, including 16.7% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.4%, with lone person households at 37.7% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Toukley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 25.4% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.0% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 740 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 164 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 105 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley faces significant health challenges, with a variety of conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Only approximately 48% (~2,190 people) have private health cover, compared to 50.4% across Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.2% of residents) and mental health issues (11.3%).

Conversely, 54.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Toukley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.4% (1,348 people), compared to 22.3% in Greater Sydney. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with the overall population's health profile.

Toukley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 89.0% of its population being citizens, 86.5% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Toukley, comprising 55.0%, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.9%), English (31.0%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.7% in Toukley compared to the regional average of 4.5%. Maltese and Welsh populations were also slightly higher at 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, than their regional averages of 1.0% and 0.5%.

Toukley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley's median age is 47 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 11.2% of Toukley's population, compared to Greater Sydney's figure, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 10.4%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.2%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.5% to 10.7%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 12.2% to 10.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that Toukley's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 254 residents, reaching a total of 768. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 65% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, populations in the 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are projected to decline.