Toukley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Toukley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the Toukley statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 4,568 people. This reflects an increase of 11 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 4,557 in the same area. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 4,560. This results in a population density ratio of 1,241 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Toukley (SA2) has experienced a growth rate of 0.2% since the Census date, positioning it within 2.9 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

For population projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. The Toukley (SA2) is projected to grow by an above median rate, adding 807 persons to its population by the year 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Toukley has experienced around 20 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 102 homes were approved. In FY-26, 8 dwellings have been approved so far.

Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction cost value of new homes is $366,000. This financial year, $6.8 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating Toukley's primarily residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Toukley shows comparable building activity per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. Recent construction comprises 70% standalone homes and 30% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of medium-density options across price brackets. Toukley indicates a mature market, with around 363 people per approval. Population forecasts suggest Toukley will gain 781 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Toukley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects expected to influence the region. Notable initiatives include Central Coast Desalination Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Lakeside Gardens, and Mixed-Use Development 139 Main Road. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Toukley lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Toukley's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 7.8%.

Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 1.1%. As of September 2025, 1,780 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Greater Sydney's at 3.6%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags behind Greater Sydney at 45.3%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance (1.4 times the regional average), construction, and retail trade.

Professional & technical services employ only 4.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as shown by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had an employment growth of 2.1% and a labour force growth of 2.4%, with a smaller increase in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment will expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toukley's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 indicates Toukley's median income among taxpayers is $44,044 and the average is $52,518. This is below the national average. In comparison, Greater Sydney has a median income of $56,994 and an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Toukley's median income would be approximately $49,598 and the average would be around $59,141 as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Toukley fall between the 4th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.0% of Toukley residents earn between $400 - $799 (1,370 individuals), which differs from the broader area where earnings predominantly fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toukley, with only 77.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toukley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Toukley's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 71.0% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley was at 33.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (23.5%) or rented (43.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,742, lower than Sydney metro's $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Toukley was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $385 and the national figure of $375.

Toukley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.6% of all households, consisting of 16.7% couples with children, 26.2% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 41.4%, with lone person households at 37.7% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Toukley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 9.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 42.6% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 28 different routes that together facilitate 708 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 164 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 101 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~2,181 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.2% of residents) and mental health issues (11.3%). However, 54.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, lower than the Greater Sydney average of 61.5%. Toukley has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 29.4% (1,342 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors largely mirror those of the general population.

Toukley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley had a lower cultural diversity, with 89.0% citizens, 86.5% born in Australia, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 55.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.9%), English (31.0%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 5.7% in Toukley versus 4.5% regionally, Maltese at 0.9% versus 1.0%, and Welsh at 0.6% versus 0.5%.

Toukley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 11.2% of Toukley's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage and significantly higher than the national figure of 6%. In contrast, the 25-34 age cohort makes up 10.4% of Toukley's population. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group grew from 9.4% to 11.2%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 9.5% to 10.7%. However, the 25-34 cohort declined from 12.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Toukley's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 50%, adding 256 residents and reaching a total of 768. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 65% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts.