Toukley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Toukley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Toukley's population is estimated at around 4,588 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 31 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,557 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,566 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,246 persons per square kilometer, above average national levels assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove recent population growth in the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate above median population growth nationally, with Toukley expected to grow by 811 persons to 2041, reflecting a 17.2% increase over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toukley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Toukley has seen around 20 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis. Approximately 104 homes were approved between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 9 approved in FY-26 to date. The average construction cost of new homes is $366,000.

Toukley has recorded $30.0 million in commercial development approvals this financial year. Despite population decline in recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with varied buyer choices. Recent construction comprises 68% standalone homes and 32% townhouses or apartments, offering diverse medium-density options across price brackets.

Toukley's development activity is comparable to Greater Sydney on a per person basis, preserving market equilibrium. However, recent periods have seen some moderation in development activity. The population is expected to grow by 789 residents by 2041, potentially increasing buyer competition as the population increases.

Toukley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could impact the area, with key ones including the Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Toukley Town Centre Public Domain Upgrade, Lakeside Gardens, and Mixed-Use Development 139 Main Road. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Toukley lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Toukley has a balanced workforce encompassing white collar and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area. The unemployment rate was 7.4% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 1,800 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.2% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Toukley lagged significantly at 49.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, a moderate 22.7% of residents worked from home. Employment among residents was concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Notably, employment levels in health care & social assistance were at 1.4 times the regional average. In contrast, professional & technical services employed only 4.5% of local workers, lower than Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, while labour force increased by 3.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 could provide further insight into potential future demand within Toukley. These projections estimated national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Toukley's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years. However, it is important to note that this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 indicates Toukley's median income among taxpayers is $44,044. The average income in the suburb was $52,518 during this period. Both figures are below national averages. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $60,817 and an average of $83,003 for the same financial year. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes in Toukley would be approximately $47,946 (median) and $57,171 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in Toukley all fall between the 4th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the $400 - $799 earnings band captures 30.0% of Toukley's community (1,376 individuals), unlike broader areas where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures in Toukley are severe, with only 77.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toukley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Toukley, as per the latest Census, consisted of 71.0% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toukley stood at 33.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.5% and rented ones at 43.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,742, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Toukley was $340, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Toukley's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Toukley features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.6 percent of all households, including 16.7 percent couples with children, 26.2 percent couples without children, and 14.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.4 percent, with lone person households at 37.7 percent and group households comprising 3.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Toukley exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.0% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toukley has 41 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 28 individual routes that provide 740 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these transport services is rated excellent, with residents typically located 164 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuting in Toukley is outward-bound, with car being the dominant mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 105 trips per day, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toukley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toukley faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% (2,191 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common conditions in Toukley, affecting 12.2% and 11.3% of residents respectively. However, 54.7% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors (30.4%, or 1,394 people) than Greater Sydney (15.4%). While senior health outcomes align with national rankings, some challenges exist among this age group.

Toukley is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toukley's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being Australian citizens and 86.5% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 94.8% of residents. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.0% of Toukley's population compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australian heritage comprised 31.9% of Toukley's population, significantly higher than the regional average of 17.8%. English ancestry made up 31.0%, surpassing the regional average of 19.0%. Irish ancestry was also notable at 8.1%. Some ethnic groups showed significant differences in representation: Australian Aboriginal heritage was notably higher at 5.7% compared to the regional average of 1.3%. Maltese and Welsh heritages were also slightly higher, at 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.

Toukley hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toukley's median age is 48 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 14.5% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 10.0%. This is considerably higher than the national average for the 65-74 age group, which stands at 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.4% to 11.6%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 9.5% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 12.2% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for Toukley indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 45%, adding 241 residents and reaching a total of 774. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 63% of population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 0-4 and 5-14.