Gorokan

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Gorokan statistical area (Lv2) is around 8,924. This figure reflects a growth of 300 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,624. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,673 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 25 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,897 persons per square kilometer, placing Gorokan (SA2) in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 3.5% since the census is within 0.2 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 3.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains in recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Gorokan (SA2) population is expected to increase by just below the median of national statistical areas, with an expansion of 617 persons projected by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 5.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Gorokan, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Gorokan has received approximately 15 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 75 homes. As of FY26, four approvals have been recorded. The population has declined recently, suggesting that new supply is meeting demand and offering varied housing choices to buyers at an average construction cost value of $205,000, which is below regional norms.

In FY26, commercial development approvals amounting to $2.2 million have been recorded, indicating Gorokan's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan has 60.0% lower building activity per person. This scarcity typically boosts demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, building activity in Gorokan is also lower, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, providing options across various price points.

With around 625 people per dwelling approval, Gorokan reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Gorokan is projected to add 472 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Gorokan has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified three projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), Gorokan Waterfront Masterplan & Foreshore Revitalisation, and Madison Rise Estate. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Gorokan lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Gorokan's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate was 7.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year. The area had 3,700 residents employed while its unemployment rate was 2.9% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Gorokan was 49.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance had an employment share 1.4 times the regional level but professional & technical services were under-represented at 3.2% of Gorokan's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, labour force by 3.1%, raising unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gorokan's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Gorokan's median income among taxpayers is $46,520 and the average is $55,850. This is lower than national averages. Greater Sydney has a median of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,642 (median) and $60,798 (average). Census data indicates Gorokan's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 10th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.4% of individuals earn $800 - $1,499, unlike broader trends where 30.9% earn $1,500 - $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Gorokan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Gorokan's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gorokan was at 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 38.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gorokan was $1,603, lower than Sydney metro's $1,900. The median weekly rent figure in Gorokan was recorded as $350, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Gorokan's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Gorokan features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, consisting of 33.2% lone person households and 4.0% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gorokan faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.2%) and certificates (34.7%). Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.5% in primary, 7.2% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gorokan has 47 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 49 different routes that together facilitate 1,335 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to these stops, with an average distance of 178 meters to the nearest one.

The service frequency is high, with an average of 190 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 28 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Gorokan is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Gorokan faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of Gorokan's total population, around 4,379 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, impacting about 11.7% and 11.4% of residents respectively. Around 57.0% of Gorokan residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to approximately 61.5% across Greater Sydney. About 22.3%, or around 1,990 people, are aged 65 and over in Gorokan. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Gorokan is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.8% of its population being citizens, 87.1% born in Australia, and 94.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Gorokan, comprising 53.2% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.2%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 5.3% in Gorokan versus the regional average of 4.5%. Maltese and Maori populations were also similarly represented in Gorokan as they were regionally, at 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively.

Gorokan's median age exceeds the national pattern

Gorokan's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.3%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (11.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group increased from 11.2% to 11.8%, while the 85+ cohort decreased from 2.7% to 1.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Gorokan's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 37%, adding 267 residents for a total of 990. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 70% of the population growth, while the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to decline in population.