Gorokan

An assessment of population growth drivers in Gorokan reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Gorokan is around 8,450, a decrease of 174 people (2.0%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 8,624. This estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 8,312. The population density ratio is 2,743 persons per square kilometer, placing Gorokan in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Gorokan is expected to increase by 611 persons to 2041, reflecting an 11.1% gain over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Gorokan is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Gorokan has experienced around 12 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years ending June 30, totalling an estimated 64 homes. So far in the financial year 2025-26 (FY-26), 1 approval has been recorded. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $205,000, reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers compared to regional norms.

Additionally, $1.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan records markedly lower building activity, 66.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new dwellings typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 78.0% houses), potentially reflecting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles.

With around 1458 people per dwelling approval, Gorokan reflects a highly mature market. Future projections show Gorokan adding approximately 940 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate (released June 2023). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Gorokan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified three projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Lake Haven Centre Redevelopment, Kanwal-Lake Haven-Gorokan Growth Corridor (Warnervale East / Greater Warnervale), Gorokan Waterfront Masterplan & Foreshore Revitalisation, and Madison Rise Estate.

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The labour market performance in Gorokan lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Gorokan's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.0% as of an unspecified past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.1%.

As of June 2025, there were 3,663 employed residents, an unemployment rate of 9.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 49.0%. Key industries for Gorokan residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 3.2% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified date, Gorokan saw employment increase by 1.1%, while the labour force grew by 2.4%, resulting in a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gorokan's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Gorokan's median income among taxpayers is $46,520. The average income in Gorokan during this period was $55,850. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Sydney, the median income was $56,994 and the average was $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $52,386 (median) and $62,893 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Gorokan fall between the 10th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.4% of Gorokan residents earn between $800 - $1,499 annually, which is different from broader trends where 30.9% earn between $1,500 - $2,999. Housing affordability pressures in Gorokan are severe, with only 78.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Gorokan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Gorokan's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gorokan was at 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.9% and rented ones at 38.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gorokan was $1,603, lower than Sydney metro's $1,900. The median weekly rent figure in Gorokan was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Gorokan's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Gorokan features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.7% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.3%, with lone person households at 33.2% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gorokan faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.2%) and certificates (34.7%). Educational participation is high at 27.1%, including primary education (9.5%), secondary education (7.2%), and tertiary education (3.2%).

Gorokan Public School serves the area, with an enrollment of 600 students as of its establishment in 1988. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA score of 910, indicating varied educational conditions. School places per 100 residents are lower at 7.2 compared to the regional average of 13.6.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Gorokan shows 47 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 49 individual routes that collectively provide 1,277 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 178 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 182 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 27 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Gorokan is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Gorokan faces significant health challenges, with various health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~4,146 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (11.7%) and arthritis (11.4%), while 57.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. As of June 20XX, 22.1% of Gorokan's population is aged 65 and over (1,867 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Gorokan is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gorokan's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.8% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (87.1%), and speaking English exclusively at home (94.0%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Gorokan, comprising 53.2% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.1% of Gorokan's population compared to Greater Sydney's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (31.1%), and Irish (8.2%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 5.3% in Gorokan versus 4.5% regionally, Maltese remained unchanged at 1.0%, and Maori showed a slight increase from 0.6% to 0.8%.

Gorokan hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Gorokan's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gorokan has a notably higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (12.2%) and a lower proportion aged 35-44 (11.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group increased from 11.2% to 11.8%, while the 85+ cohort decreased from 2.7% to 1.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Gorokan's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 46%, adding 314 residents to reach 990. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 55% of the population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 35-44 and 0-4 age cohorts.