Swansea - Caves Beach

Population growth drivers in Swansea - Caves Beach are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Swansea - Caves Beach's population is around 13,179 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 620 people (4.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,559 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,987 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 223 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 406 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Swansea - Caves Beach's 4.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.1%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 64.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above-median population growth for locations outside of capital cities is projected, with the area expected to expand by 2,622 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 18.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Swansea - Caves Beach among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Swansea - Caves Beach has seen around 97 new homes approved per year, with 487 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 35 so far in FY-26. With an average of 1.6 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $480,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $8.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Swansea - Caves Beach has 86.0% more new home approvals (per person), which should provide buyers with ample choice, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. New development consists of 90.0% detached dwellings and 10.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 180 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, Swansea - Caves Beach is expected to grow by 2,427 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Swansea - Caves Beach has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Caves Beach Ambulance Station, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, 42-44 Lake Road Residential Development, and South East Growth Area Plan, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Swansea - Caves Beach shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Swansea - Caves Beach features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.7%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,982 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.3% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (56.5% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 28.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 0.4% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 0.2% alongside the labour force increasing by 1.5%, resulting in unemployment rising by 1.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Swansea - Caves Beach. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Swansea - Caves Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The Swansea - Caves Beach SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $52,858 and an average of $68,743 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is just above the national average, contrasting with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,541 (median) and $74,834 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Swansea - Caves Beach, between the 25th and 30th percentiles. Distribution data shows the predominant cohort spans 27.3% of locals (3,597 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 29th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Swansea - Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Swansea - Caves Beach, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 79.9% houses and 20.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Swansea - Caves Beach was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 45.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (32.5%) or rented (22.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional NSW average at $2,080, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Swansea - Caves Beach's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Swansea - Caves Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 72.0% of all households, comprising 26.6% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional NSW average.

Swansea - Caves Beach shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (19.3%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (31.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 168 active transport stops operating within Swansea - Caves Beach, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 711 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 190 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. A high 28.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 101 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Swansea - Caves Beach's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Swansea - Caves Beach's health metrics sit close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical, though higher than the national average among older cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~7,024 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.2% and 8.6% of residents, respectively, while 60.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 27.9% of residents aged 65 and over (3,680 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Swansea - Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Swansea - Caves Beach was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 93.4% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Swansea - Caves Beach is Christianity, which makes up 55.1% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Swansea - Caves Beach are English, comprising 33.1% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 1.0% of Swansea - Caves Beach (vs 0.5% regionally), Scottish at 8.6% (vs 8.0%) and Maltese at 0.6% (vs 0.4%).

Swansea - Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

With a median age of 49, Swansea - Caves Beach is notably exceeding the Regional NSW figure of 43 and is well above Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (15.1% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (7.3%). In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.6% to 11.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.1% to 12.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Swansea - Caves Beach's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 431 people (35%) from 1,223 to 1,655. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort grows by a modest 0% (2 people).