Swansea - Caves Beach

Population growth drivers in Swansea - Caves Beach are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to research by AreaSearch, the population of Swansea - Caves Beach is estimated to be approximately 13,162 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 603 residents (4.8%) relative to the 2021 Census, which recorded 12,559 people. This shift is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 13,153 as of June 2025 alongside 222 validated new addresses identified since the Census. With these figures, the population density stands at 406 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density and capacity for potential future expansion. The 4.8% growth rate since the 2021 census outpaced the broader SA3 region (3.2%), positioning the locality as a regional growth leader. This population rise was largely propelled by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 63.7% of the total population growth in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for each SA2 locality, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline. For locations where this data is unavailable, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are applied. Expected growth rates by age group derived from these datasets are projected forward for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these anticipated demographic transitions, the locality is projected to experience population growth above the median for regional Australia, adding 2,415 residents by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP figures, which represents an overall increase of 18.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Swansea - Caves Beach among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Swansea - Caves Beach has recorded an average of approximately 97 new residential approvals annually, amounting to 487 dwellings over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, there have been 60 approvals registered. With an average of 1.6 new residents moving in per completed dwelling over the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, supply and demand appear to be in equilibrium, support market stability, while new houses are constructed at an average cost of $480,000, indicating that builders are prioritizing high-end, premium properties. In addition, commercial development remains a minor focus, with $8.2 million in commercial approvals registered during this financial year.

Building activity per person in Swansea - Caves Beach is 86.0% higher than in the Rest of NSW, providing home buyers with more options, even though the pace of construction has moderated lately. The bulk of recent building activity consists of detached houses at 90.0%, with medium and high-density options representing just 10.0%, preserving the historically low-density profile of the neighborhood and highlighting spacious homes for families. The ratio of residents to dwelling approvals is about 182 people per dwelling approval, which reflects a low-density building market.

Demographic predictions suggest that Swansea - Caves Beach will add 2,400 residents up to 2041 based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly figures. Current building volumes seem aligned with projected demand, supporting balanced market conditions without driving up prices excessively.

Swansea - Caves Beach has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, major planning decisions, and new developments have a significant impact on local performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 key projects expected to influence the local area. The most relevant projects include the Caves Beach Ambulance Station, the Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, the 42-44 Lake Road Residential Development, and the South East Growth Area Plan, with details on key projects provided below.

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Employment performance in Swansea - Caves Beach has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

The workforce in Swansea - Caves Beach is characterized by a strong presence of skilled workers, particularly in essential service industries, with an unemployment rate sitting at 4.1%. As of March 2026, there are 5,915 employed residents, matching the Regional NSW average unemployment rate of 4.1%, though the local participation rate of 55.3% is notably lower than the Regional NSW benchmark of 60.6%. Census data reveals that a substantial 28.0% of local workers operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic-related lockdowns.

The primary employment fields for local citizens are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The construction sector is especially prominent, employing workers at a rate 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, agricultural, forestry, and fishing enterprises employ only 0.4% of the workforce, which is below the 5.3% average for Regional NSW. A comparison between the census count of working residents and those employed locally suggests that the area has a limited supply of local jobs.

According to an analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch, the size of the local labour force contracted by 0.4% during the 12 months ending March 2026, while total employment fell by 2.2%, leading to a 1.7 percentage point increase in unemployment. Over the same timeframe, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 0.9% and the labour force contract by 0.4%, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point rise. National employment forecasts published by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional context on potential employment trajectories for Swansea - Caves Beach. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future opportunities. Nationally, employment is predicted to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary widely. Extrapolating these national trends to the local industry mix suggests employment inside Swansea - Caves Beach could grow by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, representing a simple weighted model that does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to aggregated postcode-level ATO data analysed by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, the Swansea - Caves Beach SA2 recorded a median taxpayer income of $52,858 and an average income of $68,743. This is slightly above the national average, and compares to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 stand at roughly $58,313 for the median and $75,837 for the average. In contrast, 2021 Census data shows that household, family, and individual incomes are modest, falling between the 25th and 30th percentiles. The largest income bracket contains 27.3% of the population (3,593 residents) earning between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, which is similar to the wider region where 29.9% are in this bracket. Housing affordability presents a major challenge, with residents retaining only 83.4% of their income, placing the area in the 29th percentile and the 5th decile for the SEIFA income index.

Swansea - Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the last Census, the housing stock in Swansea - Caves Beach consisted of 79.9% separate houses and 20.2% semi-detached, apartment, or other dwelling types, compared to 82.6% separate houses and 17.4% alternative dwellings in Regional NSW. Home ownership rates are exceptionally high at 45.5% of households owning their home outright, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (32.5%) or rented (22.0%). The median mortgage payment in the area was $2,080 per month, which is higher than the Regional NSW median of $1,733, while the median weekly rent was $360, compared to $330 in Regional NSW. On a national level, mortgage repayments in Swansea - Caves Beach are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, whereas rental prices fall below the national average of $375.

Swansea - Caves Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

The majority of households are families at 72.0%, which includes couples with children at 26.6%, couples without children at 32.2%, and single parents at 12.1%. Non-family households account for 28.0% of the total, with single-person households representing 26.1% and group housing making up 1.9%. The median household occupancy is 2.4 people, matching the average for Regional NSW.

Swansea - Caves Beach shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment levels present a challenge in the area, as the proportion of residents holding a university qualification (19.3%) is considerably lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap highlights an opportunity for targeted educational support. Among those with degrees, bachelor qualifications are the most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational skills are highly represented, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding a technical qualification, split between advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (31.0%).

A significant proportion of the population is engaged in learning, with 25.2% of residents enrolled in an educational institution. This group comprises 9.4% in primary schools, 7.2% in high schools, and 3.3% undertaking tertiary studies.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of the local transit network shows there are 168 active transport stops in Swansea - Caves Beach, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 25 different routes, which provide a total of 711 passenger trips weekly. Accessibility is rated as excellent, with the average distance to the nearest stop being 190 meters. The area is predominantly residential and most workers commute out of the district, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel at 95%. Households average 1.5 motor vehicles, and 28.0% of working residents work from home, based on 2021 Census data which may reflect pandemic restrictions.

Transit services average 101 trips daily across all routes, which translates to roughly 4 weekly trips for each stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest stops relative to the center of the locality.

Health outcomes in Swansea - Caves Beach are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality and chronic illness data, health outcomes in Swansea - Caves Beach are below average. While overall rates of common health conditions are typical for the general population, they are higher than the national average among older age brackets, and the level of private health insurance is slightly above the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the population, which is about 7,015 people.

The most prevalent health conditions reported in the area are arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 12.2% and 8.6% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 60.7% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Chronic conditions are also elevated among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over represent 28.5% of the local population (3,747 people), which is higher than the Regional NSW average of 23.4%. Although seniors face health challenges, their outcomes rank more favorably nationally than those of the broader local population.

Swansea - Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

The population of Swansea - Caves Beach exhibits lower levels of cultural diversity than average, with 88.5% of residents born in Australia, 93.4% holding citizenship, and 96.3% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, adhered to by 55.1% of the population, which is comparable to the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

Regarding parental ancestry, the three largest ethnic groups in Swansea - Caves Beach are English at 33.1% of the population, Australian at 29.9%, and Irish at 8.8%. There are also minor differences in other heritages, with Welsh ancestry overrepresented at 1.0% compared to 0.5% regionally, Scottish ancestry at 8.6% compared to 8.0%, and Maltese ancestry at 0.6% compared to 0.4%.

Swansea - Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Swansea - Caves Beach has a median age of 49, which is older than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38 years. The 65 - 74 age group is overrepresented at 14.9% locally compared to Regional NSW, while 25 - 34 year-olds are underrepresented at 7.0%. The concentration of residents aged 65 - 74 is also higher than the national average of 9.4%. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 grew from 9.6% to 11.5%, while the 45 to 54 bracket fell from 13.1% to 12.1%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic models project notable changes in the age profile, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 453 people (35%) from 1,289 to 1,743, while the number of residents aged 15 to 24 is projected to fall by 0.