Swansea - Caves Beach
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Swansea - Caves Beach are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Swansea - Caves Beach's population is approximately 13,156 as of August 2025. This represents an increase of 597 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,559. The change is inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 12,984 in June 2024 and 217 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 405 persons per square kilometer. Swansea - Caves Beach's growth of 4.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 2.8%, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.3% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for Australia's regional areas, with the area projected to expand by 2,622 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 18.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Swansea - Caves Beach among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Swansea - Caves Beach has recorded approximately 97 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, there were 487 dwellings approved, with an additional 11 approvals so far in FY-26. Over these past five years, an average of 1.6 new residents per year arrived per new home.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, contributing to stable market dynamics. The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $698,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have been $8.2 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Relative to Rest of NSW, Swansea - Caves Beach shows 86.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice.

However, construction activity has eased recently. The recent construction comprises 90.0% detached houses and 10.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location currently has approximately 180 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts indicate Swansea - Caves Beach will gain 2,450 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Swansea - Caves Beach has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 12 projects that could significantly impact the area, primarily through changes in local infrastructure, major developments, and planning initiatives. Notable projects include the Caves Beach Ambulance Station, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, 42-44 Lake Road Residential Development, and South East Growth Area Plan. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Swansea - Caves Beach has been broadly consistent with national averages

Swansea - Caves Beach has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in June 2025, which is 0.9% below the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%. As of June 2025, 6,023 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 52.0%, slightly below the Rest of NSW's rate of 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area has a particular specialization in construction, employing 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.4% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Analysis over the 12 months to June 2025 showed employment increased by 2.2%, but labour force grew by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% and a labour force growth of 0.3%. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swansea - Caves Beach's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7%% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Swansea - Caves Beach had a median taxpayer income of $49,401 and an average income of $67,231 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was slightly above the national average, compared to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $54,638 (median) and $74,357 (average). In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Swansea - Caves Beach ranked modestly, between the 26th and 30th percentiles. The distribution data showed that the largest segment comprised 27.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,591 residents), reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 29.9% similarly occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 29th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Swansea - Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Swansea - Caves Beach, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.9% houses and 20.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swansea - Caves Beach stood at 45.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.5% and rented ones at 22.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,080, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $360, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Swansea - Caves Beach were significantly higher at $2,080, while rents were lower at $360.

Swansea - Caves Beach has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.0% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5 people.

Swansea - Caves Beach shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 19.3%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 31.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.4% in primary education, 7.2% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education. Swansea - Caves Beach's five schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,606 students as of the latest data available. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1001) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with four primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Swansea's public transport analysis shows 144 active stops operating in Caves Beach, all of which are bus routes. These routes are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 698 weekly passenger trips. The average distance residents live from the nearest stop is 190 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 99 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Swansea - Caves Beach is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Swansea - Caves Beach faces substantial health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups show high prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 53% (~7,025 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than the average. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 12.2 and 8.6% of residents respectively. However, 60.7% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 27.7% (3,648 people) aged 65 and over, compared to 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging, generally mirroring the overall population's health profile.

Swansea - Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Swansea - Caves Beach showed low cultural diversity, with 88.5% born in Australia, 93.4% citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 55.1%, compared to 52.5% regionally. Top ancestries were English (33.1%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (8.8%).

Welsh (1.0%) and Scottish (8.6%) were overrepresented, while Maltese (0.6%) was slightly higher than regional levels (0.3%).

Swansea - Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Swansea - Caves Beach has a median age of 49, which is higher than both the Rest of NSW figure at 43 and Australia's national median age of 38. In comparison to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Swansea - Caves Beach, making up 14.8% of the local population compared to the national figure of 9.4%. Conversely, those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.1%. Between January 2021 and present day, the proportion of people aged 15-24 has increased from 9.6% to 11.1%, while the 45-54 age group has decreased from 13.1% to 12.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Swansea - Caves Beach's age structure. The number of people aged 75-84 is expected to grow by 36%, increasing from 1,219 to 1,655 individuals. Meanwhile, the population in the 15-24 age range is projected to decrease.