Chain Valley Bay

Population growth drivers in Chain Valley Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Chain Valley Bay's estimated population is around 2,824. This reflects an increase of 51 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,773. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,783 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in Jun 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 504 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Chain Valley Bay has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing its SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Chain Valley Bay is expected to increase just below the median of national areas by 2041, expanding by 196 persons reflecting a 7.1% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Chain Valley Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Chain Valley Bay averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 12 homes were approved, with 2 more in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of 8.3 people moving to the area annually for each dwelling built over those five years, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $221,000, under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. In FY-26, $156,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, predominantly reflecting residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chain Valley Bay shows substantially reduced construction (80.0% below regional average per person), supporting stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This level is also lower than nationally, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This shows considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 90.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The estimated count of 1410 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Chain Valley Bay adding 200 residents by 2041 (from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Chain Valley Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Key projects include Crangan Bay Residential Estate, Charmhaven Master-Planned Housing Community, South East Growth Area Plan, and Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Chain Valley Bay has been broadly consistent with national averages

Chain Valley Bay has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area.

The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of September 2025, which is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. There was an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year. As of September 2025, 1,027 residents were employed with a participation rate of 34.0%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading industries for Chain Valley Bay residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are underrepresented at 3.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.9% while unemployment rose by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1%, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. State-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chain Valley Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30th, 2023, the suburb of Chain Valley Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $43,919 with the average level standing at $53,264. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 30th, 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,810 (median) and $57,983 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows household, family and personal incomes in Chain Valley Bay all fall between the 0th and 5th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows 39.0% of the population (1,101 individuals) fall within the $400 - 799 income range, unlike trends in surrounding regions where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Economic circumstances reflect widespread financial pressure, with 46.2% of households operating within modest weekly budgets below $800. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 3rd percentile nationally.

Chain Valley Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Chain Valley Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chain Valley Bay stood at 66.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.8% and rented ones at 9.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, below Sydney metro's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent was $370, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Chain Valley Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,647 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $370 compared to the national figure of $375.

Chain Valley Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.1% of all households, including 15.9% couples with children, 37.7% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Chain Valley Bay performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 8.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 5.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (35.4%).

A substantial 21.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.6% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Chain Valley Bay has 15 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 20 different routes that together offer 255 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 135 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 36 daily trips across all routes, which translates to about 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chain Valley Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Chain Valley Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 48% of the total population (~1,356 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 50.4% and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 16.9% of residents) and mental health issues (8.3%), while 49.2% claim to be free from medical ailments, lower than Greater Sydney's 61.5%.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 48.2% (1,361 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 22.3%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

Chain Valley Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chain Valley Bay had a cultural diversity below average, with 88.5% of its population being citizens, 84.4% born in Australia, and 97.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, accounting for 67.6% of the population, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English (34.7%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 1.2%, compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Welsh and Scottish representations were also higher at 0.7% and 8.8%, respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 7.3%.

Chain Valley Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Chain Valley Bay is 63 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and substantially exceeds the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chain Valley Bay has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (21.2%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.5%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national figure of 6.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of residents aged 85 and over has increased from 5.1% to 6.5%, while the 75-84 age group has risen from 19.8% to 21.2%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has declined from 22.3% to 20.5%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 7.8% to 6.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Chain Valley Bay's age structure. The number of residents aged 85 and over is projected to increase markedly by 99%, from 183 to 365. Demographic aging continues as all growth is expected to come from residents aged 65 and older. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.