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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Chain Valley Bay is $828k. House values have moved 3.0% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Chain Valley Bay has an estimated 2,784 residents. That puts 497 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to AreaSearch's evaluation of ABS broader regional figures alongside post-Census address validations, the suburb of Chain Valley Bay has an estimated resident population of roughly 2,784 as of Aug 2026. Compared to the 2021 Census tally of 2,773 people, this indicates an addition of 11 people (0.4%). The estimate of 2,784 follows analysis of new address validations since the Census date and the ABS ERP release from June 2025. This yields a population density of 497 persons per square kilometer, indicating low congestion and scope for future expansion. During the last ten years, the suburb of Chain Valley Bay maintained steady growth with a compound annual rate of 1.2%, exceeding the wider SA3 area.
Net overseas arrivals served as the primary growth driver, accounting for roughly 75.0% of recent population additions. Demographic projections compiled by AreaSearch draw on 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia SA2 figures (base year 2022) or, where unavailable, NSW State Government SA2 forecasts issued in 2022 (base year 2021), applying age-specific rates across all locations between 2032 and 2041. Looking forward, the suburb of Chain Valley Bay is projected to experience demographic growth slightly trailing the national statistical area median, expanding by 172 persons to 2041 under aggregated SA2 forecasts—an overall gain of 6.2% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
22 new dwellings have been approved in Chain Valley Bay over the past five years, an average of 4 a year. That is 3.8 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 31, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Examining ABS residential approval statistics aggregated by AreaSearch shows that Chain Valley Bay has registered an average of around 4 newly approved dwellings annually. This includes an estimated 22 residential approvals during the prior 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 31 so far in FY-25. The balance between local demand and supply has remained steady, averaging 1.1 additional residents annually for each completed home across the 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), with no new residents per home over the past 2 financial years indicating improved local availability.
The mean construction cost for new dwellings stands at $329,000, tracking beneath regional norms and pointing to competitive building pricing. In addition, commercial construction activity has been very quiet, recording $156,000 in approved commercial work during the current financial year. Per capita residential construction in Chain Valley Bay sits 11.0% below the Greater Sydney benchmark, though recent times have seen an uptick in activity, placing the locality in the 69th percentile across Australia. Detached houses comprise 91.0% of new residential development while 9.0% consists of attached homes, preserving low-density neighbourhoods oriented towards family living. Overall density remains modest, with approximately 174 people per dwelling approval. According to the latest quarterly forecasts from AreaSearch, residential numbers in Chain Valley Bay are projected to grow by 172 residents by 2041. If building volumes remain at current levels, residential additions might fall short of population gains, potentially driving up purchasing competition and supporting price levels.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Chain Valley Bay
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 10 current infrastructure and development projects close to Chain Valley Bay, worth an estimated $1.49 billion. 3 are already under construction and 5 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, sports & recreation and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local growth and performance are significantly guided by major planning initiatives and regional infrastructure works. AreaSearch has pinpointed 1 primary project with notable local relevance. Key nearby undertakings include the Toukley Desalination Water Treatment Plant, Crangan Bay Residential Estate, South East Growth Area Plan, and Charmhaven Master-Planned Housing Community.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Lake Munmorah Recreation Facility
A $3.81 million project to create a significant active precinct including an inclusive regional-sized playspace, a district-level skatepark and pump track, an upgraded access road and carpark, and supporting recreational infrastructure.
Lakes Ridge Residential Estate
A 283-lot residential subdivision on 27.2 hectares of land. The development has received consent and includes 3 hectares for conservation, restoration of a wetland, a local park, and walking/cycleways.
Darkinjung LALC & Landcom Housing Project
A partnership between Darkinjung LALC and Landcom to develop a site at Lake Munmorah, with early investigations showing potential for approximately 380 new dwellings, including affordable housing. The project includes a planning proposal to rezone approximately 75 hectares of land for residential development with an estimated yield of 600 lots, and around 88 hectares for environmental conservation. Rezoning was completed in late 2022.
The Rise at Wyee
A boutique residential land estate of 50 premium DA-approved home sites with lots ranging from 321sqm to 1039sqm at 18 Gosford Road, Wyee. Releases 1 and 2 are sold out with further lots now selling. Construction has commenced with land registration expected in late 2026. The project offers affordable land in a family-friendly growth corridor on the Central Coast experiencing significant investment.
Radcliffe Wyee
A large-scale residential subdivision offering approximately 730 new homes and land lots with open spaces, parklands, wildlife corridors, and recreational areas in a serene township setting midway between Gosford and Newcastle. Construction is ongoing, with civil works for stages continuing.
Wyee Local Centre Expansion
The Wyee Local Centre Expansion is a proposed $46.3 million commercial precinct by Wyee Market Place Holdings located at 106 Wyee Road and 1496 Hue Hue Road, Wyee. The development plans incorporate a modern supermarket, approximately 12 specialty retail tenancies, commercial suites, and over 250 car parking spaces. The development application (DA/875/2026) is undergoing assessment by Lake Macquarie City Council and the Hunter and Central Coast Regional Planning Panel.
Wyee District Park Upgrade
Lake Macquarie City Council is upgrading and expanding Wyee Community Hall Reserve into a district-level park. The project includes land acquired at 122-124 Wyee Road, a new neighbourhood playground, replacement skate park, landscaping, paths, parking and recreation improvements. During 2026 the draft master plan is on public exhibition, including consultation on retaining the existing tennis courts or replacing them with a multi-purpose court. Finalisation of the master plan is expected by the end of 2026, with staged construction subject to future funding.
Harvest Hill at Wyee
Harvest Hill at Wyee is an exclusive residential estate comprising 56 premium land lots ranging from 382sqm to 685sqm. Initiated by TOPA Property and Wyee Nominees, the 4.5-hectare development unlocks new housing supply close to services, shops, and transport in the thriving Wyee growth corridor.
1,044 residents of Chain Valley Bay are employed, from a labour force of 1,081. Unemployment sits at 3.4%, with participation at 43.1%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.6% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 2,385, about 86% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
AreaSearch aggregations show a diverse labour force across blue and white collar positions in Chain Valley Bay, supported by essential services, an unemployment rate of only 3.4%, and an estimated annual job growth rate of 3.4%. There were 1,044 employed local residents as of March 2026. The local jobless rate sits 0.7% below Greater Sydney's 4.1%, whereas workforce participation is markedly lower at 43.1% versus 68.9% across Greater Sydney. Census records showed 21.8% of the workforce operating from home, though this may reflect conditions during Covid-19 restrictions. Most working residents are employed across retail trade, construction, and health care & social assistance.
Local specialization is especially pronounced in construction, where the workforce concentration is 1.7 times the broader region. Conversely, professional & technical roles account for only 3.7% of workers locally, trailing the 11.5% seen across Greater Sydney. Comparing the Census local job count against the resident working population suggests that local employment openings remain constrained. An examination of ABS and SALM metrics indicates that local employment expanded by 3.4% over the 12-month period, while the labour pool enlarged by 3.8%, resulting in an unemployment uptick of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment expansion of 1.9%, labour force enlargement of 1.9%, and a slight reduction in joblessness. Broader industry projections from Jobs and Skills Australia (Mar-26) offer additional context for future workforce requirements across Chain Valley Bay over five and ten-year horizons. Across the nation, total employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though industry trajectories diverge. When weighted across the industry composition of Chain Valley Bay, projected employment increases equate to 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (note: this illustrative weighting model does not incorporate local demographic projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Chain Valley Bay is $866 a week (about $45,000 a year), with median personal income at $530 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $43,919 a year against an average of $53,264. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the suburb of Chain Valley Bay had a median income of $43,919 alongside an average of $53,264. These figures sit below countrywide benchmarks and trail Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Applying cumulative Wage Price Index gains of 10.32% since financial year 2023 brings estimated figures to roughly $48,451 (median) and $58,761 (average) as of March 2026. On a national scale, Census figures position local personal, family, and household earnings between the lowest and 5th percentiles.
The primary personal income bracket is $400 - 799, capturing 39.0% of local earners (1,085 people), differing from Greater Sydney where the $1,500 - 2,999 band leads at 30.9%. Lower income households are widespread, with 46.2% taking home under $800 weekly, highlighting financial pressures. Residual income following housing costs averages 85.6%, ranking in the 3rd percentile across Australia.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Chain Valley Bay had 1,239 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 90% detached houses and 0% apartments. 24% are owned with a mortgage, 9% rented and 67% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $370 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,647 a month. Rent absorbs 42.7% of household income here and mortgage repayments 43.9%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Census data shows that separate houses make up 90.4% of residential stock in Chain Valley Bay, while 9.5% consists of alternative structures such as apartments, semi-detached properties, and other housing, compared with 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings across Sydney metro. Full home ownership is prominent at 66.9%, comfortably exceeding the metropolitan rate, while 23.8% of properties are mortgaged and 9.3% are rented. Typical monthly mortgage repayments were $1,647 and median weekly rent was $370, both substantially lower than Sydney metro's figures of $2,427 and $470. These costs are also below Australia-wide medians of $1,863 for mortgages and $375 for weekly rents.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Chain Valley Bay counted 1,239 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.1 people each. 16% are couples with children, fewer than in 93% of areas nationally, against 38% couples without children. 35% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.1 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute 62.1% of households in the area, split into couples without children (37.7%), couples with children (15.9%), and single parent families (8.1%). Non-family living arrangements account for the other 37.9%, where lone person households represent 35.3% and group households make up 1.8%. The typical household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney median of 2.7.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
8.4% of adults in Chain Valley Bay hold a university qualification, including 5.8% with a bachelor degree and 1.4% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 35.4% hold a vocational qualification. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Attainment of higher education credentials represents an area for development, as 8.4% of residents hold university qualifications compared to 38.0% across Greater Sydney. Bachelor degrees constitute 5.8% of qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.4% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Technical and vocational training is widely held, with 45.0% of individuals aged 15+ possessing vocational certifications, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (35.4%). Formal study engages 21.7% of the local population. Broken down by sector, primary education accounts for 7.6%, secondary education comprises 6.3%, and tertiary education represents 2.4%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Chain Valley Bay reaches 15 stops on 20 routes, timetabled for about 270 services a week. The typical home sits about 140 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 1.0 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Chain Valley Bay contains 15 active public transport stops covering local bus services. Across 20 distinct routes, these stops accommodate 266 weekly passenger trips. Public transport access is very convenient, with a typical distance of 135 meters to the closest stop. Outward commuting is standard for the residential community, with private vehicles accounting for 95% of trips. Average motor vehicle ownership is 1.0 per dwelling, below regional figures. Additionally, 21.8% of employed residents worked remotely according to the 2021 Census, which coincided with pandemic restrictions. Bus services run at an average rate of 38 trips per day across all available routes, providing approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
49.2% of residents in Chain Valley Bay report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 88% of areas nationally. 9.7% need daily assistance with core activities, and 48.1% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
AreaSearch evaluations of chronic condition incidence and mortality rates point to considerable local health challenges across age groups in Chain Valley Bay. Private health insurance participation is low, held by approximately 48% of residents (~1,337 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and 55.7% across Australia. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent ailments locally, reported by 16.9 and 8.3% of the community respectively. About 49.2% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, well below the 74.6% recorded across Greater Sydney. Chronic health issues are elevated among working-age individuals.
Seniors aged 65 and over comprise 50.3% of residents (1,400 people), well above the 15.5% share in Greater Sydney, with older demographic health outcomes ranking similarly to the wider population nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Chain Valley Bay is largely Australian-born, at 84.4% of residents, with 2.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (34.7%) and Australian (29.1%). 3.9% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures in Chain Valley Bay track below broad metropolitan levels, with Australian citizens making up 88.5% of the population, 84.4% of residents born in Australia, and 97.9% speaking only English at home. Christianity represents the leading faith, identified by 67.6% of residents, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. Parental country of birth statistics indicate that English heritage is the largest ancestral group at 34.7% (compared to 19.0% regionally), followed by Australian ancestry at 29.1% (above the 17.8% regional mark), and Irish background at 9.6%. Distinct representation is also evident among Scottish (8.8% vs 4.8% regionally), Maltese (1.2% vs 1.0%), and Welsh (0.7% vs 0.4%) ancestries.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Chain Valley Bay is 63, older than 99% of areas nationally. 13.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Chain Valley Bay functions predominantly as a lifestyle and retirement enclave, as evidenced by its demographic structure. Updates to August 2026 show that older and retired residents (65+) account for 50.3% of the community, whereas this group makes up 15.5% across Greater Sydney. In contrast, adults aged 25 - 44 represent 13.0%, compared with 31.4% across the broader metropolis. As at August 2026, the estimated median age remains at 63, matching the 2021 Census and standing 26 years older than the Greater Sydney median of 37 at that time, and above Australia's Census median of 38.
The most significant shift since the Census has occurred among retiree and elderly cohorts, rising from 47.2% to an estimated 50.3%. Retiree and elderly cohorts are forecast to drive future growth, increasing by 314 (22%) to reach 1,714 by 2041, whereas numbers for young to middle aged adults as well as children and young adults are projected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Chain Valley Bay
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 5 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (2,773 at the 2021 Census → 2,784 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL10879). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.