Chain Valley Bay

Population growth drivers in Chain Valley Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Chain Valley Bay's population is estimated at around 2,724, a decrease of 49 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,773. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 2,722, based on their examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 486 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Chain Valley Bay has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year.

Considering these projections, Chain Valley Bay is expected to increase its population by just below the median of national areas, expanding by 151 persons to reach an estimated total of 2,875 by 2041, reflecting a 9.4% increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Chain Valley Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data indicates Chain Valley Bay averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals per year. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 12 homes were approved, with 1 more in FY-26.

This results in an average of 8.3 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these five years, suggesting demand significantly outpaces supply. New properties are constructed at an average value of $221,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing choices for buyers. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chain Valley Bay has 80.0% fewer constructions per person, indicating limited new supply and supporting stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This level is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Current building activity consists solely of standalone homes, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1128 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Future projections show Chain Valley Bay adding 255 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and potentially driving price increases.

Chain Valley Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. One major project identified by AreaSearch is expected to affect the region: Crangan Bay Residential Estate, Charmhaven Master-Planned Housing Community, South East Growth Area Plan, and Central Coast Desalination Plant are key projects, with those listed below being most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Chain Valley Bay demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Chain Valley Bay has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 3.1%.

Over the past year, employment grew by 2.1%. As of June 2025, 1,008 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is significantly lower at 34.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major industries for Chain Valley Bay residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 3.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.1% while labour force grew by 2.9%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Chain Valley Bay's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Chain Valley Bay's median taxpayer income was $43,919 and average income was $53,264 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national averages of $56,994 (median) and $80,856 (average). By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $49,457 and average income $59,981, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. Census data shows Chain Valley Bay's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 0th and 5th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 39.0% of residents earn $400 - $799 weekly, contrasting with surrounding regions where 30.9% earn $1,500 - $2,999 weekly. The concentration of 46.2% in sub-$800 weekly brackets suggests economic challenges for a significant portion of the community. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains, ranking at only the 3rd percentile nationally.

Chain Valley Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Chain Valley Bay's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 90.4% houses and 9.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Chain Valley Bay stood at 66.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.8% and rented ones at 9.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,647, below Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent was $370, compared to Sydney metro's $385. Nationally, Chain Valley Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Chain Valley Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.1% of all households, including 15.9% couples with children, 37.7% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 35.3% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Chain Valley Bay performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

The area's university qualification rate is 8.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 5.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (35.4%). A total of 21.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 7.6% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Chain Valley Bay shows that there are currently 15 operational transport stops. These stops offer a variety of bus services, with a total of 20 different routes operating weekly. The combined passenger trips from these routes amount to 254 per week.

The accessibility of transport is considered excellent, with residents typically residing just 135 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are approximately 36 trips per day across all routes, which translates to around 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Chain Valley Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Chain Valley Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 48% (~1,308 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 16.9%) and mental health issues (8.3%). Notably, 49.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 48.2% (1,312 people), compared to 22.3% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors align with the general population's health profile.

Chain Valley Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Chain Valley Bay had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.5% citizens, 84.4% born in Australia, and 97.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 67.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 56.2%. The top three ancestry groups were English (34.7%), Australian (29.1%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Maltese (1.2% vs regional 1.0%), Welsh (0.7% vs 0.5%), and Scottish (8.8% vs 7.3%) were overrepresented.

Chain Valley Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Chain Valley Bay is 63 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Chain Valley Bay has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (21.2%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (5.5%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national average of 6%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 85+ age group grew from 5.1% to 6.5%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 19.8% to 21.2%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort declined from 22.3% to 20.5%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 7.8% to 6.0%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Chain Valley Bay's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to more than double, increasing by 182 people (103%) from 177 to 360. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 98% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.