Gwandalan

Gwandalan lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Gwandalan is around 3,839. This reflects an increase of 54 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,785. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,763 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,337 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Gwandalan has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, for areas covered by this data. For any SA2 areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of national statistical areas is projected, with the suburb expected to expand by 687 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 22.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gwandalan according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Gwandalan averaged around 10 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years ending FY-25. This totals an estimated 53 homes. So far in FY-26, recorded approvals are 2.

The average population growth per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 was 6.5 people. This indicates demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $479,000, aligning with regional trends. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gwandalan records about 65% of the building activity per person.

Nationally, it places among the 16th percentile of areas assessed, suggesting limited buyer options while demand for established dwellings strengthens. This is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 83.0% detached dwellings and 17.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving Gwandalan's suburban character with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 991 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Looking ahead, the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate projects Gwandalan to grow by 855 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Gwandalan has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Crangan Bay Residential Estate, South East Growth Area Plan, Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036, and High Speed Rail - Newcastle to Sydney (Stage 1). The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Gwandalan exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Gwandalan's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, showing a 2.0% employment growth.

As of June 2025, 1,887 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is 55.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with a 2.0 times higher employment share than the regional level.

Professional & technical jobs are less prevalent at 4.5% compared to the regional 11.5%. The area's residential nature suggests limited local employment opportunities. Between Jun-24 and Jul-25, employment increased by 2.0%, labour force by 2.6%, raising unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 forecasts project national employment to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gwandalan's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.4% in five years and 13.4% in ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Gwandalan's median taxpayer income was $49,670 and average income was $60,356 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Greater Sydney having a median income of $56,994 and an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 until September 2025, estimated incomes for Gwandalan would be approximately $55,933 (median) and $67,967 (average). The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Gwandalan ranked modestly, between the 25th and 35th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 34.3% of residents earned within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to surrounding regions at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Gwandalan, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Gwandalan is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gwandalan's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 96.7% houses and 3.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 83.2% houses and 16.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gwandalan was 36.9%, with the rest either mortgaged (43.2%) or rented (19.9%), matching Sydney metro's figures. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gwandalan was $1,800, below Sydney metro's $1,900. Median weekly rent in Gwandalan was $385, equal to Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Gwandalan's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Gwandalan has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 30.7% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.4% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, aligning with Greater Sydney's average.

Gwandalan faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.5%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 47.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (38.1%). Educational participation is high at 26.3%, comprising primary education (9.8%), secondary education (7.0%), and tertiary education (2.6%).

Gwandalan Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 348 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 955). It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (9.1) compared to the regional average (13.6), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gwandalan has 16 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a total of 22 routes, offering 231 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 212 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 33 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Gwandalan is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Gwandalan, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 1951 people). The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.1% and 9.4% of residents respectively. However, 62.5% report having no medical ailments, compared to 61.5% in Greater Sydney. Gwandalan has 22.6% of residents aged 65 and over (867 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Gwandalan is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Gwandalan's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.7% of its population born in Australia, 93.2% being citizens, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Gwandalan, comprising 55.3% of people, compared to 56.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.7%), English (31.4%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Maltese (2.0%) and Serbian (0.4%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Gwandalan compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 0.1%, respectively. Additionally, Australian Aboriginal representation is slightly higher at 4.7%.

Gwandalan hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Gwandalan is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 8.8% of the population in Gwandalan, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 age group represents 10.9%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.8% to 8.8%, and the 15 to 24 age group has risen from 10.8% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 13.4% to 12.2%, and the 65 to 74 age group has fallen from 12.7% to 11.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Gwandalan, with the 65 to 74 age group projected to grow by 39% (172 people), reaching a total of 614 from 441. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 51% of total population growth, reflecting Gwandalan's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 0 to 4 age group is expected to show minimal growth of just 6% (13 people).