Swansea (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Swansea reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Swansea (NSW) statistical area's population is estimated at around 5,136 people. This reflects an increase of 92 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,044 persons. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 5,068 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and validation of additional 52 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,175 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Swansea (NSW) demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median growth is projected nationally for non-metropolitan areas, with the area expected to expand by 1,160 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 24.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Swansea when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Swansea averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 179 homes. As of FY26, 9 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction value of new homes is $698,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year has seen $5.6 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting Swansea's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Swansea records 72.0% more building activity per person. Recent construction comprises 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (68.0% at Census), suggesting persistent strong demand for family homes despite densification trends.

The location has approximately 247 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts suggest Swansea will gain 1,248 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Swansea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, 42-44 Lake Road Residential Development, Swansea Channel Dredging and Sand Transfer System, and Swansea Seawall Stabilisation. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Swansea shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Swansea has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate was 3.7% as of September 2025.

This is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Employment growth in Swansea over the past year was estimated at 3.2%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.2% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, while labour force increased by 4.1%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 14.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swansea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Swansea is $40,975 and the average is $55,764 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $44,605 (median) and $60,705 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Swansea fall between the 4th and 8th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 30.4% of residents earn between $400 and $799. In contrast, the metropolitan region has a higher proportion of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Swansea, with only 79.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Swansea displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Swansea, as per the latest Census evaluation, 68.2% of dwellings were houses while 31.7% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swansea stood at 44.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,908, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Swansea was $330, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Swansea's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Swansea features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Swansea faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.6% and certificates at 35.0%.

A substantial 22.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.7% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Swansea shows that there are 75 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 22 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 509 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of the transport system is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 114 meters from their nearest transport stop. On an average day, there are 72 trips made across all routes, which equates to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swansea is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Swansea faces notable health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 49% (~2,518 people) have private health cover, lower than the 54.4% across Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.2%) and mental health issues (9.5%).

Conversely, 54.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. Swansea has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 32.8% (1,684 people), compared to 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors mirror the general population's profile.

The latest Census data sees Swansea placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Swansea, as per the data, had a population where 90.4% were born in Australia, 92.4% held citizenship, and 97.0% spoke English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.5%, compared to 52.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (30.0%), and Scottish (8.8%).

Notably, Welsh ancestry was higher in Swansea at 0.9% than regionally at 0.8%. Similarly, Australian Aboriginal ancestry was 4.6% compared to the regional average of 3.4%, and Maltese ancestry was 0.5% versus 0.3%.

Swansea ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Swansea's median age is 53, which is considerably higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Swansea has a higher concentration of residents aged 75-84 at 12.0%, but fewer residents aged 5-14 at 8.1%. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.5% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.3% to 8.1%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 13.4% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Swansea's age structure. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 41%, adding 252 people and reaching a total of 869 from the current 616. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 51% of the projected growth. In contrast, the 15 to 24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 2%, adding only 12 people.