Swansea (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Swansea reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the suburb of Swansea (NSW) is around 5,236. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 5,044 people, marking a growth of 192 individuals or approximately 3.8%. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,176 in June 2024, which was based on ABS ERP data and validated with an additional 52 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,198 persons per square kilometer, higher than national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Swansea's population growth since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area at 2.9%, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate an above median population growth for non-metropolitan areas nationally, with the suburb expected to expand by 1,158 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 21.9% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Swansea when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Swansea averaged approximately 38 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 192 homes. As of FY-26, nine approvals have been recorded. The average population increase for each dwelling built in the area between FY-21 and FY-25 was 1.8 people per year, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. Developers focus on premium market segments, with new homes averaging an expected construction cost of $698,000.

In FY-26, $1.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Swansea has 84.0% more building activity per person. Recent construction comprises 91.0% standalone homes and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space. Developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (68.0% at Census), suggesting strong demand for family homes despite densification trends.

The location has approximately 212 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts estimate Swansea will gain 1,146 residents by 2041, with current development well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Swansea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. Key initiatives include the Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, 42-44 Lake Road Residential Development, Swansea Channel Dredging and Sand Transfer System, and Swansea Seawall Stabilisation. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Swansea shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Swansea has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services. The unemployment rate is 3.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of June 2025, 2,254 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 44.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.2% versus the regional average of 5.3%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, labour force by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data). In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Swansea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Swansea's median taxpayer income was $40,975 and average income was $55,764 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. By September 2025, estimated median income in Swansea would be approximately $46,142 and average income would be around $62,796, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. In the 2021 Census, incomes in Swansea fell between the 4th and 8th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile showed that 30.4% of residents (1,591 people) earned between $400 - $799, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket led at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Swansea, with only 79.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Swansea displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Swansea's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 68.2% houses and 31.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swansea was at 44.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented dwellings at 29.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,908, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $330, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Swansea's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Swansea features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Swansea faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.9%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (35.0%). Currently, 22.0% of the population is engaged in formal education, comprising 7.7% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

Swansea Public School and St Patrick's Primary School serve a total of 345 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 992) indicating balanced educational opportunities. Both schools cater exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has limited local school capacity, at 6.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.6, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Swansea shows that there are currently 66 active transport stops operating within the city. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 22 individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 504 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 114 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 72 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swansea is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Swansea faces significant health challenges affecting various age groups. Approximately 49% (~2567 people) have private health cover, compared to 54.2% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. Common conditions include arthritis (14.2%) and mental health issues (9.5%), with 54.9% reporting no medical ailments, versus 62.6% in Rest of NSW.

The area has 32.9% (1722 people) aged 65 and over, higher than the 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes align with general population trends.

The latest Census data sees Swansea placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Swansea's cultural diversity was below average, with 90.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 97.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Swansea, comprising 55.5% of people, compared to 52.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (30.0%), and Scottish (8.8%).

Notably, Welsh (0.9%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.8%, as were Australian Aboriginal (4.6% vs 3.4%) and Maltese (0.5% vs 0.3%).

Swansea ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Swansea has a median age of 53, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Swansea has a higher concentration of residents aged 75-84 at 12.1%, but fewer residents aged 5-14 at 8.1%. This 75-84 concentration is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.7% to 10.5% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.3% to 8.1%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 13.4% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Swansea's age structure. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 37%, reaching 869 people from the current 633. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 53% of projected growth. In contrast, the 15 to 24 cohort shows minimal growth, increasing by just 0 person.