Swansea (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Swansea reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of the suburb of Swansea (NSW) is estimated at around 4986 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease of 58 people from the 2021 Census figure of 5044 people, a change inferred from an estimated resident population of 4980 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and additional validation of 54 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1141 persons per square kilometer, relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 64% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, the suburb is expected to expand by 1073 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 21.4% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Swansea according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Swansea indicates an average of approximately 36 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 180 homes. As of FY26, 12 approvals have been recorded. The population growth rate has averaged zero people per year for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, suggesting that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average value of new homes being constructed is $698,000, indicating a focus on the premium market.

Commercial development approvals in Swansea have reached $5.6 million this financial year. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Swansea records 73.0% more building activity per person. Recent construction comprises 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban identity. The dwelling approvals per capita ratio is approximately 235 people per dwelling, indicating a low density market.

Population forecasts suggest Swansea will gain around 1,067 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth. However, increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Swansea has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure. These key projects include Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, 42-44 Lake Road Residential Development, Swansea Channel Dredging and Sand Transfer System, and Swansea Seawall Stabilisation. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Swansea recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Swansea has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, and the unemployment rate is 4.3% according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2071 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.4% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Swansea lags at 48.9%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses show that 19.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a particularly high employment share at 1.6 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.2% compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.2%, but employment declined by 1.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. This compares to Regional NSW where employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Swansea's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Swansea is $40,975, and the average is $55,764, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Regional NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. As of March 2026, estimated incomes are approximately $45,204 (median) and $61,519 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Swansea fall between the 4th and 8th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The $400 - 799 income bracket dominates with 30.4% of residents (1,515 people), contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Swansea, with only 79.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Swansea displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Swansea, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 68.2% houses and 31.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Regional NSW's dwelling structure of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Swansea stood at 44.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (25.9%) or rented (29.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Swansea was $1,908, exceeding Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Swansea was recorded at $330, aligning with the Regional NSW figure of $330. Nationally, Swansea's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Swansea features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 29.2% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Swansea faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (35.0%). A total of 22.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, comprising 7.7% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

A substantial 22.0% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.7% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Swansea has 75 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 22 different routes that together facilitate 509 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living 114 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the primarily residential nature of the area. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 19.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 72 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Swansea is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Swansea faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,444 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (14.2%) and mental health issues (9.5%). However, 54.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 33.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,685 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings generally aligned with the overall population.

The latest Census data sees Swansea placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Swansea's population showed low cultural diversity, with 90.4% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 97.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 55.5%, slightly lower than Regional NSW's 55.9%. Top ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (30.0%), and Scottish (8.8%).

Notable differences included Welsh at 0.9% in Swansea versus 0.5% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 4.6% matching regional levels, and Maltese at 0.5% compared to 0.4% regionally.

Swansea ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Swansea's median age is 53, which is significantly higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Regional NSW, Swansea has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (12.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.1%). This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is well above the national figure of 6.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 8.7% to 10.9%, while the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 9.3% to 8.1%. Additionally, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 13.4% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Swansea's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 36%, adding 229 people and reaching a total of 868 from the current figure of 638. This growth is primarily driven by an aging population, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 52% of the projected growth. In contrast, the 15 to 24 age group is projected to show minimal growth of just 1%, adding only 7 people.