Blacksmiths

Blacksmiths is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Blacksmiths is around 1,877 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease of 4 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,881 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,876 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 962 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth for Australia's regional areas, with the suburb of Blacksmiths expected to grow by 24 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 1.2% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blacksmiths according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Blacksmiths has seen approximately 9 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 47 homes. As of FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 people per year moved to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes over this period was $508,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalling $268,000 have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Blacksmiths has seen slightly more development, with 21.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This balance supports buyer choice while maintaining current property values. The new building activity shows 73.0% detached dwellings and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 89.0% houses, possibly due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Blacksmiths has a population density of around 211 people per approval, reflecting its low-density character. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 23 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Blacksmiths has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified two projects that may impact the area's performance. These include Swansea Channel Dredging and Sand Transfer System, Pelican Foreshore Stabilisation Project, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, and Swansea Foreshore Enhancement Project.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Blacksmiths recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Blacksmiths has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.2%. Over the past year, employment has been relatively stable.

As of December 2025909 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.9% above Regional NSW's rate. Workforce participation stands at 57.5%, below Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census data, 20.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.2%, while employment decreased by 0.1%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 1.2%, labour force contract by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blacksmiths' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Blacksmiths is slightly lower than average nationally. The median income is $49,454 and the average is $65,931. In contrast, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Blacksmiths are approximately $54,558 (median) and $72,735 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Blacksmiths all fall between the 16th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that the largest segment comprises 27.2% earning $400 - $799 weekly (510 residents), differing from Regional NSW where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Blacksmiths, with only 84.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 17th percentile.

Blacksmiths is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Blacksmiths' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.6% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blacksmiths stood at 50.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.6% and rented ones at 22.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $390, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Blacksmiths' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Blacksmiths has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.6 percent of all households, including 23.3 percent couples with children, 28.3 percent couples without children, and 14.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.4 percent, with lone person households at 29.8 percent and group households comprising 3.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Blacksmiths fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 14.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (31.7%).

A substantial 23.7% of the population is currently pursuing formal education, including 8.4% in secondary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 28 active transport stops operating within Blacksmiths. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 17 individual routes that provide 370 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 131 meters from the nearest transport stop. As primarily residential, most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Blacksmiths is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's health assessment for Blacksmiths shows significant health issues.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older residents. Private health cover is higher than average at 53% (~994 people). The most common conditions are arthritis (12.3%) and mental health issues (8.9%), while 59.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable chronic condition rates. Blacksmiths has a higher proportion of seniors (31.2%, 585 people) than Regional NSW (23.4%). Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Blacksmiths placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Blacksmiths had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 92.1% of its population being citizens, 93.7% born in Australia, and 97.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Blacksmiths, making up 51.6% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (32.0%), and Scottish (8.6%).

Notably, Welsh (1.1%) was overrepresented compared to regional levels (0.5%), as were Australian Aboriginal (5.2%) and Samoan (0.2%).

Blacksmiths ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Blacksmiths is 50, which is higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and well above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 15.9% of Blacksmiths' population, exceeding Regional NSW's percentage and significantly higher than the national average of 9.4%. After the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 9.1% to 11.0%, while the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 13.6% to 12.0% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.3% to 14.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Blacksmiths' age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 37 people (46%), reaching a total of 118. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 60% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Conversely, declines in population are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.