Rathmines

An assessment of population growth drivers in Rathmines reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Rathmines statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 2,169 people. This reflects a growth of 93 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,076 people. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 2,146 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 534 persons per square kilometer. Rathmines' 4.5% growth since census is within 1.2 percentage points of the non-metro area's 5.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the area is projected to grow by 8 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a decrease of 3.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Rathmines according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Rathmines shows approximately 12 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 63 homes. In FY-26 so far, 9 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 0.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed has been observed.

This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth to exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value for new properties in Rathmines is $679,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $7.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential.

When measured against Rest of NSW and national averages, Rathmines shows approximately 68% of construction activity per person and places among the 61st percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 91.0% detached dwellings and 9.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 245 people per dwelling approval, Rathmines shows characteristics of a low density area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Rathmines may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Rathmines has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Three projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Wangi Shores Retirement Village Stage 3B Block K, Rathmines Park Transformation, a three-storey apartment building at 1 Kent Place, Wangi Wangi containing 13 residences, and the mixed-use development at 114-120 Cary Street.

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Employment performance in Rathmines has been broadly consistent with national averages

Rathmines has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2%.

As of September 2025, 1,021 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.9% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 0.9%, compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9% compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Rathmines' employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for FY2023 shows Rathmines had a median taxpayer income of $47,028 and an average income of $65,425. These figures are slightly below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively across Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY2023, estimated median and average incomes for Rathmines as of September 2025 are approximately $51,195 and $71,222 respectively. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Rathmines rank modestly, between the 34th and 36th percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 30.0% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (650 residents), similar to regional levels at 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.6% of income remains for other expenses, and Rathmines' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Rathmines is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Rathmines, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 92.9% houses and 7.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Rathmines was at 45.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (41.0%) or rented (13.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the time of the Census, was $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW's figures were $1,900 for mortgage repayments and $380 for rents. Nationally, Rathmines's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at the time of the Census.

Rathmines features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.0% of all households, including 29.4% couples with children, 34.2% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.0%, with lone person households at 18.5% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Rathmines aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 33.8%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.0% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Rathmines has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 32 different routes that together facilitate 223 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 139 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 31 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Rathmines is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Rathmines faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 53%, or about 1,145 people, which is higher than the average for SA2 areas. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.2% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 10.1%). However, 58.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 60.3% in the Rest of NSW. Rathmines has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 26.6% (576 people), compared to 21.9% in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Rathmines are better than those for the general population.

Rathmines is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Rathmines, as per the data, had a lower cultural diversity with 88.2% of its population born in Australia and 92.8% being citizens who predominantly spoke English at home, 95.5%. Christianity was the primary religion in Rathmines at 55.4%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 54.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English at 32.8%, Australian at 30.0%, and Scottish at 9.9%.

Notably, Welsh (1.3% vs regional 0.7%), Lebanese (0.4% vs regional 0.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (2.9% vs regional 4.5%) groups had differing representations compared to the broader region.

Rathmines hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Rathmines's median age is 47 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and substantially exceeds the national average of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up a prominent 15.9%, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 8.8%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the population of those aged 75 to 84 has grown from 6.8% to 8.2%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.9% to 13.4%. By 2041, Rathmines is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. Notably, the 25-34 group will grow by 18 people, reaching 226 from an initial 190. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 5-14 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.