Fennell Bay

Population growth drivers in Fennell Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Fennell Bay's population is estimated at around 1,985 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 205 people (11.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,780 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,942, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 729 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 11.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (5.9%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to expand by 523 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 19.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Fennell Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Fennell Bay has had approximately 33 dwelling approvals per year. Between Financial Year 21 and Financial Year 25, around 169 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved so far in Financial Year 26. This results in an average of 1.1 people moving to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $472,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties. In Financial Year 26, there have been $1.5 million in commercial development approvals recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Fennell Bay has seen 118.0% more development activity per person. This high level of activity is significantly above the national average, demonstrating strong developer interest in the area. New developments consist of 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density nature with a preference for detached housing.

Fennell Bay has approximately 90 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 393 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Fennell Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to affect the area. Key projects include 114-120 Cary Street Mixed Use Development, Speers Point Transport Improvements, Rathmines Park Transformation, and Costco Lake Macquarie Warehouse, with the following list providing details on those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Fennell Bay recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Fennell Bay has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% in September 2025, having grown by an estimated 2.8% over the preceding year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of this date, 880 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Fennell Bay was lower at 57.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Based on Census responses, 18.4% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a notable specialization in construction (1.3 times the regional level). Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with only 0.7% employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, while labour force grew by 3.7%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5%, labour force decline by 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Fennell Bay's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Fennell Bay had a median taxpayer income of $50,603 and an average income of $65,885. These figures are slightly lower than national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median income in Fennell Bay as of September 2025 is approximately $55,086, with average income at around $71,722. Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes rank modestly in Fennell Bay, between the 26th and 28th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 31.3% of residents (621 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Fennell Bay, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Fennell Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fennell Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fennell Bay was at 41.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented dwellings at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,734, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Fennell Bay was $368, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Fennell Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Fennell Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.8% of all households, including 24.4% couples with children, 31.6% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.2%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the Rest of NSW average.

Fennell Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.5%). A total of 24.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 7.6% in secondary, 7.4% in primary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.9% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.6% in secondary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fennell Bay has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 45 different routes that together facilitate 558 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 181 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outwards using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transport at 96%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in Fennell Bay. According to the 2021 Census, 18.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 79 trips per day, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fennell Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Fennell Bay faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 53% of the total population (~1,051 people). The most common conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (10.9%). Conversely, 59.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 20.8% of residents aged 65 and over (412 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings.

Fennell Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fennell Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.2% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 52.3% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation was Judaism, which made up 0.2% compared to 0.1% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.7%), Australian (30.7%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Australian Aboriginal (5.6%) populations were overrepresented in Fennell Bay compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 4.6%, respectively. Samoan representation was also higher at 0.3%.

Fennell Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fennell Bay's median age was 44 years as of 2021, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Fennell Bay had a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (13.5%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (6.4%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, Fennell Bay's median age decreased from 45 to 44 years. The percentage of residents aged 35-44 increased from 10.9% to 13.7%, while those aged 0-4 rose from 4.9% to 6.4%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 14.0% to 11.7%, and those aged 75-84 fell from 8.0% to 6.4%. By 2041, Fennell Bay's age composition is projected to shift notably. The number of residents aged 35-44 is expected to increase by 113 people (42%), from 271 to 385. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 65-74 is projected to decrease.