Fennell Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Fennell Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Fennell Bay's population is estimated at around 50,588 people. This reflects an increase of 576 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 50,012. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 1,946 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional nine validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 18,598 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth during recent periods, with overseas and interstate migration playing minimal roles.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 2,380 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Fennell Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Fennell Bay had approximately 87 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25, around 439 homes were approved, with 16 more in FY26 so far. The population decline suggests new supply has kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

Average dwelling value is $1,217,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. Commercial approvals this year totalled $24.6 million, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney and nationally, Fennell Bay's building activity is significantly lower (64.0% below the regional average per person), suggesting possible development constraints. New developments consist of 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban character with a focus on family homes. This represents a change from the current housing mix, reflecting reduced development sites and shifting lifestyle demands. With around 1058 people per dwelling approval, Fennell Bay exhibits a highly mature market.

Stable or declining population forecasts may reduce housing pressure, favouring buyers.

Fennell Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No changes can significantly affect an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include 114-120 Cary Street Mixed Use Development, Speers Point Transport Improvements, Rathmines Park Transformation, and Costco Lake Macquarie Warehouse. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Fennell Bay demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Fennell Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5%.

As of June 2025, 15,532 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 4.6%, 0.4% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Fennell Bay was 132.0%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 4.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, finance & insurance has lower representation at 4.2% compared to the regional average of 7.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, and labour force grew by 3.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. This compares with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6% and labour force expansion of 2.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fennell Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Fennell Bay's median income among taxpayers was $108,082 and average income stood at $138,320 in the financial year 2022, according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $121,711 and average income $155,762, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes ranked at the 170th percentile ($4,460 weekly), while personal income ranked lower at the 138th percentile. Income distribution showed that 67.8% of residents (34,298 people) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupied this bracket. The income distribution demonstrated clear polarization, with 31.8% in lower brackets (<$800/week) and 66.4% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). After housing costs, residents retained 171.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 14th decile.

Fennell Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fennell Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 197.4% houses and 2.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasted with Sydney metro's 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fennell Bay stood at 75.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 100.8% and rented ones at 23.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $4,616, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Fennell Bay was $860, compared to Sydney metro's $380. Nationally, Fennell Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Fennell Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 164.2% of all households, including 84.4% couples with children, 60.4% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining -64.2%, with lone person households at 32.6% and group households making up 3.4% of the total. The median household size is 5.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Fennell Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Fennell Bay is notably high, with 38.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications compared to the broader SA3 area's 18.1% and the SA4 region's 26.1%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 89.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (23.4%) and certificates (65.6%). Educational participation is high, with 55.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 20.0% in primary, 16.0% in secondary, and 6.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Fennell Bay Public School serves the area, enrolling 172 students as of a recent date. The school's ICSEA score is 893, indicating varied educational conditions. It caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Fennell Bay functions as an education hub, offering 19.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 12.3, and attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fennell Bay has 712 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 172 different routes that together facilitate 1,878 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is limited, with residents on average located 666 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 268 trips across all routes, translating to approximately two trips per week for each individual stop.

Fennell Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Fennell Bay shows excellent health outcomes with very low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Its private health cover rate stands at approximately 109%, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 51.5% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (15.8%) and asthma (14.8%).

Notably, 140.8% of residents claim to be completely free of medical ailments, compared to 60.3% in Greater Sydney. Fennell Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 37.7% (19,091 people) than Greater Sydney's 21.9%. Senior health outcomes are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Fennell Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Fennell Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 175.0% of its population born in Australia, 186.0% being citizens, and 189.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Fennell Bay, comprising 120.8% of people, compared to 54.0% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (61.0%, regional average: 31.2%), English (58.8%, regional average: 32.1%), and Irish (15.8%, regional average: 7.3%).

Notably, Maltese was overrepresented at 9.6% in Fennell Bay compared to the regional average of 0.4%, Dutch at 3.0% compared to 1.1%, and Lebanese at 0.8% compared to 0.1%.

Fennell Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Fennell Bay's median age is 82 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's 37 years and the national average of 38 years. The population distribution by age aligns with regional norms for Greater Sydney, with a notable concentration in the 55-64 age group at 19.2%, well above the national average of 11.2%. Post the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 9.6% to 13.1%, and the 65 to 74 cohort rose from 20.2% to 21.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group decreased from 30.0% to 26.9%, and the 25 to 34 age group dropped from 22.2% to 20.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Fennell Bay, with the 85+ age group projected to grow by -22% (-370 people), reaching 1,309 from 1,679. Both the 85+ and 75 to 84 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers in the future.