Fennell Bay

Population growth drivers in Fennell Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Fennell Bay statistical area (Lv2) is around 1,985 people. This figure reflects an increase of 205 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,780 people in the area. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,942 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 729 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Fennell Bay (SA2) experienced an 11.5% growth rate since the 2021 census, exceeding the non-metro area's 5.7% growth and marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for this area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, a significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with the Fennell Bay (SA2) expected to expand by 529 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 20.1% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Fennell Bay when compared nationally

Fennell Bay has seen approximately 33 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval data. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 169 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY-26 to date. This results in an average of about 1.1 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

The average expected construction cost for new dwellings is approximately $472,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $1.5 million, suggesting a primarily residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Fennell Bay has 118.0% more development activity per person. New developments consist of 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density character. The population density is approximately 90 people per dwelling approval.

AreaSearch projects Fennell Bay to gain 398 residents by 2041, with current development rates expected to comfortably meet demand.

Fennell Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No factor impacts a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include 114-120 Cary Street Mixed Use Development, Speers Point Transport Improvements, Rathmines Park Transformation, and Costco Lake Macquarie Warehouse. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Fennell Bay recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Fennell Bay's skilled workforce is notable, particularly in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8% over the past year.

There are 885 residents employed currently, with an unemployment rate at 1.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 53.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, at 0.7% employment compared to the regional 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, labour force by 3.9%, raising unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force by 0.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-wide in NSW, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment rate was 4.3%. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fennell Bay's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 15, 2023, Fennell Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $50,603 and an average income of $65,885. This is lower than the national average of $52,390 and Rest of NSW's $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, current estimates for Fennell Bay are approximately $55,086 (median) and $71,722 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows household incomes rank at the 26th percentile, family incomes at the 27th percentile, and personal incomes at the 28th percentile in Fennell Bay. Income distribution reveals that 31.3% of residents earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually (621 people), similar to regional levels where 29.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Fennell Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fennell Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fennell Bay was 41.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.8% and rented dwellings at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,734, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent figure in Fennell Bay was $368, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $380. Nationally, Fennell Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,734 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $368 than the national figure of $375.

Fennell Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.8% of all households, including 24.4% couples with children, 31.6% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.2%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Fennell Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.3% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 32.5%. A total of 24.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 7.6% in secondary, 7.4% in primary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.9% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.6% in secondary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 15 active stops operating within Fennell Bay, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 45 routes, offering a total of 558 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 181 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 79 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fennell Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Fennell Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

The private health cover rate stands at approximately 53%, higher than the average SA2 area but still lower than the total population of around 1,051 people. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 11.4% and 10.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 60.3% across Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8%, with approximately 412 people falling into this age category, compared to the 21.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors in Fennell Bay generally align with those of the broader population.

Fennell Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fennell Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.2% of its population being citizens and 89.3% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 95.3% of the population. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 52.3%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups were English (31.7%), Australian (30.7%), and Scottish (8.7%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Australian Aboriginal (5.6%) were overrepresented in Fennell Bay compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 4.5%, respectively. Samoan representation was equal at 0.3%.

Fennell Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fennell Bay's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Fennell Bay has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (13.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.3%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, there was a rejuvenation in Fennell Bay's population as the median age fell from 45 to 44 years. The 35-44 age group increased from 10.9% to 13.3%, while the 0-4 cohort rose from 4.9% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort decreased from 14.0% to 12.2%, and the 75-84 group dropped from 8.0% to 6.4%. By 2041, Fennell Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to increase by 122 people (47%) from 264 to 387. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.