Fennell Bay

Population growth drivers in Fennell Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Fennell Bay is around 1,985. This figure reflects an increase of 205 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,780. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,942 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 729 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 11.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (5.9%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas, including Fennell Bay, which is expected to expand by 584 persons, reflecting a gain of 27.2% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Fennell Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Fennell Bay had approximately 33 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 169 homes were approved, with 3 more in FY-26 so far. On average, about 1.1 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years.

This suggests a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new dwellings was around $472,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, $1.5 million in commercial development approvals were recorded, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Fennell Bay had 113.0% more development activity per person as of recent periods. This high level of activity is significantly above the national average, demonstrating strong developer interest.

New developments consisted of 84.0% detached dwellings and 16.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Fennell Bay's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The area had approximately 90 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Fennell Bay is projected to grow by 541 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Fennell Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes are currently planned for this area by AreaSearch. Four major projects have been identified: 114-120 Cary Street Mixed Use Development, Speers Point Transport Improvements, Rathmines Park Transformation, and Costco Lake Macquarie Warehouse.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Fennell Bay faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Fennell Bay has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being particularly prominent. Its unemployment rate was 5.8% as of December 2025, showing relative employment stability over the past year based on AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025868 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.8% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Fennell Bay was somewhat lower at 56.8%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, a moderate 18.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade sectors. The area has a strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with only 0.7% employment compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Fennell Bay's labour force increased by 1.9%, while employment decreased by 0.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Fennell Bay. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Fennell Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Fennell Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $50,603. The average income stood at $65,885 in this suburb. These figures are slightly lower than national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 for Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,086 (median) and $71,722 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes all rank modestly in Fennell Bay, between the 26th and 28th percentiles. In terms of income distribution, the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 31.3% of residents (621 people), similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Fennell Bay, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 26th percentile.

Fennell Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Fennell Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 88.1% houses and 11.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fennell Bay was at 41.3%, similar to Regional NSW, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (34.8%) or rented (24.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,734, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $368, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Fennell Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Fennell Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.8% of all households, consisting of 24.4% couples with children, 31.6% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.2%, with lone person households at 27.2% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Fennell Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.5%). A total of 24.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 7.6% in secondary, 7.4% in primary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.9% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.6% in secondary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fennell Bay has 15 active public transport stops offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 45 routes, facilitating 558 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents located an average of 181 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (96%). On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 18.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 79 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fennell Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Fennell Bay faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment.

The mortality rate and prevalence of chronic conditions are notable across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 53% (~1,051 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (10.9%). However, 59.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents have elevated chronic condition rates. Fennell Bay has 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (424 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

Fennell Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fennell Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.2% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 52.3% of Fennell Bay's population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Fennell Bay at 0.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (31.7%), Australian (30.7%), and Scottish (8.7%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Welsh at 0.8% (vs regional 0.5%), Australian Aboriginal at 5.6% (vs regional 4.6%), and Samoan at 0.3% (vs regional 0.1%).

Fennell Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fennell Bay's median age was 44 years in the latest data, comparable to Regional NSW's 43 and higher than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Fennell Bay had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (13.1%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.2%). Between the 2016 and 2021 Census periods, Fennell Bay's median age decreased from 45 to 44 years, indicating a rejuvenation of its population. During this period, the proportion of residents aged 35-44 increased from 10.9% to 13.5%, and those aged 0-4 grew from 4.9% to 6.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 14.0% to 12.0%, and those aged 85 and above dropped from 2.6% to 1.2%. By 2041, Fennell Bay's age composition is projected to shift notably. The 35-44 age group is expected to increase significantly by 133 people (50%), growing from 267 to 401 residents. The 65-74 age group is projected to grow more modestly, adding only 13 residents over the same period.