Warners Bay - Boolaroo
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay - Boolaroo are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's population is approximately 15,467 as of November 2025. This figure represents a growth of 773 people, an increase of 5.3% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 14,694. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,311 in June 2024 and the addition of 349 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 5.3% since the 2021 census exceeds that of its SA3 area (2.9%) and non-metro areas, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 61.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, above median population growth is projected for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. Warners Bay - Boolaroo is expected to grow by 2,197 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, recording a total gain of 12.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay - Boolaroo among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has seen approximately 116 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years, with a total of 584 homes approved between FY21 and FY25. As of FY26, 59 new homes have been approved so far. On average, about 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home approved during these five financial years, indicating balanced supply and demand conditions.

The average construction value of new homes is $339,000. This financial year has seen $93.9 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 92.0% more new home approvals per capita, offering greater housing choice for buyers. Recent construction consists of 73.0% detached dwellings and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's suburban character while attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 126 people per dwelling approval, Warners Bay - Boolaroo exhibits low-density characteristics. Population forecasts project an increase of 1,998 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Speers Point Transport Improvements, Edgeworth 112-lot Subdivision, McCloy Group Brush Creek Estate, and Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warners Bay - Boolaroo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 2.2%, lower than the national average.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 8107 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is 59.9%, slightly higher than the regional average of 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

The area specialises in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Local employment opportunities exist but many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force by 2.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1% while unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warners Bay - Boolaroo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 indicates that median income in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is $54,442 and average income stands at $72,182. This compares to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $61,307 and average income around $81,284 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 data, household, family and personal incomes in Warners Bay - Boolaroo rank modestly between the 44th and 50th percentiles. Income brackets show that 29.3% of individuals (4,531 people) earn within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 84.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 76.0% houses and 24.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warners Bay - Boolaroo was at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.1% and rented ones at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,090, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $410, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.5% of all households, including 28.1% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households making up 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 24.8% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 27.1%. Currently, 26.5% of residents are enrolled in formal education, including 8.9% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 4.3% in tertiary education.

The area has a network of 6 schools educating approximately 2,659 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1032). There are 5 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 142 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 69 individual routes that facilitate 1,816 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 174 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 259 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warners Bay - Boolaroo faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~8,553 people) have private health cover, a high rate compared to other areas. The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (10.4%) and mental health concerns (10.0%). However, 62.6% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of NSW figure. The area has 3,619 people aged 65 and over, comprising 23.4%, which is higher than the 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Seniors' health outcomes present challenges largely mirroring those of the general population.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay-Boolaroo had a lower cultural diversity, with 87.7% born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 55.0%, compared to 52.5% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Polish (0.9%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Macedonian representation was equal at 0.4%.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warners Bay- Boolaroo has a median age of 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 years and considerably older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Warners Bay- Boolaroo at 12.7%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.3%. Between 2021 and the present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.8% to 8.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.5%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 13.7% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Warners Bay- Boolaroo's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow notably, increasing by 510 people (32%) from 1,588 to 2,099. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.