Warners Bay - Boolaroo
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay - Boolaroo are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's population is approximately 15,418 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 724 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,694. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,322 in June 2024 and an additional 324 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,229 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warners Bay - Boolaroo's growth rate of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA3 area (2.8%) and the non-metro area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 61.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. Warners Bay - Boolaroo is projected to grow by 2,197 persons to 2041, recording a total gain of 13.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay - Boolaroo among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has seen approximately 116 new homes approved annually. Between the financial years FY21 and FY25584 homes were approved, with an additional 50 approved in FY26 to date. Over these five years, an average of 1.9 new residents arrived per new home.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes was $608,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting focus on quality developments. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $93.9 million, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 92.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers.

Recent construction consists of 73.0% detached dwellings and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature while attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 126 people per dwelling approval, it shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Warners Bay - Boolaroo will gain 2,047 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Speers Point Transport Improvements, Edgeworth 112-lot Subdivision, McCloy Group Brush Creek Estate, and Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program. The following list details projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Warners Bay - Boolaroo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 8107 residents were in work. The unemployment rate was 1.5% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, with workforce participation at 59.9% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Health care & social assistance is particularly strong, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, at only 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force increased by 2.6%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1% while labour force expanded by 0.3%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Warners Bay - Boolaroo. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warners Bay - Boolaroo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows income in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is well above average nationally. The median income is $54,442 and the average income stands at $72,182. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $61,307 (median) and $81,284 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warners Bay - Boolaroo, between the 44th and 50th percentiles. Income brackets indicate 29.3% of the population (4,517 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 46th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Warners Bay - Boolaroo, as per the latest Census, 76.0% of dwellings were houses while 24.0% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warners Bay - Boolaroo stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.1% and rented ones at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,090, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $410, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's median mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,090 than the Australian average of $1,863, while median rents exceeded the national figure of $375 by $35.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.5% of all households, including 28.1% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a university degree holder rate of 24.8% among residents aged 15+, compared to NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.4% of residents holding them - advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.1%). Educational participation is high at 26.5%, including primary (8.9%), secondary (7.6%), and tertiary education (4.3%).

The area has six schools educating approximately 2,659 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1032) and balanced educational opportunities. There are five primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 142 active transport stops operating within Warners Bay - Boolaroo. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 69 individual routes serving these stops, providing 1,816 weekly passenger trips in total.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent; residents are typically located 174 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 259 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Warners Bay - Boolaroo, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~8,526 people) of the total population have private health cover, a rate higher than that of Rest of NSW. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and mental health issues (10.0%). A majority, 62.6%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the percentage in Rest of NSW. As of 2021, 23.4% (~3,607 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, higher than the 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with those of the general population.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay-Boolaroo had a cultural diversity score below average, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 55.0% of people, compared to 52.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Macedonian (0.4%) were proportionally equal to the regional averages, while Polish was slightly higher at 0.9% compared to the region's 0.7%.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's median age is 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43, and considerably older than the national norm of 38. The 45-54 age cohort makes up 12.7% of the local population, notably higher than the Rest of NSW average, while the 25-34 year-olds make up 10.3%, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average. Between January 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has increased from 7.8% to 8.8%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 13.6% to 12.5%, and the percentage of those aged 45 to 54 has dropped from 13.7% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Warners Bay - Boolaroo's age profile. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 515 people (33%), from 1,583 to 2,099. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts.