Warners Bay - Boolaroo
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay - Boolaroo are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's population is approximately 15,418 as of Aug 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 724 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,694. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,322 in June 2024 and an additional 324 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,229 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warners Bay - Boolaroo's growth rate of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (2.8%) and non-metro areas, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 61.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with Warners Bay - Boolaroo expected to grow by 2,197 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 13.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay - Boolaroo among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has seen approximately 116 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25584 homes were approved, with a further 50 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home approved between FY21 and FY25, indicating balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions.

The average construction value of these new homes is $608,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY26, commercial approvals totaling $93.9 million have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 92.0% more new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers. Recent construction comprises 73.0% detached dwellings and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 126 people per dwelling approval, Warners Bay - Boolaroo is characterized as a low density area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 2,047 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 29 projects likely affecting the region. Key initiatives include Speers Point Transport Improvements, Edgeworth 112-lot Subdivision, McCloy Group Brush Creek Estate, and Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warners Bay - Boolaroo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of June 2025.

There was an estimated employment growth of 2.3% in the past year. As of June 2025, 8,107 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.5% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was fairly standard at 59.9%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

The area shows strong specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Warners Bay - Boolaroo's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.3%, labour force increased by 2.6%, resulting in a rise in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Warners Bay - Boolaroo's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Warners Bay - Boolaroo was $54,442 and average income was $72,182. This is higher than Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,307 and estimated average income would be around $81,284. Census 2021 data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Warners Bay - Boolaroo rank modestly, between the 44th and 50th percentiles. Income brackets indicate 29.3% of the population fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 46th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.0% houses and 24.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.1% and rented dwellings at 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,090, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $410, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,090 compared to the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in the area also exceeded the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 70.5% of all households, including 28.1% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Warners Bay - Boolaroo as of the latest data show that 24.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 32.2% in New South Wales. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas account for 12.3% and certificates for 27.1%.

Educational participation is high at 26.5%, including 8.9% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education. There are six schools operating within Warners Bay - Boolaroo, educating approximately 2,659 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1032) and balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with five primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 142 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 69 individual routes that facilitate 1,816 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 174 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency stands at 259 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Warners Bay - Boolaroo, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~8,526 people) have private health cover, a rate notably higher than the national average. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.4%) and mental health issues (10.0%). Notably, 62.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the Rest of NSW figure. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.4% (3,607 people), compared to 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges largely mirroring those of the general population.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay- Boolaroo had a cultural diversity index below average, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.0% of people, compared to 52.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Polish (0.9%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Macedonian (0.4%) was equally represented with its regional average.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's median age is 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43, and considerably older than the national norm of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Warners Bay - Boolaroo at 12.7%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.8% to 8.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 13.6% to 12.5%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 13.7% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's age profile will evolve significantly. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, with an increase of 515 people (33%) from 1,583 to 2,099. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.