Warners Bay - Boolaroo

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay - Boolaroo are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's population is around 16,165 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,471 people (10.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,694 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,268 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 363 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,289 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warners Bay - Boolaroo's 10.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.1%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 61.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of regional areas nationally is expected, with the area expected to increase by 2,197 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 8.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay - Boolaroo among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has recorded around 116 residential properties granted approval annually, totalling 584 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 70 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 1.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand seem well-matched, fostering stable market dynamics, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $339,000. There have also been $93.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Warners Bay - Boolaroo records 92.0% more building activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice. New development consists of 73.0% standalone homes and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 126 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections show Warners Bay - Boolaroo adding 1,300 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 29 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Speers Point Transport Improvements, McCloy Group Brush Creek Estate, Munibung Road Boolaroo Residential Precinct (Cockle Creek TOD), and Weemala at the Lake, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Warners Bay - Boolaroo ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Warners Bay - Boolaroo possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.8%, and 0.6% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,047 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.1% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (65.1% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 26.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Warners Bay - Boolaroo's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.6% and the labour force increased by 1.5%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.9 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Warners Bay - Boolaroo. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warners Bay - Boolaroo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Warners Bay - Boolaroo SA2 is very high nationally, with the median assessed at $57,488 while the average income stands at $74,668. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $62,581 (median) and $81,284 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Warners Bay - Boolaroo, between the 44th and 49th percentiles. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 29.3% of locals (4,736 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Warners Bay - Boolaroo, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.0% houses and 24.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Warners Bay - Boolaroo was higher than that of Regional NSW, at 42.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.1%) or rented (23.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional NSW average at $2,090, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $410, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 70.5% of all households, comprising 28.1% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional NSW average.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Warners Bay - Boolaroo trail regional benchmarks, with 24.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 32.2% in NSW. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (27.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 208 active transport stops operating within Warners Bay - Boolaroo, comprising a mix of train and buses. These stops are serviced by 69 individual routes, collectively providing 1,941 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 173 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. A high 26.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 277 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data indicates relatively positive outcomes for Warners Bay - Boolaroo residents. AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and health conditions shows results broadly in line with national benchmarks, with the prevalence of common health conditions being quite low among the general population, though higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~9,068 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.4% and 10.0% of residents, respectively, while 62.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 23.5% of residents aged 65 and over (3,797 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay - Boolaroo was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is Christianity, which makes up 55.0% of people in the area. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Warners Bay - Boolaroo are English, comprising 31.9% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.7% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 0.8% of Warners Bay - Boolaroo (vs 0.5% regionally), Macedonian at 0.4% (vs 0.4%) and Polish at 0.9% (vs 0.5%).

Warners Bay - Boolaroo hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional NSW's 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional NSW, Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a higher concentration of 45 - 54 residents (12.6%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (10.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.8% to 8.7% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.6% to 12.2% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.7% to 12.6%. By 2041, Warners Bay - Boolaroo is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 23% (387 people), reaching 2,099 from 1,711. On the other hand, the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.