Warners Bay - Boolaroo

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay - Boolaroo are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's population is approximately 15,467 as of Nov 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 773 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,694. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,311 in June 2024 and an additional 349 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a population density of 1,233 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 5.3% since the 2021 Census surpassed both the SA3 area (2.9%) and non-metro areas, indicating it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 61.8% to recent population gains, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to grow by approximately 2,197 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 12.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay - Boolaroo among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has seen approximately 116 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25584 homes were approved, and by June 2026, 65 more have been approved in FY26. On average, around 1.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY21 and FY25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions.

The average construction value of these homes is $339,000. In the current financial year, commercial approvals totaling $93.9 million have been registered, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 92.0% more new home approvals per capita, offering greater choice for buyers. Recent construction consists of 73.0% detached dwellings and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban character while attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 126 people per dwelling approval, the region displays low-density characteristics. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warners Bay - Boolaroo is forecasted to gain 1,998 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers while potentially allowing population growth to exceed current forecasts.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 29 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Speers Point Transport Improvements, McCloy Group Brush Creek Estate, Munibung Road Boolaroo Residential Precinct (Cockle Creek TOD), and Weemala at the Lake. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warners Bay - Boolaroo demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.4%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

In the past year, employment growth was estimated at 3.2%. As of September 2025, 8,148 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.5% below the regional average. Workforce participation is similar to the Rest of NSW's rate at 59.9%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with employment share 1.2 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of the workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, labour force by 3.6%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. This contrasts with the Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, lower than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections forecast national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, varying significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Warners Bay - Boolaroo's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates that median income in Warners Bay - Boolaroo SA2 is $54,442 and average income is $72,182. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median income would be approximately $61,307 and for average income around $81,284 as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank between the 44th and 49th percentiles in Warners Bay - Boolaroo. Income brackets indicate 29.3% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 45th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Warners Bay - Boolaroo, as per the latest Census data, 76.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warners Bay - Boolaroo stood at 42.2%, with mortgaged properties making up 34.1% and rented dwellings accounting for 23.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,090, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Weekly rent in the area averaged $410, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's median monthly mortgage repayment exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rent was higher than the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.5% of all households, including 28.1% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.5%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households at 2.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Warners Bay - Boolaroo trail region, as of 2021, 24.8% of residents aged 15 years and above held university degrees, compared to the New South Wales (NSW) average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational credentials were also prevalent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications; advanced diplomas accounted for 12.3% and certificates for 27.1%. Educational participation was high in the region, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2021.

This included 8.9% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warners Bay - Boolaroo has 142 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 69 routes, facilitating 1,816 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 174 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 259 trips daily across all routes, translating to around 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warners Bay - Boolaroo is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warners Bay - Boolaroo faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~8,553 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than the national average. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions, affecting 10.4% and 10.0% of residents respectively. Around 62.6% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of NSW figure. The area has a higher proportion of seniors (23.4%, or 3,619 people) compared to the Rest of NSW (21.4%). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay-Boolaroo had a cultural diversity index below average, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 55.0% of people, compared to 52.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Polish (0.9%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Macedonian was equally represented at 0.4%.

Warners Bay - Boolaroo hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warners Bay - Boolaroo's median age is 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 years. This makes it considerably older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the average in Rest of NSW, the 45-54 age group is notably over-represented in Warners Bay - Boolaroo at 12.7%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.3%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 7.8% to 8.8%. Conversely, the percentage of the population aged 55 to 64 has declined from 13.6% to 12.5%, and the 45-54 age group has decreased from 13.7% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Warners Bay - Boolaroo's age profile will see significant changes. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 510 people (32%), from 1,588 to 2,099. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts.