Kotara

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kotara reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Kotara's population is estimated at around 4,260, reflecting an increase of 280 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 7.0% increase from the previous count of 3,980 residents. The latest estimate of 4,186 was derived by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 39 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,704 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kotara's growth rate of 7.0% since the 2021 census exceeded that of Rest of NSW (5.9%) and its SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the area. Population growth for Kotara was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Kotara is expected to grow by just below the median rate of national regional areas. By 2041, the suburb is projected to gain an additional 253 persons, reflecting a total growth of 3.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kotara recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Kotara has recorded approximately 15 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 77 homes. In FY26 so far, 36 approvals have been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, an average of 2.4 people moved to Kotara per new home constructed. The average expected construction cost value for new homes over this period was $506,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment.

This financial year has seen $6.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus. New building activity comprises 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from Kotara's current housing pattern of 88.0% houses. With around 275 people per dwelling approval, Kotara shows a developing market with an expected population growth of 139 residents by 2041. Current development patterns suggest that new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth.

Looking ahead, Kotara is expected to grow by 139 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Kotara has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Local infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified three projects potentially affecting this area: Westfield Kotara Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Kotara Transport Oriented Development Precinct, Uniting Charlestown, and Woolworths Broadmeadow - Stage 1 Demolition. The following details the most relevant projects.

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The labour market in Kotara shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kotara's workforce is highly educated with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1%. As of September 2025, 2,445 residents were employed at a 1.3% lower unemployment rate than Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Kotara was 74.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 32.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Kotara has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.9 at Census time, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 3.1% and labour force rose by 3.7%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kotara's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Kotara had a higher income level than average nationally according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Kotara was $58,021 and the average income stood at $73,239, compared to figures for Rest of NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $63,162 (median) and $79,728 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Kotara cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 31.9% of residents (1,358 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Economic strength emerges through 31.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kotara is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Kotara's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kotara stood at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.4% and rented ones at 21.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Kotara was recorded at $460, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Kotara's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kotara features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households making up 3.9%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Kotara aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Kotara's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. 33.0% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them – advanced diplomas comprise 11.4% and certificates make up 23.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kotara has 61 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 48 individual routes, collectively facilitating 2,359 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 126 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high 32.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 337 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Kotara are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kotara's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~2,380 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (9.2%) and asthma (8.8%). 67.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. Kotara has 15.3% of residents aged 65 and over (651 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kotara ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kotara's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of the latest data, 87.4% of Kotara's population were born in Australia, with 92.7% being citizens and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Kotara, making up 47.6% of its population, compared to 55.9% across the Rest of NSW region.

The top three ancestry groups based on country of birth of parents were English (31.5%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (9.2%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) and Macedonian (1.1%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Kotara compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Hungarian ethnicity was also slightly higher at 0.3% compared to the region's average of 0.2%.

Kotara's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Kotara's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 but equivalent to the national norm of 38. The age group of 35-44 has a strong representation in Kotara at 14.9%, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 6.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.5% to 14.2% of Kotara's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 10.5% to 9.4%. Demographic modeling indicates that Kotara's age profile will significantly change by 2041. Leading this demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 19%, adding 112 people to reach 717 from 604. Meanwhile, population declines are anticipated for the 5-14 and 55-64 age cohorts.