Kotara

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kotara reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The suburb of Kotara's population is estimated at around 4,154 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 174 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,980 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,115 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 41 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,661 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kotara's growth rate of 4.4% since the census positions it within 0.5 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of national regional areas is expected. The suburb is projected to grow by 214 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall gain of 4.2% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kotara recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Kotara recorded around 14 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 70 homes. So far in FY26, 35 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.9 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, reflecting robust demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $506,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This year has seen $6.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus. New building activity comprises 44.0% detached dwellings and 56.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 88.0% houses), potentially due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 346 people per dwelling approval, Kotara exhibits characteristics of a developed market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Kotara's population to grow by 175 residents through to 2041.

Given current development patterns, new housing supply is expected to meet demand, presenting good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Kotara has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified four projects impacting the area: John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct, Westfield Kotara Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Kotara Transport Oriented Development Precinct, and Uniting Charlestown. The following details these key projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Kotara shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Kotara has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.9%. Over the past year, employment has remained stable.

As of December 2025, 2,343 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Kotara is high at 72.2%, compared to 60.5% in Regional NSW. According to Census responses, 32.8% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.1%. There are 0.9 workers per resident, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Kotara's labour force increased by 1.0%, while employment decreased by 0.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kotara's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Kotara has a higher income level than the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch. For financial year 2023, Kotara's median income among taxpayers was $58,021, with an average income of $73,239. These figures compare to Regional NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes for Kotara would be approximately $64,009 (median) and $80,797 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Kotara cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 31.9% of residents (1,325 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 29.9%. Economic strength is evident through 31.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income, while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kotara is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Kotara, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kotara was at 36.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (42.4%) or rented (21.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kotara was $2,167, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Kotara's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kotara features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households making up 3.9%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Kotara aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Kotara is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 33.0% have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.4% of residents holding them.

This includes advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (23.0%). Educational participation is high in Kotara, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kotara has 61 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 48 routes, facilitating 2,359 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents living an average of 126 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Kotara residents commute outward using cars, which remain the primary mode at 96%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 32.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 337 trips per day, equating to approximately 38 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Kotara are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Kotara's health indicators show below-average outcomes, as per AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 56% (~2,320 people) have private health cover, compared to Regional NSW's 51.9%. Mental health issues impact 9.2% of residents, while asthma affects 8.8%. About 67.6% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. The under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. Kotara has 16.2% (672 people) residents aged 65 and over, lower than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Kotara ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kotara's population showed low diversity, with 87.4% born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 47.6%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.5%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (9.2%).

Notably, Welsh (0.9%) and Macedonian (1.1%) groups were overrepresented in Kotara compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Hungarian representation was also higher at 0.3%.

Kotara's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Kotara is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Kotara has a higher proportion of residents aged 35-44 (14.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (6.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 25 to 34 grew from 12.5% to 13.4%, while the population aged 55 to 64 declined from 10.5% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Kotara's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 20%, increasing from 556 to 669 people. Conversely, the 5 to 14 and 55 to 64 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.