Kotara

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kotara reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Kotara's population is estimated at around 4,235 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 255 people (6.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,980 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,186 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 40 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,694 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Kotara's growth of 6.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area's growth of 5.7%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of national regional areas is expected. The area is expected to grow by 255 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 3.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kotara recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Kotara recorded around 15 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 77 homes. As of FY-26, 36 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $506,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This year has seen $6.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus. New building activity shows 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 88.0% houses. Kotara has around 275 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low density area. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Kotara to grow by 167 residents through to 2041.

Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Kotara has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified three projects that could impact the area's performance. These include Westfield Kotara Mixed-Use Redevelopment, Kotara Transport Oriented Development Precinct, Uniting Charlestown, and Woolworths Broadmeadow - Stage 1 Demolition. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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The labour market in Kotara shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Kotara has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.5%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

In the past year, employment grew by an estimated 3.2%. As of September 2025, Kotara's unemployment rate is 1.3% below the Rest of NSW's rate, with a workforce participation rate of 68.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. In the past year, Kotara saw employment increase by 3.2%, labour force increase by 3.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kotara's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Kotara has a higher income level than the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Kotara was $58,021 and the average income stood at $73,239. This compares with figures for Rest of NSW of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $63,162 (median) and $79,728 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows household, family and personal incomes in Kotara cluster around the 70th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 31.9% of residents (1,350 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 29.9%. Economic strength is evident through 31.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 72nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Kotara is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kotara, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.5% houses and 11.5% other dwellings including semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. The home ownership rate was 36.1%, with 42.4% of dwellings mortgaged and 21.5% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $460. Nationally, Kotara's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kotara features high concentrations of group households, with a median household size of 2.6 people

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 21.4% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.6 people.

Educational attainment in Kotara aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Kotara's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 33.0% have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the Rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.4% of residents holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 23.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.8% currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.7% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 5.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Kotara public transport analysis shows 56 active stops operating, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are serviced by 48 individual routes, providing a total of 2,359 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 126 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 337 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kotara's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Kotara's health data shows relatively positive results.

Common health conditions are less prevalent here compared to the general population, but they're higher than the national average in older, at-risk groups. About 56% (~2,366 people) have private health cover. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 9.2 and 8.8% of residents respectively. Around 67.6% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 0% in Rest of NSW. As of August 2021, 15.3% (647 people) are aged 65 or over. While health outcomes for seniors require more attention than the broader population, they still present some challenges.

Kotara ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kotara's population, as of the 2016 Census, was predominantly Australian-born, with 87.4% having been born in Australia. The vast majority were citizens, at 92.7%, and spoke English only at home, at 92.4%. Christianity was the dominant religion in Kotara, with 47.6% of people identifying as such, compared to None% across Rest of NSW.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.5%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (9.2%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) and Macedonian (1.1%) populations were higher in Kotara than regionally reported None%, while Hungarian stood at 0.3%.

Kotara's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Kotara's median age is 38, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure at 43 but matches the national norm. The 35-44 age group comprises 14.8% of Kotara's population, higher than the Rest of NSW figure, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 6.4%, less prevalent than in other areas. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.5% to 13.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 10.5% to 9.5%. By 2041, Kotara's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 25 to 34 group is expected to grow by 25%, reaching 720 people from the current 575. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 5-14 and 55-64 cohorts.