Toronto

Toronto has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Toronto's population is estimated at around 6,154 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 181 people (3.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,973 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,949, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 32 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 659 persons per square kilometer. Toronto's 3.0% growth since census positions it within 2.7 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 60.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of locations outside of capital cities is expected, with the area expected to grow by 825 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.7% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Toronto, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Toronto has experienced approximately 22 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 113 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years is approximately 0.8 per year.

This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is around $706,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. There have been approximately $1.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Toronto shows substantially reduced construction activity relative to the rest of NSW, with 58.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average.

This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. The composition of new development consists of approximately 64.0% standalone homes and 36.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living. The estimated population density in the area is around 749 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Toronto will gain approximately 660 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Toronto has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Toronto Foreshore Revitalisation, 114-120 Cary Street Mixed Use Development, 136-138 Brighton Avenue Apartment Development, and Rathmines Park Transformation.

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Employment conditions in Toronto face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Toronto has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 8.2%, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year.

There are 2,337 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 4.4% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags at 44.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 0.7% employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while labour force increased by 2.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toronto's employment mix, local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Toronto shows a median taxpayer income of $41,640 and an average of $59,187 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages; Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 in the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $45,329 (median) and $64,431 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Toronto falling between the 9th and 11th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that the largest segment comprises 27.4% earning $400 - $799 weekly (1,686 residents), while the broader area's largest segment is the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toronto, with only 82.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Toronto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Toronto, as per the latest Census data, 77.8% of dwellings were houses while 22.2% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toronto stood at 38.6%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 25.1% and rented dwellings made up 36.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,616, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent in Toronto was $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $380. Nationally, Toronto's median mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,616 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Toronto features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.6% of all households, including 18.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 16.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.4%, with lone person households at 32.1% and group households comprising 2.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Toronto fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 29.4%.

A significant 24.6% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 8.4% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 3.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Toronto shows 41 active public transport stops operating. These are a mix of bus services. They are served by 80 individual routes, providing 1,889 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 217 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 269 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toronto is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toronto faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately half of Toronto's population (~3099 people) has private health coverage, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 12.1% and 12.0% of residents respectively. However, 53.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 60.3% in Rest of NSW. Toronto has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (30.0%, or 1846 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 21.9%. Seniors' health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Toronto is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toronto's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.4% of its population born in Australia, 91.0% being citizens, and 94.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Toronto, comprising 52.7% of the population, compared to 54.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.5%), Australian (30.6%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is overrepresented at 5.8%, Welsh remains at 0.7%, and Samoan is also present at 0.3%.

Toronto ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Toronto's median age is 49, which exceeds the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and is well above Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 cohort is notably over-represented in Toronto at 11.0%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 10.1%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is significantly higher than the national figure of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 8.6% to 10.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.3%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 13.1% to 12.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Toronto's age structure. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 194 people (27%), from 707 to 902. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 65-74 cohorts.