Bolton Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bolton Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Bolton Point statistical area's population is estimated at around 2,201. This reflects an increase of 77 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,124. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,142 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,310 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Bolton Point has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.7% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 85.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a significant population increase is forecast for Bolton Point, expected to grow by 584 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 26.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bolton Point according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bolton Point has had minimal residential development activity in recent years. From 2016 to 2020 inclusive, there were a total of five dwelling approvals, averaging approximately one per year. This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing demand is modest and construction activity is limited by local factors such as demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that with such small approval numbers, yearly growth figures can fluctuate significantly based on individual projects. Compared to the Rest of NSW and national averages, Bolton Point has substantially lower development levels. All recent developments in Bolton Point have been standalone homes, reflecting rural living preferences for space and privacy. With around 1101 people per dwelling approval, Bolton Point's housing market appears mature.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Bolton Point is projected to grow by 584 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and price increases.

Bolton Point has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in this area as AreaSearch has identified no projects that could impact it. Key initiatives include the 114-120 Cary Street Mixed Use Development, 136-138 Brighton Avenue Apartment Development, Rathmines Park Transformation, and Costco Lake Macquarie Warehouse.

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Employment conditions in Bolton Point face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Bolton Point has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs represented. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 8.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.6% over the past year. In comparison to Rest of NSW, Bolton Point's unemployment rate is 4.2% higher at 3.8%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Bolton Point lags significantly behind Rest of NSW, at 46.8% compared to 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Health care & social assistance is particularly strong, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.6% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 1.6%, while labour force increased by 3.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data up to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bolton Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, although this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that median income in Bolton Point is $45,037 and average income stands at $58,637. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes are approximately $49,027 (median) and $63,832 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census reports that household, family and personal incomes in Bolton Point fall between the 14th and 14th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 30.0% of locals (660 people) predominantly earn $800 - 1,499, unlike metropolitan regions where the predominant category is $1,500 - 2,999 at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bolton Point, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile.

Bolton Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Bolton Point's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 85.3% houses and 14.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bolton Point stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.7% and rented ones at 40.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900. Median weekly rent in Bolton Point was $267, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $380. Nationally, Bolton Point's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,517 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bolton Point has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.1% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 19.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.9%, with lone person households at 26.2% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Bolton Point shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 16.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 29.3%. Educational participation is high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.8% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bolton Point has 18 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 31 different routes that together facilitate 488 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in Bolton Point is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 149 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 69 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 27 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bolton Point is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Bolton Point faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately half of its total population (~1,104 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues are the most prevalent condition, impacting 13.6% of residents, followed by arthritis at 11.4%. Conversely, 54.3% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 60.3% in the Rest of NSW. The area has a notable senior population, with 22.3% aged 65 and over (490 people). Health outcomes among seniors largely mirror those of the general population.

Bolton Point is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bolton Point, surveyed in August 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 90.3% born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 94.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated at 50.6%. 'Other' religions were overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to 0.4% regionally.

Ancestry wise, Australian (31.4%), English (30.6%), and Australian Aboriginal (8.4%) led. Welsh (0.8% vs 0.7%), Polish (0.9% vs 0.6%), and Spanish (0.4% vs 0.2%) were notably overrepresented.

Bolton Point hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bolton Point's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are prominent at 10.1%, while the 65-74 group is smaller at 9.5% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.4% to 12.1% of the population, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 11.3% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.2% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for Bolton Point indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 53%, adding 140 residents to reach 407. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort grows by a modest 1%, adding 3 people.