Warners Bay

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Warners Bay's population is estimated at around 8,881 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 644 people (7.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,237 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,356 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 63 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,617 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warners Bay's 7.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (4.1%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the suburb expected to expand by 1,131 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 6.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Warners Bay averaged around 31 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 155 homes. So far in FY-26, 22 approvals have been recorded. The average number of people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 was 4.1. This indicates demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $608,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $25.6 million, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warners Bay shows 10.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 74th percentile nationally.

Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 169 people per approval, Warners Bay reflects a developing area. Future projections estimate Warners Bay will add 606 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warners Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are Speers Point Transport Improvements, The Summit, Ryhope Street Subdivision, and Mount Hutton Precinct Area Plan. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Warners Bay ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Warners Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6%. As of December 2025, 4,397 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation was 64.5%, close to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 26.6% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 0.3% of workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.7, indicating above-norm local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.6%, labour force by 1.6%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to Warners Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Warners Bay suburb's median income among taxpayers was $51,897 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $68,819 during the same period. These figures were slightly above Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $56,495, and average income around $74,916, based on an 8.86% growth since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Warners Bay ranked modestly, between the 35th and 42nd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort consisted of 28.1% of locals (2,495 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to the metropolitan region's 29.9%. Income pressures were severe due to housing affordability issues, with only 83.5% of income remaining after expenses. This ranked at the 35th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Warners Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 67.8% houses and 32.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warners Bay stood at 45.3%, with mortgaged properties at 30.6% and rented dwellings at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,058, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Warners Bay was $420, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Warners Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,058 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.8% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 29.8% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 29.1% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Warners Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Warners Bay residents aged 15 and over have a university degree qualification rate of 24.4%, compared to the New South Wales average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are held by 38.8% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 26.9%. Current educational participation is high at 26.0%, including primary education at 8.7%, secondary education at 7.4%, and tertiary education at 4.0%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warners Bay has 145 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 40 different routes that together facilitate 627 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 158 meters of the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward from Warners Bay. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 26.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 89 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanying this analysis shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Warners Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Warners Bay faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but slightly higher among older cohorts.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population (~4,808 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (9.9%). 61.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Warners Bay has 26.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,335 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Warners Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay had a cultural diversity score below average, with 87.4% of its population born in Australia, 93.0% being citizens, and 94.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Warners Bay, comprising 55.6%, slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (8.9%).

Notably, Polish (1.1% vs regional 0.5%), Macedonian (0.6% vs regional 0.4%), and Welsh (0.7% vs regional 0.5%) were overrepresented in Warners Bay compared to Regional NSW.

Warners Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warners Bay has a median age of 46, which is higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group constitutes 10.2% of Warners Bay's population, compared to Regional NSW, while the 55-64 cohort makes up 11.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 9.1% to 10.1% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.2%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 13.7% to 12.5%. By 2041, Warners Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 21%, adding 190 people and reaching a total of 1,087 from the previous figure of 896. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 55 to 64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.