Warners Bay

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Warners Bay statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at approximately 8,875 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 638 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,237. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,356 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 49 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,616 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Warners Bay (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 7.7% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, exceeding both the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.0% and the non-metro area's growth rate during this period. Interstate migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains in recent periods for the Warners Bay (SA2), with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also positively influencing population growth.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Warners Bay (SA2) is expected to expand by 1,208 persons to reach a total population of approximately 10,083 by 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 10.4% over the 17-year period. This projected growth places the area just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas in terms of demographic trends.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Warners Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Warners Bay averaged around 31 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 155 homes. So far in FY-26, 22 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 4.2 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built, indicating significant demand exceeding new supply. The average construction value of these dwellings was $608,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $25.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warners Bay shows 11.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 74th percentile nationally, with recent intensification. Recent construction comprises 74.0% detached dwellings and 26.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 169 people per approval, Warners Bay reflects a developing area. Future projections estimate an addition of 926 residents by 2041, with current development well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Warners Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Fourteen projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the region. Notable projects include Speers Point Transport Improvements, The Summit, Ryhope Street Subdivision, and Mount Hutton Precinct Area Plan. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Warners Bay well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Warners Bay has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2%.

As of September 2025, 4,455 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.4% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.3% of local workers, compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating higher-than-average employment opportunities locally. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.2%, and the labour force grew by 3.7%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, with the labour force falling by 0.1% and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment was 4.3% during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warners Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Warners Bay suburb's income level is above national average, per latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $51,897, average income is $68,819. Rest of NSW has median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $56,495 (median) and $74,916 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks Warners Bay's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between 35th and 42nd percentiles. Predominant earnings cohort spans 28.1% of locals in $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to metropolitan region at 29.9%. Income remaining after housing affordability pressures is ranked at 35th percentile with only 83.5% left. SEIFA income ranking places Warners Bay in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Warners Bay, as evaluated at the Census conducted in 2016, comprised 67.8% houses and 32.2% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings in the same year. The level of home ownership in Warners Bay was 45.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented dwellings at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of 2016, was $2,058, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had mortgage repayments averaging $2,000 and rents averaging $370 in 2016. Nationally, Warners Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of 2016, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 29.8% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 29.1% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5 people.

The educational profile of Warners Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Warners Bay's residents aged 15+ have a university degree rate of 24.4%, compared to NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (17.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.8% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 26.9%. Current educational participation is high at 26.0%, including primary (8.7%), secondary (7.4%), and tertiary education (4.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 145 active transport stops in Warners Bay, consisting of bus services. These are covered by 40 routes, offering a total of 627 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 158 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 89 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 4 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Warners Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Warners Bay, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 54% (~4,804 people) have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (9.9%). Conversely, 61.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in the rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.9% (2,298 people), compared to 21.4% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Warners Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay had a cultural diversity level below average, with 87.4% of its population born in Australia, 93.0% being citizens, and 94.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion in Warners Bay, accounting for 55.6%, compared to 52.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (8.9%).

Notably, Polish (1.1%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.7%. Macedonian (0.6%) and Welsh (0.7%) also had higher representations than their respective regional averages of 0.4% and 0.8%.

Warners Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warners Bay has a median age of 46, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and significantly higher than the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group makes up 10.1% of Warners Bay's population, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.8%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 9.3% to 10.1%, and the 45-54 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 12.6%. By 2041, Warners Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 29% (249 people), reaching 1,119 from 869. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.