Warners Bay

Population growth drivers in Warners Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Warners Bay's population is estimated at around 8,121 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 116 people (1.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,237 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,037, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest Estimated Resident Population data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 49 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,479 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Warners Bay has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.2% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the suburb expected to expand by 1,196 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 20.5% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Warners Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Warners Bay averaged approximately 22 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 112 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5.8 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly exceeds new supply, which typically drives price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $608,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $5.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warners Bay shows approximately 65% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally, indicating an established nature with potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 71.0% detached dwellings and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character focused on family homes. With around 317 people per approval, Warners Bay reflects a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warners Bay is expected to grow by 1,668 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Warners Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Speers Point Transport Improvements, The Summit, Mount Hutton Precinct Area Plan, and Tingira Hills Care Community, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Warners Bay well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Warners Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.4%.

As of June 2025, 4,442 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4%, below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.3% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating above-average employment opportunities locally. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, labour force grew by 2.6%, leading to a slight unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contraction of 0.1% and an unemployment rise of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warners Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Warners Bay's median income among taxpayers was $51,887 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $68,808 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,430 (median) and $77,485 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Warners Bay rank modestly, between the 35th and 42nd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 28.1% of locals (2,282 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warners Bay, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 35th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Warners Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Warners Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 67.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 32.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warners Bay stood at 45.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 24.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,058, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Warners Bay was $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Warners Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,058 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warners Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.8% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 29.8% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.2%, with lone person households at 29.1% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Warners Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Warners Bay show that 24.4% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.8% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (26.9%). Educational participation is high in Warners Bay, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 4.0% pursuing tertiary education. The area has four schools with a combined enrollment of 2,321 students. Warners Bay's socio-educational conditions are above average (ICSEA: 1059). Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. As an education hub, Warners Bay offers 28.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 14.6, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warners Bay has 97 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 40 different routes that together offer 620 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 159 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 88 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warners Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warners Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data from June 2021.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~4,396 people) of Warners Bay residents have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (9.9%). Notably, 61.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in the Rest of NSW. Warners Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.9% (2,103 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 21.4%. The health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligned with the overall population's health profile.

Warners Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Warners Bay had a cultural diversity score below average, with 87.4% of its residents born in Australia, 93.0% being citizens, and 94.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.6% of the population, slightly higher than the 52.5% average across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (29.7%), and Scottish (8.9%).

Some ethnic groups had notable differences in representation: Polish at 1.1% compared to regional 0.7%, Macedonian at 0.6% versus 0.4%, and Welsh at 0.7% compared to 0.8%.

Warners Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warners Bay has a median age of 46, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group comprises 10.1% of Warners Bay's population, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.8%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 10.1%, and the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.7% to 12.6%. By 2041, Warners Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 41% (324 people), reaching 1,120 from 795. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.