Cardiff South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cardiff South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Cardiff South's population is estimated at around 2,987 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 56 people (1.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,931 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,979 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,890 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cardiff South's 1.9% growth since census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb expected to increase by 484 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 15.9% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cardiff South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Cardiff South has experienced around 10 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 52 homes were approved, with a further 7 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 2.9 people have moved to the area annually for each new home constructed during these years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $395,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting an emphasis on quality construction. This year, commercial approvals totalling $4.2 million have been registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Cardiff South records 16.0% less building activity per person but places among the 59th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 90.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

At around 256 people per approval, Cardiff South reflects a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 476 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cardiff South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects potentially impacting this region: Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program, Garden Suburb, Lake Macquarie Modular Social Housing, and Cardiff Strategic Planning Framework. These are the key projects likely to have the greatest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Cardiff South ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Cardiff South has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of the latest data aggregation. Over the past year, employment remained relatively stable.

As of December 2025, 1,728 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was high at 72.1%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 19.9% of residents worked from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Cardiff South had a particularly notable concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence, with 0% employment compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in the latest data point, labour force increased by 0.8%, while employment decreased by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cardiff South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch reports that based on latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, Cardiff South's median taxpayer income was $54,155 and average income stood at $64,424. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Regional NSW. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,744 (median) and $71,073 (average), factoring a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Cardiff South rank modestly between the 46th and 50th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 38.0% of locals (1,135 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with broader trends across surrounding regions at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 47th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Cardiff South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cardiff South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardiff South was at 34.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,777, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Cardiff South was $400, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Cardiff South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cardiff South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 24.9% and group households making up 3.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Cardiff South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (31.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.4%, with 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cardiff South has 28 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that together facilitate 519 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 147 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most inhabitants commute outward using personal vehicles, which remain the primary mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.5 cars per household in the area. According to the 2021 Census, 19.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, buses run an average of 74 trips per day, equating to roughly 18 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Cardiff South is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Cardiff South faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's analysis.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 52% of the total population (around 1,565 people). Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 11.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. About 63.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents have notably high chronic condition rates. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.3%, compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

Cardiff South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardiff South, surveyed between June 2016 and August 2018, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 91.3% of residents born in Australia. Citizenship was held by 93.1%, and English was spoken exclusively at home by 93.9%. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 51.3% compared to the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

Ancestry-wise, Australians made up 31.7%, followed by English at 29.8% and Irish at 7.6%. Notably, Hungarian (0.4%), Polish (1.0%), and Macedonian (0.7%) ancestry were more prevalent in Cardiff South than the regional averages of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively.

Cardiff South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Cardiff South is 37 years, which is lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 35-44 are prominent, making up 14.8% of the population, while those aged 65-74 comprise a smaller proportion at 7.1%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of people aged 75-84 has grown from 5.3% to 6.8%, and the 35-44 age group has increased from 13.4% to 14.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has declined from 13.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 25-34 age cohort will increase significantly by 142 people (34%), growing from 415 to 558 individuals. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age group is projected to decrease by 6 residents.