Cardiff South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cardiff South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Cardiff South statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 3,139 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 208 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,931 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,095 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,986 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The growth rate of Cardiff South (SA2) since the 2021 census was 7.1%, exceeding the SA3 area's 4.0% and the non-metro area's growth rate, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is anticipated for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. The Cardiff South (SA2) area is expected to increase by 540 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 14.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cardiff South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Cardiff South experienced around 10 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 51 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY-26. This suggests solid demand supporting property values, with new homes constructed at an average value of $395,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating emphasis on quality construction.

In the current financial year, $4.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Cardiff South records 18.0% less building activity per person while it places among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, currently 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 264 people per approval, Cardiff South reflects a transitioning market.

Population forecasts indicate Cardiff South will gain 455 residents through to 2041, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and supporting price increases if current development rates do not match population growth.

Cardiff South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to influence this region. Notable projects include the Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program, Garden Suburb development, Lake Macquarie Modular Social Housing initiative, and Cardiff Strategic Planning Framework. Details about these key projects are outlined below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Cardiff South well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Cardiff South has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4%.

As of September 2025, 1,815 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 1.2% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 66.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance (1.3 times the regional average), retail trade, and construction. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs none of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. In the past year, employment increased by 3.4%, labour force by 3.8%, raising unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. By contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force decline by 0.1%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cardiff South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.4% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, the suburb of Cardiff South had a median income among taxpayers of $54,155 and an average income of $64,424. These figures are below the national average and compare to levels of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cardiff South would be approximately $58,953 (median) and $70,132 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Cardiff South rank modestly, between the 46th and 50th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 38.0% of residents (1,192 people), reflecting patterns seen regionally where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cardiff South, with only 84.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 47th percentile.

Cardiff South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Cardiff South, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 10.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's composition of 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardiff South stood at 34.0%, with mortgaged properties at 43.4% and rented dwellings at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,777, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000 and the national figure of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Cardiff South was $400, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $370 but lower than the national average of $375.

Cardiff South has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 24.9% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Cardiff South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has lower university qualification rates at 17.2%, compared to NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.1% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational credentials are held by 41.8% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 31.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.4% currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.5% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 28 active stops operating in Cardiff South, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 14 routes, collectively providing 519 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 147 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 74 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cardiff South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Cardiff South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups, but somewhat higher among older cohorts. Approximately 52% (~1645 people) have private health cover, slightly higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Rest of NSW at 54.4%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. Around 63.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.4% (483 people), compared to 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cardiff South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardiff South, as per the census conducted on the 9th of August, 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 91.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.1% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Cardiff South, accounting for 51.3% of the population, slightly below the Rest of NSW average of 52.5%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.7%), English (29.8%), and Irish (7.6%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.2%), Polish (1.0% vs regional 0.7%), and Macedonian (0.7% vs regional 0.4%) groups were overrepresented in Cardiff South compared to the rest of NSW.

Cardiff South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Cardiff South is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are prominent at 14.3%, while those aged 65-74 are smaller in number at 6.7%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.4% to 14.7%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.3% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.1% to 11.3%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 8.1% to 6.7%. By 2041, demographic projections show that the 25-34 age cohort is expected to increase significantly by 157 people (36%), from 433 to 591. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.