Cardiff South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cardiff South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cardiff South is around 3141, reflecting a growth of 210 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 7.2% rise from the previous population count of 2931. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3095 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024, along with an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1988 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cardiff South's 7.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (4.1%) and the Rest of NSW, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered by this data. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to increase by 535 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 14.2% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cardiff South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates that Cardiff South has experienced around 10 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, approximately 51 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 2.4 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these years, suggesting solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $395,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction. This year, $4.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Cardiff South records 18.0% less building activity per person while it places among the 58th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This level is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potentially suggesting planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 264 people per approval, Cardiff South reflects a transitioning market. Population forecasts indicate that Cardiff South will gain approximately 447 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Cardiff South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting this area: Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program, Garden Suburb, Lake Macquarie Modular Social Housing, and Cardiff Strategic Planning Framework. Details on the most relevant ones follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Cardiff South well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Cardiff South has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%.

As of September 2025, 1,812 residents are employed, with a participation rate of 73.2% compared to the Rest of NSW's 61.5%. A moderate 19.9% work from home. Major industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with healthcare notably concentrated at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs none of local workers, below the Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 3.4% while unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.9% over five years and 14.4% over ten years for Cardiff South, based on its current employment mix.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released in financial year 2023, Cardiff South had a median income among taxpayers of $54,155 and an average income of $64,424. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cardiff South would be approximately $58,953 (median) and $70,132 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Cardiff South rank modestly, between the 46th and 50th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 38.0% of residents (1,193 people), reflecting patterns seen regionally where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cardiff South, with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 47th percentile.

Cardiff South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cardiff South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardiff South was 34.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,777, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Cardiff South was $400, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Cardiff South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cardiff South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 24.9% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Cardiff South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.8% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 31.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cardiff South has 28 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that together facilitate 519 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 147 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most residents commute outwards, primarily using cars at a rate of 94%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, 19.9% of residents work from home, which may be partially due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 74 trips per day, equating to roughly 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cardiff South is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Cardiff South faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The area has approximately 52% private health cover, which is higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues impact 11.0% of residents, while arthritis affects 8.5%. About 63.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Cardiff South has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (483 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cardiff South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardiff South, as per the Australian Census 2016 data, showed lower cultural diversity with 91.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.1% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 51.3% of the population, compared to 55.9% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.7%), English (29.8%), and Irish (7.6%).

Notable differences existed in the representation of Hungarian (0.4%, vs regional 0.2%), Polish (1.0%, vs 0.5%), and Macedonian (0.7%, vs 0.4%) ethnic groups.

Cardiff South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Cardiff South is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 35-44 are particularly prominent, making up 15.0% of the population, while those aged 65-74 are relatively smaller at 6.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.4% to 15.0%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.3% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.1% to 10.8%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 8.1% to 6.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 25-34 age cohort is expected to increase significantly, with an addition of 145 people (a 33% rise) from 446 to 592. Meanwhile, both the 75-84 and 65-74 age groups are projected to decrease in number.