Cardiff South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cardiff South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Cardiff South is around 3,120. This reflects an increase of 189 people from the 2021 Census figure of 2,931. The growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,109 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 14 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,974 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cardiff South's growth rate of 6.4% since the 2021 Census exceeded that of both the SA3 area (2.9%) and non-metro areas, making it a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all migration factors also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilized. These projections anticipate an above median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with Cardiff South expected to increase by 543 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 15.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Cardiff South according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Cardiff South has experienced around 11 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Approximately 55 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional five approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 2.2 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $395,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year has seen $3.8 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Cardiff South records 11.0% less building activity per person while it ranks among the 55th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 64.0% standalone homes and 36.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 90.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 289 people per approval, Cardiff South reflects a transitioning market in terms of population growth. Future projections show Cardiff South adding approximately 477 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Cardiff South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may impact this region: Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program, Garden Suburb, Lake Macquarie Modular Social Housing, and Cardiff Strategic Planning Framework. The following details the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Cardiff South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Cardiff South has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.4% as of the past year's data aggregation from statistical areas by AreaSearch.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 2.7%. As of June 2025, 1,809 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 1.2%, below Rest of NSW's 3.7%. Workforce participation in Cardiff South was 66.8%, higher than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors for residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with healthcare notably concentrated at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed none of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 2.7% alongside labour force growth of 2.8%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cardiff South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022 shows Cardiff South had a median taxpayer income of $54,155 and an average income of $64,424. These figures are close to national averages, compared to Rest of NSW's $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2022 to September 2025 (an estimated period of three years), median income is projected to be approximately $60,984 and average income around $72,548. Census data indicates incomes in Cardiff South rank modestly, between the 46th and 50th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income analysis reveals that 38.0% of residents (1,185 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to regional patterns where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability is severe, with only 84.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 47th percentile.

Cardiff South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cardiff South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardiff South stood at 34.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,777, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Cardiff South was $400, higher than the national average of $375 but below Non-Metro NSW's figure of $370. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Cardiff South has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 71.7% of all households, composed of 32.7% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.3%, with lone person households at 24.9% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Cardiff South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (31.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.4%, including 9.5% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Cardiff South Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 276 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1006). It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has fewer school places per 100 residents (8.8) compared to the regional average (14.6), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 27 active stops operating within Cardiff South. These are mixed bus stops serviced by 14 routes offering 501 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 71 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cardiff South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Cardiff South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts.

Approximately 52% (~1,635 people) have private health cover, slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.0% and 8.5% of residents respectively. 63.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.6% across Rest of NSW. The area has 15.5% (483 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Cardiff South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardiff South, in a diversity assessment, showed lower cultural variety with 91.3% born in Australia, 93.1% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated religiously, at 51.3%, slightly below the Rest of NSW average of 52.5%. Ancestral breakdown revealed Australians as the largest group (31.7%), followed by English (29.8%) and Irish (7.6%).

Notable disparities included Hungarian (0.4% vs regional 0.2%), Polish (1.0% vs 0.7%), and Macedonian (0.7% vs 0.4%) populations.

Cardiff South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Cardiff South is 37 years, which is lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are prominent at 14.3%, while those aged 65-74 are smaller at 6.8% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 13.4% to 14.7%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.3% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.1% to 11.3%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 8.1% to 6.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show that the 25-34 age cohort is expected to increase by 161 people (37%), from 430 to 592. Meanwhile, the 65-74 group is projected to decrease by 8 residents.