Cardiff South

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cardiff South reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Cardiff South is around 3,141, reflecting a growth of 210 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,931. This increase represents a 7.2% rise in population. The resident population estimate of 3,095 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date contribute to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 1,988 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cardiff South's population growth of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeds that of the SA3 area (4.1%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected nationally for non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb of Cardiff South expected to expand by 574 persons to 2041, reflecting a 16.8% increase in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Cardiff South recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates that Cardiff South has recorded approximately 10 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 52 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built in the area between FY-21 and FY-25 has resulted in around 2.3 new residents per year, reflecting robust demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $395,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, indicating quality-focused development.

In this financial year, $4.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature. When compared to Rest of NSW, Cardiff South shows 17.0% lower construction activity per person while it places among the 60th percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity comprises 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% medium and high-density housing, showing an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 90.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Cardiff South reflects a transitioning market with around 253 people per approval.

Population forecasts indicate that Cardiff South will gain approximately 528 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Cardiff South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to impact this region: Lake Macquarie Bridge Replacement Program, Garden Suburb, Lake Macquarie Modular Social Housing, and Cardiff Strategic Planning Framework. The following details these key projects, focusing on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Cardiff South shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Cardiff South has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation). As of December 2025, 1,791 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.8% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation is high at 72.1%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Home workership stands at 19.9%, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with a share of 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.0%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally due to resident population outnumbering working population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.8%, labour force by 1.8%, leading to a 0.9 percentage point unemployment rise. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cardiff South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

In financial year 2023, Cardiff South's median income among taxpayers was $54,155, with an average level of $64,424. Both figures are below the national averages. In Regional NSW, these levels stood at $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Cardiff South would be approximately $58,953 (median) and $70,132 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Cardiff South rank modestly, between the 46th and 50th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 38.0% of residents (1,193 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, mirroring the broader area where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Cardiff South, with only 84.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 47th percentile.

Cardiff South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Cardiff South's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 89.6% houses and 10.3% other dwellings. This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cardiff South stood at 34.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.4% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,777, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Cardiff South was $400, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Cardiff South's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Cardiff South has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.7% of all households, including 32.7% couples with children, 23.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.3%, consisting of 24.9% lone person households and 3.7% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Cardiff South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (31.1%). Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.5% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 28 active public transport stops in Cardiff South, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 14 different routes, collectively providing 519 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 147 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant transport mode at 94%, with an average of 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 19.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 74 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Cardiff South is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health issues in Cardiff South, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups have notable health condition prevalence, with private health cover at 52% of the total population (~1646 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues affect 11.0% of residents, while arthritis impacts 8.5%. 63.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 15.9% of residents aged 65 and over (499 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Cardiff South is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cardiff South's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.1% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Cardiff South is Christianity, accounting for 51.3% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups represented are Australian (31.7%), English (29.8%), and Irish (7.6%).

Notably, Hungarian (0.4%) and Polish (1.0%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Cardiff South compared to regional averages of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, while Macedonian ethnicity was at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Cardiff South's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Cardiff South is 37 years, which is lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 and close to Australia's national average of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are prominent, making up 14.4% of the population, while those aged 65-74 comprise a smaller proportion at 6.9%. Between 2021 and now, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 13.4% to 15.0%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 13.1% to 14.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 13.1% to 10.7%, and the 65 to 74 group has decreased from 8.1% to 6.9%. By 2041, projections indicate that the 25 to 34 age cohort will increase by 152 people (34%), growing from 452 to 605 individuals. Meanwhile, the 65 to 74 group is projected to decrease by 1 resident.