Elermore Vale

Population growth drivers in Elermore Vale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation for the broader area, the estimated population of Elermore Vale as of Feb 2026 is around 6,347. This figure reflects an increase of 290 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,057. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 6,264 residents following their examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of an additional 66 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,269 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Elermore Vale's growth rate of 4.8% since the census is within 1.1 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by just below the median rate of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an expected expansion of 878 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 12.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elermore Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Elermore Vale averaged around 24 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 123 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. So far in FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built has resulted in an average of 2.1 new residents per year over these five years.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $410,000, slightly above the regional average. This financial year, there have been $4.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential character. New development consists of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 79.0% houses. This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

Elermore Vale shows a developed market with around 379 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate Elermore Vale will add 795 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Elermore Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Western Corridor Road Upgrades - Longworth Avenue and Minmi Road, Duncan Close Residential Development, Infinite Early Learning Elermore Vale, and John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Elermore Vale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Elermore Vale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.5% as of December 2025. This rate is 0.6% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Elermore Vale is similar to Regional NSW at 61.3%. According to Census responses, 25.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Elermore Vale has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Elermore Vale's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, while labour force increased by 1.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elermore Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Elermore Vale is below the national average. The median income is $52,951 while the average income stands at $62,471. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Elermore Vale would be approximately $57,642 (median) and $68,006 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household incomes rank modestly in Elermore Vale, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. The data shows that the predominant income cohort spans 30.3% of locals (1,923 people) in the $1,500 - $2,999 category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Elermore Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

As evaluated in the latest Census, dwelling structures in Elermore Vale consisted of 79.2% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elermore Vale stood at 37.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.4% and rented ones at 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Elermore Vale was $380, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Elermore Vale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Elermore Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.8% of all households, including 30.4% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.2%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Elermore Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Elermore Vale trail regional benchmarks, with 26.0% of residents aged 15 and over holding university degrees compared to the state average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 25.0%. Educational participation is notably high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elermore Vale has 87 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 64 different routes that together facilitate 1,054 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 128 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outside Elermore Vale, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 95%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 25.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 150 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Elermore Vale is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Elermore Vale faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantially higher than average in the area, particularly amongst older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 52% of the total population (~3,278 people) having it. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.6 and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 59.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,440 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Elermore Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elermore Vale, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, showed a lower than average cultural diversity. The population born in Australia constituted 84.5%, with 92.2% being citizens and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the prevalent religion, accounting for 53.5% of the population.

This figure is slightly below the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (8.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Welsh was overrepresented at 0.9%, compared to 0.5% regionally; Polish at 1.3%, against a regional average of 0.5%; Macedonian at 2.0%, while the regional average stood at 0.4%.

Elermore Vale's median age exceeds the national pattern

Elermore Vale's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.6% of Elermore Vale's population, compared to Regional NSW's figure, while the 55-64 cohort constitutes 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group grew from 12.5% to 15.6%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 12.2% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort decreased from 10.8% to 9.5%, and the 65-74 group fell from 11.9% to 10.8%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Elermore Vale's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 25%, adding 248 residents for a total of 1,239. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.