Elermore Vale

Population growth drivers in Elermore Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, Elermore Vale's population is estimated at around 6,381, reflecting an increase of 324 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 6,057 in the suburb. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,337 following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024, along with an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,276 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Elermore Vale's growth rate of 5.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.1%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb of Elermore Vale over the next few decades. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 864 persons, reflecting a gain of 12.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Elermore Vale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Elermore Vale averaged approximately 27 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 136 homes. As of FY-26, 13 approvals have been recorded. The area has seen an average of 1.9 people moving in per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $410,000, aligning with regional trends.

In FY-26, there have been $1.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. New development in Elermore Vale consists of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift from the current housing pattern of 79.0% houses suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The area shows characteristics of low density, with around 266 people per dwelling approval.

Future projections estimate Elermore Vale will add approximately 779 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Elermore Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 17 projects likely affecting the area. Notable initiatives include Western Corridor Road Upgrades - Longworth Avenue and Minmi Road, Duncan Close Residential Development, Infinite Early Learning Elermore Vale, and John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Elermore Vale maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Elermore Vale has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 3.5% as of June 2025. This is 0.2% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

The estimated employment growth over the past year was 2.5%. Key industries for residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance is particularly prominent with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area appears residential-dominated with limited local employment opportunities indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.5% while the labour force grew by 2.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to Elermore Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Elermore Vale has an income below the national average. The median income is $52,950 and the average income stands at $62,470. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Elermore Vale would be approximately $59,627 (median) and $70,347 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Elermore Vale rank modestly, between the 30th and 39th percentiles. The data shows that the predominant income cohort spans 30.3% of locals (1,933 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which aligns with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Elermore Vale, with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Elermore Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elermore Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.2% houses and 20.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had no recorded houses or other dwellings. Home ownership in Elermore Vale stood at 37.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.4% and rented ones at 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $380, whereas Non-Metro NSW had no recorded rents. Nationally, Elermore Vale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Elermore Vale has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.5 people

Family households constitute 69.8% of all households, including 30.4% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.2%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people.

Educational attainment in Elermore Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Elermore Vale's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to NSW's 32.2%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.8% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 5.3% in tertiary education. Elermore Vale Public School and Wallsend South Public School serve 859 students collectively, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1041) with balanced educational opportunities. Both schools focus on primary education, with secondary options available nearby.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elermore Vale has 78 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 65 different routes that together facilitate 1,061 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 128 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 151 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Elermore Vale is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Elermore Vale faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,296 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (10.5%). Notably, 59.8% of residents report being free from medical ailments, a figure notably higher than the Rest of NSW's 0%. The area has a substantial senior population, with 23.2% aged 65 and over (1,480 people). Health outcomes among seniors mirror those of the general population.

Elermore Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elermore Vale has a cultural diversity below average, with 84.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.2% being citizens, and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 53.5% of people, compared to None% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (28.8%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (8.8%).

Notably, Welsh (0.9%) Polish (1.3%), and Macedonian (2.0%) ethnicities have higher representation in Elermore Vale compared to the regional average of None%.

Elermore Vale hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Elermore Vale's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 15.2% of Elermore Vale's population, compared to the Rest of NSW figure, while the 55-64 cohort is less prevalent at 9.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.5% to 15.2%, and the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.8% to 9.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Elermore Vale's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 29%, adding 280 residents to reach a total of 1,250. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.