Elermore Vale

Population growth drivers in Elermore Vale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Elermore Vale statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 6,343 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 286 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,057. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 6,264 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,268 persons per square kilometer. Elermore Vale's growth rate of 4.7% since the census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, an above median population growth is projected for the Elermore Vale (SA2), expected to expand by 867 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 12.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elermore Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Elermore Vale averaged around 24 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 124 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 resulted in 2.1 new residents per year. New homes are constructed at an average value of $410,000, slightly above the regional average.

This financial year has seen $4.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting Elermore Vale's residential character. Current development consists of 30% standalone homes and 70% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 79% houses). With around 379 people per dwelling approval, Elermore Vale shows a developed market. Future projections estimate Elermore Vale will add 820 residents by 2041.

Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though heightened competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Elermore Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones are Western Corridor Road Upgrades involving Longworth Avenue and Minmi Road, Duncan Close Residential Development, Infinite Early Learning Elermore Vale, and John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Elermore Vale shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Elermore Vale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of September 2025, 3151 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was similar to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was also broadly similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Elermore Vale has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Elermore Vale's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.0%, and labour force increased by 3.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Elermore Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Elermore Vale is $52,951. Average income stands at $62,471. This contrasts with Rest of NSW figures: median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $57,642 and average income is $68,006 as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, incomes in Elermore Vale rank modestly: household incomes at the 30th percentile, family incomes at the 37th percentile, and personal incomes at the 39th percentile. Predominant income cohort spans 30.3% of locals (1,921 people) with $1,500 - 2,999 income, similar to broader area's 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe: only 83.7% of income remains, ranking at the 39th percentile. Elermore Vale's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Elermore Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with strong rates of outright home ownership

Elermore Vale's dwellings, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 79.2% houses and 20.8% other dwellings. Home ownership stood at 37.1%, with 36.4% of dwellings mortgaged and 26.5% rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, and the median weekly rent was $380. Nationally, Elermore Vale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Elermore Vale has a typical household mix, with a median household size of 2.5 people

Family households account for 69.8% of all households, including 30.4% that are couples with children, 26.7% that are couples without children, and 11.5% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.2%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households comprising 3.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people.

Educational attainment in Elermore Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Elermore Vale trail regional benchmarks. 26.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 32.2% in NSW. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%).

Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is notably high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elermore Vale has 87 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 64 different routes, collectively providing 1,054 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 128 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 150 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Elermore Vale is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Elermore Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups are affected by various health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 52% of the total population (around 3,276 people). The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.6% and 10.5% of residents respectively. In contrast, 59.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 0% across the Rest of NSW. As of the latest data (20XX), 23.2% of Elermore Vale's population is aged 65 and over (1,471 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Elermore Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elermore Vale had a cultural diversity below average, with 84.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.2% being citizens, and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Elermore Vale, comprising 53.5% of people. This compares to None% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (8.8%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of None%, as were Polish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.0%).

Elermore Vale's median age exceeds the national pattern

Elermore Vale's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but exceeds the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.2% of Elermore Vale's population compared to Rest of NSW, while the 55-64 cohort makes up 9.6%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.5% to 15.2%, and the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.8% to 9.6%. By 2041, Elermore Vale's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 cohort is expected to grow by 30%, adding 285 residents to reach 1,250. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.