Elermore Vale

Population growth drivers in Elermore Vale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of Elermore Vale is around 6,347. This reflects an increase of 290 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,057. The growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 6,264 in June 2024 and an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,269 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Elermore Vale's growth rate of 4.8% since the census is within 1.1 percentage points of Rest of NSW's 5.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections for Elermore Vale are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregations, Elermore Vale is expected to increase by just below the median of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an anticipated expansion of 864 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 12.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Elermore Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Elermore Vale averaged approximately 24 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 124 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 2.1 new residents per year was gained for each dwelling built, reflecting robust demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $410,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $4.9 million in commercial approvals, indicative of the area's residential character. Current new development consists of 30.0% standalone homes and 70.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 79.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 379 people per dwelling approval, Elermore Vale exhibits characteristics of a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Elermore Vale is projected to add approximately 807 residents by 2041.

Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, though heightened competition among buyers may arise as the population grows.

Elermore Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could affect the area. Notable ones are Western Corridor Road Upgrades - Longworth Avenue and Minmi Road, Duncan Close Residential Development, Infinite Early Learning Elermore Vale, and John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Elermore Vale shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Elermore Vale has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.0%. As of September 2025, 3154 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.8%, similar to Rest of NSW's rate.

Workforce participation was broadly similar to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Based on Census responses, 25.1% of residents worked from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Elermore Vale's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment levels increased by 3.0% and labour force increased by 3.8% during the year to September 2025, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Elermore Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Elermore Vale is $52,951 and average income is $62,471. This is below the national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Elermore Vale would be approximately $57,642 and average income would be around $68,006 by that date. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Elermore Vale rank modestly, between the 30th and 39th percentiles for households, families, and individuals. The most common income bracket in Elermore Vale is $1,500 - 2,999, with 30.3% of locals earning within this range (1,923 people), similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Elermore Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Elermore Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.2% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elermore Vale was at 37.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.4% and rented ones at 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Elermore Vale was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents higher at $375.

Elermore Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.8% of all households, including 30.4% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.2%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Elermore Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Elermore Vale trail regional benchmarks, with 26.0% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 32.2% in NSW as of the latest data. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 25.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest figures: 8.8% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Elermore Vale has 87 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 64 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,054 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 128 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward and cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 95%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 25.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 150 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Elermore Vale is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Elermore Vale faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantially higher than average in the area, particularly among older age cohorts. Only approximately 52% of Elermore Vale's total population (~3,278 people) has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.6%) and mental health issues (10.5%). In contrast, 59.8% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments compared to the Rest of NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,447 people). While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Elermore Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elermore Vale, as per the data, had a lower than average cultural diversity. The population was predominantly Australian-born at 84.5%, with 92.2% being citizens and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Elermore Vale, accounting for 53.5% of its population, compared to 55.9% across the Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (8.8%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) was overrepresented in Elermore Vale compared to the regional average of 0.5%. Similarly, Polish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.0%) groups were also more prevalent than their respective regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%.

Elermore Vale's median age exceeds the national pattern

Elermore Vale's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but exceeds the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.7%, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 55-64 cohort makes up 9.5%. According to data from the Census conducted on August 10th, 2021, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 12.5% to 15.7%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 12.2% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 10.8% to 9.5%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 11.9% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Elermore Vale's age profile. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 26%, adding 259 residents and reaching a total of 1,256. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 cohorts.