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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Population
Population growth drivers in Elermore Vale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends
As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Elermore Vale is around 6,274, reflecting a growth of 217 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 3.6% rise from the previously reported population of 6,057. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, and includes an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,254 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Elermore Vale's growth rate since the Census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.
For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2-level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is expected for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb of Elermore Vale projected to grow by 780 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 12.1% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Elermore Vale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide
Elermore Vale saw approximately 24 new home approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 123 homes were approved between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 13 approved in FY-26. On average, 2.4 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years.
New homes had an average construction cost value of $410,000, slightly above the regional average. This financial year, $4.9 million in commercial approvals were registered, reflecting Elermore Vale's predominantly residential nature. Building activity showed 31.0% detached houses and 69.0% attached dwellings, indicating a shift from the current housing pattern of 79.0% houses. This change suggests decreasing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.
Elermore Vale had around 378 people per approval, suggesting a mature market. Population forecasts indicate Elermore Vale will gain approximately 757 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections despite potential increased competition among buyers as the population grows.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Elermore Vale
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Elermore Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally
Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Western Corridor Road Upgrades - Longworth Avenue and Minmi Road, Duncan Close Residential Development, Infinite Early Learning Elermore Vale, and Eden Estates. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct
The $835 million John Hunter Health and Innovation Precinct is a major redevelopment of the John Hunter and John Hunter Children's Hospitals at New Lambton Heights. The centrepiece is a new seven-storey Acute Services Building delivering an expanded Emergency Department designed for more than 95,000 annual presentations, 22 operating theatres and 9 interventional suites, a 60 per cent increase in ICU capacity, an expanded neonatal ICU, birthing and maternity units, and a new Nexus Child and Adolescent Mental Health Unit. The building connects to the existing hospital and the Hunter Medical Research Institute via four link bridges and includes more than 2,600 square metres of elevated gardens and around 900 additional car parking spaces. As of April 2026, the four link bridges have been completed and the rooftop helipad has been successfully tested and commissioned, with internal fit-out and landscaping advancing. Construction of the new building is on track for completion in 2026, followed by an operational commissioning period before patients are welcomed. Refurbishment of areas in the existing facility is scheduled to follow, due for completion in 2027.
Glendale City Centre Expansion
Expansion of Glendale City Centre, a sub-regional shopping centre on an 18.6-hectare landmark site in Lake Macquarie. The centre, owned by IP Generation (managed by MA Financial Group) since June 2024 following a $315 million acquisition from Stockland, has an existing development approval from 2018 to enclose the existing colonnade mall and add roughly 7,700 square metres of new retail floor space, plus a 1,900 square metre dining and restaurant precinct linking the shops and Event Cinemas. The centre is anchored by Coles, Woolworths, Kmart, Target and Event Cinemas, with more than 75 specialty retailers. The low site coverage ratio of around 28 per cent provides ongoing scope for further expansion under IP Generation's ownership. The expansion is closely linked to the staged Lake Macquarie Transport Interchange (Pennant Street Bridge) project being delivered by Lake Macquarie City Council.
Western Corridor Road Upgrades - Longworth Avenue and Minmi Road
Major dual-lane road upgrades along Longworth Avenue (Newcastle Road to Cameron Street) and Minmi Road (Maryland Drive to Summerhill Road roundabout) in Wallsend. The project includes widening roads to four lanes (two lanes each direction), removing difficult right turns, adding dedicated turning lanes, improved cycling and pedestrian connections, upgraded stormwater infrastructure, and intersection improvements. Daracon is the principal contractor, with construction commenced March 2025 and completion expected mid-2026. Funded by City of Newcastle with $7.61 million contribution from NSW Government's Accelerated Infrastructure Fund.
Infinite Early Learning Elermore Vale
A 141-place state-of-the-art childcare centre with six indoor play areas, originally planned as a medical and childcare facility including pharmacy, cafe, and pathology services, now changed to childcare only and under construction, set to open in Q3 2025.
Hunter Sports Centre Kaiyu Nungkiliko Expansion
The $52 million Hunter Sports Centre, Kaiyu Nungkiliko expansion has delivered a world-class athletics centre and an Australian-first Trampoline Centre of Excellence. The expansion includes a three-level, 4500m2 sport and community centre with community and function rooms, a 24-hour health and fitness centre, offices, caf' with commercial kitchen, and conference spaces. The NSW Trampoline Centre of Excellence features a 1300m2 hall with ten trampolines, two tumbling strips, a foam pit, warm-up areas, and grandstand seating for 400. The facility also houses the Trevor Height Athlete Testing Facility in collaboration with the University of Newcastle, offering cutting-edge sports performance analysis with VO2 max testing equipment for athletes of all levels. The centre serves as the Hunter region's premier sporting venue with Olympic-standard facilities including nine-lane Olympic running tracks and gymnastics centre.
Eden Estates
State-significant masterplanned residential precinct spanning approximately 574 hectares across Newcastle and Lake Macquarie LGAs. The rezoning proposal seeks to deliver up to 4,200 new dwellings, employment lands, community facilities, open space and conservation areas. Declared a Priority Precinct by the NSW Government in 2024 with public exhibition of the draft planning package occurring November-December 2024.
Duncan Close Residential Development
Staged development of 49 multi-dwelling homes on a vacant lot, including shared outdoor space and associated site works.
Elermore Ridge
A residential community featuring 106 homes over six stages, including two and three bedroom designs in single-level, split-level, and townhouse formats with contemporary finishes, gourmet kitchens with stone benchtops and stainless steel appliances, spacious open-plan living areas, and private terraces with gas outlets for outdoor entertaining. The community offers wide streets, tree-shaded parkland areas, and easy access to major amenities.
Employment
Elermore Vale shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia
Elermore Vale has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. As of December 2025, its unemployment rate is 4.7%, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. By this date, there are 3,010 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 0.7% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.
Workforce participation is at par with Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, a moderate 25.1% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.
Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.2% compared to 5.3% regionally. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.1%, but employment declined by 0.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.6 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Elermore Vale's employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis
The suburb of Elermore Vale had a median taxpayer income of $52,951 and an average income of $62,471 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Regional NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 during the same period. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,416 (median) and $68,918 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census ranked household, family, and personal incomes in Elermore Vale between the 30th and 39th percentiles. Income distribution showed that 30.3% of individuals earned between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the broader area where 29.9% fell into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Elermore Vale, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Elermore Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region
Elermore Vale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.2% houses and 20.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elermore Vale stood at 37.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.4% and rented ones at 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Elermore Vale was $380, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Elermore Vale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Elermore Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households account for 69.8% of all households, including 30.4% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.2%, with lone person households at 26.8% and group households making up 3.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Educational attainment in Elermore Vale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics
Educational qualifications in Elermore Vale trail regional benchmarks. 26.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 32.2% in NSW. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%).
Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (25.0%). Educational participation is notably high, with 27.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Elermore Vale has 87 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 64 different routes that together facilitate 1,054 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 128 meters of the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 95%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 25.1% of residents work from home, which may be partially due to COVID-19 conditions.
The average service frequency across all routes is 150 trips per day, equating to roughly 12 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Elermore Vale is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts
Elermore Vale faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment.
Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantially higher than average in the area, with an even greater disparity among older age cohorts. Only approximately 52% of the total population (~3,241 people) have private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.6 and 10.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.8% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 22.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,424 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Elermore Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics
Elermore Vale, as per the census conducted on Tuesday 9 June 2020, showed a lower than average cultural diversity level with 84.5% of its residents born in Australia, 92.2% being citizens and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Elermore Vale, accounting for 53.5% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (28.8%), Australian (27.9%) and Scottish (8.8%).
Notably, Welsh (0.9% vs regional 0.5%), Polish (1.3% vs regional 0.5%) and Macedonian (2.0% vs regional 0.4%) groups were more represented in Elermore Vale compared to Regional NSW averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Elermore Vale's median age exceeds the national pattern
Elermore Vale's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's national average of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.3% of Elermore Vale's population, compared to Regional NSW's percentage. Conversely, the 55-64 age group makes up 9.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group grew from 12.5% to 15.3%, while the 85+ cohort declined from 4.6% to 3.3%, and the 55-64 group decreased from 10.8% to 9.7%. By 2041, Elermore Vale's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 cohort is expected to grow by 25%, adding 243 residents to reach a total of 1,203. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts.