Caves Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Caves Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Caves Beach is around 3,990, reflecting a decrease of 26 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population estimate by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 was 3,930, with an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date contributing to this figure. This results in a population density ratio of 1,642 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Caves Beach has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb until 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, with an expected increase of 813 persons reflecting a total increase of 24.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Caves Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Caves Beach had three new dwelling approvals over the period from 2016 to 2020. This translates to less than one new dwelling approved annually, reflecting typical rural areas with modest housing needs and limited construction activity due to local demand and infrastructure capacity. Notably, the small number of approvals can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Caves Beach exhibited considerably lower construction activity during this period. Its development pattern was also well below national averages for dwelling construction cost values.

Caves Beach has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact performance. Four projects identified by AreaSearch may affect the area. Notable projects include Caves Beach Ambulance Station, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, South East Growth Area Plan, and Pelican, Blacksmiths, Swansea, Swansea Heads and Caves Beach Local Adaptation Plan. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Caves Beach shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Caves Beach has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3%. As of September 2025, there are 1,924 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.2% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 61.5%. According to Census responses, 29.6% of residents work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area shows strong specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.4%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, labour force increased by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caves Beach's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Caves Beach had a median income among taxpayers of $51,201 and an average income of $69,681. This is above the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,737 (median) and $75,855 (average). Census 2021 data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Caves Beach rank modestly, between the 30th and 43rd percentiles. The largest earnings segment comprises 27.9% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,113 residents), consistent with broader trends across the area showing 29.9% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census showed that in Caves Beach, 85.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 14.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caves Beach was higher at 50.5%, compared to mortgaged properties at 30.8% and rented ones at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,090, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Caves Beach was recorded as $420, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $330 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Caves Beach's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,090 compared to the Australian average of $1,863.

Caves Beach features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.2% of all households, including 30.3% couples with children, 34.1% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Caves Beach aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Caves Beach trail regional benchmarks indicate that 23.0% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the state average of 32.2% in New South Wales as of a recent report. This difference suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement in the region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 27.8%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as per the latest data. This includes 9.0% enrolled in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caves Beach has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 18 different routes that collectively offer 285 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 171 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 29.6% of residents work from home, which may be partly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 40 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caves Beach's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Caves Beach's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical of the general population, but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population (~2,173 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (12.0%) and mental health issues (8.3%). 61.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of 2021, the area has 28.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,117 people), higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Caves Beach showed lower cultural diversity, with 88.1% born in Australia, 94.3% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 56.8%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.7%), English (30.9%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Welsh (1.2%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.5%. Similarly, Maltese (0.9%) and Scottish (8.9%) had higher representation than their respective regional averages of 0.4% and 8.0%.

Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age of Caves Beach is 49, which exceeds the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and is above Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented in Caves Beach at 15.5%, while the 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented at 6.3%. This concentration of the 65 - 74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.6% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.8% to 11.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Caves Beach's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 151 people (44%) from 347 to 499. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort grows by a modest 6% (30 people).