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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Caves Beach is $1.34m, with units at $1.30m. House values have moved 1.4% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Caves Beach has an estimated 3,906 residents, down from 4,016 at the 2021 Census — a change of 110 people, or 2.7%. The population has thinned by an average 0.6% a year over five years, slower than 98% of areas nationally. That puts 1,607 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to ABS population updates for the wider region and new address files validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Caves Beach has an estimated population of 3,906 as of May 2026. This represents a decline of 110 individuals (2.7%) from the 2021 Census, when the population stood at 4,016. This shift is calculated from a resident population estimate of 3,905 by AreaSearch, which analyzed the latest ABS ERP release (June 2025) and subsequent address validations. The resulting population density is 1,607 residents per square kilometer, a figure that exceeds the average for locations nationwide analyzed by AreaSearch.
Recent population expansion has been primarily supported by arrivals from other states, which accounted for roughly 64.0% of all population gains. AreaSearch employs ABS and Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 unit, published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. Where such data is unavailable, SA2 projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 using 2021 as the baseline are utilized. Age bracket growth trends derived from these sources are applied to all locations for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregated SA2 projections, the suburb of Caves Beach is expected to experience population growth that exceeds the median for regional areas nationally, expanding by 742 residents by 2041. This represents a total population increase of 19.0% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Detail
Property development in Caves Beach is highly constrained, with an average of 2 new homes approved for construction each year, totaling 14 dwellings over the five-year period. This minimal building activity is typical of non-urban locales where residential requirements remain stable and construction is naturally restricted by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It should be noted that because of the small sample size, individual development initiatives can dramatically skew annual growth trends and relative benchmarks. The volume of residential construction in Caves Beach is substantially lower than in the Rest of NSW, and building levels also fall short of national averages.
Recent building activity is composed entirely of single-family detached homes, which preserves the spacious, non-urban character of the area. A ratio of approximately 783 residents per dwelling approval indicates a highly established residential property market. Looking forward, the local population is projected to grow by 741 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. If the current pace of home building persists, the supply of new housing may fail to meet the needs of the growing population, which could intensify competition among home buyers and support faster appreciation in property values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Caves Beach
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Caves Beach, worth an estimated $15 million. A further 24 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $688 million. 7 are already under construction and 10 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, sports & recreation and environmental & disaster management. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major planning decisions, and new developments are key drivers of regional growth. AreaSearch has identified 4 active projects expected to influence the local area. These primary initiatives include the Caves Beach Ambulance Station, the Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, the South East Growth Area Plan, and the Pelican, Blacksmiths, Swansea, Swansea Heads and Caves Beach Local Adaptation Plan.
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Caves Beach Ambulance Station
A new purpose-built ambulance station featuring internal parking for emergency vehicles, a dedicated wash bay, multipurpose paramedic areas, gym, and training rooms. It is part of the $615.5 million NSW Ambulance Infrastructure Program designed to optimize response times for the Caves Beach, Swansea, and Nords Wharf communities. Artist impressions were officially unveiled in January 2026, with construction expected to commence later in the year following contractor appointment.
Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution
A permanent dredging solution for Swansea Channel involving a Beaver 30 dredge vessel and a new sand transfer system to maintain safe navigation, pumping sand to Blacksmiths Beach. The project also includes upgrades to the Blacksmiths boat ramp.
42-44 Lake Road Residential Development
A 3-storey residential building comprising 20 apartments (3 one-bedroom and 17 two-bedroom), a 27 square metre commercial kiosk, 21 car parking spaces, and 1,012 square metres of landscaping. The development received approval from Lake Macquarie Council in April 2024 despite community concerns regarding traffic, drainage, and overshadowing. The building height of 12.22 metres exceeds the development standard by 2.2 metres to accommodate flood-level requirements for ground-floor apartments. The project includes communal open space and additional setbacks to southern boundaries to maintain solar access and privacy for neighbouring properties.
Swansea Seawall Stabilisation
Stabilisation and repair of a 50-metre section of seawall at Belmont Street, Swansea, near Swansea Wharf. The seawall has been closed since 2021 due to instability caused by over-steepening of the underwater slope in Swansea Channel, with water velocity scouring beneath the wall creating a safety risk. The wall was found to be cracked and slumping during wharf and pontoon replacement work. Lake Macquarie City Council has submitted a budget proposal to the NSW Government for the estimated 8 million dollar repair project.
South East Growth Area Plan
A strategic plan by Lake Macquarie City Council to manage and guide growth in the South East area of the LGA, including Swansea, Caves Beach, and Catherine Hill Bay. The plan focuses on leveraging the area's natural assets to become a tourism hub, while also accommodating population growth through appropriate development and infrastructure upgrades.
Salts Bay Littoral Rainforest Protection and Enhancement Works
Rehabilitation of endangered littoral rainforest ecosystem at Swansea Heads through targeted weed control, erosion management, and revegetation. The project addressed invasion of transformer weeds, urbanization impacts including rubbish dumping, and track erosion from unauthorized public access. Works included planting over 1,000 native species, installation of fencing to formalize access points, and comprehensive bush regeneration to protect this rare coastal ecological community. The project was supported by the NSW Coast and Estuary Grant Program and involved collaboration with OzFish Unlimited, Landcare NSW, and Bahtabah Local Aboriginal Land Council.Supporting infrastructure improvements included sealing of Salts Bay Road and construction of a car park to improve controlled access while protecting the sensitive ecosystem.
Pelican, Blacksmiths, Swansea, Swansea Heads and Caves Beach Local Adaptation Plan
A comprehensive plan developed by Lake Macquarie City Council in collaboration with the community to address the long-term impacts of climate change, specifically sea level rise and flooding. The plan outlines a series of actions and strategies to adapt and build resilience in these coastal suburbs.
Swansea foreshore enhancement project
The construction of a new boardwalk, installation of public art, revegetation works, landscaping, new wayfinding and interpretive signage and an upgrade to the western car park.
1,744 residents of Caves Beach are employed, from a labour force of 1,829. Unemployment sits at 4.7%, with participation at 55.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.7% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 3,159, about 81% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is characterized by a high proportion of skilled workers, particularly in essential service industries, with an unemployment rate of 4.7% estimated from aggregated statistical area data by AreaSearch. In March 2026, there were 1,744 employed residents. The local unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than the 4.1% recorded across Regional NSW, and the labor force participation rate of 55.2% is considerably lower than the regional average of 60.6%. Census data indicates that 29.6% of working residents operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by temporary pandemic restrictions.
Local residents are predominantly employed in healthcare and social assistance, education and training, and the construction sector. Education and training is a key area of local specialization, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry and fishing is underrepresented, employing just 0.4% of the local workforce compared to 5.3% across Regional NSW. A comparison between the count of local jobs and the size of the resident workforce suggests that local employment opportunities are limited within this mainly residential community. An analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from broader regional data reveals that during the year leading to March 2026, the local workforce shrank by 2.5% while total employment fell by 4.5%, leading to a 2.0 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Over the same period in Regional NSW, employment decreased by 0.9%, the labor force fell by 0.4%, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points. National employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide context for future workforce demand. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model potential growth. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary by sector. Projecting these industry trends onto the local workforce mix suggests employment could rise by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming a direct weighted extrapolation without adjusting for local population shifts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Caves Beach is $1,628 a week (about $85,000 a year), with median personal income at $711 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $51,201 a year against an average of $69,681. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxpayer statistics at the postcode level aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023 show a median income of $51,201 and an average income of $69,681. This sits slightly above national benchmarks, while Regional NSW recorded a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023 yields estimated values of roughly $56,485 for the median and $76,872 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and personal incomes are modest, falling between the 30th and 43rd percentiles.
About 27.9% of the population (1,089 residents) earn weekly incomes between $1,500 and 2,999, which is similar to the 29.9% seen regionally. Discretionary income remaining after housing costs stands at 86.0% of earnings, and the area is positioned in the 6th decile of the SEIFA income index.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Caves Beach had 1,496 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 86% detached houses and 4% apartments. 31% are owned with a mortgage, 19% rented and 51% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $420 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,090 a month. Rent absorbs 25.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 29.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, the local housing stock is composed of 85.6% separate houses and 14.4% alternative housing types, such as townhouses and apartments, compared to 82.6% separate houses and 17.4% other options across Regional NSW. The level of outright home ownership is high at 50.5%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 30.8% and rental properties making up 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage cost was $2,090, which is significantly higher than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, while the median weekly rent was $420, compared to $330 regionally. On a national level, local mortgage costs exceed the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are also well above the countrywide figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Caves Beach counted 1,496 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.6 people each. 30% are couples with children, against 34% couples without children. 21% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up 77.2% of all households, consisting of couples with children at 30.3%, couples without children at 34.1%, and single parents at 12.1%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 22.8%, with single-person households representing 21.1% and group households comprising 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 residents, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
23.0% of adults in Caves Beach hold a university qualification, including 16.3% with a bachelor degree and 4.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 27.8% hold a vocational qualification. 2 schools serve the area, with 1,077 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 1,001 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The proportion of residents with formal qualifications is lower than the regional average, with 23.0% of individuals aged 15 and over holding a university degree, compared to 32.2% across NSW. This highlights an opportunity for future educational attainment. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 16.3%, while postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas are held by 4.0% and 2.7% of residents, respectively. Vocational education is well represented, with 39.3% of residents aged 15 and over holding technical qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 27.8%. The rate of student enrollment is high, with 26.3% of the population currently participating in educational programs.
Of the total population, 9.0% are attending primary schools, 8.0% are in secondary schools, and 4.2% are enrolled in tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Caves Beach reaches 41 stops on 18 routes, timetabled for about 290 services a week. The typical home sits about 170 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 1.6 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Local transport options include 41 active transit stops, consisting of bus services. These stops are connected to 18 distinct routes, which provide a total of 285 weekly passenger trips. Transport convenience is rated highly, with homes located an average of 171 meters from the nearest stop. The community is largely residential, leading most workers to commute outside the area; private vehicles remain the primary mode of travel at 94%. Households own an average of 1.6 vehicles. A significant 29.6% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, a figure likely reflecting pandemic conditions.
Public transport services average 40 trips daily across all routes, which translates to roughly 6 weekly services per transit stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
61.2% of residents in Caves Beach report no long-term health condition. 6.6% need daily assistance with core activities, and 54.5% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators are generally aligned with national averages, according to assessments of mortality and chronic illnesses by AreaSearch. The prevalence of common medical conditions is typical of the broader population, though elevated among older residents, and the rate of private health insurance is relatively high at approximately 54% of the population (representing about 2,127 individuals), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The most prevalent health conditions recorded were arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 12.0% and 8.3% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 61.2% of the population reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW.
Residents of working age experience chronic health issues at rates above the national average. Individuals aged 65 and over make up 29.1% of the community (1,136 residents), exceeding the regional average of 23.4%. While health metrics for seniors present some challenges, they rank better nationally than the overall local population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Caves Beach is largely Australian-born, at 88.1% of residents, with 4.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (31.7%) and English (30.9%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity is lower than average, with 88.1% of residents born in Australia, 94.3% holding citizenship, and 95.9% speaking only English at home. The predominant religious affiliation is Christianity, representing 56.8% of the population, which is comparable to the 55.9% observed across Regional NSW. Looking at parental birthplaces, the largest ancestry groups are Australian at 31.7%, English at 30.9%, and Irish at 8.9%. Certain smaller European ancestries are notably more common here than in the wider region: Welsh heritage is claimed by 1.2% of residents (compared to 0.5% regionally), Maltese by 0.9% (compared to 0.4%), and Scottish by 8.9% (compared to 8.0%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Caves Beach is 49, older than 90% of areas nationally. 19.2% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of residents is 49 years, which is older than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is particularly large, accounting for 15.7% of the population compared to 9.4% nationally. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 grew from 11.5% to 13.1%, while the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 12.8% to 11.8%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections suggest the age structure will continue to shift, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 133 residents (36%) from 367 to 501, while the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to see a minimal increase of 3 individuals (1%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Caves Beach
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (4,016 at the 2021 Census → 3,906 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL10861). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.