Caves Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Caves Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the population of Caves Beach is estimated at around 4,060 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 4,016 people, indicating a growth of 44 individuals (1.1%). AreaSearch validated new addresses and inferred this change based on the resident population estimate of 4,004, derived from examining ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024. This results in a population density ratio of 1,670 persons per square kilometer for Caves Beach, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade (2015 to 2025), Caves Beach has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outperforming its SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Caves Beach is expected to experience above median growth compared to national regional areas, with an anticipated increase of 811 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 22.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Caves Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Caves Beach had six dwelling approvals over the period from 2015 to 2019. This translates to an average of one new dwelling approved annually during this time. Such low development levels are characteristic of rural areas, where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that with such a small number of approvals, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics. Compared to Rest of NSW, Caves Beach shows significantly less construction activity. The development pattern in Caves Beach is also well below national averages. All new constructions during this period were detached dwellings, reflecting the area's rural character where larger properties and space are typical.

With approximately 2756 people per dwelling approval, Caves Beach reflects a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, population forecasts indicate that Caves Beach will gain 906 residents by the year 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Caves Beach has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can be significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of four projects that are likely to impact the area. These key projects include Caves Beach Ambulance Station, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, South East Growth Area Plan, and Pelican, Blacksmiths, Swansea, Swansea Heads and Caves Beach Local Adaptation Plan. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Caves Beach has been broadly consistent with national averages

Caves Beach has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 1,919 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was somewhat below standard at 53.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training has employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented with only 0.4% of Caves Beach's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, while labour force grew by 2.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caves Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Caves Beach had a median taxpayer income of $51,201 and an average income of $69,681. These figures were above the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Caves Beach would be approximately $57,657, with average income at around $78,468. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Caves Beach ranked modestly between the 30th and 43rd percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis showed that the predominant cohort was 27.9% of locals (1,132 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999 per week, similar to the surrounding region at 29.9%. After housing expenses, 86.0% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Caves Beach, as evaluated at the Census conducted in 2016, consisted of 85.6% houses and 14.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure which was 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings during the same period. In Caves Beach, home ownership stood at 50.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented dwellings at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,090, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420. These figures are compared to Non-Metro NSW's average monthly mortgage repayment of $2,000 and weekly rent of $370 for the same period. Nationally, Caves Beach's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 as of 2016.

Caves Beach features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.2% of all households, including couples with children at 30.3%, couples without children at 34.1%, and single parent families at 12.1%. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8%, consisting of lone person households at 21.1% and group households at 1.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Caves Beach aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Caves Beach trail show that 23.0% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 27.8%. Current educational participation is high, with 26.3% of residents enrolled in formal education - 9.0% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary.

Educational provision includes Swansea High School and Caves Beach Public School, serving a total of 1,077 students. The area has balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1001). There is one primary and one secondary institution. The area functions as an education hub with 26.5 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 14.6, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 31 active stops operating within Caves Beach, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 18 individual routes, collectively providing 281 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 171 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 40 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Caves Beach is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Caves Beach, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is high, with approximately 54% (~2,211 people) of the total population having it. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.0%) and mental health issues (8.3%). Notably, 61.2% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in Rest of NSW. Caves Beach has a higher percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.9% (1,132 people), compared to the 21.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors show some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Caves Beach, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, exhibited a relatively low level of cultural diversity. The majority of its residents were born in Australia, with this figure standing at 88.1%. Furthermore, 94.3% of the population were Australian citizens, and an overwhelming 95.9% spoke English exclusively at home.

Christianity emerged as the predominant religion in Caves Beach, with 56.8% of residents identifying with it, compared to a regional average of 52.5%. In terms of ancestry, Australians comprised the largest group at 31.7%, followed by those of English descent at 30.9%, and Irish at 8.9%. Notably, certain ethnic groups were disproportionately represented in Caves Beach relative to the broader region: Welsh residents accounted for 1.2% compared to a regional average of 0.8%, Maltese residents made up 0.9% versus 0.3%, and Scottish residents constituted 8.9% compared to an almost identical regional figure of 8.8%.

Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age of Caves Beach is 49, which exceeds the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and is higher than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Caves Beach at 15.4%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 6.1%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 11.5% to 12.6% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 7.0% to 6.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Caves Beach's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 145 people (41%), increasing from 353 to 499. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 age group is projected to grow by a modest 5% (23 people).