Caves Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Caves Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Caves Beach's population is estimated at around 3,990 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 26 people (0.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,016 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,930 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,642 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of regional areas across the nation is projected, with the suburb expected to increase by 792 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 18.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Caves Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Caves Beach had minimal construction activity from 2016 to 2020 with fewer than one new dwelling approved annually. Over this five-year period, a total of four dwellings were approved. This low development level is typical in rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that the small sample size can significantly impact annual growth and relative statistics. Compared to Rest of NSW and national averages, Caves Beach has much lower development activity. All new constructions were detached houses, reflecting rural living preferences for space and privacy. The population density per approval was approximately 2757 people, indicating a mature, established area.

Caves Beach has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects are identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area: Caves Beach Ambulance Station, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, South East Growth Area Plan, Pelican, Blacksmiths, Swansea, Swansea Heads and Caves Beach Local Adaptation Plan.

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Caves Beach shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Caves Beach has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of December 2025, which is 0.3% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Caves Beach is similar to Regional NSW at 61.3%.

According to Census responses, 29.6% of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training employs a high proportion of the workforce at 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.4% of local workers compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, with a lower ratio of working population to resident population.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.1%, while employment declined by 0.4%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Caves Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Caves Beach's median income among taxpayers is $51,201 and the average is $69,681. Nationally, the median income is approximately $47,000 and the average is around $70,000. In Regional NSW, the median income is $52,390 with an average of $65,215. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Caves Beach as of September 2025 would be approximately $55,737 (median) and $75,855 (average). According to census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Caves Beach rank modestly, between the 30th and 43rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 27.9% of locals (1,113 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, which is similar to the regional pattern where 29.9% occupy this range. After housing expenses, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Caves Beach, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 85.6% houses and 14.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caves Beach was at 50.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented ones at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,090, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Caves Beach was $420, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Caves Beach's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,090 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caves Beach features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.2% of all households, including 30.3% couples with children, 34.1% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.8%, consisting of 21.1% lone person households and 1.8% group households. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Caves Beach aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Caves Beach trail regional benchmarks show that 23.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 32.2% in NSW. This indicates a potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (27.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 4.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caves Beach has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 18 different routes that collectively provide 285 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 171 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 29.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 40 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caves Beach's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Caves Beach's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the nation's average among older cohorts.

Private health cover rate is fairly high at approximately 54% of the total population (~2,173 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.0 and 8.3% of residents respectively, while 61.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 28.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,133 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Caves Beach, as per the census data from June 2016, showed a relatively low level of cultural diversity. The majority of its population, 88.1%, was born in Australia, with 94.3% being Australian citizens and 95.9% speaking English exclusively at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Caves Beach, with 56.8% of residents affiliating with it, which is slightly higher than the regional average of 55.9%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up the largest group at 31.7%, followed by those of English descent at 30.9% and Irish at 8.9%. Some notable differences were observed in the representation of Welsh (1.2% vs regional 0.5%), Maltese (0.9% vs regional 0.4%), and Scottish (8.9% vs regional 8.0%) ancestry groups in Caves Beach compared to Regional NSW.

Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Caves Beach has a median age of 49, which is higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Caves Beach at 15.5%, compared to the Regional NSW average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 6.5%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national average of 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.6% of the population. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 12.8% to 12.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Caves Beach's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to grow by 34%, increasing from 359 to 480 people. Meanwhile, the 15-24 age group is expected to grow by a modest 1% (7 people).