Caves Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Caves Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Caves Beach statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,984, a decrease of 32 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,016. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,930 as of June 2024. The population density in Caves Beach (SA2) is 1,639 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Caves Beach has shown resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% to recent population gains in the area. For projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas.

Population growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Caves Beach (SA2) population is projected to grow by 811 persons, reflecting an increase of 24.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Caves Beach according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Caves Beach had less than one new dwelling approved annually over five years ending 2021. This minimal activity is typical of rural areas with modest housing needs and limited construction due to local demand and infrastructure capacity. The small number of approvals can significantly impact annual growth statistics.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Caves Beach has significantly lower construction activity. Its development pattern is also below national averages.

Caves Beach has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Caves Beach Ambulance Station, Swansea Channel Permanent Dredging Solution, South East Growth Area Plan, Pelican, Blacksmiths, Swansea, Swansea Heads and Caves Beach Local Adaptation Plan.

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The employment landscape in Caves Beach shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Caves Beach has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.3%.

As of September 2025, 1,924 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is somewhat lower at 53.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a particularly strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.4% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, and labour force increased by 3.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. This compares to Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caves Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Caves Beach had a median income among taxpayers of $51,201 and an average income of $69,681. This is slightly above the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% between financial year ending June 2023 and September 2025, estimated median income in Caves Beach would be approximately $55,737 and average income around $75,855 by that date. Census data from 2021 shows household incomes rank at the 43rd percentile, family incomes at the 36th percentile, and personal incomes at the 30th percentile in Caves Beach. The earnings profile indicates that 27.9% of residents earn between $1,500 to $2,999 weekly, consistent with broader trends across the broader area where 29.9% fall into this category. After accounting for housing costs, 86.0% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Caves Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Caves Beach dwellings were 85.6% houses and 14.4% other dwellings in the latest Census, compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.4% houses and 17.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caves Beach was 50.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented ones at 18.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,090, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Caves Beach was $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Caves Beach's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,090 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caves Beach features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.2% of all households, including 30.3% couples with children, 34.1% couples without children, and 12.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households accounting for 1.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Caves Beach aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Caves Beach trail regional benchmarks show that 23.0% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the state average of 32.2%. This difference suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (27.8%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 41 active stops operating within Caves Beach, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 18 routes, collectively facilitating 285 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 171 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 40 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Caves Beach is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Caves Beach, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 54% (~2,170 people) have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.0% of residents) and mental health issues (8.3%). In contrast, 61.2% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 62.6% in the Rest of NSW. Caves Beach has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 27.9% (1,111 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 21.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Caves Beach is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Caves Beach, surveyed in June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 88.1% of residents born in Australia, 94.3% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 56.8%. This is slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 52.5%.

Ancestry-wise, Australians made up 31.7%, English 30.9%, and Irish 8.9% of Caves Beach population. Notable differences included Welsh at 1.2% (compared to regional 0.8%), Maltese at 0.9% (regional 0.3%), and Scottish at 8.9% (regional 8.8%).

Caves Beach hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Caves Beach has a median age of 49, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly above Australia's median age of 38. The 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Caves Beach at 15.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 6.1%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between January 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.6% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 7.0% to 6.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Caves Beach's age structure. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 152 people (44%), increasing from 346 to 499. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 6%, adding 32 people.