Bonnells Bay

Bonnells Bay lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Bonnells Bay statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at 4,066 people as of Nov 2021. By Nov 2025, this number increased to around 4,259, reflecting a growth of 193 people or 4.7%. This change is inferred from the resident population estimate of 4,254 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio for Bonnells Bay as of Nov 2025 is 1,298 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from Nov 2011 to Nov 2021, Bonnells Bay demonstrated a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outpacing the SA4 region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Bonnells Bay is forecasted to experience significant population growth in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with an expected increase of 1,709 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 40.1% over the 17-year period from 2025 to 2041.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bonnells Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Bonnells Bay recorded approximately 20 residential property approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 104 homes were approved, with another 5 in FY-26 so far. This averages to about 3.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

Supply has been lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers target the premium market segment, with new dwellings valued at an average of $517,000. Commercial development approvals this financial year totalled $693,000, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Bonnells Bay shows around 57% of construction activity per person and ranks in the 53rd percentile nationally. New developments consist of 93.0% detached houses and 7.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban nature. With approximately 302 people per dwelling approval, Bonnells Bay is considered a low density area. By 2041, Bonnells Bay is projected to grow by 1,707 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Bonnells Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects likely affecting this region. Notable initiatives include Trinity Point Mixed Use Development, Alliance Avenue and Wyee Road Intersection Upgrade (scheduled for completion in 2023), Fishery Point Road and Morisset Park Road Intersection Upgrade (commencing late 2022), and the Morisset Place Strategy (expected to begin in early 2024). Below are details of projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Bonnells Bay has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Bonnells Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%.

As of September 2025, 2,012 residents were employed, aligning with Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.8%, but having a lower workforce participation rate at 54.4%. Key industries for residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.6% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, labour force by 3.8%, leading to a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force decline by 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bonnells Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Bonnells Bay's median income among taxpayers was $44,615 and average income stood at $57,362 in the financial year 2023. These figures are lower than Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. By September 2025, estimates suggest Bonnells Bay's median income will be approximately $48,568 and average income around $62,444, based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Bonnells Bay rank modestly, between the 25th and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the regional figure of 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile.

Bonnells Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Bonnells Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 28 August 2016, consisted of 94.1% houses and 5.8% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnells Bay stood at 40.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.0%) or rented (26.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,820, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure for Bonnells Bay was recorded at $400, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $380 and the national figure of $375.

Bonnells Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 75.7% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 22.1% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Educational outcomes in Bonnells Bay fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.8% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 32.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 33 active stops in Bonnells Bay offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 29 routes, facilitating 300 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated excellent with residents typically 161 meters from nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 42 daily trips across all routes, equating to around 9 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bonnells Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bonnells Bay faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 50%, covering around 2,115 people, compared to 51.7% across the Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 10.3% of residents, while arthritis impacts 9.9%.

About 60.2% report no medical ailments, similar to the 60.3% in the Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.4%, with approximately 996 people, compared to 21.9% in the Rest of NSW.

Bonnells Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bonnells Bay had cultural diversity levels below average, with 86.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bonnells Bay, comprising 55.7% of people, compared to 54.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.9%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notably, South African ethnicity was overrepresented at 0.6%, Australian Aboriginal at 4.4%, and Maltese at 0.6%.

Bonnells Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Bonnells Bay's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 and older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 make up a significant portion at 12.8%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 9.4% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 11.4% to 12.8%, and the 35-44 cohort has grown from 11.5% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 11.1% to 9.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Bonnells Bay, with the 35-44 age group projected to grow by 52%, adding 283 residents to reach a total of 824.