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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Population
Bonnells Bay lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends
Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Bonnells Bay's population is estimated at around 4,291 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 225 people (5.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,066 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,291, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,308 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Bonnells Bay's 5.5% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (4.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.
AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecast, with the suburb expected to expand by 1,599 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 37.3% in total over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bonnells Bay when compared nationally
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Bonnells Bay had around 20 new homes approved annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 104 homes. As of FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 2.9 people moved to the area per new home constructed, indicating strong demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $517,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.
In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $693,000, suggesting minimal commercial development activity in the area. Compared to Rest of NSW, Bonnells Bay records about 57% of building activity per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. Recent construction comprises 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes.
The location has approximately 302 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate forecasts Bonnells Bay to gain 1,599 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Bonnells Bay
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Bonnells Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally
Five projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Trinity Point Mixed Use Development, Alliance Avenue and Wyee Road Intersection Upgrade (scheduled for completion in late 2023), Fishery Point Road and Morisset Park Road Intersection Upgrade (commencing in early 2024), and Morisset Place Strategy (approved in March 2021).
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone
The Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) is a critical network infrastructure project upgrading approximately 85km of existing 132kV sub-transmission lines between Kurri Kurri and Muswellbrook, and constructing two new substations at Sandy Creek (Muswellbrook) and Antiene (Singleton). The project delivers an additional 1GW of network transfer capacity, enabling connection of approximately 1.8GW of new renewable generation and storage. Ausgrid, as appointed network operator, is responsible for design, financing, construction and operation. The Project Deed with EnergyCo was signed in December 2025 following Australian Energy Regulator determination, and construction officially commenced on 27 February 2026. The REZ is the first in Australia to upgrade existing distribution poles and wires rather than build new transmission infrastructure. It will create 590 jobs during construction and 220 ongoing local positions, with full capacity expected by 2028.
High Speed Rail - Newcastle to Sydney (Line 1)
High Speed Rail Line 1 will connect Newcastle to Sydney on a new dedicated 194km rail line with trains capable of speeds up to 320 km/h on surface sections and 200 km/h in tunnels. Around 115km of the route will run through tunnels. The line will reduce travel time between Newcastle and Sydney to around one hour, with Central Coast trips of about 30 minutes. Six stations are proposed at central Newcastle (Broadmeadow), Lake Macquarie, the Central Coast (Gosford), Sydney Central, Parramatta and Western Sydney International Airport. Following release of the business case in early 2026, the project moved into a two-year Development Phase, with the Australian Government investing a further $230 million for design refinement, environmental and planning approvals, and corridor preservation. The first two major contract packages went to tender in 2026: Area Package 1 (around 35km of twin TBM tunnels, an underground station and associated civil works) and Trains, Systems and Systems Integration (supply of trains, design of all systems, rail depot and operations control centre). The Newcastle to Sydney section is estimated to cost around $61.2 billion by 2039, with a further $32 billion to extend to Western Sydney International Airport by 2042. The project is forecast to support up to 15,000 construction jobs annually at peak and add around $250 billion to the Australian economy over a 50-year appraisal period.
Trinity Point Mixed Use Development
A $665 million transformative waterfront development on Lake Macquarie designed by Koichi Takada Architects. The project received State Significant Development approval in August 2025 and features a 153-room luxury hotel, 160 high-end waterfront apartments, and two 300-seat signature restaurants. The precinct includes an expanded 188-berth marina, a wellness and longevity sanctuary, and a floating helipad. Aiming to be the first carbon-neutral development in NSW, it incorporates green roofs, solar technology, and extensive landscaped public boardwalks.
Cedar Mill Lake Macquarie
A 235 million dollar tourism, entertainment and event precinct planned for the 90 hectare former Morisset Country Club site. The original 2022 approval covered a 30,000 capacity outdoor amphitheatre alongside cafes, restaurants, a splash park, tourist accommodation and an over-55s lifestyle village. In early 2025 Winarch Group announced the project would be significantly downsized to a 10,000 capacity indoor arena and a separate 5,000 capacity outdoor stage, with the partially-built shell-like stage dome no longer part of the design. Construction has been idle for around 18 months and a revised development application has yet to be lodged, with Winarch citing delays to the Transport for NSW upgrade of Mandalong Road and Dora Street. In late April 2026 Lake Macquarie City Council voted 10-1 to investigate a potential compulsory acquisition of the site, with a feasibility memo expected within three months. Winarch has publicly recommitted to delivering the precinct.
Life & Home Bulky Goods Centre, Morisset
A landmark large format retail (LFR) development spanning 9 hectares with 30,000sqm of gross lettable area. Strategically located near the M1 Motorway, it features major national tenants including Aldi, Hungry Jacks, Oporto, Starbucks, Pet Quarters, and Repco. The precinct serves as a vital service hub for the growing Lake Macquarie region, incorporating over 700 car spaces and community facilities such as a medical centre and childcare.
Morisset Place Strategy
A long-term strategic plan by Lake Macquarie City Council to guide the future development and growth of Morisset as a regionally significant growth area. It includes a vision for the types, scale, and locations of development and services, supported by various studies (e.g., biodiversity, Aboriginal cultural heritage). A draft strategy is being prepared for public exhibition, which is expected to occur in 2026.
Newcastle-Sydney and Wollongong-Sydney Rail Line Upgrades
Program of upgrades to existing intercity rail corridors linking Newcastle-Central Coast-Sydney and Wollongong-Sydney to reduce travel times and improve reliability. Current scope includes timetable and service changes under the Rail Service Improvement Program, targeted network upgrades (signalling, power, station works) and the introduction of the Mariyung intercity fleet on the Central Coast & Newcastle Line, alongside Federal planning led by the High Speed Rail Authority for a dedicated Sydney-Newcastle high speed corridor.
Bawarramalang, Morisset Community Hub
A community hub combining versatile and adaptable community facilities, a new library, and commercial offerings in 4600 square metres of activated space to energise a new town square in Morisset. The concept design will inform the project's business case.
Employment
Employment performance in Bonnells Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally
Bonnells Bay has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% as of December 2021, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, the unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, 1.4 percentage points above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.
Workforce participation in Bonnells Bay was similar to Regional NSW's at 60.5% in December 2025. Census responses from 2021 showed that 25.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance (34.8%), construction (20.5%), and retail trade (17.4%).
In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.6% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to December 2025, Bonnells Bay's labour force increased by 1.8%, while employment declined by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Bonnells Bay's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch
AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Bonnells Bay has a median income among taxpayers of $44,615 and an average of $57,362. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $49,219 (median) and $63,282 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Bonnells Bay ranks modestly in terms of household, family, and personal incomes, between the 25th and 33rd percentiles. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.8% of the community (1,407 individuals), similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bonnells Bay, with only 83.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 32nd percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Bonnells Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Bonnells Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.1% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnells Bay was 40.4%, mirroring Regional NSW, with mortgaged properties at 33.0% and rented ones at 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment here was $1,820, surpassing the Regional NSW average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Bonnells Bay stood at $400, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Bonnells Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Bonnells Bay has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households account for 75.7% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 22.1% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Educational outcomes in Bonnells Bay fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment
The area's university qualification rate is 17.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 43.8% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.6%) and certificates (32.2%).
Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Bonnells Bay has 33 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 29 different routes that together facilitate 300 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 161 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outside Bonnells Bay, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 25.6%, work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.
The service frequency averages 42 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Bonnells Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts
Bonnells Bay faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older age cohorts, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~2,130 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.
The most common medical conditions are mental health issues (impacting 10.3% of residents) and arthritis (affecting 9.9%), while 60.2% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,051 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. National rankings for this age group are even higher than the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Bonnells Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics
Bonnells Bay had a cultural diversity below average, with 86.5% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 55.7%, similar to Regional NSW's 55.9%. Top ancestry groups were Australian (31.9%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (8.1%).
Notably, South Australian residents were overrepresented at 0.6% compared to regional 0.2%, while Australian Aboriginal was 4.4% (vs 4.6%) and Maltese 0.6% (vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Bonnells Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern
Bonnells Bay's median age is 42, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 13.0%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 9.4% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 11.4% to 13.0%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.5% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.1% to 9.4%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 12.8% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Bonnells Bay, with the strongest projected growth in the 35-44 cohort at 47%, adding 255 residents to reach 800.