Bonnells Bay

Bonnells Bay lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of Bonnells Bay's population was estimated at around 4,259 as of Feb 2026. This reflected an increase of 193 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,066. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,254 following examination of ABS's ERP data release in Jun 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This levelled out to a density ratio of 1,298 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Bonnells Bay demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%, outperforming its SA4 region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 48.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, though all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Forecasting demographic trends, Bonnells Bay is expected to experience significant population growth in its top quartile regionally, with projections indicating an increase of 1,723 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 40.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bonnells Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Bonnells Bay had around 20 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 104 homes. As of FY-26, six approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.1 new residents arrive per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply is lagging demand, which could lead to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $517,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $693,000 in commercial development approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Bonnells Bay records about 57% of the building activity per person and places among the 53rd percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. Recent construction comprises 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes.

The location has approximately 302 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts suggest Bonnells Bay will gain 1,718 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bonnells Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area, notably Trinity Point Mixed Use Development, Alliance Avenue and Wyee Road Intersection Upgrade (scheduled for completion in late 2021), Fishery Point Road and Morisset Park Road Intersection Upgrade (commencing Q3 2022), and Morisset Place Strategy (initiation planned for early 2023).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Bonnells Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Bonnells Bay has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.4%. Over the past year, it has shown relative employment stability.

As of December 2025, 1,992 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 4.9%, which is 0.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Bonnells Bay is broadly similar to Regional NSW's figure of 61.3%. According to Census responses, a high 25.6% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.6%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to December 2025, employment levels remained stable while labour force increased by 1.8%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.7 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bonnells Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Bonnells Bay's median taxpayer income is $44,615. The average income in the suburb is $57,362. Nationally, the median income is higher at $58,923 with an average of $76,135. In Regional NSW, the median income is $52,390 and the average is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimates for Bonnells Bay as of September 2025 would be approximately $48,568 (median) and $62,444 (average). The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Bonnells Bay between the 25th and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution shows that 32.8% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, with a total of 1,396 people in this bracket. This is similar to regional levels where 29.9% of residents fall within the same income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bonnells Bay, with only 83.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile nationally.

Bonnells Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bonnells Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.1% houses and 5.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnells Bay was 40.4%, similar to Regional NSW's rate. Mortgaged dwellings made up 33.0%, while rented dwellings accounted for 26.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,820, surpassing Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure stood at $400, higher than Regional NSW's $330 but lower than the national average of $375 for rents and $1,863 for mortgage repayments.

Bonnells Bay has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.7% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 32.3% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.3%, with lone person households at 22.1% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bonnells Bay fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 17.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 32.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bonnells Bay has 33 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 29 different routes that collectively facilitate 300 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 161 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 25.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 42 trips per day, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bonnells Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bonnells Bay faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high among both younger and older age cohorts, with mental health issues affecting 10.3% and arthritis impacting 9.9% of residents. Only approximately 50% of the population has private health cover, compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Sixty-point-two percent of residents claim to have no medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Twenty-three-point-seven percent of residents are aged 65 and over (1,009 people), higher than the national average.

Bonnells Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bonnells Bay had a cultural diversity below average, with 86.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, accounting for 55.7% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.9%), English (30.6%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notably, South Australian ethnicity was overrepresented at 0.6%, while Australian Aboriginal was slightly underrepresented at 4.4% compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese ethnicity was also slightly overrepresented at 0.6%.

Bonnells Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Bonnells Bay, with a median age of 41 years, has an age profile slightly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's national average of 38. The age group of 25-34 years is strongly represented at 13.3%, compared to Regional NSW. However, the 45-54 cohort is less prevalent at 9.1%. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 11.4% to 13.3%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has risen from 11.5% to 13.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 11.1% to 9.1%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 12.8% to 11.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Bonnells Bay's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 35 to 44 cohort projected to grow by 50%, adding 275 residents to reach a total of 829.