Dora Creek

Population growth drivers in Dora Creek are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Dora Creek's population is estimated at around 2,071 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 332 people (19.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,739 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,879, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 34 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 201 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Dora Creek's 19.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (5.7%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 90.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas across the nation is forecast. The Dora Creek statistical area (Lv2) is expected to expand by 904 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 38.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Dora Creek among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Dora Creek shows around 19 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 96 homes were approved, with another 13 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 3.3 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

The demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $373,000. In FY-26, there have been $4.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Dora Creek has slightly more development, with 23.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

However, construction activity has eased recently. Nationally, Dora Creek's level is substantially higher, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New building activity shows 73.0% standalone homes and 27.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 97.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 128 people per dwelling approval, Dora Creek shows characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, Dora Creek is expected to grow by 793 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Dora Creek has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Eraring Battery Energy Storage System, Cedar Mill Lake Macquarie, Trinity Point Marina & Resort Development, and Alliance Avenue and Wyee Road Intersection Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Dora Creek has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Dora Creek has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent in the area.

The unemployment rate is 4.8%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2% over the past year, as per AreaSearch's statistical data aggregation. As of September 2025910 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 4.8%, which is 1.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Dora Creek is lower at 51.4% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Notably, the area specializes in construction with an employment share 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 2.2% versus the regional average of 5.3%. The limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the discrepancy between Census working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, while labour force grew by 4.0%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, while the state's unemployment rate is at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate stands at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts for May-25 indicate a projected growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dora Creek's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Dora Creek's median income among taxpayers was $53,956 in financial year 2023, according to AreaSearch data aggregated from the latest ATO figures. The suburb's average income stood at $66,547 during this period. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 in the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Dora Creek as of September 2025 would be approximately $58,737 (median) and $72,443 (average). The 2021 Census data showed that household, family, and personal incomes in Dora Creek ranked modestly, between the 28th and 33rd percentiles. Income distribution revealed that 30.9% of locals (639 people) fell within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the broader area where 29.9% occupied this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.3% of income remained in Dora Creek, ranking at the 30th percentile nationally.

Dora Creek is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Dora Creek, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.4% houses and 2.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 89.7% houses and 10.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dora Creek stood at 47.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.5% and rented dwellings at 19.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,744, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,900. The median weekly rent was $380, equal to Non-Metro NSW's figure. Nationally, Dora Creek's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,744 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $380 against the national figure of $375.

Dora Creek features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.8 percent of all households, including 22.6 percent that are couples with children, 32.3 percent consisting of couples without children, and 11.5 percent made up of single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.2 percent, with lone person households at 27.1 percent and group households comprising 4.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Dora Creek faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.4% and certificates at 35.0%. A total of 23.1% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.9% in primary, 5.2% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 20 active stops operating within Dora Creek. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. They are served by 19 individual routes, offering 858 weekly passenger trips in total.

Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 367 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 122 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Dora Creek is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Dora Creek faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

The rate of private health cover in Dora Creek is approximately 53%, higher than the average SA2 area (~1,102 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.1% of residents) and mental health issues (8.8%). Conversely, 57.2% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 60.3% in Rest of NSW. Dora Creek has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.9% (515 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 21.9%. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Dora Creek is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Dora Creek's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 89.0% born in Australia, 91.5% being citizens, and 96.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 54.6%, close to Rest of NSW's 54.0%. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (30.2%), and Scottish (10.3%).

Notable differences existed in Macedonian (0.5% vs regional 0.2%), Australian Aboriginal (4.3% vs 4.5%), and Dutch (1.5% vs 1.1%) representation.

Dora Creek ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Dora Creek's median age is 50, higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group comprises 16.0% of Dora Creek's population, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 0-4 cohort makes up only 3.9%. Post-2021 Census, median age decreased by 1 year to 50 due to younger residents shifting in. Specifically, the 35-44 age group grew from 9.2% to 10.8%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 10.7% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort declined from 2.7% to 1.4%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 15.0% to 13.8%. By 2041, Dora Creek's population is projected to change significantly demographically. The 25-34 age cohort is forecasted to grow by 55%, adding 137 residents to reach a total of 386.