Heathcote - Waterfall

Heathcote - Waterfall is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Heathcote-Waterfall's population, as of Nov 2025, is approximately 6,730 people. This figure reflects a growth of 57 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6,673. The increase is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 6,717 in June 2024 and an additional 68 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 243 persons per square kilometer. Heathcote-Waterfall's growth rate since the Census, at 0.9%, is within 1.7 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Heathcote-Waterfall is projected to increase by 272 persons to 2041, reflecting a total growth of 3.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Heathcote - Waterfall, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Heathcote - Waterfall has recorded approximately 25 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY-26, seven approvals have been recorded. The population decline in recent years suggests that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new homes are being built at an average value of $680,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. This financial year, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Heathcote - Waterfall records elevated construction activity, with 18.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. New building activity comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting affordability and suitability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a significant shift from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 689 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. By 2041, Heathcote - Waterfall is projected to grow by 254 residents (AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Heathcote - Waterfall has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Heathcote Apartments Development, Engadine Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Hermitage Apartments, and Waratah Road Townhouses. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Heathcote - Waterfall significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Heathcote-Waterfall has a skilled workforce with significant representation from essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 2.5%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year as of June 2025.

There are 3,747 residents in work, and the unemployment rate is 1.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 62.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, finance & insurance has lower representation at 4.5% versus the regional average of 7.3%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1%, labour force by 3.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% during the same period, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data for NSW to Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 estimate growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heathcote-Waterfall's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Heathcote - Waterfall SA2 had a high national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2022. Its median taxpayer income was $61,205 and average income stood at $74,378, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $68,923 and $83,757 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Heathcote - Waterfall ranked highly nationally, between the 73rd and 80th percentiles. Income distribution data showed that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominated with 30.0% of residents (2,019 people), mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupied this bracket. Heathcote - Waterfall demonstrated considerable affluence with 34.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounted for 14.8% of income while strong earnings ranked residents within the 80th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Heathcote - Waterfall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heathcote-Waterfall's dwelling structure in 2016 showed 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings, compared to Sydney metro's 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership was 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.1% and rented ones at 12.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,513, while the median weekly rent was $520. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Heathcote - Waterfall features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 77.9 percent of all households, composed of 39.7 percent couples with children, 27.6 percent couples without children, and 9.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.1 percent, with lone person households at 20.9 percent and group households comprising 1.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Heathcote - Waterfall exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (29.6%). Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Heathcote-Waterfall has 57 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 16 routes offering a total of 2,617 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to these stops is excellent, with residents typically located 130 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 373 trips per day, resulting in about 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heathcote - Waterfall is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Heathcote's health faces significant challenges with common conditions prevalent across all ages but somewhat more so among older cohorts. Approximately 56% (~3,802 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and mental health issues (8.2%). About 65.3% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% in Greater Sydney. Heathcote has 21.7% residents aged 65 and over (1,462 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 18.8%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to presenting challenges.

Heathcote - Waterfall is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Heathcote-Waterfall's cultural diversity is below average, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 58.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.9%. The top three ancestral groups are Australian (31.4%), English (31.2%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Maltese (0.7% vs regional 0.8%), South African (0.5% vs 0.4%), and Welsh (0.6% vs 0.6%) groups have higher representations than the regional averages.

Heathcote - Waterfall's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Heathcote-Waterfall is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The percentage of the population aged 85 and above is 4.8%, compared to Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, the percentage of the population aged 25-34 is 8.2%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the percentage of the population aged 15-24 has grown from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the percentage aged 25-34 has declined from 9.6% to 8.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Heathcote-Waterfall, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 47% (227 people), reaching a total of 711 from 483. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 88% of the total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the age groups of 5-14 and 25-34 are expected to experience population declines.