Heathcote - Waterfall
Statistical Area - sa2

Heathcote - Waterfall is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of August 2025, Heathcote-Waterfall's population is approximately 6,725, a rise of 52 people since the 2021 Census which recorded 6,673 residents. This increase, representing a 0.8% growth rate, was inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,712 in June 2024 and an additional 70 validated new addresses post-census. The population density stands at 243 persons per square kilometer. The area's 0.8% growth since census is within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.5%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind recent population gains. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Heathcote-Waterfall is expected to increase by 272 persons to 2041, marking a total growth of 3.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Heathcote - Waterfall, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Heathcote-Waterfall has recorded approximately 16 residential property approvals per year. Development approval data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows a total of 84 approvals across the past five financial years, ranging from FY20 to FY25, with an additional three approved in FY26 so far. Despite recent population decline, new supply appears to have kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice. The average construction value for new homes is $680,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $1.4 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Comparing Heathcote-Waterfall's development activity to Greater Sydney shows somewhat elevated construction levels, with 18.0% more approvals per person over the past five years. However, this rate has moderated in recent periods. Nationally, development activity is lower, reflecting market maturity and possible constraints. New developments consist of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% medium to high-density housing, shifting from the area's current 76.0% houses. This trend likely reflects decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 689, indicating a quiet development environment. Population forecasts project an increase of 259 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Heathcote - Waterfall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 12 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Heathcote Apartments Development, Engadine Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Hermitage Apartments, and Waratah Road Townhouses. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Heathcote - Waterfall demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Heathcote-Waterfall features a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.5% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year.

In June 2025, 3747 residents were in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was at 62.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, finance & insurance has lower representation at 4.5% versus the regional average of 7.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, labour force by 3.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.6%, labour force expanded by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National unemployment was 4.5%, with national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest potential future demand within Heathcote-Waterfall. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Heathcote-Waterfall's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Heathcote - Waterfall's median income among taxpayers was $61,205 and average income stood at $74,378 in financial year 2022, according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of March 2025 would be approximately $67,693 (median) and $82,262 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Heathcote - Waterfall rank between the 74th and 80th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 30.0% of residents (2,017 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 weekly earnings bracket, similar to regional levels at 30.9%. Notably, 34.5% of residents earn over $3,000 per week, indicative of considerable affluence and supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 14.8% of income, with strong earnings placing residents in the 81st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Heathcote - Waterfall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heathcote - Waterfall's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership was higher at 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.1% and rented ones at 12.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,513, below Sydney metro's $2,600. Weekly rent was $520, compared to Sydney metro's $483. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Heathcote - Waterfall features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 77.9% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households making up 20.9% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Heathcote - Waterfall exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.9% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 29.6%. Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.4% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

The area's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,095 students. They exhibit typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1034) with balanced educational opportunities, comprising three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that there are currently 57 active transport stops operating within the Heathcote-Waterfall area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 16 individual routes providing passenger trips weekly. The total number of weekly passenger trips across these routes is 2,617.

The accessibility of transport in this region is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 130 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 373 trips per day, which equates to approximately 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heathcote - Waterfall is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Heathcote faces significant health challenges with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but more so among older residents. Approximately 56% (~3799 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 60%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.6%) and mental health issues (8.2%). 65.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 70.6% in Greater Sydney. Heathcote has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (21.7%, or 1461 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 18.8%. Health outcomes for seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

Heathcote - Waterfall is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Heathcote-Waterfall was found to have low cultural diversity, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 58.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.9%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.4%), English (31.2%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Maltese (0.7% vs regional 0.8%), South African (0.5% vs 0.4%), and Welsh (0.6% vs 0.6%) were overrepresented compared to the region.

Heathcote - Waterfall hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Heathcote-Waterfall is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The proportion of people aged 85 and over is 4.8%, compared to Greater Sydney. Conversely, the 25-34 age group makes up 8.2% of the population in Heathcote-Waterfall. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.5% to 12.7%, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 9.6% to 8.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Heathcote-Waterfall. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 47%, reaching 711 people from a starting point of 482. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and over will account for 87% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 5-14 and 25-34 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.