Heathcote - Waterfall
Statistical Area - sa2

Heathcote - Waterfall is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Heathcote-Waterfall's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 6,725. This figure represents a growth of 52 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 6,673. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates; the resident population was 6,712 in June 2024 and there were 70 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a density ratio of 243 persons per square kilometer. Heathcote-Waterfall's growth rate since the census, at 0.8%, is within 1.7 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth (2.5%), indicating competitive fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 (base year 2021) are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Heathcote-Waterfall is expected to increase by 272 persons to 2041, representing a total growth of 3.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Heathcote - Waterfall, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Heathcote - Waterfall has recorded approximately 25 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 126 homes. As of FY26, 5 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, with new supply likely keeping pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new homes are built at an average value of $680,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY26, $1.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential nature.

Comparing Heathcote - Waterfall to Greater Sydney, construction is elevated by 18.0% per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values, although development activity has moderated recently. New building activity comprises 33.0% standalone homes and 67.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and addressing changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 689 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. By 2041, Heathcote - Waterfall is projected to grow by 259 residents.

Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand readily, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Heathcote - Waterfall has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects include Heathcote Apartments Development, Engadine Central Shopping Centre Redevelopment, Hermitage Apartments, and Waratah Road Townhouses. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Heathcote - Waterfall significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Heathcote-Waterfall has a skilled workforce with prominent representation from essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.5% as of June 2025.

The area has seen an employment growth of 3.1% over the past year. As of June 2025, 3747 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.7% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation stands at 62.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Construction employment levels are particularly notable, at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, finance & insurance shows lower representation at 4.5% versus the regional average of 7.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1%, labour force increased by 3.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Heathcote-Waterfall's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Heathcote - Waterfall has a high national income level based on AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers is $61,205 and the average income stands at $74,378, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Projecting forward using Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $67,693 (median) and $82,262 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Heathcote - Waterfall rank highly nationally, between the 74th and 80th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows that 30.0% of residents (2,017 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. The area demonstrates affluence with 34.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 14.8% of income while strong earnings place residents within the 81st percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Heathcote - Waterfall is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Heathcote-Waterfall's dwelling structure in its latest Census showed 76.1% houses and 23.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership stood at 41.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.1% and rented ones at 12.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,513, below Sydney metro's $2,600. Median weekly rent was $520, higher than Sydney metro's $483. Nationally, Heathcote-Waterfall's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national average of $375.

Heathcote - Waterfall features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.9% of all households, including 39.7% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 22.1%, with lone person households at 20.9% and group households making up 1.1%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Heathcote - Waterfall exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 24.4%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. This situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (29.6%).

Educational participation is high at 29.8%, including 10.4% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. Heathcote-Waterfall's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 1,095 students as of the latest data. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1034) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 3 primary and 1 secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 57 active transport stops operating within Heathcote - Waterfall. These include a mix of train and bus stops serviced by 16 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 2,617 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 130 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 373 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 45 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Heathcote - Waterfall is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Heathcote's Waterfall faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across all age groups, but particularly so among older cohorts. Approximately 56% of its total population (~3799 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 60%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.6 and 8.2% of residents respectively. However, 65.3% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.6%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.7%, with 1461 people falling into this category, compared to Greater Sydney's 18.8%. Health outcomes among seniors in the area require more attention than those of the broader population.

Heathcote - Waterfall is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Heathcote-Waterfall, surveyed in Aug 2016, had low cultural diversity: 87.7% born in Australia, 93.5% citizens, 95.0% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion (58.6%), slightly below Greater Sydney's 61.9%. Top ancestral groups were Australian (31.4%), English (31.2%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Maltese (0.7%) South African (0.5%) and Welsh (0.6%) had higher representation than regional averages.

Heathcote - Waterfall hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Heathcote - Waterfall is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The percentage of the population aged 85 and over is 4.8%, compared to Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, the proportion of people aged 25-34 is lower at 8.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the age group of 15 to 24 has increased from 11.5% to 12.7% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 9.6% to 8.2%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Heathcote - Waterfall. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 47%, adding 228 people, reaching a total of 711 from the previous figure of 482. Notably, the combined population aged 65 and over will account for 87% of the total population growth in the area, reflecting its aging demographic profile. In contrast, the age groups of 5 to 14 and 25 to 34 are expected to experience population declines.