Barden Ridge

Barden Ridge has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Nov 2025, the population of Barden Ridge is estimated at around 4125 people. This reflects a decrease of 4 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4129 people. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 4121. This level of population results in a density ratio of 736 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages across locations assessed by AreaSearch. While Barden Ridge experienced a slight decline since the census, the broader SA3 area grew by 2.6%, indicating divergent trends within the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 59% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Barden Ridge are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, using a base year of 2021. According to these aggregations, the suburb is expected to increase by 84 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall growth rate of approximately 1.9% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Barden Ridge is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Barden Ridge had around 14 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years up to FY26. This totals an estimated 70 homes. So far in FY26, one approval has been recorded. The area's population decline has led to adequate housing supply relative to demand, maintaining a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $847,000, indicating a focus on the premium market. This year, $52,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Barden Ridge has similar development levels per person, preserving market equilibrium. However, recent periods have seen moderated development activity.

Nationally, it is lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 88% standalone homes and 12% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1029 people. Future projections show Barden Ridge adding 79 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand favourably for buyers while potentially enabling growth exceeding forecasts.

Barden Ridge has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to affect this area. Notable projects include Engadine High School Upgrade, M6 Stage 2, Rail Service Improvement Program - T4 Illawarra & Eastern Suburbs Line, and Community Infrastructure Strategic Plan 2050. The following list outlines those anticipated to be most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Barden Ridge places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Barden Ridge has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.5%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.8% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, there are 2,595 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Barden Ridge stands at 70.8%, surpassing Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, construction has a high level of specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, finance & insurance has limited presence at 5.4%, compared to the regional figure of 7.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in Sep-22, employment increased by 3.8% alongside labour force growth of 3.7%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, along with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts for Sep-22 suggest that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Barden Ridge's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Barden Ridge's median income among taxpayers was $64,041 according to AreaSearch data based on ATO figures for financial year 2022. The average income stood at $84,376 in the same period. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. As of September 2025, estimated median and average incomes are approximately $72,117 and $95,016, accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Barden Ridge's household incomes rank at the 97th percentile with a weekly income of $3,134. Income analysis shows that 33.5% of the community falls into the $4000+ earnings band (1,381 individuals), unlike metropolitan patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 band dominates at 30.9%. The high proportion of residents earning above $3,000/week indicates strong economic capacity in the locality. After housing costs, residents retain 88.9% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power and placing the area's SEIFA income ranking in the 9th decile.

Barden Ridge is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Barden Ridge, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 92.2% houses and 7.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Barden Ridge was 43.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.6% and rented ones at 5.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,641, while the median weekly rent figure was $685. Nationally, Barden Ridge's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Barden Ridge features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 92.1% of all households, including 55.2% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 7.9%, with lone person households at 7.3% and group households making up 0.7%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Barden Ridge shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 26.8%, considerably lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 26.3%. Educational participation is high, with 29.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.2% in secondary, 9.0% in primary, and 5.8% in tertiary education.

Shire Christian School and Lucas Heights Community School serve a total of 1,730 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1076). Both schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity. It functions as an education hub with 41.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 17.8, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Barden Ridge shows that there are currently 29 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 31 individual routes providing service to the area. The combined weekly passenger trips across all routes amount to 578.

Residential accessibility to these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 164 meters from their nearest stop. On average, there are 82 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Barden Ridge is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Barden Ridge has above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population.

However, this prevalence is higher than the national average among older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 60% of the total population (2,484 people) have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, affecting 7.8 and 7.1% of residents respectively. A majority, 71.4%, reported being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over (16.7%; 688 people) than Greater Sydney (18.8%).

Barden Ridge ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Barden Ridge, surveyed in June 2016, had a cultural diversity below average with 84.3% of its population born in Australia, 96.0% being citizens, and 87.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 69.6%, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (27.0%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (8.4%).

Notable differences included Macedonian (1.1% vs regional 0.8%), Maltese (1.4% vs 0.8%), and Lebanese (1.2% vs 1.1%) groups.

Barden Ridge hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Barden Ridge's median age is 41 years, notably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. Locally, those aged 55-64 comprise 15.6%, exceeding the Greater Sydney average, while those aged 25-34 make up 8.1%, below the regional norm. Post-2021 Census, residents aged 75-84 increased from 2.9% to 4.6%, and those aged 65-74 rose from 9.2% to 10.4%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group decreased from 9.4% to 8.1%, and the 55-64 cohort fell from 16.6% to 15.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Barden Ridge's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 71%, adding 135 residents to reach 325. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 77% of population growth, while declines are anticipated for the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups.